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| Blue and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
The southern Adelaide electorate of Boothby covers coastal suburbs from Brighton south to Marino, extending inland to the edge of the coastal plain at Myrtle Bank and the hills at Belair, Eden Hills, Bellevue Heights and Flagstaff Hill. The seat’s Liberal lean is softened by the area around the defunct Tonsley Park Mitsubishi plant, the only part of the electorate with below average incomes and above average ethnic diversity. It has existed without interruption since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, at which time it was landlocked and extended north into the eastern suburbs. Coastal areas were acquired when the neighbouring electorate of Hawker was abolished in 1993.
Boothby was held by Labor for the first eight years of its existence, and it remained a contested seat until the Menzies government came to power in 1949. This began a long-term trend to the Liberals which peaked in the 1970s, when margins were consistently in double digits. The seat’s member from 1981 until 1996 was Steele Hall, former Premier and figurehead of the early 1970s breakaway Liberal Movement. A trend to Labor became evident after the election of the Howard government in 1996, with successive swings recorded over the next five elections. The swing that occurred amid the otherwise poor result of the 2004 election was particularly encouraging for Labor, and raised their hopes at both the 2007 and 2010 elections. On the former occasion, Right powerbrokers recruited what they imagined to be a star candidate in Nicole Cornes, a minor Adelaide celebrity and wife of local football legend Graham Cornes. However, Cornes was damaged by a series of disastrous and heavily publicised media performances, and was only able to manage a swing of 2.4% compared with a statewide result of 6.8%. Perhaps reflecting a suppressed vote for Labor, the seat swung 2.2% in their favour at the 2010 election, compared with a statewide result of 0.8%. However, that still Labor 0.8% short of a win they had desperately hoped for to buttress losses in Queensland and New South Wales. With the seat off Labor’s target list in 2013, Southcott enjoyed a comfortable victory on the back of a 6.5% swing, which was 1.0% above the statewide par. Labor’s candidate in both 2010 and 2013 was Annabel Digance, who is now running in the seat of Elder for the March 15 state election.
Boothby has been held since 1996 by Andrew Southcott, who first won preselection at the age of 26 ahead of Robert Hill, the leading factional moderate in the Senate. The Right had reportedly built up strength in local branches with a view to unseating its bitter rival Steele Hall, and turned its guns on Hill as a “surrogate” when denied by Hall’s retirement. Unlike Hill, who went on to become government leader in the Senate, Southcott has led a fairly low-key parliamentary career, taking until after the 2007 election defeat to win promotion to Shadow Minister for Employment Participation, Apprenticeships and Training. After standing by Malcolm Turnbull in the December 2009 leadership vote, Southcott was demoted by a victorious Tony Abbott to parliamentary secretary, a position he has retained in government. Southcott’s preselection at the 2010 election was challenged by former state party president Chris Moriarty, following disquiet in the party over his fundraising record. However, Moriarty was heavily defeated, his challenge reported losing steam when Kevin Rudd’s first bid to return to the Labor leadership came to a head in February 2012.
[“But I want to say as well that I take responsibility for other factors this evening as the LNP Leader and as Premier.
“We understand that many of you feel that we perhaps haven’t listened enough, that we have perhaps moved too quickly, that we haven’t consulted you.
“I pledge this evening to listen to that message – we hear it.
“We will observe it, and we will do things differently as we go forward.]
Bet you can’t Mr 5.7% Premier
Boothby: a seat the ALP could have easily won in 2007 and 2010 had they been better organised!
ugh . . . too early in the morning for a seat that’s mostly painted blue.
Morning all. Further to Ruawake, Campbell Newman cannot distance himself from the Redcliffe byelection thrashing. He campaigned personally in the seat,, and got this reception.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-22/campbell-newman-set-upon-by-protesters-at-redcliffe-poll-booth/5277326
Interesting (albeit very small scale) use of pumped storage plus wind with diesel as backup on El Hierro in the Canary Islands off the coast of Spain.
http://ow.ly/tMj0q
The pumped storage makes use of a volcanic crater for its lower reservoir and should come online on El Hierro this year.
Apparently El Hierro started off with the idea of self-sufficiency — they import and burn a lot of dries to run their desal plants — but now they are going to cut this very sharply and aim for full energy self-sufficiency. Their fleet of vehicles will go electric and get charged from the near carbon-neutral grid and they are going the PVand solar water heating route.
[ruawake
….Bet you can’t Mr 5.7% Premier]
If you are calling him Mr 5.7% Premier because his opposition only won 5.7% of the seats at the last election, you are wrong…..it was 7.9% (7/89).
That will change Mod in a big way at the next Qld election.
Agreed….but not likely to change enough to change the Premier.
With all this facilitation of downsizing the manufacturing side of the economy, there is a method to the madness of the Abbott Government.
Conditions will soon apply where labour will be glad to accept reduced remuneration and lowered conditions at the employers’ whim. As Tony Abbott has said, “a bad boss is better than no boss!”
Sing along with Tones as he points out the reality of a carpet-bagger economy.
http://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/carpetbagger
Cue: “The Carpet Crawlers”, by Phil Collins and Genesis.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xr_Y6Gjmm3Q
The baggers brew up their schemes in their blue bedecked boardrooms
The sweet scent of seduction stimulating their m.o.
They’re moving in time to the chance of a killing
Where their practiced eyes are twinkling, eyeing the big dough
:- (
The carpet baggers heed their calling:
“We’ve got to get in to pig out
We’ve got to get in to pig out
We’ve got to get in to pig out”
:- (
There’s only one direction in the faces that I see
It’s inward to their wallets, where their hearts care to be
Like in the Merchant of Venice, Shylocks one, two and three
They’re drawn by my magnet, guided democracy
:- (
The carpet baggers heed their calling:
“We’ve got to get in to pig out
We’ve got to get in to pig out
We’ve got to get in to pig out”
:- (
Well-manicured conmen are waiting for their chance
To take advantage of the day, when making things goes down the spout
Opportunity beckons, their profits will enhance
It’s the bottom of a staircase that spirals out of sight
:- (
The carpet baggers heed their calling:
“We’ve got to get in to pig out
We’ve got to get in to pig out
We’ve got to get in to pig out”
:- (
Farewell to Ford n’ Holden, and alas to Ardmona
We’ll see you on the other side, when the fire sale really starts
The unions will be crushed, no workers will be donors
It’ll be like an Ol’ Dixieland slave-mart
:- (
The carpet baggers heed their calling:
“We’ve got to get in to pig out
We’ve got to get in to pig out
We’ve got to get in to pig out”
His own constituents may very well do that.
Think William you had better tell people about this thread , people are still posting on the old one, including me himi alertd me
Good Morning
Posting from last thread. Interesting indeed from a Murdoch publication
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/manus-could-close-investigation-finds-immigration-department-failings-on-nauru/story-fni0cx12-1226834680809
Everything@6
That result was a serious indictment of the electoral system in Queensland. Getting 8% of the seats having received (from memory) about 26% of the two party preferred vote is a major fairness issue.
himi
OMFG… This vacuuos waffle from Hockey in his presser about the G20 is sickening and embarrasing.
And I nearly choked when he mentioned ‘digitisation’ whilst his mate Turnbull is screwing our communication future.
Gary and everything
I think that Qld is VERY volatile and could swing just as harshly against the Libs as they did Labor. These are the issues that I think are affecting voters:
1. Hospitals – remember that under JOH Qld still had a first hospital system PUBLIC system. There is real fear about its loss
2. Bikie laws – 10% in Redcliffe for the bikie guy. That is actually pretty bloody huge for a single issue candidate, given we can assume that 80% of the greens (civil liberty issue) and 50% of the Labor voters hate the laws
3. The economy is in trouble since mining is in trouble
4. Electricity princes have gone up and it is not being sheeted home to the Carbon Tax
6. Public Transport is barely affordable and indeed prohibitive if you are part time on a low wage – ie PT might cost you $15.50 or your first hour or more of your shift.
7. Public service cuts have made many small businesses fail in inner city areas
Oh, this article will make ModLib very sad…
Broadbent admits he’s the only moderate Liberal left.
[”I’m not silent,” he said. ”There may be only one left, but I’m not silent. The government knows where I stand…]
However, Fraser thinks Broadbent isn’t even that —
[Former prime minister Malcolm Fraser, however, has little sympathy for MPs who do not speak out on matters of conscience.
Of Broadbent’s reticence to speak out against events on Manus, Fraser says: ”Well, he doesn’t therefore think the principle is worth supporting.”]
Troeth says:
[”And I just think people are not willing to jeopardise their future career for an issue that isn’t in your face here in the electorate…]
So much for the lion-hearted moderates willing to put their careers on the line for principle.
As with so much of ModLib’s rosy view of the Liberals, her judgements are made on the basis of what was, not what is or will be.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-partys-moderate-voice-goes-silent-under-tony-abbotts-leadership-20140222-3391c.html#ixzz2u5YK3kGA
[ Acerbic Conehead
Posted Sunday, February 23, 2014 at 8:09 am | Permalink
Conditions will soon apply where labour will be glad to accept reduced remuneration and lowered conditions at the employers’ whim. ]
Yep – without unions too, thats what abbott wants,
himi
[That result was a serious indictment of the electoral system in Queensland. ]
Exactly. Which is why it is (a) wrong of people to use the number of seats Labor holds in Queensland as an indicator of anything to do with Labor’s popularity or otherwise (they can use the primary vote, of course) and (b) perfectly possible that the next election could produce another disproportionate result (for one party or the other).
Himi
[That result was a serious indictment of the electoral system in Queensland. Getting 8% of the seats having received (from memory) about 26% of the two party preferred vote is a major fairness issue.]
If ever there were a case for proportional representation, QLD would be it.
Sometimes I despair…
This is a tweet I received as part of a climate change debate —
[ Re: hottest 10 years argument. I was the tallest in all 10 of my last 10 years!]
When I asked what that analogy had to do with — well, anything really — I got this response:
[Shows how meaningless the ‘330 straight months of above avg temp’ stat is.]
I hope the guy’s American, so I can blame their education system.
[ CO2 @MyFirstCousin 9h
Taxpayers are footing a more-than $73,400 nightly bill for detention centre staff. http://www.smh.com.au/national/133-million-hotel-bill-for-manus-island-staff-20140222-338wn.html … Better up the pension age then.
]
Someone has noticed, this madness is costing gold as well as lives.
Zoomster @20
That is weapons grade Stoopid.
Zoomster
[I hope the guy’s American, so I can blame their education system.]
Cognitive dissonance can blot out the impact of even good education. People who fear change — particularly in cases where it is seen as existential — often reach for CD as the most potent salve.
Laurie Oakes: LET’s not beat about the bush. Tony Abbott tells lies – & LET’s not beat about the bush. SS Morriscum tells bigger lies
So given my post @ 12 does Manus closing strike a blow to Abbott’s AS policy as bad as the drownings off Christmas Island did to Labor’s?
Oops lost the context
[
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans 39m
Laurie Oakes: LET’s not beat about the bush. Tony Abbott tells lies – & LET’s not beat about the bush. SS Morriscum tells bigger lies
]
I see I have had a dramatic effect on you with my comments zoomster! :devil:
You have names a small number of Liberal moderates and argued that they are few in number and fewer now than in the past.
Can you name a single ALP MP that has stood up to defend refugee and asylum seekers?
One?
Did ALP MPs call for an end to offshore processing when they were in government and there were riots?
Fran Barlow@19
I don’t know – proportional representation always seems to me to be somewhat dependant on having a nice big sample size, and having enough seats to apportion representation widely. It might work at a national level, but at a state level it seems like it’d be pulling from a little too small a pool.
Maybe that’s not really an issue, but it does make me a bit uncomfortable.
himi
himi
The answer to your small sample size. Tasmania. Works there.
“@danielhurstbne: Pyne tells Sky #Redcliffe voters sent message “you’re not immune from the democratic processes..we the ppl are still sovereign” #qldpol”
@tveedercom: Now, follow the live transcript of this mornings #Insiders http://t.co/eJAGxs1qo0 (via @ABCNews24)
Morning
As posted by BK at other thread
2321
BK
Posted Sunday, February 23, 2014 at 7:33 am | PERMALINK
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
These clowns should never have been let near public schoolchildren!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-23/biblezine-complaint-sparks-probe-into-religious-educator/5277766
Morriscum late on Saturday night admits he is a misleading flake!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-admits–information-he-gave-on-manus-riot-was-wrong-20140222-339hs.html
Here’s Bianca Hall’s take on it.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/disquiet-at-aid-without-liability-20140222-338l7.html
Turnbull puts his foot down and this is what hapens!
http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/mobiles/travellers-to-pay-telstra-up-to-500-more-20140222-3398x.html
I hope Hadley has a nice week off.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ray-hadley-off-air-for-a-week-after-application-for-avo-20140222-338zg.html
What a surprise.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/modelling-finds-gp-fee-no-moneysaver-20140222-338zd.html
Abbott has subjugated all vestiges of decency and moderation in his party.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-partys-moderate-voice-goes-silent-under-tony-abbotts-leadership-20140222-3391c.html
Sinodinis is playing with fire here.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/beware-of-getting-burnt-in-the-financial-services-boilerroom-culture-20140221-337kc.html
This is what Cathy Wilcox thinks it has all come to.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
2327
BK
Posted Sunday, February 23, 2014 at 7:49 am | PERMALINK
And from the Land of the Free –
A Tea Party nutter joins in the Kentucky Senate race.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/02/22/pack-babies-grab-old-ladies-everyones-longer-safe-kentucky/
All of the Repugs’ Obamacare “horror stories” seem to get debunked.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/02/21/1279312/-Are-there-any-real-Obamacare-horror-nbsp-stories
Bill Maher on “personalised news” that is becoming more prevalent on the internet.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/mahers-new-rule-hearing-stories-that-confirm-your-beliefs-isnt-news-its-fox-news/
Bill Maher with some funny masturbation pamphlets.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/22/bill-maher-overcoming-masturbation_n_4838140.html
Melissa Parkes.
Notice how the party promoted her, not punished her.
“@GreenJ: indeed gerard, our prisons are routinely overrun by locals … inmates clubbed to death.”
ModLib
I will also point out that the cultures of the parties are different.
One says you can say what you like up until the caucus votes, and then you must accept the majority decision. MPs accept those rules on preselection.
Another one claims to be the party of individual conscience, where MPs can speak out without fear or favour and can cross the floor with impunity.
Huge difference.
Ha ha 🙂 Are we supposed to know who she is?
What did she say?
[As with so much of ModLib’s rosy view of the Liberals, her judgements are made on the basis of what was, not what is or will be.]
Much more of a ‘might have been’ rather than a ‘was’.
Mod
[Ha ha 🙂 Are we supposed to know who she is?]
Are you seriously asking this question? You’re the one that claims no-one in Labor speaks up and now you’re admitting to not actually knowing whether they do or not!
[zoomster
Posted Sunday, February 23, 2014 at 9:10 am | PERMALINK
ModLib
I will also point out that the cultures of the parties are different.
One says you can say what you like up until the caucus votes, and then you must accept the majority decision. MPs accept those rules on preselection.
Another one claims to be the party of individual conscience, where MPs can speak out without fear or favour and can cross the floor with impunity.
Huge difference.]
That is true, but it is not an excuse.
If you entered politics because you believed in stuff, then show that belief.
If you entered politics to advance your career, then keep on doing what you are doing.
Morning all.
[The Coalition’s hold on power in Victoria could be under threat after a National Party MP was charged with firearms offences.
Mildura MP Peter Crisp is due to face court in May over a number of charges including the possession of a prohibited firearm and the possession of guns without a licence.
He was charged after reporting the theft of three guns from his farm in New South Wales.
If convicted, Mr Crisp would be ineligible to sit in Parliament, which would force a by-election and could threaten the Coalition’s ability to govern.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-22/victorian-mp-charged-with-firearms-offences/5277350
Too many ‘ifs’ and ‘coulds’, but still interesting to see how this progresses.
zoomster
…One says you can say what you like up until the caucus votes, and then you must accept the majority decision. MPs accept those rules on preselection.]
….and where are the views up until the caucus votes then????
[Another one claims to be the party of individual conscience, where MPs can speak out without fear or favour and can cross the floor with impunity.]
Yes, the Liberal way is better, isn’t it?
[DisplayName
Posted Sunday, February 23, 2014 at 9:14 am | PERMALINK
Mod
Ha ha 🙂 Are we supposed to know who she is?
Are you seriously asking this question? You’re the one that claims no-one in Labor speaks up and now you’re admitting to not actually knowing whether they do or not!]
Well if you know her and what she said so well, pray tell…..
“@justinbarbour: “If Scott Morrison thinks that a written statement at 9PM on a Saturday night is transparent, then he is wrong” @bowenchris #insiders”
Mod
[Yes, the Liberal way is better, isn’t it?]
Was.
[The Prime Minister has deflected questions over the rollout of the National Broadband Network in Tasmania, after days of media scrutiny over the issue.
Tony Abbott was in Hobart to help Mr Hodgman campaign ahead of the election.
The Federal Government is planning to include the old copper network in the rollout of the National Broadband Network in Tasmania from 2015.
The State Opposition Leader Will Hodgman has said the issue could cost the Liberals the state election on March 15.
Tony Abbott was in Hobart to help Mr Hodgman campaign ahead of the election and said the NBN will be delivered in Tasmania.
“What Will and I have discussed is the importance of actually getting the NBN happening,” Mr Abbott said.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-22/tony-abbott-deflects-nbn-questions-on-his-visit-to-tasmania-to-/5277428?section=tas
Of course, the aim is to get through the state election without alerting voters to the fact they’re about to be screwed over. Once the election is done and dusted, they can do whatever they like.
Just as the govt made all kinds of assurances about the GP co-payment before the Griffith by-election, only to announce the very same thing once the by-election was over.
Mod
[Well if you know her and what she said so well, pray tell…..]
Huh? We’re talking about your knowledge of people speaking up.
I had simply taken your braggadocio on the matter along with my own lack of recollection of anyone speaking up recently – the latter I consider insufficient by itself – that they hadn’t. Now I find out you’ve just been making it up and don’t actually know.
The more fool me.
Everything
[If you entered politics because you believed in stuff, then show that belief.
If you entered politics to advance your career, then keep on doing what you are doing.]
and exactly the same argument can be made against every member of the Liberal party, without the same excuse.
By the way. Even if she didn’t speak up, you don’t actually know!
Evidence from you:
[Ha ha 🙂 Are we supposed to know who she is?]
Someone who is always calling out others on using terms like “always” and “never” and questioning whether they’re exaggerating should really be more careful themselves.