The slump in Labor support recorded in the year’s first Nielsen poll has been exactly enough to erase a two-party lead in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which it had enjoyed since mid-December. This was despite a strong result for Labor from Essential Research, which appears to be maintaining its curious status as a lagged indicator. On the state breakdowns, the biggest movement is in Victoria, where Nielsen had Labor’s lead at a well below-par 52-48. This has helped cut the Victorian swing on BludgerTrack from 7.9% to 4.3%, and reduced Labor’s projected seat gain from five to two. Elsewhere, Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The overall projection is now for a Coalition absolute majority, providing another indication that the BludgerTrack model considers the electoral terrain to be weighted in the Coalition’s favour. Leadership ratings from Nielsen provided further evidence of diminishing support for Bill Shorten, who is now only fractionally ahead of Tony Abbott on net approval. Abbott’s lead of about 10% as preferred prime minister has nonetheless been stable since early December, as has his slightly negative net approval rating. Full results as always on the sidebar.
To the question on how the LNP are doing federally we should be using the September election result as the benchmark. Using this tells us that the LNP is trending downwards (confirmed by Bludgertrack showing a -13 seats result currently)
[Even when Mr Newman posed with a baby, some yelled “child abuse”.]
Wow, that’s pretty appalling.
Psephos @1937 ALP will win it in a canter. LNP, unsuprisingly given the reason for the bye-election, ghas never been in the hunt.
ALP will have 8 (eight) seats. Yay!
guytaur
You either cannot read or have very poor comprehension.
Hopeless.
poroti:
He doesn’t look like a happy camper does he?
Sorry if already posted…
Chris Hartcher dumps on Abbott
“If there were a federal version of NSW’s Independent Commission Against Corruption, Nash and Furnival would be under investigation for corrupt behaviour”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/abbott-and-nash-pm-blinded-by-tribal-loyalty-20140221-337eo.html#ixzz2u1kCJxc0
I have a close relation who is an avionics tech (Not Qantas)
The talk is that there will be very little aircraft maintenance left in Qantas Australian operations after Thursday announcement is worked through. Middle East seems to have picked it up
dave
No you are hopeless. Try and follow.
Boats in the news since the election. Boats not winning LNP votes.
That simple. A recent change in polling northwards can’t be the boats. It wasn’t before won’t be now.
Psephos @1848
You deny that the difference is moot on Nauru but then argue using claims that show that it is. Indeed, it was your earlier view that within a decade they’d be here in Australia. If this became official policy the argument against calling it settlement would be good, but of course, it isn’t policy yet.
At this stage it’s a case of the regime and the detainees seeing who blinks first. The regime hopes they’ll elect to FOAD and the detainees hope hat at some point, the regime will cut its losses and let them in. At the moment though, this is a kind of limbo that counts as settlement.
@Pollytics: What Newman and Dooley faced today – questions too awkward to answer, minders to embarrassed to let them stay https://t.co/P19GMKiCQA
milenko @1956 Thrashed with a limp wet tram ticket – Hartcher suffering relevance deprivation syndrome since his ALP BFF have deserted him.
ruawake
Speaking of CanJoh and Tamriel. How is it. ? I’m thinking of signing up as well.
pom @1957 – Not to worry – they’ve got their high wages and excellent workplace conditions to fall back on.
Who would have seen that coming?
[Psephos @1937 ALP will win it in a canter. LNP, unsuprisingly given the reason for the bye-election, ghas never been in the hunt.]
Of course we do need to remember that Newman’s whole strategy was to make himself extremely unpopular in the first half of his term by doing all the nasty things he deemed it necessary to do, and then to bribe his way back to popularity in the second half of his term. When you’ve got a margin of more than 30 seats you van afford to lose a by-election or two on the way. The first half of that calculation has certainly proved correct. Whether the second half will be as well, we will see.
“@TaraNipe: Why do #AUsUnions support #AsylumSeekers? Because unions are about fairness, representation, and improving the lives of those with least”
guytaur@1958
No you are wRONg.
Jimmyhaz 1929
cc @1899
Not even remotely true, the only possible way that Medicare could run out of funding in the future is if the LNP government let it.
You do realise that the Medicare levy now covers only 18% of its costs and falling. Nearly 80% comes from consolidated revenue.
The rise in costs of healthcare in Australia now outstrip the CPI by 5% p.a. and on current trends the entire NSW government budget will be consumed by the Ministry of Health by 2030.
This is not sustainable but a solution can only be arrived at through a reasoned and inclusive debate.
This will not occur soon as Health is one of the perennial hot points that an opposition can use to attack a government
guytaur @1958
So, you see no correlation, let alone causation, between the boat arrivals stopping in the last two months and the recovery in LNP polling in the same period.
Memo to Self/LNP – don’t hire anyone called Guytaur as a consultant.
Psephos
When your opposition caucus can fit in a station wagon the loss of a by election would be pretty meh.
Dave
You are denying the reality of all the polls by quoting the one that suits you. It makes you wrong
Paul Craig Roberts/former Asst Treasurer in US looks at the neocons actions…attested by asst=Foreign Secretary Victoria Nuland…to “capture ” the Ukraine for the EU
__________________
In this article he says such a move will be followed by severe “fiscal adjustments” which will give the Ukrainian people a nasty taste of the “Greek medicine handed out by the Euro Bankers and elites to the Greeks
Nuland says the US has give the Ukrainian opposition $5 billion to acheive the present situation…all part of the neo-cons wish for hegemony in states bordering on Russia.as part of their wish to bring pressure on bth Russia and China….
He also looks at the frankly fascist nature of many of the opposition grous in Kiev and elsewhere…some of whom idolize the pro-Nazi groups who collaborated during WW2 with the German occupiers
Roberts was also editor for a time of the Wall Street Journal
He has become a great critic of the warlike actions of the American Empire which he sees at the root of the Us problems with the economy and of the permanent war mentality of the Pentagon and some of it allies abroad
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/02/21/is-ukraine-drifting-toward-civil-war/
[guytaur
Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 5:00 pm | PERMALINK
@Pollytics: What Newman and Dooley faced today – questions too awkward to answer, minders to embarrassed to let them stay https://t.co/P19GMKiCQA%5D
I don’t think that video will be as bad for Newman and as good for ALP prospects as you seem to think.
Yes, the ALP will win, but those videos don’t help the ALP cause IMO.
[ruawake
Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 4:38 pm | Permalink
Spent an hour at Redcliffe TAFE this morning, all booths very well staffed by locals so went home.]
By-election of course, but I have never seen so many party workers of all colours at booths before. Amazing
Crank
You have been drinking the kool aid
Psephos @1964 – anyone who doesn’t expect the ALP to win quite a few seats back next general election are deluded. I don’t follow QLD politics closely enough to estimate what those numbers might be.
[Compact Crank
…… I don’t follow QLD politics closely enough to estimate what those numbers might be.]
‘Not enough’ would be my estimate.
Oakeshott Country @ #1967
Voters were entitled to have the debate before the election and then decide.
guytaur @1965 – good to see Union commitment to the less fortunate by actively assisting in the exporting of so many high paying, well conditioned jobs overseas to the less fortunate. Big hearted of them.
guytaur@1970
Again you have it wRONg.
Its just not the answer you want, but too bad.
guytaur @1974 – you’re the one in the radical fringe drinking the kool aid to use the Jones Town reference. I’m with the majority of the rest of society pointing and saying WTF?
Dave
You are wrong not liking the answer the polls tell us. Not just since the Federal election but others too. Boats is not a vote winner.
Never has been. If it was Howard would have used it against Workchoices backlash.
Rudd won Howard lost. Boats did not save him
poroti
If you like Skyrim you will like TESO, if you play trying to beat the game you will hate it.
7 weeks till release, I already bought it. We need a PB clan to invade castles and stuff. 😉
Dave
Unfortunately most voters have the same attitude as Jimmyhaz. Healthcare is the magic pudding that can just be allowed to grow. Any party that announces a policy of major, restrictive reforms is unlikely to get to govern and any government that introduces such reforms will not last long.
The NSW government policy on peritonectomy, which seemed to obsess the late Charlotte Dawson is a classic case of the perils of trying to rationally restrict healthcare.
guytaur @1981 – wrong. In 2007 Howard couldn’t argue on Border Protection Policy because Rudd played the Howard-lite line except WorkChoices and did not campaign to change the policy.
guytaur
Take all the time you need to comprehend –
[ On the back of the Coalition’s best poll result since November , the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor’s two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection. ]
dave
repeating your mistake makes you as wrong as at the start. When you can prove that particular result is entirely down to boats you will have a point.
This was the period of Abbott pushing corruption and Thomson’s court case.
Boats present previous polling figures were south for Abbott. Get it Boats do not win votes. They lose them.
Zoomster
Firstly your suggestion would NOT have addressed the issues raised by the HC.
I do get tired of repeating this but try READING the HC judgement.
The current Migration Act which fell foul of the HC has protections which require that the Minister be satisfied that Human Rights will not be breached and identified some of those. IT IS NOT about signing the Convention HOWEVER a country which does SIGN the convention has a basic assumption that they will abide by the convention, because they have SIGNED an agreement. The Australian Minister Sotty or Bowen etc can put their hand on their heart and say “I believe that human rights will be protected cos look this nice country has signed the UNHCR.
Now where a country has not signed the UNHCR the Minister can STILL say I believe they are a sweet nice country etc, but the test is a little harder. The HC said IF get it IF, Malaysia had legislation in place to protect refugees or even some documented protocol or procedures or even if they has SIGNED a MOU with Australia, we could STILL have put hand on heart and said Malaysia is a you beaut safe destination. The PROBLEM was that Malaysia signed NOTHING, NIX, ZILCH. Get it. A Hand shake and the Malaysian Minister (NOT PM) signed a warm inner glow statement that SPECIFICALLY said it was not binding.
Now I do not know about you but I would not normally pay for a bag of chips with so little a guarantee that the chips would be forthcoming.
The OBVIOUS problem with the Malaysian deal is that it might become a POLITICAL issue in MALAYSIA, so that the handling of refugees might become a problem with Malaysian red necks (the equivalents of Psephos and Dave). In the absence of some sort of binding agreement or legislation the Malaysian deal could NEVER have crossed the line.
Boy am I tired of repeating this
I don’t often comment on non electoral issues.
But has anyone in ALP or Greens called out The Treasurer/Finance ministers for their hugely misleading lines about the aged pension?
The ’30’ extra years of life claim… Life expectancy at 65 for men in the 1900s was 11.3 more years. It is now 18.7 more years. A 7 year gain.
Using life expectancy at birth figures is totally misleading. (Infants used to die regularly; infants don’t get the aged pension).
The ABS figures are a google away: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features10Mar+2011
crank
I had Liberal lawyer friend emailing me prior to NSW election inviting me to vote Lib
I said it would be short lived victory based on past experience of corrupt liberals.. Askin , Griner etal..( not to mention Joe) .no reason to change my opinion , being able to add O’Farrell , Nash ….
Whats remarkable is a new government having to claw it was *back* to even.
Whats remarkable is a new government having to claw its way *back* to even.
The 2nd one is if you prefer Engish as she is spoke.
Or English.
Aw screw it, back to work…
ruawake
[
poroti
If you like Skyrim you will like TESO,]
I got it only because it came with another game I bought. Not I thought my cup of tea but I became a fan. If you are looking for an archer to help you I’m your man/Wood Elf 🙂
That’s Engrish
Oakeshott Country @ 1983
Thats true – hence the backlash.
Doesn’t help that the tories attacked even modest measures to increase the medicare levy for the wealthy.
Beyond what you say is also the tories longstanding determination to pull down/ weaken etc universal health care.
But voters are still entitled to their say,eg dump the diesel rebate to the miners and other measures ahead of health care.
Plus abbott’s commitment to the rolled gold PPL for the wealthy blows any case of a reasoned debate out of the water – even if that was what they wanted, which I doubt. Plus the tories want tax cuts to business as well as an increase and widening of the GST.
My opposition to cutting medicare to ‘save money’ has nothing to do with the fact that Medicare is a ‘sacred pudding’ and everything to do with the fact that it is an idea born out of economic ignorance.
We don’t need the Medicare Levy to fund the cost of Medicare, we don’t actually need any taxes at all to fund it. Medicare costs can balloon to whatever they like, it will still remain affordable to this country.
milenko @1989
As opposed to the ALP appearances at ICAC?
How is the NSW ALP polling? Looking forward to a smashing electoral victory?
guytaur
Just take all the time you need –
[ On the back of the Coalition’s best poll result since November , the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor’s two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection. ]
dave
You are an idiot