BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

On the back of the Coalition’s best poll result since November, the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor’s two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection.

The slump in Labor support recorded in the year’s first Nielsen poll has been exactly enough to erase a two-party lead in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which it had enjoyed since mid-December. This was despite a strong result for Labor from Essential Research, which appears to be maintaining its curious status as a lagged indicator. On the state breakdowns, the biggest movement is in Victoria, where Nielsen had Labor’s lead at a well below-par 52-48. This has helped cut the Victorian swing on BludgerTrack from 7.9% to 4.3%, and reduced Labor’s projected seat gain from five to two. Elsewhere, Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The overall projection is now for a Coalition absolute majority, providing another indication that the BludgerTrack model considers the electoral terrain to be weighted in the Coalition’s favour. Leadership ratings from Nielsen provided further evidence of diminishing support for Bill Shorten, who is now only fractionally ahead of Tony Abbott on net approval. Abbott’s lead of about 10% as preferred prime minister has nonetheless been stable since early December, as has his slightly negative net approval rating. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,335 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0”

Comments Page 39 of 47
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  3. guytaur@1876

    We have had AS on front pages almost constantly since the election.

    Labor are in front or just behind according to out of step Newspoll.

    Boats not winning votes

    You’re dreaming and ignoring the facts, eg look at Williams opening sentence for this thread – top of the page –

    [ On the back of the Coalition’s best poll result since November, the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor’s two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection. ]

    Also the tories did far better in the Griffiths by-election then expected.

  4. Fess
    I agree that the question is not on refugees who are usually well accepted into communities. Nor is it race. The hysteria comes down to two features.
    1. As you said it appeared that the government had lost control
    2. Amid the genuine refugees there were some who were gaming the system. E.g. The Sinhalese and Sri Lankan Burghers who have now largely gone back home
    I suspect many Australians primarily objected to this gaming.

  5. Poroti,

    The elephant seals are not that rare on WA beaches. I think I read they usually show up a few times a year, one was even near exmouth a few years ago. This seal was in a particularly easy spot to get see him, hence his celebrity. Or
    maybe we are just so oblivious here in WA to what goes on in the real world that people get excited about a bloody seal.
    The modern media seems to think that the best way to win the race to the bottom is trivialise everything.

  6. ruawake@ 1866

    If Brandi’s has already given info to the RC ( I think he’s all bluff)…..

    Senator Brandis said the government respected the importance of cabinet confidentiality, but it had decided the documents the Commonwealth would produce for the commission ”will include documents over which a claim for public interest immunity might be made, such as cabinet documents”.

    In providing such documents to the commission, Senator Brandis said the government would indicate that it did not waive its right to claim public interest immunity from their contents becoming public.

    ”Accordingly, should the commission wish to publish any of the cabinet documents … the Commonwealth requests that it be notified so that it can consider whether it is necessary to make submissions in relation to such documents or uses, or whether it should seek protective orders,”

    He will swing for contravening the Archives Act which makes no provision for anyone to see documents prior to the release date

  10. dave

    That does not explain all the polls with boats in the news.

    Just accept it boats are not a vote winner. Using boats to attack the other parties competence is.

  15. Hopefully AS will become a non-issue soon. While ever it is an issue it will be a reminder of how much a rabble the late government was.

  16. poroti:

    I am always in awe of your youtube skills. 🙂

    There is, quite literally a youtube for whatever is being discussed here, no matter how obscure or out-of-left-field.

  18. [ BH
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

    Schnappi

    http://www.abc.net.au/newsradio/content/s3949165.htm

    There was an excellent piece on RN Saturday Extra today re the same thing but it’s not only Apple & Google and the other big boys dodging tax responsibilities.

    PAYE workers can’t evade paying so surely there must be a way for all businesses, small as well as large, to pay their fair share as well. ]

    This tweet did the rounds last night and hit the nail on the head –

    [ “Medicare is unsustainable” – I say Tax Cuts and Tax havens for the super rich are unsustainable! ]

  19. [Also the tories did far better in the Griffiths by-election then expected.]

    Yeah it was a sterling loss. High profile 3 time candidate gets insigificant 1.25% swing against complete no-namer with no incumbency factor, despite public being forced back to poll with 6 months.

  20. [Amid the genuine refugees there were some who were gaming the system]

    Yes, I’ve been saying this for a while now. That there were Sri Lankans who chose to return to SL rather than be settled in Malaysia (for the brief period that policy operated), or PNG supports this view.

  23. Premier Campbell Newman faced a hostile reception when he visited a polling booth on Saturday morning for the Redcliffe byelection.
    Visiting the Humpybong State School booth with Liberal National Party candidate Kerri-Anne Dooley, Mr Newman was subjected to a barrage of abuse over his government’s policies and performance.

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/redcliffe-voters-give-premier-a-hard-time-20140222-33855.html#ixzz2u1fmYuFz

  26. guytaur@1910

    dave

    That does not explain all the polls with boats in the news.

    Just accept it boats are not a vote winner. Using boats to attack the other parties competence is.

    Abbotts vote and that of the government is improving – even though, as you say –

    [ We have had AS on front pages almost constantly since the election. ]

    Until the polls go south for abbott you are wRONg!

    I still think AS might just help abbott in the WA Senate rerun.

    But in the meantime abbott polls are the best since November no matter how much you try to spin it.

  27. [Murder is a crime so someone must be guilty. Justifiable homicide is not a crime.]

    And furthermore, when a law enforcement officer uses lethal force when facing armed rioters, it will take incontrovertable evidence of either malice or extreme recklessness to have him charged with murder, let alone convicted.

    For example (to take a case I remember very clearly), the Ohio National Guardsmen who shot and killed four students at Kent State University in 1970 were all acquitted, even though there was no evidence that they personally were being attacked by the demonstrators, and even though they had been given no orders to shoot.

  28. rossmcg

    I never realised that Elephant seals show up that often. I suppose if Antarctic Blue whales head up along the coast why not an Elephant seal ?

  29. cc @1899

    Not even remotely true, the only possible way that Medicare could run out of funding in the future is if the LNP government let it.

  30. Dave

    The point you are trying to deny is the polls have been going south for Abbott with boats in the news from the election.

    Results are in boats means polls go south for government.

  31. dtt

    you asked a different question. You didn’t ask me what the proposed changes were for Malaysia, you asked me what I thought the changes should be.

    You can’t say I’m wrong when it’s my opinion, although you’re free to argue for an alternative.

  32. Spent an hour at Redcliffe TAFE this morning, all booths very well staffed by locals so went home. Not one person mentioned boats by the way.

    Large turnout and apparently 6,000 pre polls as well.

    LNP guys and gals looked a little sad. 🙂

  33. Compact Crank@1922

    Not much respect being shown for the Sovereignty of PNG who holds responsibility for investigating the death on Manus Island.

    I’ll be amazed if any Papua New Guineans are ever charged.

    AS may well be.

    But we will see.

  34. victoria

    [Visiting the Humpybong State School]
    Not sure if teenagers would be too embarrassed to admit going to a school with that name or out and proud of going to a school with a triple 😆 name.

  35. guytaur

    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    @MattCowgill: There has been a surge in DSP recipients! They’re now 4.4% of the working-age population, down from 4.6% 2 years ago: http://t.co/eRIU1vWlUj
    ————————————————

    The way Abbott is destroying jobs they will make up a higher percentage of the working population

  38. guytaur@1930

    The point you are trying to deny is the polls have been going south for Abbott with boats in the news from the election.

    You are one doing the denying it and looking very very dumb.

    [ On the back of the Coalition’s best poll result since November, the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor’s two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection. ]

    When/ if abbott goes backwards come back. Could happen but its not happen now.

  39. The P.I.C.T just doesn’t get it. You all just have to wait and then have a sister souljah moment.

    150 trots complaining about illegal immigrants does not make a protest movement.

  40. From News Ltd.

    [THERE were ugly scenes when the Queensland premier turned up to a Redcliffe polling booth to support Liberal National Party candidate Kerri-Anne Dooley.

    Ms Dooley had happily handed out how-to-vote cards without being heckled but the mood immediately turned nasty when Campbell Newman arrived.

    The opposition to his presence from Labor, unions, independents and ring-ins was overwhelming and chants turned abusive.

    “Don’t sell assets”, “electricity prices up 22.6 per cent”, “save our essential services”, “leave our reef alone”,”shame”, “put the LNP last “, “boo”, it was near impossible to find a positive voice.

    Even when Mr Newman posed with a baby, some yelled “child abuse”.

    The LNP is in for a significant loss at the by-election, with a swing of 12 to 17 per cent predicted against it.]

  44. [The LNP is in for a significant loss at the by-election, with a swing of 12 to 17 per cent predicted against it.]

    Thanks Rua. Voters finding their voice at last.

  46. Still it is a sad tendency of labor supporters to mistake the reaction of its base as reflecting popular opinion, you can trace it back to at least 1975 huge gough rallies and a record low vote.

  48. One thing is certain – even if lies and damn lies exists with the boats – (I mean, who really knows?) but where Abbott is looking a naked as a Jay Bird is with unemployment.

    This was the man who gloated that he would produce 2 million, squillion jobs or some such far-fetched ‘promise’, who then compounded his hubris with The most stupid comment of the decade… “Australia is now open for business…..”.

    Like Hawke’s “No child in poverty”…..comment years ago, the Open for Business rubbish will haunt Abbott for time to come.

    Mind you, the “I am the best friend Medicare will ever have….” runs a close second in the most memorable craps comments for him to make at the moment.

    Nearly every day, hundreds and thousands of job losses noted in the pipeline.

    I am sure Abbott did not think the business would be either a ‘Closing Down’ one or ‘Fire Sale’.

    This destruction of jobs is not biting yet, and there is still a bit of leeway with blaming Labor for a little while longer, but as what remains of his tenure the pigeons will come home to roast.

    At the next election with maybe unemployment pushing say 7-8% and no surplus in sight, he will not only still be naked as a Jay Bird but as vulnerable.

    Bad luck for Oz that come the next election that interest rates will be up, government cuts backs will be up, unemployment will be up, the surplus will still be up, and, I suspect, despite all, there will still be some looking to come to Oz without visas.

    Ah, the Conservative Paradise – a joy for all those on $100K a year or more.

  50. [Check out the picture of CanJoh at the voting booth. The hat and the angle it is on. Looks like he wanted to be incognito]

    Promoting Coca-Cola as well, the obesity club product placement shot?

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