The slump in Labor support recorded in the year’s first Nielsen poll has been exactly enough to erase a two-party lead in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which it had enjoyed since mid-December. This was despite a strong result for Labor from Essential Research, which appears to be maintaining its curious status as a lagged indicator. On the state breakdowns, the biggest movement is in Victoria, where Nielsen had Labor’s lead at a well below-par 52-48. This has helped cut the Victorian swing on BludgerTrack from 7.9% to 4.3%, and reduced Labor’s projected seat gain from five to two. Elsewhere, Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The overall projection is now for a Coalition absolute majority, providing another indication that the BludgerTrack model considers the electoral terrain to be weighted in the Coalition’s favour. Leadership ratings from Nielsen provided further evidence of diminishing support for Bill Shorten, who is now only fractionally ahead of Tony Abbott on net approval. Abbott’s lead of about 10% as preferred prime minister has nonetheless been stable since early December, as has his slightly negative net approval rating. Full results as always on the sidebar.
[ Graeme
Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 5:22 pm | Permalink
I don’t often comment on non electoral issues.
But has anyone in ALP or Greens called out The Treasurer/Finance ministers for their hugely misleading lines about the aged pension? ]
It was certainly done here within minutes of hockey opening his mouth. Labor may well have spoken out but I haven’t seen it run in the media which is not unusual.
poroti
Kick Daedra arse.:)
crank
That’s the point, given how “fresh” the Labor ICAC issues are the Libs are twice as dump to repeat at both state & federal level… It hasn’t taken 10 years to develop , less than one for Fed Libs & in the case of NSW they were undertaking corrupt acts prior to the election… surely a record for arrogance
“Born to Rule ” mentality
guytaur@2000
Now personal insults.
You lose 🙂
poroti,
[I’m bloody amazed (the elephant seal sitting on a Perth beach) was so far north .They tend to be very much sub Antarctic Island beasties.]
Has anyone seen Tony Abbott lately? It could have been him dressed up in a seal suit, to highlight his claim that global warming is a load of crap.
Royal Commissions that should be held
Aust Wheat Board
Howard sending Aust into Iraq war
Govt providing funds to a relative of the PM J. Howard
For these RC Cabinet Documents should be provided
The ICAC enquiries into AWH and political donations will be interesting to watch. Will it take out 3 NSW Libs or 3 NSW libs and a Lib Senator.
dave
Well then ask William how his bludgertrack proves as you contend that I am wrong and William’s data proves boats wins votes.
guytaur
You have just lost with that tanty.
Don’t forget your ‘homework’ –
[On the back of the Coalition’s best poll result since November , the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor’s two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection.]
[AussieAchmed
Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 3:32 pm | PERMALINK
There should be Royal Commission into Howard sending Australia to war in Iraq. He lied to the people as to the reason for sending our troops to war.]
Labor miss the boat on this one lol…
time to move on and fight new battles… some of you are so stuck in the past.
Acerbic Conehead
HoJo would be the go to guy for the gig ? 🙂
[For these RC Cabinet Documents should be provided]
They will be, we just have to wait another couple of decades.
Dave
I lean more to Guytaur’s thinking
The issue with boats is not so much the government seems to be not fact of the boats but whether the government is in CONTROL or seems to be.
Thanks to the Lib spinners and Labor’s own self doubt they looked like a blithering mess on the issue. This immediately translated into an electoral negative
I think that Abbott and Morrison now also look like blithering idiots on the issue what with Navy who cannot read a map, throw away life boats, Indonesian anger and now chaos on Manus. It will cost them votes unless they can somehow get control of the issue.
dave
Not going to ask William?
Thought not you already know that does not prove your point.
[AussieAchmed
Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 5:38 pm | PERMALINK
Royal Commissions that should be held
Aust Wheat Board
Howard sending Aust into Iraq war
Govt providing funds to a relative of the PM J. Howard
For these RC Cabinet Documents should be provided]
You are still so hung up over the Howard years 🙂
I hate to think of what you will be like after ten years of Abbott.
AA
Can we add Sydney Airport privatisation & the revolving door being used by Maxmore Wilton .. “I wasn’t in Cabinet Room at the time” ?
guytaur
Look over there won’t work either. Trying to change the subject means you lose again.
[On the back of the Coalition’s best poll result since November , the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor’s two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection.]
Just watching OnePlusOne with Andrew Bolt. This must be the first time the ABC has a person from the right on since well……… ever!.
Shock horror – the liberals using royal commissions to attack the alp.
Of course the alp was too busy knifing each other in 2007-2013 to think of this.
dave
I have done no look over there. I have said instead of continually reposting part of bludgetrack ask the author if he agrees your excerpt proves your point.
So ask or concede you have nothing because if you do not you will not convince me and many others.
A repeat post of excerpt is concession of defeat
[Just watching OnePlusOne with Andrew Bolt]
I am sure there is a cure somewhere. 😆
guytaur
I admit you have lost this one.
Better luck next time 🙂
[On the back of the Coalition’s best poll result since November , the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor’s two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection.]
A quick mental exercise:
Imagine that instead of what they do look like, IMAs looked like extras in an Australian commercial for air freshener, breakfast cereal, family cars or beer. In what ways would policy be different?
Would Abbott be dealing in the same way? If not, why not?
Dave
With that denial of fact you better be careful or Murdoch will recruit you to work on one of his papers
Gaeme @1988
So, what’s your argument? That life expectancy (LE) hasn’t increased significantly?
Age Pension introduced in 1908.
Earliest available ABS figures show LE At Birth (AB) for male born in 1881-1890 was 47.2 – so you can expect it was lower for those who actually were of pension age in 1908.
If you were 65 in 1908 then you were well out on the average LE for your cohort but still had LE for males of 11.3 and Females of 12.9. What we don’t see is the statistical distribution – was it Normal/T/skewed?
Those born in 1946-48 (eligible now for Age Pension) had a LE AB of 66.1 so that is 18.9 year increase in the LE AB of those currently entitled to Age Pension compared to the 1881-1890 cohort. Additoinally LE at 65 of those alive is 18.7 for males and 21.8 for females. So we lots more people living a lot longer.
LE AB for someone born in 2009 is 79.3 which is 32.1 more than those born in 1881-1991 which is a 32.1 year increase – bu as you point out not necessarily an apples and apples comparison.
If you want ot try and explain all that in a 20 Second media grab buried behind Schapell Corby and in fromt of Torah Bright – go you hardest.
Fact is a lto more people are lviing a lot longer and the current Age Pension arrangements are unsustainable.
I strongly believe we should:
1. Inlcude all assets in the Assets Test including the home.
2. Introduce better Reverse mortgage arrangements.
3. Restore taxation of superannuation income streams.
‘I hate to think of what you will be like after ten years of Abbott.’
O.o
guytaur
You lost this one pretty quickly.
Just don’t forget –
[On the back of the Coalition’s best poll result since November , the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor’s two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection.]
I can highly recommend on ABC iView (or a re-run on ABC24) the Andrew Bolt episode of ‘One Plus One’…
…for anyone interested in seeing a public demonstration of auto-fellatio.
I support the right of precocious youth like guy taur to have their say Dave !
And old codgers like deblonay with their unreconstructed racism and sexism too !
ruawake @2007
I will be very suprised if Senator Sinodinos doesn’t come out of it very well.
I’ll be sad and suprised if I am proven wrong.
Healthcare is virtually a bottomless demand. I am not sure that questioning the limits inherent to the satisfaction of that demand can be classed as economic ignorance.
Dave it just wasn’t the Libs who opposed the attempts at charging the wealthy more for healthcare. From memory the Greens and others of the Left also opposed modifying the universality of Medicare.
Dave
You lose*
Stop wasting screen space I know you are wrong. You delude yourself in thinking I am wrong. All have seen and made up their minds. Your repeats are just annoying mow and will get You lose response until you give up or William is forced to take action. Whichever comes first
[Imagine that instead of what they do look like, IMAs looked like extras in an Australian commercial for air freshener, breakfast cereal, family cars or beer. In what ways would policy be different? Would Abbott be dealing in the same way? If not, why not?]
Ho-hum. When in doubt accuse your opponents of racism. I expect better from you, Fran.
[Just watching OnePlusOne with Andrew Bolt]
And he concluded the answer was three ?
Somebody needs to point out to Dutton that well-off people already contribute to their medical services, through the medicare levy.
The wealthier they are, the more they contribute.
Thats the great thing about a universal, progressive healthcare system.
Its also lower cost as % of GDP in comparison with nearly all OECD countries.
In sum, Dutton and the LNP are full of crap, and it should be easy to explode their weak arguments with relatively limited effort. So get to it!
Your right OC it is too easy to attack on healthcare – witness the republicans turning something logical like health care rationing into death panels deciding who lives and who dies
[ guytaur
Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 6:00 pm | Permalink
You lose* ]
Yes you did.
[On the back of the Coalition’s best poll result since November , the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor’s two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection.]
dave
You lose.
So Adam, when will Maria vamvakinou be announcing her retirement .?
dave
Your repeats convince no one of anything other than what a tool you are for doing it
Fran
Interesting hypothetical.
The only evidence coming close to the scenario was when we had a significant number of Kosovan Albanians come on temporary visas in the mid 90s. Their reaction, destroying parts of Singleton Army Base and then being shipped to Woomera from memory, when it was time for them to go home certainly produced a similar negative response from many of the public. Of course it can be argued if Kosovans would ever get a gig on Australian TV commercials. Poor dentition might be the limiting factor.
Oakeshott Country@2032
Yes, your right now you mention it.
The problem remains, no mandate (Yes – as if) and importantly the tories attacking workers, conditions etc, wanting them to pay more GST etc while the rich and business who are already cutting jobs get tax cuts – then wind back health care and the pension.
Won’t wash. IMO anyway.
OC
[The NSW government policy on peritonectomy, which seemed to obsess the late Charlotte Dawson is a classic case of the perils of trying to rationally restrict healthcare.]
What is the policy?
Edwina @2019
I am very uncomfortable with the Pink Batts RC – something dealt with by Coroners and more so about relaese of Cabinet Papers.
We had a boat called Edwina named after Lady Mountbatten.
Oakeshott @2032
It’s also something that has an almost unlimited supply, the current limitations that we hear about are most certainly classifiable as economic ignorance.
I think this country needs to collectively realise that virtually nothing we currently fund, or could conceivably fund in the future, is economically unsustainable.
With some relatively minor modifications to our taxation system, as well as how we finance government spending, we could theoretically fund basically anything we want to.
2025
Remember that those life expectancy and life expectancy at 65 figures are for the whole population, not for the population eligible for the aged pension. The population eligible for the age pension has a lower life expectancy because wealth and income both keep people off the aged pension and allow people be healthier by spending some of that wealth and/or income to avoid unhealthy situations. The life expectancy of aged pension eligible people is thus lower than that of the general population.
Having said that, I agree that owner occupier housing should be included in the means-test (at least above a threshold), there should be better reverse mortgage arrangements and less tax exemption for superannuation (including taxing superannuation income streams).
[I will be very suprised if Senator Sinodinos doesn’t come out of it very well.
I’ll be sad and suprised if I am proven wrong.]
He was Chairman of AWH during the time, oh and head fundraiser for the Liberal Party in NSW. I will leave the shares he did/didn’t have on a gentlemans agreement for ICAC. I wish I had your confidence.
guytaur@2041
Such personal abuse shows why you lost. :kiss:
While I remain cool as a cucumber and 🙂
[On the back of the Coalition’s best poll result since November , the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor’s two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection.]
Guytaur I am totally shocked.
This was you (on February 2, 2014 at 2:18 pm)
[However name calling is bullying. Maybe you should have a think about that.
It is documented that name calling and getting the herd mentality to go along with you can lead to people committing suicide. This happens in schoolyards mostly as kids more vulnerable. It is known to happen also in social media and workplaces.]
…just because I called you a weasel.
Now I see you calling someone an idiot!!
It appears that you can dish it out but can’t take it (I guess that wouldn’t be unusual for a weasel 🙂 ).