BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the Newspoll drought presumably awaiting to be broken this weekend, it’s all quiet on the BludgerTrack front, apart from the always dependable Essential Research.

The big story in polling this week was no story at all, with Newspoll still yet to resume after its summer break. This has inevitably excited the attention of conspiracy theorists, but if Newspoll takes the field this weekend it will be acting just as it did after the 2010 election, when its first post-New Year poll was conducted in the first weekend in February. In an off week for the fortnightly Morgan series, that just leaves an Essential Research to add to the mix for BludgerTrack, which accordingly records next to no change on last week. Labor does at least reach a new high of 39.5% on the primary vote, putting it within a hair’s breadth of the Coalition. The seat projection is entirely unchanged, with nothing significant happening on the state breakdowns for voting intention. It should be noted that there is still no data from any of the big live-interview phone pollsters this year, all observations this year coming from Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,133 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

  1. Anyone notice the sole audience member clapping Turnbull’s defence of the royal commission? Ihope someone points out the judge in charge was the only HC judge who supported big tobacco….

  2. Simon Katich

    [1stly, by your statement then I assume you would call John Donne a paedophile?]

    Excuse me?

    [2ndly, I wouldnt call myself a ethical relativist, I did specify it was my view in this case. I do believe there are basic human rights that are universal. ]

    What you’d call yourself is neither here nor there. You declared that it was just to imprison people for 9 years and possibly 25 merely because a jurisdiction proclaims it just. It’s either just everywhere to do this or nowhere. That there’s a border somewhere marking out a jurisdiction is entirely arbitrary. Your statement makes you a relativist.

    Each jurisdiction can of course act as suits it. That has nothing to do with whether its decisions respect ethics in a broader sense.

  3. poroti have you done the pig and lawyer one?

    What do you get when you cross a pig and a lawyer?
    Nothing, there are things even a pig wouldnt do.

    Or, did you hear about the lawyer that did a hit and run, left the man dying on the side of the road, and got off….. oh, that one is a true story (Adelaide PBers will get that one).

  4. BK@2981

    That’s the first time for quite a while that I have watched 7:30.
    What a rude, opinionated sourpuss is Sales’ replacement!

    And just to add insult to injury – have you heard Toolman on AM yet?

    Honestly, he’s supercilious enough to make you want to stick knitting needles through your own eardrums.

    I realize the ABC has been deliberately gutted of any serious journalism, but what have we done to deserve this much punishment?

  5. Hi All

    Yeah, I’m back online.

    We had power outage just as I was replying to MTBW and lizzie yesterday.

    And, yeah, victoria, we’re all fit an well here. About 10-20kms from the action, thankfully, although the air is smokey.

    Thanks for your concern (all of you).

    I’m still catching up and reading with great interest, and have had lots of comments (to myself, of course) about everyone elses’ posts.

    Funnily enough, I’d like to comment on the “illegal” plant/drug issue.

    First off, I empathise with bemused’s stance. I don’t know who I would like to blame the most for the death of my child, but I reckon “substance abuse” would be right up there.

    But I want to talk about COMFREY.

    All my life I’ve endured eczema – not severely – but enough to be an absolute shit of a problem.

    The one thing I found to alleviated it was an herb called comfrey. It’s common name is “bone-knit.”

    About 10 years after I discovered its superb properties (I drank it as a tea – I could never drink “tea” or coffee), the sale of comfrey was banned because of some obscure research that proclaimed it was a carcinogen.

    For about two years after it was banned I was able to obtain it “under the counter,” but then that became an issue for the seller, and commercially it was totally unavailable.

    I managed to get some seeds and grow my own for a while, until it was policed as much as cannabis. It wasn’t worth the effort, in the end, so I ended up doing what every other mild-eczema sufferer has done – buy expensive lotions to control the syndrome (would the research that made it prohibited have been done by a pharma?).

    You never can tell with these union scoundrels.

    “Bone-knit”, the common name of this herb, so the old wives! tale goes, was used to wrap a broken limb, not to immobilise it so much as to create an almost poultice-like situation where the healing properties of this herb were absorbed (is that adsorbed?) through the skin to enable “knitting of the bone together”.

    You need to see the leaves of this plant to understand how it could possibly could have been used, in the olden days, to immobilise a limb (not as large as pumpkin leaves (and not so spiky either), but almost so) and possibly why a person so wrapped did not move, hence enabling a bone to knit together anyway.

  6. confessions@3064

    Why would you want Julia Gillard to give evidence to an RC about union corruption unless it was for a stunt?

    That’s all this RC is, simply a witch hunt.
    But Abbott should be careful, in the 70’s they had an RC into union corruption, this time involving the Painters and Dockers and BLF (If memory serves) all well and good, superficially, but it also implicated Howard, via the “Bottom of the Harbour”.
    As I said, Abbott should be very, very careful. What goes around, comes around.

  7. This was retweeted by Roy Morgan:

    Retweeted by Roy Morgan
    Jordan Eliseo ‏@JordanEliseo 4h

    @roymorganonline business confidence rose in January, before SPC and now Toyota. Pretty sure it will be lower a month from today sadly

  8. Fran, John Donne had an affair with and married a girl (Ann?) in her mid teens. If justice/ethics is a fixed thing then he should be considered a paedophile, no?

    And I would argue that Indonesia is trying to act ethically as it believes such harsh laws are protecting their children. And as for arbitrary borders, this border has two very differing countries either side of it, with different cultures, history, development etc. So, in this case I think some flexibility is what is just is justifiable.

    Similarly, in John Donnes time it may be ok for him to marry a 16 year old (although i seem to remember there being a bit of a kerfuffle about it).

  9. The revelations of a “marriage” involving a 12 year old girl are disturbing not just because of the marriage itself but also because the girl’s husband and father apparently genuinely do not see any moral or legal implications

  10. confessions@3075


    The ToR will be so narrow that it will deliver the findings the coalition want.

    Yep, someone should remind Abbott that what goes around comes around. In three years time, when labor are back in Government, they should use every trick that Abbott has used against them. It’s time the gloves came off.

  11. Whoooa, i must apologise Fran. When I first mentioned the P word I was going from memory and that was that Ann was around 13. Then I checked, and she was 16 and tried to cover my tracks.

    So, sorry for that, but my point holds.

  12. Albrechtson doing the standard right thing of interrupting. She and Turnbull have been at it all night. It is time for Labor reps to learn to interrupt and talk over Murdoch’s Marauders.

  13. From Boswell’s Life of Johnson: “…much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that ‘he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'”.

  14. Diogenes

    [Donne’s wife was 16 when he married her. He was 25 so that makes him a paedophile by todays standards.]

    I’m not sure it does. Age of consent is 16 in NSW. How old was Joe Lyons’s wife?

  15. Dreyfus definite that burnt asylum seekers should be investigated. Turnbull defends secrecy, wtte the ends justify the means. Dave Hughes gets stuck into Turnbull (including talking over him).

  16. Simon Katich

    Your point doesn’t hold at all, irrespective of whether you thought Donne a paedophile or not.

    If you seriously think X justice applies for Y crime then borders make no difference, despite a 28 year old chap marrying a 16 year old girl.

    And we’re talking late 16th/early 17thC. As poroti says, “In those days, 16 was literally middle aged.”

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