BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the Newspoll drought presumably awaiting to be broken this weekend, it’s all quiet on the BludgerTrack front, apart from the always dependable Essential Research.

The big story in polling this week was no story at all, with Newspoll still yet to resume after its summer break. This has inevitably excited the attention of conspiracy theorists, but if Newspoll takes the field this weekend it will be acting just as it did after the 2010 election, when its first post-New Year poll was conducted in the first weekend in February. In an off week for the fortnightly Morgan series, that just leaves an Essential Research to add to the mix for BludgerTrack, which accordingly records next to no change on last week. Labor does at least reach a new high of 39.5% on the primary vote, putting it within a hair’s breadth of the Coalition. The seat projection is entirely unchanged, with nothing significant happening on the state breakdowns for voting intention. It should be noted that there is still no data from any of the big live-interview phone pollsters this year, all observations this year coming from Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,133 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  1. shellbell

    Your “legal eagle” interpretations of such shenanigans are much appreciated. even if you are one 🙂

    [Q: What’s the difference between a lawyer and an angry rhinoceros?
    A: The lawyer charges more.]

  2. frednk

    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 8:15 pm | Permalink

    Other drugs including cannabis should be illegal.

    My own view illegality should be directly proportional to the aggression of the taker. I’m interested in why you feel cannabis should be illegal.
    =================================================

    They are a bigger mental health problem than heroin users.

    Heroin uses just want a fix…cannabis users need metal health interventions

  3. Fran 2827

    Sorry for late response;
    “When a usage is unjust, it matters not a jot whether one ought to have exercised the prudence not to run afoul of it.”

    Fran, its your opinion that her sentence is unjust. Whilst I tend to agree that in our country harsh sentences for this would be unjust, I wouldnt make such a claim regarding another country on this issue. And thats why I hold that Corby (again assuming she did this) has only herself to blame for the time she has spent in prison.

    I dont, for example, judge other areas of Indonesia that insist on wild orgies and incest during the yearly harvest festival after digging up their dead in order to allow proper transition for both the dead and the community through the death and grieving process. All the luck to them. Similarly, if Indonesians believe that strong penalties will protect their communities from drug addiction then good luck to them. I would merely make a note to self not to smuggle drugs across their border.

  4. Dyson Heydon is one of the great legal minds of the 16th century. Tony went looking for a paleo-conservative plonker, and got one. The man spent his whole career schmoozing with corporate types and would absolutely hate unions.

  5. Personally I reckon they should legalise Pot (prohibition has never worked) as well as Heroin.
    Amphetamines, such as “Ice” on the other hand, no way should that be legalised. Ice is downright lethal.
    It F***s with your mind, and is the elephant in the room as far as all these “king hit” violence goes.

  6. Shorten did very well in that 7.30 interview. He kept his cool and stuck to his message.

    It was like he was being attacked by a German Shepherd in the process.

    Sheezus where did the ABC dig that one up from?

  7. YB

    [Amphetamines, such as “Ice” on the other hand, no way should that be legalised. Ice is downright lethal.
    It F***s with your mind, and is the elephant in the room as far as all these “king hit” violence goes.]

    I spent my Friday night operating on an IV drug user who’d taken speed and managed to fly through a huge window.

    He was absolutely berserk.

  8. oh, ok, it took me a while to figure out how to correct the name, and when people started to respond i figured i better work it out – one thing to have a pseudonym, another to have the wrong sex.

  9. Don’t forget that Heydon was the only HC judge who delivered a judgment in favour of the cigarette companies. Need I say any more. Just the man to sort out union riff-raff and put the lower orders in their place – seriously.

  10. There was a show on ABC national in the last few days about religious use of certain drugs. Mostly tryptamine based ones – all of them powerful psychedelics.

    The users claim these drugs give them religious experiences they consider genuine, and consider their illegality an infringement on their right to religious freedom. They probably claim they were left by God to enhance our evolution or some such non sense.

    Attempts to ban these drugs have seen laws that on their widest interpretation would include making the Golden Wattle illegal because it contrains trace elements of DMT, a very potent short acting and illegal psychedelic drug. (Some people claim DMT is produced in the human nervous sytem as well, in trace amounts and usually associated with melatonin production. I dunno if there actually is any good evidence to support this, or even to remotely suggest it.)

    So you kind of have to wonder who is more rational – some nutcase trippers or the people who make laws in reaction to them?

  11. Simon Katich

    [Fran, its your opinion that her sentence is unjust. Whilst I tend to agree that in our country harsh sentences for this would be unjust, I wouldnt make such a claim regarding another country on this issue. And thats why I hold that Corby (again assuming she did this) has only herself to blame for the time she has spent in prison.]

    Well there you go. You’re an ethical relativist and I’m not. I’m not someone who believes national frontiers are relevant to what is ethical or what is not.

    I’m with John Donne on this one.

    [No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend’s or of thine own were: any man’s death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bells tolls; it tolls for thee.]

  12. fran

    that would be OK if ethics were not a relative concept, and didn’t change over time.

    There’s a few fixed stars, certainly (most cultures disapprove of murder) but, for the most part, what is moral and ethical shifts according to time and place.

    In a hundred years or so, I have no doubt that at least a couple of the ethical beliefs you now hold as central and basic will be regarded as abhorrent by fran2114.

  13. Why only lawyers?

    A man was walking in the street one day when he was brutally beaten and robbed.

    As he lay unconscious and bleeding, a psychologist, who happened to be passing by, rushed up to him and exclaimed, “My God! Whoever did this really needs help!”

  14. FTR Simon, I thought you were harshly dealt with by cricket officialdom. I wasn’t a huge fan to begin with — you were getting out nicking the right armer to WK and 1st slip far too often IMO.

    That said, you did improve over time and I’d say you were discarded a little earlier than was called for, given who else was available. I’d have played you at 4 or 5 in the order.

  15. Puff

    A businessman opened a brothel. On the bottom floor were ex telephone operators; on the second floor, former hairdresses, and on the top floor, former teachers.

    After a few months, it was obvious the teachers were raking in the money. So he decided to bug the rooms to work out what was going on.

    The telephone operators were saying, “Sir, your three minutes are up. Do you wish to extend?”

    The hairdressers were saying, “I’m sorry, but if this goes any longer I’ll be late for the next appointment.”

    And the teachers were saying, “I don’t care how many times we have to do this, you’re staying here until you get it right.”

  16. [3016
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 9:11 pm | PERMALINK
    Don’t forget that Heydon was the only HC judge who delivered a judgment in favour of the cigarette companies. Need I say any more. Just the man to sort out union riff-raff and put the lower orders in their place – seriously.]

    And he was the only one who supported the Malaysia deal

  17. [Now watch as plastic Tony takes up his first position: SPC Ardmona is a subsidiary of a profitable multinational. Well, yes, but can’t the same be said of Cadbury? Yes. And Tony’s twisting again – this time it’s the reverse wriggle, asserting that Tasmania is different because it has the highest unemployment of any state. True, but as Dr Stone points out, the rate in Shepparton, where SPC Ardmona is based, is even higher.

    So Tony’s at it again with the convex convolution: The handout to Cadbury was not about a bailout but about tourism, which makes it OK. So promoting tourism is more worthwhile than saving an industry and the jobs that go with it?

    Wait, Tony’s still on the move. Now it’s the warped wangle: Workers’ conditions at SPC Ardmona were absurdly generous, so it was all the unions’ and the management’s fault. However, as it turns out, the Cadbury agreement with the union United Voice was, if anything, even more lavish. Can Tony untangle himself from this position?]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-10/maccallum-spectacle-beats-substance-in-political-sideshow/5248988

  18. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    [Why are dragons large, gold, and fiery ?

    Because if they were small, brown, and hairy, they’d be coconuts. ]

  19. Zoomster

    [Oh, and I love John Donne…but I’m pretty sure he’d had held as sacred ideas that you wouldn’t regard as ethical.]

    Well he was a Christian, obviously, so plainly, we’d have been poles apart on that. It’s also possible to take Donne’s claim here much farther than is consistent with the rights of individuals to make their own choices.

    I can’t imagine that Fran 2114 would disagree with me about any matter of principle. She might have a different take on how it should be mapped to practical policy of course, armed as she’d be with a new cultural context. Before I could entertain her disagreeing with me, I’d have to doubt one of the principles I now hold, and if I did, I’d not be advancing it as a principle.

  20. Fran,
    1stly, by your statement then I assume you would call John Donne a paedophile?

    2ndly, I wouldnt call myself a ethical relativist, I did specify it was my view in this case. I do believe there are basic human rights that are universal. But in how one deals with drugs in the community; I allow some flexibility across cultures.

  21. Abbott: Honest workers and honest unionists should not be ripped off by corrupt officials and honest businesses should be able to go about their work without fear of intimidation, corruption
    ====================
    Honest workers and unionists should not be ripped off by millionaire executives and corrupt company boards and should be able to invest their hard earned savings without fear of being ripped off while the executives and boards continue to live millionaire life styles.

    There, fixed!!

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