BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the Newspoll drought presumably awaiting to be broken this weekend, it’s all quiet on the BludgerTrack front, apart from the always dependable Essential Research.

The big story in polling this week was no story at all, with Newspoll still yet to resume after its summer break. This has inevitably excited the attention of conspiracy theorists, but if Newspoll takes the field this weekend it will be acting just as it did after the 2010 election, when its first post-New Year poll was conducted in the first weekend in February. In an off week for the fortnightly Morgan series, that just leaves an Essential Research to add to the mix for BludgerTrack, which accordingly records next to no change on last week. Labor does at least reach a new high of 39.5% on the primary vote, putting it within a hair’s breadth of the Coalition. The seat projection is entirely unchanged, with nothing significant happening on the state breakdowns for voting intention. It should be noted that there is still no data from any of the big live-interview phone pollsters this year, all observations this year coming from Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,133 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 57 of 63
1 56 57 58 63
  1. rua

    I think I have good inside info that cannabis was being conveniently transported from Brisbane to Sydney by flight around the time of Corby’s arrest?

    Can you shed any light?

  2. Today’s weed is far stronger than the weed which many smoked in the 1960s/1970s.

    It does alter a person’s personality, in some cases making them more aggressive, in others more docile.

    One can argue for a change in its legal status but it should always have some regulation on its use.

  3. [Apparently Hockey parents liked Chifley]

    Richard Hockedonian arrived in Australia in 1947, as part of Chifley’s great postwar migration program, and was so grateful to that great Labor PM that he named his son after him. Obviously something went wrong in the next generation.

  4. rua

    [Tony Abbott said he had no knowledge of the Toyota closure]

    Going on past performance if he did have a brief on it he wouldn’t have bothered to read it.

  5. I wonder why Indonesia didn’t parole Corby on condition that she serve her parole in Indonesia and that she didn’t talk to the media. Everyone would have been happy with that arrangement.

  6. Psephos

    [Richard Hockedonian arrived in Australia in 1947, as part of Chifley’s great postwar migration program,]

    Can STOP THE BOATS be applied retrospectively in this case, do you think?

  7. Several friends who are coping with some desperation with adult children who have gone psychotic apparently as a consequence of bending their minds with dope. For some it is stage two stuff: their kids have suicided, at times in horrific circumstances.

    I have other friends/family members who have had people smashed up in a lifelong fashion as a result of alcohol car prangs.

    The rewards for dope and alcohol are personal. The risks are social.

  8. [Psephos
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 5:48 pm | Permalink

    I wonder why Indonesia didn’t parole Corby on condition that she serve her parole in Indonesia and that she didn’t talk to the media. Everyone would have been happy with that arrangement.]

    She does have to stay in Indonesia as a condition of her being a parolee.

    Allowing her to talk to the Oz MSM is a sure sign of Indonesia’s ongoing intent to make Australia suffer for Abbott’s lack of diplomacy.

  9. I imagine that Abbott agreed to lie about Toyota’s decision to close down Australian manufacturing until they had had the opportunity to announce the decision directly to workers.

    I don’t have a problem with that lie, a sort of white lie.

    If there is any criticism it is that when he is lying on someone else’s behalf, he is not a very good liar. He is a far better liar when he is doing it for himself.

  10. cud chewer

    [
    Tony Abbott has no knowledge.]

    His arms are too short. They are not long enough to reach the suppository of all knowledge.

  11. [She does have to stay in Indonesia as a condition of her being a parolee.]

    Oh, I didn’t realise that. I can’t say I’ve devoted much time to reading about her. Has anyone in the media said a word recently about the two Australians still facing execution in Indonesia? I suspect that because their names are Chan and Sukumaran no-one much cares.

  12. [It is a psychoactive drug that will cause schizophrenia in vulnerable individuals. ]

    There is a hypothesis that this is the case, there is also a view that schizophrenia sufferers chose to self medicate with cannabis.

    The evidence we have is that Cannabis use is associated with an earlier age of onset of schizophrenia, not that it caused it. Meta-analysis showed that the age at onset of psychosis for cannabis users was 32 months earlier than for cannabis non-users.

    Many find it a useful scapegoat to blame for familial mental health problems.

    I smoked cannabis daily for nearly 30 years, I held down jobs in high pressure technical environments while doing so.

    The Salvation Army cannabis argument fostered by John Howard is not a proven fact.

  13. I knew about Hockeys name in reference to Chifley but hadnt joined the dots to the awful irony. Thanks PBers for that!

    Bemused; I think the important word that Fran used is “comparatively”. As such its an argument that has some merit even considering the serious effects it can have on many who use it. Perhaps she should have used a different word to innocuous tho’.

  14. My grillfiend and I are going to have a drinking game tonight while watching Q&A. We nominated three words/phrases each. What’s the bet we’ll be rolling drunk by half-time?

    Me: “Un-Australian”, “poitically-correct”, and “bias”.

    Her Majesty: “The Malcolm Turnbull-patented knowing smirk” (just sneaks in by the criteria we set), “Well …” (Malcolm again), and “Realistically”.

  15. The other issue swinging in the wind is that the AFP had a role in putting Chan and Sukumaran into the way of execution.

    I am not sure whether the ‘rules’ preventing Australian authorities from assisting overseas authorities in cases where the death penalty might apply were in place when the AFP did some tipping off re: Chan, Sukumaran et al.

  16. Though I’ve never used dope by far the worst drug in terms of social and financial stress would have to be alcohol. My involvement has been with youth as a lecturer at university and attending some of their parties and seeing the problems it causes.

    What I’ve observed of alcohol with recreational night club drugs is even worse.

    Additionally, dope being illegal allows the dealers to introduce the other drugs to the novice dope user and build up a much bigger trade.

    Dope on it’s own appears to cause less problems than any other drug even including tobacco.

    There are large numbers of places around the world where dope use is not prohibited. There seems to be little evidence of it causing major problems but rather the other drug usage I mentioned earlier.

  17. I’m surprised Indonesia is forcing Corby to stay in Bali.

    Don’t we normally toss out non-citizens after we’ve released them from prison?

  18. Diogenes@2827

    I’m surprised Indonesia is forcing Corby to stay in Bali.

    Don’t we normally toss out non-citizens after we’ve released them from prison?

    No doubt that they’ll deport her as soon as her parole is served.
    The longer she stays away from Oz and keeps silent, the better.

  19. [The other issue swinging in the wind is that the AFP had a role in putting Chan and Sukumaran into the way of execution.]

    They’ve been quite open about the fact that they did that. They could have waited until the Bali 9 reached Australia, then arrested them. Instead they tipped off the Indonesians. Their argument is that they were bound to do so by the terms of the co-operation agreement with the Indonesian police. Maybe that’s true.

    I think it’s a tribute to the Indonesian judiciary that they paroled Corby in the middle of the worst period of Indonesia-Australia hostility for many years. So maybe there’s still a chance that SBY will pardon Chan and Sukumaran. They seem to be holding off executing them for some reason.

  20. [Peter Anderson ‏@zerogeewhiz 17m
    I thought Abbott saved local car manufacturing by returning FBT on cars to “legal rort” status.]

    Yes, whatever happened to that?

  21. ruawake@2820

    It is a psychoactive drug that will cause schizophrenia in vulnerable individuals.


    There is a hypothesis that this is the case, there is also a view that schizophrenia sufferers chose to self medicate with cannabis.

    The evidence we have is that Cannabis use is associated with an earlier age of onset of schizophrenia, not that it caused it. Meta-analysis showed that the age at onset of psychosis for cannabis users was 32 months earlier than for cannabis non-users.

    Many find it a useful scapegoat to blame for familial mental health problems.

    I smoked cannabis daily for nearly 30 years, I held down jobs in high pressure technical environments while doing so.

    The Salvation Army cannabis argument fostered by John Howard is not a proven fact.

    Pot heads are always defensive! 👿

    I was careful to say in vulnerable individuals and that is now widely accepted in the medical profession.

    Exceptions, like you, don’t prove the rule. You were just lucky.

  22. Diogenes

    [Don’t we normally toss out non-citizens after we’ve released them from prison?]

    Not sending her back to AbbottAustraliat is an act of mercy on the part of the Indonesians. 🙂

  23. [So maybe there’s still a chance that SBY will pardon Chan and Sukumaran. They seem to be holding off executing them for some reason.]

    I think they may need to wait for the next President, who may very well commit the death penalty to life.

  24. What’s the chance that Corby will say something stupid in her TV interview that will see her breach her parole and be put back inside.

  25. [Pot heads are always defensive!]

    No I produced facts. I was not defensive at all. I no longer smoke anything although my GP has recommended it for anti-inflammatory effects.

    The big problem of course is research into treating schizophrenia with new pharmacological treatments that have an affinity for endo-cannabinoid receptors is banned by foolish people who wage war on drugs.

  26. poroti

    [Not sending her back to AbbottAustraliat is an act of mercy on the part of the Indonesians. :)]

    Given they are pretty pissed with us I would have thought they’d dump her on us PDQ.

    Then again, all those journalists must be giving their economy a boost.

  27. Simon

    [But, poor attempt at humour aside, if we assume she did smuggle it into Indonesia then, considering the laws of that sovereign country were quite clear at the time, 9 years of her life were not “taken”. She gave them up. The herbs innocuousness (now my word of the day) is only relevant wrt her level of stupidity.]

    I disagree. When a usage is unjust, it matters not a jot whether one ought to have exercised the prudence not to run afoul of it. If one suffers, the suffering is unjust, and any compensation that comes one’s way ought to be welcomed.

    Corby may well have breached the unjust laws of Indonesia on this matter, though I remain uncertain. What is certain is that however that may be, gaol was not an apt response, and nine years gaol was an absolute travesty.

  28. The evidence on pot and schizophrenia is complicated. It certainly triggers schizophrenia in some people but it seems those people would probably have developed it anyway.

  29. Given that pot is absolutely awash publicly on the streets of Bali, the sentence Corby got was very high compared to Indonesia’s complete lack of interest in stopping pot dealing on the streets.

  30. [The evidence on pot and schizophrenia is complicated. It certainly triggers schizophrenia in some people but it seems those people would probably have developed it anyway.]

    And nobody can research it because any funding for research into cannabinoid receptors is usually rejected.

  31. [Mr Denmore ‏@MrDenmore 27s
    Border patroller, necromancer, press ganger, Brandisian bookcase maker #jobsoffuture]

    and 1 million of them lied Tony.

  32. [Tim Watts ‏@TimWattsMP 11m
    Toyota confirms that they were ‘close’ to making the decision to launch the next generation Camry line in Oz. Damning indictment of Abbott]

  33. Mr Denmore

    [Don’t worry kids, new jobs will come – just not in industry, retailing, food processing, media, education, science & renewables. Freedom!]

  34. If I go to Nigeria and have sex with a man, does the fact that I knew what Nigerian law was went I went there justify me being jailed for life if I get caught? There are arguments on both sides here. Yes the law is unjust. But yes I was foolish to go there and knowingly break that law, thinking that my status as a foreigner would protect me.

  35. Lend Lease, Leightons and Multiplex are busy shredding stuff thanks to Abbott’s announcement of the RC ToR by Press release.

    Why not wait for letters patent from the GG?

Comments Page 57 of 63
1 56 57 58 63

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *