BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the Newspoll drought presumably awaiting to be broken this weekend, it’s all quiet on the BludgerTrack front, apart from the always dependable Essential Research.

The big story in polling this week was no story at all, with Newspoll still yet to resume after its summer break. This has inevitably excited the attention of conspiracy theorists, but if Newspoll takes the field this weekend it will be acting just as it did after the 2010 election, when its first post-New Year poll was conducted in the first weekend in February. In an off week for the fortnightly Morgan series, that just leaves an Essential Research to add to the mix for BludgerTrack, which accordingly records next to no change on last week. Labor does at least reach a new high of 39.5% on the primary vote, putting it within a hair’s breadth of the Coalition. The seat projection is entirely unchanged, with nothing significant happening on the state breakdowns for voting intention. It should be noted that there is still no data from any of the big live-interview phone pollsters this year, all observations this year coming from Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,133 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  2. Shellbell

    It is interesting the Channel 7 boss Kerry Stokes has always tried to position himself above the tawdriness of the media. He portrays himself as The man from humble beginnings, not like the packers and murdochs, who collects art and buys Victoria Crosses for the war memorial. But he has no difficulty with the low life programs his network broadcasts. And he has no difficulty in doing deals that usually see him enrich himself at the expense of the minority shareholders.

  3. I guess the Coalition must be pissed off. They declare a $100 million war on unions and it won’t be in the top two news stories of the day.

  5. psephos

    [Here’s a sad little commentary that might serve as some restraint on the self-righteousness of the Left.]

    Self righteousness of the Left?

    They finally figured out what MacDonald was like years ago and MacDonald ended up with the Right wingers and their dirty deals.

    You will of course know that John moved into Geitzelt’s office in Carringbah when Geitzelt retired and that is when he asked me to come and work for him.

    We later moved to Drummoyne.

  8. Zoomster @ 2745

    You are aware incorrectly.

    I will respectfully choose not to respond to your last paragraph in brackets.

    Still, I’ve read the link you referred to @ 2731 and the beauty of it is that we can all have an opinion. A pity such opinions can never be tested to be proven correct or incorrect such as in an election outcome or a sporting contest.

  9. Shorten would be smart to not focus on boats.

    Focus instead on the government’s economic problems.

    Its economics that matters.

  10. A bludger posted some comments last week re a building company in Sydney had not paid its workers entitlements due to going broke, but had given the Liberal Party a $200,000.00 donation.
    Was this story verified?

  11. Lynchpin

    The RC is so open ended it will have to open skeletons in cupboards of many organisations and individuals. Looking into professional standard breaches should see Hockey’s in the dock over his audit fraud.

    I will wager that no charges are laid after spending $60-100 million.

  17. [Psephos
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

    Here’s a sad little commentary that might serve as some restraint on the self-righteousness of the Left.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-07/steketee-the-alleged-communist-ian-macdonald-betrayed/5244580%5D

    Yep. Any member in the Labor Party or in the Trade Union Movement who deliberately ignores and/or tolerates and/or tacitly supports the corrupt behaviour of another member of the Labor Party or another functionary of a union is a rotten apple.

    Rot spreads.

  18. Mtbw

    That’s right. I missed any reportage of it here in Melbourne, and did not see it online either. Do you recall where you heard this?

  21. Thanks Ruawake. My concern was the the ToR (which I haven’t read) would be very narrow and completely focused on Unions only.

    Does anyone know what Heydon is like?

  22. [They finally figured out what MacDonald was like years ago and MacDonald ended up with the Right wingers and their dirty deals.]

    That’s not what Faulkner says. He says the Left (ie, the NSW ALP Left) went on supporting Macdonald long after his corruption was widely known.

    [As an ex-Maoist, do you keep a straight face as you write such jibes at the left?]

    I was a Maoist for three years, 40 years ago. And I wasn’t refering to the “left” in general (of which I still consider myself a member), but the NSW ALP Left specifically.

  26. Surely it’s time now for Abbott to move from abject and viscious vindictiveness to trying to be a true leader with long term vison for the country.
    Is that too much to ask?
    Probably!

  28. Having spent a considerable amount of times in countries where corruption is a normal part of the social, political and economic fabric, my view is that we cannot be too vigilant or too harsh.

    Good on Abbott for tackling corruption in union behaviours. Excellent. And if Abbott does not tackle business corruption because they are his mates, lets hope that Labor finds its cojones and announces an RC in business corruption when it next gains office.

    The first positive step would be to reconstitute ASIC with draconian powers of spying and subpoena so that the spivs really do get a chill up their spines when they behave in a corrupt fashion.

    What we do about what amounts to purchased intellectual corruption in rags such as ‘The Australian’ is a more difficult challenge.

  29. Good let Tone say that the next question should be you seem to know plenty about the building industry but know little about manufacturing or the economy.

  32. A second step would be that the habit of the ATO negotiating fines and repayments would continue but that there would be pro rata jail terms.

    If you have to repay $1 million, that would equal one year.

    And so on and so forth.

    Crooks and liars are crooks and liars.

  33. Well Toyota was always going to discontinue its operations after the GMH decision.

    The only surprising fact is that has been announced so soon 😆

    Qantas will be very interesting – only because Abbott and his fellow clowns have no clue what to do!

  36. [Tony Abbott said he had no knowledge of the Toyota closure, just like everything else I guess?]

    But as recently as 6 weeks ago they were “in talks” to keep Toyota in Australia!

  38. To show how hopeless Tone & co are Mary Burra new head of GM in an interview said she was focused on growth opportunities.

    Funny how our so called business aligned government was unable to develop a business plan with a company seeking to grow its business.

  40. Fran 2765 “and so is dill”

    maybe you are not using it correctly? 😉

    But, poor attempt at humour aside, if we assume she did smuggle it into Indonesia then, considering the laws of that sovereign country were quite clear at the time, 9 years of her life were not “taken”. She gave them up. The herbs innocuousness (now my word of the day) is only relevant wrt her level of stupidity.

  44. [But as recently as 6 weeks ago they were “in talks” to keep Toyota in Australia!]

    Actually he just said he met Toyota this morning, so he lied to Karen Middleton when she asked the question in his Union RC presser.

    They just slip off his tongue, he can’t help himself.

  45. [Australias Proud automotive industry, built by Joseph Benedict Chifley, destroyed by Joseph Benedict Hockey]

    I had no idea Hockey’s middle name was Benedict!

  46. Thank you Mari and Victoria.

    I find that as I age I can do less hours per week – so my staff get more work but I’ll soon not be able to survive on what is left for my fewer and fewer hours.

    We may well see the biggest shakeout in retailing in our lifetimes despite previously witnessing the demise of corner stores, greengrocers etc.

    Add this to the manufacturing shakeout and we could see Australia lose a million jobs in five or six years.

    Is it really possible Abbott would be allowed a second term?

    Even so, can a change of government reverse the damage???

  48. Fran Barlow@2765

    Bemused

    It is not “a comparatively innocuous herb” you dill!


    Of course it is, and so is dill.

    I used “dill” as a mild term of abuse but will move to the full treatment if you prefer.

    It is a psychoactive drug that will cause schizophrenia in vulnerable individuals. That will cause a significant number to take their lives.

    Trivial for a clueless green I suppose. 😡

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