ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, the slow-moving Essential Research also ticks a point in Labor’s favour, and Morgan records little change.

UPDATE (Essential and Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3019 by face-to-face and SMS, shows little change on the primary vote, with the Coalition up half a point to 39.5%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11.5% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead is up half a point on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but the precise opposite happens on the previous election preferences measure. Today’s Essential Research moves a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. See bottom of post for further details.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, up to 53-47 from 52-48 in the December 15 poll. Primary votes are Coalition 39.8%, down from 41.4%; Labor 40.6%, up from 40.4%; and Greens 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The poll also has 20.3% reporting being better off since a year ago compared with 39.3% for worse off and 40.4% for neither. Prospectively, 23.5% expect to be better off in a year, 39.4% worse off and 37.1% neither. On the economy as a whole, 34.9% think it headed in the right direction and 39.3% in the wrong direction, with 25.8% undecided. A very similar question from Essential Research last week had 38% rating the economy as heading in the right direction versus 33% for the wrong direction, which while better than the ReachTEL results was a substantial deterioration on post-election findings which had it at 44% and 27%. These figures here courtesy of Ryan Moore on Twitter.

The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 3547. Full results will be available on the ReachTEL site tomorrow, which will apparently include personal ratings that have Tony Abbott up and Bill Shorten down. Stay tuned tomorrow for the weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Crikey reports Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. Also featured: privatisation deemed a bad idea by 59%, including 69% for Australia Post and 64% for the ABC and SBS; 24% think we spend too much on welfare, 41% too little and 27% about right; 64% believe the age pension too low, but only 27% think the same about unemployment benefits; 78% believe alcohol-related violence is getting worse, and perhaps also everything they see in the news media; “87% support harsher mandatory sentences for alcohol-related assaults; over 60% support earlier closing times for bottle shops, pubs and clubs; 76% support lockouts and 59% support lifting the age at which you can buy alcohol”. UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,159 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Lyndajcla re Grandfather and notes
    __________
    Certainly thwy should be placed in an appropriate place
    There are several such repositories
    The National Library in Canberra would be interested I am sure,as would the Butlin Archives at ANU,and indeed The State Linbrary of Victoria also should be consided

  4. Thanks psephos and shows on. The notes ate obviously hand written and full of his thoughts for the days battle. How did you know pseph?

  5. 2012

    It is a good thing that horse are no longer a major means of transport because of that reason and also the public health issues of the manure in cities.

  6. Psephos

    [Ten times more people in Australia are killed by horses every year than by sharks.]

    There you go. They shoot horses don’t they?

  9. {2067
    Fulvio Sammut

    I owe you an apology, Just Me. I got the wrong poster!]

    No problem, I suspected as much. 🙂

    FWIW, I broadly agree with you, the sexual lives of politicians are off limits, except if they are being hypocrites or breaking the law.

  10. [2067
    Fulvio Sammut

    I owe you an apology, Just Me. I got the wrong poster!]

    No problem, I suspected as much. 🙂

    FWIW, I broadly agree with you, the sexual lives of politicians are off limits, except if they are being hypocrites or breaking the law.

  14. [Although come to think of it, in WA they shoot sharks don’t they?]

    And Barnett was musing on the news tonight about culling saltwater crocs in Broome, even if the method of culling wasn’t yet determined.

    Shooting horses is a vastly different proposition from shooting sharks, though.

  18. Psephos re your plans for” dealing” with Iran
    ________________________
    When Bemused asked this question last night you fobbed him of with some statement re the Elders of Zion and you still working on the project

    Your may be interested to know that the PM of Turkey has taken advantage of the opening to Iran by making his first visit to Tehran this week,and starting a number new trade deals,etc with Iran,notably re oil and gas

    and tonight in his State of the Union speech Obama made it clear that the attempts in Congress by the usual suspects for tighter sanctions of Iran, will not succeed
    so what ARE your plans

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iXoUDKOYl59M6k19GxSQwvTNFNyQ?docId=121985c5-dfe6-49bd-9015-cab577ed32b8

  19. I think the only fair way to kill sharks and crocodiles is in unarmed combat.

    And I think all Coalition politicians should have the courage of their convictions and lead by example.

  20. 2115

    Cars have killed more than horses, for many decades, but they have a lot more contact with people. At similar traffic levels, horses kill more than cars but the trouble is that cars allow a much higher level of traffic. Horses are not the solution but car use does drastically reduced. PT, walking and bicycles are the answer.

  22. Fulvio Sammut@2119

    I think the only fair way to kill sharks and crocodiles is in unarmed combat.

    And I think all Coalition politicians should have the courage of their convictions and lead by example.

    Any way we could arrange for the crocs and sharks to fight it out? 😀

  23. Confessions

    We do shoot horses in WA. Remember just a few months ago there was a massive wild horse cull in the Kimberley.
    As for Barnett raising the matter of a croc cull, er croc mitigation campaign, that was just a thought bubble.

  26. [Thanks psephos and shows on. The notes ate obviously hand written and full of his thoughts for the days battle. How did you know pseph?]

    How did I know the MHR for Bendigo who died in 1960 was Percy Clarey? Because I know the membership of the House of Representatives since Federation pretty much by heart.

  28. [Anyway, sharks and crocodiles won’t fight Coalition politicians.]

    Because the sharks and spivs line up to take shots at the ALP.

  31. [and tonight in his State of the Union speech Obama made it clear that the attempts in Congress by the usual suspects for tighter sanctions of Iran, will not succeed
    so what ARE your plans]

    My plan is support Israel’s right to take whatever steps it deems necessary to defend itself against the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran. Since Rouhani succeeded Ahmedinejad that threat has diminished somewhat, but not by a great deal. If Israel deems it necessary to attack Iran’s nuclear sites (as it previous attacked sites in both Iraq and Syria), I will support their right to do so.

  32. Psephos,

    [I’m pretty certain the Communist Party case did not go to the Privy Council.]

    Maybe the report went to the privy instead.

  33. Hi pseph you have memory of all that? Walking history you are…. I thought I alone remembered and know. Thankyou. A friend just told me about her grandfather who fought in Spain and was executed at 34…would have been a believer like Nana….these people gave their lives in s foreign country for freedom….no monuments for them…no recognition by and large

  34. [these people gave their lives in s foreign country for freedom….no monuments for them]

    There is a memorial near Lake Burley Griffin in Canberra to all the Australians who fought in the Spanish Civil War, on which they are all named.

  39. Psephos

    “There is a memorial near Lake Burley Griffin in Canberra to all the Australians who fought in the Spanish Civil War, on which they are all named.”

    I note you said ‘all’ twice. I take it this means the Nationalists and Republicans are listed together?

    If so I wonder how they’d feel about that.

  40. Thanks pseph…I travelled to Canberra to show my girl the Parliament… stopped along the way and never saw it… glad though…many Australians fought and its mostly forgotten. They lived their beliefs and died without fanfare..
    It would fitting to document and show it to people on the telly….ordinary but extraordinary people…

  42. [I note you said ‘all’ twice. I take it this means the Nationalists and Republicans are listed together?]

    So far as I know, no Australians served with the Francoist forces. There was no international volunteer force comparable to the International Brigades serving on the Francoist side, although there were some individual fascists from other countries who volunteered. Franco of course had a large Italian Army force and a German Luftwaffe unit, the Condor Legion, serving with him.

  44. I asked because I remember an awkward conversation with my late, earnestly Catholic grandfather in which he recalled a strong desire to join the Nationlist forces in Spain. He ended up somehow donating a large sum if money to the effort instead.

    Yeah.:/

    I figure given the militancy if the time at least a few Aussies ended up there on the side of fascism.

  45. [I figure given the militancy if the time at least a few Aussies ended up there on the side of fascism.]

    Not that I’ve ever heard, and I read most of the material on Australian involvement in Spain while I was researching my thesis.

  47. I think this is really interesting and largely unknown history to many…Chrissie Pyne may not like it but it speaks of a time when people had empathy for one another and fought for it with their lives…they died because they knew it was important to do so…people who cared about working people’s lives…only unions gave us z better life….if they are destroyed then so are we…

  48. It was an unspeakably ugly conflict and I cannot help but marvel at the conviction and bravery of those that chose to stand against mechanised fascism in such a way. It boggles the mind.

  49. I broadly agree with both 2147 and 2148, but we should not overly romanticise the other side. The International Brigades were organised by the Comintern and served the propaganda purposes of Stalin’s regime. Republican Spain rapidly degenerated into a colony of Stalin’s Soviet Union, complete with secret police, purges and executions. Andres Nin, the leader of the Trotskyist POUM, for example, was murdered by the NKVD. By 1939 there wasn’t much to choose between the two sides.

  50. I guess your right psephos…great movements have created horrors that weren’t envisaged at the start.. when it all seemed clear..
    I’d rather be hopeful though of course people fuck stuff up….sadly so

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