ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, the slow-moving Essential Research also ticks a point in Labor’s favour, and Morgan records little change.

UPDATE (Essential and Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3019 by face-to-face and SMS, shows little change on the primary vote, with the Coalition up half a point to 39.5%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11.5% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead is up half a point on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but the precise opposite happens on the previous election preferences measure. Today’s Essential Research moves a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. See bottom of post for further details.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, up to 53-47 from 52-48 in the December 15 poll. Primary votes are Coalition 39.8%, down from 41.4%; Labor 40.6%, up from 40.4%; and Greens 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The poll also has 20.3% reporting being better off since a year ago compared with 39.3% for worse off and 40.4% for neither. Prospectively, 23.5% expect to be better off in a year, 39.4% worse off and 37.1% neither. On the economy as a whole, 34.9% think it headed in the right direction and 39.3% in the wrong direction, with 25.8% undecided. A very similar question from Essential Research last week had 38% rating the economy as heading in the right direction versus 33% for the wrong direction, which while better than the ReachTEL results was a substantial deterioration on post-election findings which had it at 44% and 27%. These figures here courtesy of Ryan Moore on Twitter.

The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 3547. Full results will be available on the ReachTEL site tomorrow, which will apparently include personal ratings that have Tony Abbott up and Bill Shorten down. Stay tuned tomorrow for the weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Crikey reports Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. Also featured: privatisation deemed a bad idea by 59%, including 69% for Australia Post and 64% for the ABC and SBS; 24% think we spend too much on welfare, 41% too little and 27% about right; 64% believe the age pension too low, but only 27% think the same about unemployment benefits; 78% believe alcohol-related violence is getting worse, and perhaps also everything they see in the news media; “87% support harsher mandatory sentences for alcohol-related assaults; over 60% support earlier closing times for bottle shops, pubs and clubs; 76% support lockouts and 59% support lifting the age at which you can buy alcohol”. UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,159 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Magic Pudding @ 2046

    I did notice it was 23/77 earlier. That sort of violent turnaround just doesn’t happen without nefarious intervention.

  3. [2042
    Fulvio Sammut

    I rather wish you hadn’t made that comment, Just Me.

    Much as I dislike both creatures involved, I think such comments are best left out.]

    ???

  5. Shouldn’t Phoney’s mum have rung the ABC to tell them that spoilt brat son was being undermined by the public broadcaster conceived as a middle of the road public media outlet! We all know she skittled the would be pregnant daughter in-law at the 11th hour.

  7. Obama and the State of the Union Speech
    __________________
    Often these speeches are set pieces ,but tonight he seemed to be taking the offensive in what is a mid-term election year
    He took the initiative in the long-drawn out debate over the minimum wage( which will be raised for Fed workers from $7 to $10) ,..and also steps to enforce egual pay for women..and several other measures,including steps re climate change
    He also took on the Repubs who want to increase threats to Iran,by making it clear that his opening to Iran will go on

    In this he is taking on the Lobby who have members who raised a bill in the House to tighten the sanction on Iran ,in direct opposition to his plans
    He made it clear that this is not on

    This all seems to indicate that Obama intends to take on the Republicans on a range of domestic issues,like poverty and wages

  8. 2045

    The ABC has the most coverage about the Commonwealth Monarchy. It also has the best broadcast coverage of regional areas and Landline.

  10. Just Me I seem to be confusing quite a few people here tonight.

    I was trying to say Abbott’s private life, whatever it is, should be off limits, unless of course he choses to make it public.

    But that’s my view only, and you are free to say what you will.

  11. Magic Pudding

    “I doubt that many real people could be organised so quickly; my guess is that the site was hacked and a bot used.”

    I agree. A pointless exercise if there ever was one.

  12. Rossmore

    [Diog 2038 Or the stunning failure of the ABC to fairly report the recent international diplomatic breakthrough by the Australian PM in describing the Syrian civil war as a case of baddies v baddies.]

    And when he wins the Nobel Peace Prize for it I bet they won’t report it either.

  16. Certainly, in fact I was incensed at the personal vindictive attacks made upon them then, and indeed that continue to be made even now.

  19. ShowsOn @2068

    He is always pissed. Its because he cannot accept the fact that the world is always changing and has to change. He is trying to be god and stop time in its tracks.

  20. You don’t need anything like 40000 people to freep an online poll. All you need is an app, a connection and a web enabled device. People have demonstrated this before. One culture warrior could do that.

    Indeed, it might have been done by someone who couldn’t care less about the topic but is either a troll, or wants to bring online polls into further disrepute.

  25. The Australian is reporting that a “saving” is going to be to scrap the Australia Network. If Murdoch cannot have it nobody can apparently

  26. ShowsOn@2068

    Is Abbott pissed off that he didn’t get chosen as the new host of Media Watch when Jonathan Holmes retired?

    New Avatar Shows?
    The writing is too small. Put it on 2 lines and make it larger.

  27. Fran

    Your use of the verb ‘freep’ struck me as out of place on an Australian message board, that’s all. They basically invented the practice of purposefully skewing online polls.

    I read it daily for a laugh.

  29. [The Australian is reporting that a “saving” is going to be to scrap the Australia Network. If Murdoch cannot have it nobody can apparently]

    Now that is a surprise. I’d expected the coalition govt to just hand it over without blinking.

  30. [In 1950 Menzies passed the ” Communist Partry Dissolution Act’ sought to ban the Communist Party of Australia
    The High Court rejected this and stuck down the legislation.

    Later Menzies went to the Privy Council in the UK but got the same result
    This led in 1951 to the Referendum to entrench the provisions of Menzies legislation in the Constitution but the Referendum was defeated]

    I’m pretty certain the Communist Party case did not go to the Privy Council. I can’t find any reference to it doing so. George Winterton, in his long discussion of the case in “Australia’s Constitutional Landmarks”, makes no mention of a Privy Council appeal.

  34. My grandfather spoke in Parliament against the bill to outlaw the CPA. He was apparently to the right of the party at that time…left now…Nana was an out and out communist and their politics had them divorced but they both held social justice dear. I have his original writings before going into the house. He died in office in 1960 before I was born holding the federal seat if Bendigo. Maybe his notes should be preserved

  35. RE Communist Party Di8ssolution Act
    ______________
    I may have confused the matter re the Privy Council with the Privy Council hearing some years earlier over Chifley and his Bank Nationalisation Bill in 1947-48
    From memory I think Dr Evatt took that case to London

  36. The BBC would be very familiar with this issue, because Abbott’s attack closely resembles Thatcher’s attack on the BBC during the Falklands War, when BBC news referred to “British forces” and “Argentine forces”, rather than “our forces” and “enemy forces” as they had done during WW2.

  40. [He died in office in 1960 before I was born holding the federal seat if Bendigo. Maybe his notes should be preserved]
    Post them to the Smithsonian.

  42. So Team Abbott can’t even launch an original attack on Australia’s public broadcaster, instead having to rip one off from England back in Thatcher’s day?

  43. Bemused quoted me

    [ Fran Barlow@2081
    Ah, I see. I noted some Tea Party type boasting about it on YouTube a while back.]

    Then said:

    [Send it to Fairfax.]

    I feel sure they would know. There’s been no shortage of talk on the matter.

  44. [I may have confused the matter re the Privy Council with the Privy Council hearing some years earlier over Chifley and his Bank Nationalisation Bill in 1947-48
    From memory I think Dr Evatt took that case to London.]

    That’s correct.

  50. I am beginning to think the next newspoll will be 54-46 Labor’s way instead of 53-47 which was my prediction a couple of days ago

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