With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).
The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.
Rossmore@1947
If 3 star had any brains he would not have accepted the assignment or would by now have requested a transfer even if it involved loss of rank.
Frednk, cheers and nicely put.
Morrison is our very own Captain Ahab …. (Hint to the cartoonists ….!)
I was listening to 101.7 on the radio this morning and they gave Shorten oxygen 🙂
Abbott is embarrassing to Australians with an apology to Indonesia.
Centre
Spot on. The way things are going you will soon not be considered instantly crazy for questioning if we still have a democracy.
Not there yet, but you can see the path.
Centre@1940, based on observed behaviour and applying Occam’s Razor, I’m starting to think that the answer might be “yes”.
On the other hand, I find myself regularly astounded at the incompetence of people (in all fields) who are supposed to know what they’re doing, so I suppose it’s not impossible that the current government really are as stupid as they appear to be.
@bemused/1051
Money must be involved if 3-star general had brains to accept Coalition Party Policy knowing what happened last time this lot came into power.
Rossmg 1950 eh fair suck of the sauce bottle, it was my theory that frednk happened to agree with ….
Hiding behind “operational security” as a way to stop information on what is happening is, frankly, damn patronising toward Australians
Last time media looked at wages, was in 2012.
3 star earned $440,000 per year, over 500,000 in 2013 onwards.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/taxper-funded-gold-lifestyle-for-defences-top-brass/story-fndo1gb8-1226543377164
zoidlord@1956
IIRC he was bumped up a rank. That increases his pay.
If that is the price of his soul, then he deserves the infamy he acquires.
If the Australian Navy sends those new life boats into Indonesian waters, wouldn’t that constitute as not complying to the Indonesian’s request not to cross its boundary?
Why don’t the Libs do something useful and turn back Japanese vessels that are destroying whales in our waters?
Morrison makes a pretty good modern day Captain Ahab…
“All that most maddens and torments; all that stirs up the lees of things; all truth with malice in it; all that cracks the sinews and cakes the brain; all the subtle demonisms of life and thought; all evil, to crazy Ahab, were visibly personified, and made practically assailable in Moby-Dick. He piled upon the whale’s white hump the sum of all the general rage and hate felt by his whole race from Adam down; and then, as if his chest had been a mortar, he burst his hot heart’s shell upon it.”
@Br_Tr: Labor pledges 24-hour weekend public transport for Melbourne if it wins November election http://t.co/cWg0D2Az1t #SpringSt #MetroTrains
Yeah, I think after tonight’s performance we all deserve a break from ST, at the very least.
[
Rossmore
Posted Saturday, January 18, 2014 at 11:12 pm | Permalink
Rossmg 1950 eh fair suck of the sauce bottle, it was my theory that frednk happened to agree with ….
]
The interesting thing will not be who thought of it first, but, will anyone in the Canberra press gallery start thinking.
Navy got lost! Come on guys, get real, navy knows where it is to the meter, the land did not move. Navy did what it did for a reason, what is the reason?
Rossmore
From one Ross to another .. Sorry, it’s hard to keep track here sometimes
Rossmore again
Gee they knew how to write in them days!
fred
I wouldn’t put it past Morrison that the land moved.
Perhaps I have become one eyed, but in my view you need an ST to drive home just how moronic the Liberal Party has become. Try to remember he is not in the wilderness on his own, there are a lot more where he came from.
One thing is for sure. A few more editorials like the one in the Age and we may see the end of the stupid secrecy. I say stupid because we find out anyway and long before we do the people smugglers know.
Any current serving Navy or Customs personnel care to offer a view, anonymously of course, on the breach of the Indonesian border incident?
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Centre
Posted Saturday, January 18, 2014 at 11:41 pm | Permalink
fred
I wouldn’t put it past Morrison that the land moved.
]
Perhaps as an excuse, better than “oops the Navy left their maps at home”.
Rossmg 1967, no problemo…
Maybe there was a really strong current 🙂
Cenre
Bondi Lifeguards to the rescue!
Or the GPS battery was flat?
Correct me if I am wrong. But if the navy is transferring AS onto Australian lifeboats in international waters and sending them back into Indonesian waters, then even if the Navy boats do not breach Indonesian waters, technically we are still sending Australian boats into Indonesian waters every time this happens. The lifeboats are Australian boats. Not military, but not authorised under international convention either.
[Perhaps I have become one eyed, but in my view you need an ST to drive home just how moronic the Liberal Party has become.]
Tisme was on the right side of the argument as often as he was on the wrong. He wasn’t particularly bright and didn’t always press his advantages, and he could be stubborn and pig-headed when he was shown to be wrong. But he wasn’t always wrong.
In many ways he was the opponent you bludgers deserved. Your conservative mirror. He only attracted so much attention because there was only one of him and so many more of you.
Or the dog ate the GPS?
Goodnight all.
Oh a quick thought. Abbott went wrong the minute he put a general in charge of a navy operation.
@LSL/1978
Think someone needs their heads examined.
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Leisure Suit Larry
Posted Saturday, January 18, 2014 at 11:49 pm | Permalink
…
Tisme was on the right side of the argument as often as he was on the wrong. He wasn’t particularly bright and didn’t always press his advantages, and he could be stubborn and pig-headed when he was shown to be wrong. But he wasn’t always wrong.
]
Nobody is always wrong or right, but the Liberals are having a dam good shot at always being wrong.
-Global warming; nature isn’t going to stop for a slogan.
-Peak oil, too late it’s happened.
-Movement of refugees, it’s happening (many from wars we stuck our nose in) deal with it within the real international political constraints.
-NBN Fibre to the home is the future. “Liberals wasted three years” is going to be the prefect 2016 slogen..
-GFC Sorry mate it happened.
-Debt. Getting worse faster under the liberals.
The list goes on and on and on. To stuff so much up so badly takes more than one man. The Liberals can deliver.
[Nobody is always wrong or right, but the Liberals are having a dam good shot at always being wrong.]
I don’t doubt your sincerity in this belief. But you should not doubt the sincerity of Tisme and others (not all of them stupid) who thought exactly the same thing about Rudd and Gillard and their policies.
When you are so heavily invested in one side or the other you lose the proper perspective to be able to judge the issues fairly.
[Yeah, I think after tonight’s performance we all deserve a break from ST, at the very least.]
Yes please.
Whjat is the state of play with Sean Tisme Is he out ???
Jake@1985
A break for Tisme? An arm or a leg would be nice. His neck would be taking it a bit far. 😛
Bemused 1987
””but I could cope with thayt !
[In many ways he was the opponent you bludgers deserved. Your conservative mirror. He only attracted so much attention because there was only one of him and so many more of you.]
He, and all those who continually reacted to him, are banal and tiresome.
@LSL/1984
For someone who doesn’t “play” sides, Labor did a far better job than Coalition Party have done so far.
The fact you brought up the Rudd/Gillard issue shows that you are unable to criticize the Coalition Party to the extent that has been acceptable.
LSL
Tisme is actually not unpopular because of his political allegiance, he’s unpopular because he will express his views, often disappear when challenged or proven wrong, then continually repeat his views over the following pages.
And can’t he say some really dumb things?
No I disagree, he’s not that bright!
Destroy a protected and ancient forest to build a suburb
______________________________
Yes they did !
http://www.imemc.org/article/64001
LSL
I did read your post pretty quickly.
Yes, you have conceded Tisme is not bright, I think that’s an accurate assessment.
[Tisme is actually not unpopular because of his political allegiance]
Tisme is indeed unpopular for his political allegiance. It is impossible for someone to express conventional LNP views without being unpopular here. You can be vaguely an LNP supporter here and not be crucified for it, but in order to achieve that you need to denounce key planks in the LNP agenda (usually including Tony Abbott himself).
Sean was 100% the LNP package, and as such he never stood a chance, no matter how he argued his case.
None of that is to say that he wasn’t a dickhead as well. But there will never be tolerance for a proper root-and-branch LNP supporting person on this blog.
LSL
Sean is not the only Liberal here, but he is the only one willing to run any kind of serious defense of this government which is a far harder task than one could otherwise have expected.
LSL
I suspect the Greens supporters might have a few things to say and even amongst ALP supporters there can be slanging matches from time to time.
LSL
Well you are very wrong.
You are wrong to suggest that it is impossible for someone to express LNP views here without being unpopular.
You obviously forgot or were not around when Glen was around?
Centre
True Glen was okay although he is hardly ever here these days, DavidWH is another one that seems likable and Mod is okay. I even didn’t mind GP.
beemer @ 1998
Agreed.
[You obviously forgot or were not around when Glen was around?]
Was he pro Tony Abbott? Against same sex marriage? Did he support Andrew Bolt in his quest for the right to be racist?