Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The Christmas-New Year poll drought ends courtesy of a new result from Morgan, which suggests little has changed over the break.

Morgan has released what it describes as the “first major public opinion poll of 2014”, though it could just as easily have dropped the “major”. It provides no indication of festive cheer softening attitudes towards the new government, showing the Coalition down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39% with Labor also down half a point to 38%, the Greens up half a point to 10.5% and the Palmer United Party steady on 3.5%. That translates to a 53-47 lead to Labor on 2013 preference flows and 52.5-47.5 on the headline respondent-allocated figure. As has been Morgan’s form for a while now, this poll combines its regular weekend face-to-face polling with SMS component, in this case encompassing 2527 respondents from the two weekends past. The first Essential Research result for the year should be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Little change also from Essential Research, which opens it account for the year with a result from the polling period of Friday to Monday only, rather than its two-week rolling average. This has the Coalition leading 51-49, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens each up a point on the primary vote to 45%, 38% and 8% respectively, with the Palmer United Party steady on 4% and others down two to 6%. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, showing a slight improvement for Tony Abbott – up two on approval to 47% and down three on disapproval to 43% – and a softening for Bill Shorten, down four to 35% and up one to 32%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s lead shifting from 43-33 to 42-31. The poll also finds strong opposition to fees for GP visits, with 28% approving and 64% disapproving, and 47% support for Australia becoming a republic at the end of the Queen’s reign against 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,586 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 21 of 32
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  1. [40 predicted for the ACT today. Off to a slow start: it is still only 20.]
    It cracked 28 about 20 minutes ago. (based on the car thermo.) Luckily I am now in aircon comfort.

  3. leone –

    [ Nothing makes me reach for the remote faster than the appearance of Ms Crabb. I don’t want ‘light’ or ‘fluffy’ news. I want decent, fair reporting and I don’t want it presented by a giggling, over-hyped twit.

    Because petitions are all the go right now I’m thinking of starting a ‘Get Annabel Crabb off the ABC’ one. I think it could do well. ]

    Yes – pretty well the reaction in our household.

    I wonder if crabb is even capable of doing a decent serious investigative interview or article.

    She did a monthly article on turnbull some years ago where she came across as the usual giggling school girl.

    I mean who for instance would even be remotely interested in seeing articles on the across the board clamp down on information release by abbott or seeing them held to account for it?

  4. [Oh come off your high horse. Labor reported every boat that arrived. They didn’t restrict to to once a week pretend briefings.]

    Yes they sent out an email.

  7. My NY resolution is occasionally to say what I actually think. And I like Annabel, and Trioli. Makes a change from dour men who have no sense of humour.

  9. victoria

    I can’t read that piece. Telegraph says I’ve had my “guest quota” for the week, which is a lie as I rarely go near it.

    What’s the essence of the argument pls?

  10. [1007
    lizzie

    My NY resolution is occasionally to say what I actually think. And I like Annabel, and Trioli. Makes a change from dour men who have no sense of humour.]

    Good on you, lizzie.

  11. leone

    My comment was tongue in cheek. However that said Crabbe does her thing well.

    I think with Kitchen Cabinet Crabbe is great. Not so much as host of the Drum.

    I am pleased Trioli has gone to AM. When she did morning radio in Melbourne she got Reith on Children Overboard. Wasted on breakfast.

    For what Breakfast does I think Crabbe is better suited to the role.

  12. God help the Victorians! They need a week without any wind to contain all those lightning strike fires or the shit will hit the fan this week.

  14. I liked Annabel in her dinner at Polly’s house series – I don’t like her as a serious political commentator but still better than Latika Abbott cheer bot. I hate breakfast tv it is a terrible idea.

  15. lizzie

    [A MEMBER of the Senate committee investigating the government’s budget cuts has warned any plans to apply the full value of the family home to the aged pension asset test would impose a “new tax on Sydney”.

    NSW Labor Senator Sam Dastyari has called for the government to rule out the proposal included in a submission from the Business Council of Australia to Tony Abbott’s Commission of Audit, claiming Sydney families would be hit the hardest because of higher property prices.

    Mr Dastyari, a Labor member of the inquiry, will seek to amend the Commission of Audit’s terms of reference to include a Sydney cost of living index to any government budget cuts which hit the family hip pocket, warning Sydney families would be otherwise forced to carry the burden of national austerity measures.

    Mr Dastyari said he would raise the issue of Sydney’s high living costs today during the first hearings into the Commission of Audit which has been tasked with identifying cuts to government services and middle class welfare to repair the budget.

    “Every time the government looks to cut costs, Sydney families are disproportionately affected,” Mr Dastyari said.

    “The government needs to start taking into consideration that cost of living pressures and housing prices in Sydney are greater than anywhere else around the county.

    “It needs to rule out any means testing of the family home for the pension or any other benefit. We all know the family home in Sydney costs more than anywhere else in the country. We can’t risk a new tax on Sydney.”

    The asset test proposal was submitted to the Commission of Audit by the Business Council of Australia. BCA president Tony Shepherd is also the head of the commission.

    “On the expenditure side, there may be a need to question whether it remains appropriate for the family home where it is of considerable value to continue to be included in the age pension assets test only at a low notional value,” the BCA submission stated. Mr Shepherd will appear before the Senate inquiry in Canberra today.

    Mr Dastyari said he would demand Mr Shepherd rule out the proposal from his own organisation. “People have cause to be concerned. The Commission of Audit is being chaired by Tony Shepherd, who is the president of the BCA,” Mr Dastyari said. “The secretariat is run by Peter Crone, who is the policy director of the BCA.

    “The BCA makes a submission to this inquiry, being chaired by its own president, calling for the family home to be included in any means test to determine if someone is eligible for the pension.

    “I will be calling on the commission to rule it out – currently they are saying everything is on the table, well this shouldn’t be.”]

  22. lizzie I agree about Trioli. She was wasted on the repetitive breakfast show. Boring as all get out but on AM she will get back to what she is best at … journalism.

    I’m in 2 minds about Crabbe. She can be awfully good and awfully bad. Her Kitchen bit has been interesting and informative. She just needs to make up her mind about being frivolous or serious when it comes to i/vwing Lib pollies on policy and playing politics.

    Thinking of you BK and other firefighters today. MidNorthCoast is lucky – we’re getting cooling breezes down the gullies and about 30C. We can cope with that.

  23. Fran Barlow@1018

    I’ll sign on to that campaign Leone. Crabb is an embarrassment.

    If and when I see any of Crabb’s work that is worthy of praise I will acknowledge it.

    Did leigh sales land any good questions on morisson last night on 730 ? Or was it the same old, same old no comment from morisson?

  25. [1020
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 10:45 am | PERMALINK
    rummel – You’ve been very quite.

    Children tracking well I trust.]

    I have been lurking. The Kids are a hand full at the moment with a five year old on school break.

  26. dave

    I looked on PB and there was little comment. I then held my nose to watch the interview. I was more interested in ythe politics behind why Morrison did the interview. I thought it was interesting when Sayles pointed out that 60% don’t think the Govt is tough enough. Ha ha ha!

    I don’t think she landed any blows other than to get an admission that the weekly briefing were off.

    When I finished watching I told my wife I thought Morrison was a effing disgrace.

  28. “@ABCNews24: Immigration Minister @ScottMorrisonMP to address the media on #asylumseekers policy at 11:30am AEDT. Watch live on #ABCNews24 #auspol”

  29. [“@ABCNews24: Immigration Minister @ScottMorrisonMP to address the media on #asylumseekers policy at 11:30am AEDT. Watch live on #ABCNews24 #auspol” ]
    They should all refuse to turn up to this performance.

  31. [lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 10:14 am | Permalink
    My NY resolution is occasionally to say what I actually think. And I like Annabel, and Trioli. Makes a change from dour men who have no sense of humour.    ]

    Lizzie

    If it’s humour you’re looking for, Annabel is definitely the girl for you. I don’t find her funny at all but that’s a matter of personal taste.

    But when it comes to serious political reporting – the kind that will expose Abbott for the sham that he is – I would prefer a dour person of either gender any day over someone who seems to think it is all just one big joke.

    People’s lives are being badly affected by what is going on in this country at the moment and as far as I’m concerned that is no laughing matter.

  38. BK@1029

    “@ABCNews24: Immigration Minister @ScottMorrisonMP to address the media on #asylumseekers policy at 11:30am AEDT. Watch live on #ABCNews24 #auspol”


    They should all refuse to turn up to this performance.

    One of the Australian media outlets should start taking news feeds and commentary on the AS issue from an Indonesian media outlet.

  39. Darn

    I don’t think Annabel is “funny”, that’s for people like Adam Hills. I think she has a sense of the ridiculous. She also dealt very well with the pollies in her Kit Cab.

    But if you want “serious political reporting – the kind that will expose Abbott for the sham that he is” there’s a dearth of reporters of any gender. We get far too much deadly serious rubbish.

  43. rummel

    [he Kids are a hand full at the moment with a five year old on school break.]

    Nephew who lives about a K away has 4 daughters – they’re attending summer day-care at the moment.

    Parents at work so the black leather in my car festooned with child seating.

    The number of banana paddle-popps done over are not countable.

  44. Hewson had some interesting comments on the ABC this morning regarding the alleged government media blackout. Basically he said it’s to try and reverse the trend from the Rudd/Gillard era of rolling press releases where the government continually fed the media often with repeats of previous announcements re-hashed to appear new announcements.

    Hewson also said that eventually the government will be judged by outcomes rather than process which I think is pretty spot on.

    In the case of boats I think they are just trying dampen the hysteria, which admittedly they helped create, because they are playing a cloak and dagger game with the Indonesians. Basically they know what they want to do but just don’t want what they are doing daily in the news. Once it’s in the news the Indonesians have to respond.

  47. [@amworldtodaypm: Bill Shorten accuses Joe Hockey of hiding plans for big budget cuts. “They should just come clean…” http://t.co/HbL4ZZNxLn #auspol]

    Poor Bill. Hockey has already said any cuts will be announced in the May budget. Bill just needs to be patient.

  48. dwh

    An approach that denies the public right to know and debate issues.

    Thus the fall in poll popularity. Voters do not like being treated as mushrooms

  49. Rossmore

    Thanks for linking the Rachel Maddow piece. What we could do in Australia with someone like her. Articulate, concise and sympatica.

  50. [An approach that denies the public right to know and debate issues.]

    Guytaur as Hewson said it’s not the business of government to do the work for the media.

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