Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Essential Research offers more mediocre post-election poll ratings for the new government, together with findings on climate policy, boat arrivals, industrial relations and manufacturing.

Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead up slightly on a weak showing last week, from 51-49 to 52-48, with primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Findings of further questions:

• “Direct action” is favoured over carbon pricing 35-31, reversing a 39-29 lead for carbon pricing in May. Support for carbon pricing is down from 43% to 39% with opposition up to 43% to 47%.

• Support for the government’s decision to cease issuing statements when asylum boats arrive is at 39% – surprisingly high, to my mind – with opposition at 48%.

• The re-establishment of the Australian Building and Construction Commission is supported by 29% and opposed by 22%, with the rest down for either no view or don’t know.

• There are also questions on manufacturing which suggest respondents to be broadly supportive of protectionism.

Meanwhile, buttons have been pressed today for Senate contests in Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, which you can read about in the Senate counting thread a few posts below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,183 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Bemused, the problem with that as I see it is that you’re singling out one of Labor’s best-performing divisions as perpetrators of an epic failure, just because of the random circumstance of an extremely popular independent being in the field.

  2. “murderous rage” was clearly played for humour. If you haven’t seen it, don’t take it literally. She was playing to the audience, and the audience loved it.

  3. Dio

    Non-hawkers have a somewhat narrow view that Franklin was in the team solely to kick goals. This has been changing ever since the Hawks realized that he was going to leave them.

    Buddy did great duty for the Hawks in the GF – tackling, bumping, doing the hard stuff, running the legs off his opponents using his great tank, helping keep the ball in the forward 50, drawing the most mobile and effective defender, etc, etc, etc. 18 possessions and some great second efforts.

    The Hawks will miss him.

  4. Diogenes & psyclaw

    Grattan quotes Julia in The Conversation.

    [Condemning the “infantile conversation about gender wars”, she said:

    “You just feel like saying, ‘well if it was your daughter and she was putting up with sexist abuse at work, what would you advise her to do?’ Because apparently if she complains, she is playing the victim, and playing gender wars, and if she doesn’t complain, then she really is a victim. … We’ve got to be able to say… strongly to women and girls, ‘You’ve got a right to an environment that treats you with respect, treats you as an equal and raising your voice about that isn’t starting a war, it isn’t playing the victim, it’s just asking for what simply is right.”]

  5. Dio

    ‘BW

    It goes with her comments about the extreme pain she felt at being dumped.’

    I am not sure what you mean by ‘goes with’. For what it is worth, my interpretation of ‘extreme pain’ was just that. In emotional terms, it hurt and it hurt a lot. That can be a fact without it also automatically turning into a ‘murderous rage’.

  6. Boerwar

    Now there is talk that buddy is being offered a 9 year deal worth 10 million dollars! That does not even make sense

  7. William Bowe@54

    Bemused, the problem with that as I see it is that you’re singling out one of Labor’s best-performing divisions as perpetrators of an epic failure, just because of the random circumstance of an extremely popular independent being in the field.

    So what are they doing about it?

  8. In breaking news our fearless PM announces that Big Bird is yellow. From the OO

    [TONY Abbott has moved to soften his rhetoric on key Coalition boatpeople pledges, arguing Indonesian co-operation is the key to beating people-smugglers ]

  9. The point about Mr X is a fair one, but with a primary in the mid 30’s it makes getting 3 quotas nearly impossible and in the right circumstances puts 2 quotas in play.

    The fragmentation of the major party vote and the accompanying alienation inherent in parties like the AMEP,PUP etc suggests the end point should be a change to preferential voting.

  10. Brandis is such a monument to hypocrisy.

    I think its pretty obvious he has to resign as A-G.

    [The serious part is that as a self-appointed guardian of the public good, a role he assumed with a pomposity even his party colleagues snigger about, the new Attorney-General had an obligation to be above reproach himself.

    His pursuit of the erstwhile speaker Peter Slipper for among other things using parliamentary travel entitlements to visit Canberra region wineries had a near evangelical tinge as he sought justice for the long-suffering taxpayer.

    Yet it now turns out that he hadn’t hesitated to put on the public tab his own attendance at the lavish private wedding of a friend and former right-wing radio opinionado, Michael Smith.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/george-brandis-flimsy-expenses-excuse-a-sad-reflection-on-a-wedding-20130930-2uoxu.html#ixzz2gRtHja1z

  11. poroti@63


    In breaking news our fearless PM announces that Big Bird is yellow. From the OO

    TONY Abbott has moved to soften his rhetoric on key Coalition boatpeople pledges, arguing Indonesian co-operation is the key to beating people-smugglers

    Think its pretty safe to go back to referring murdoch’s mob as the GG now. OO is so last month.

  12. denesedenese
    Tweet text

    Reply to @hdrebner @Jo_Barnes @newscomauHQ

    Image will appear as a link

    Jo Barnes ‏@Jo_Barnes 3m
    . @hdrebner @MarquisO @newscomauHQ So essentially what he’s said in that statement is he is paying the Indonesians to buy the boats for him?

    Expand
    ===============================================================

    did any one else read this

    in the editorial

  13. “@John_Hanna: There you go @rupertmurdoch.
    You now live in a country without a Government.
    All your wet dreams come true.”

  14. [Naomi Woodley ‏@naomiwoodley 1m
    The count in #Fairfax has finished with Clive Palmer 7 votes ahead. The AEC says there’ll now be a formal recount of the over 89k votes.]

  15. Indeed Diogenes. I always look forward not backwards.

    I think the interesting thing about 2013=2016 will be:

    1) How much the ALP embraces genuine reform – the Dreyfus option as Latham the Seer has put it. Or will all the usual suspects line up in 2016.

    2) How much the Liberals will make tough choices. As much as things like NDIS and Gonski are worthy in theory will the Liberals have the courage to kill them off ?

    3) Can Abbott truly stop the boats?

    4) What Clive will do in the Senate? Will the Senators follow his line etc?

  16. [There are a lot of embittered people here.]

    We will get worse with each week of Abbott just like we did with each week of Howard. We will then expect absolutely ridiculous outcomes from the first two weeks of the next labor PM.

    Rudd, Gillard etc etc we kill our own.

  17. ☵ Z☰N Digital ® ☲ ‏@z3n_digital 11m
    Tony Abbott calls Asylum Seekers a Scurge and says they are up to No Good in Indonesia..http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-01/everything-on-the-table-during-discussions-with-indonesians/4991428 … #auspol #asylum

    Expand

    ==========================================================

    certainly know the correct thing to say to people in their own country
    one could interpret that another way if u live in that country

  18. Gillard refers to the “pain” she suffered after being dumped as Leader.

    Does she think Rudd may have, just may have, suffered similar pain when he was dumped?

    Stop whinging and looking for sympathy, Gillard, and go back to the US.

  19. WeWantPaul@79

    Emotion is the enemy of reason.


    Reason is overrated particularly the way the liberals do reason.

    I didn’t know they did.

    Certainly, their thinking seems to be pre-scientific.

  20. could it also be read that abbott is saying the ind,

    are not handling the smugglers issue that well

    if I was an ind, that’s how I would take it

    such political correctness not

  21. I won’t bother to open this news.com.au article but it must have upset someone at News Corp.

    [ABC runs vile Abbott sex-act tweet

    THE ABC’s flagship panel show QandA has published a sickening and degrading sexual tweet on their website about PM Tony Abbott.

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/#ixzz2gRxJCJhy ]

  22. It is very funny listening to the Liberals talking about all those talented women knocking on the door.

    The Liberals don’t have a glass ceiling, they have a big fat men-only door.

  23. Abbott has capitulated on his pre-election policy of boat turn-backs and buy-backs which are now blatant broken promises.

    The ALPs PNG solution has been embraced in full, as it should be.

  24. so the minister for womans affairs

    only takes business MEN not woman to ind,

    remember how Julia took all gender with her to china

    hypocrite

    minister for womans [affairs]

    laugh laugh

  25. Turn backs the boats – promise broken
    Buy the boats – promise broken
    First week in an Aboriginal Community – promise broken
    No excuses – promise broken
    No surprises – promise broken

  26. “”The change in attitude over carbon pricing & direct action is strange.””

    The dumb public thing the electricity priced are going to FALL?.

  27. Abbott has resiled from the sovereignty-threatening plan to buy boats in Indonesia?

    Good to see that Bapak Abbott has got his trainer wheels on.

    It is a pity he had to trash the national interest to learn this basic stuff.

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