The last of the major polls go as follows:
• A Newspoll survey conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from over 2500 respondents has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 46% and the Greens on 9%, for a commanding Coalition lead of 54-46 on two-party preferred. Full breakdowns here.
• Nielsen concurs with Newspoll on both major parties’ primary votes in its poll of 1431 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, but has the Greens two points higher at 11%. Both The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald have exasperatingly declined to provide breakdowns, but from what I can gather from the printed copy, the poll has the Coalition ahead 56-44 in New South Wales and behind 51-49 in Victoria, while in Queensland Labor’s primary vote is on just 27% (under two Senate quotas, for those of you with an eye on that kind of thing).
• Morgan has a poll of 4937 respondents conducted by SMS, online and live interview phone polling which has Labor at just 31.5%, with the Coalition on 44%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. This pans out to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but to 54.5-45.5 on the previous election preferences method used by Nielsen and Newspoll.
BludgerTrack has been updated with all of the above, and it continues to offer a rosier assessment for Labor than the betting markets in particular would suggest (though note that I’ve knocked on the head my idea of revising the preference model to grant Labor a bigger share of the Palmer United Party vote in Queensland, which has made two seats’ difference). As I’ve noted a number of times, this is mostly down to the consistent tendency of electorate-level polling to produce worse results for Labor than that national and statewide polling that are the bread and butter of BludgerTrack. To illustrate this point, and also for your general convenience, I offer below a complete listing to all such polls published during the campaign. Averages are also provided for the swings in each state, and by each pollster. What this suggests is that the automated phone polling by Galaxy, which has generally produced highly plausible results, has not been too far out of line with national polling, and it has generally offered highly plausible results. The live interview phone polling of Newspoll looks to have performed similarly, but that’s because its sample includes the unusual cases of New England and Lyne. Beyond that three automated phone pollsters who are relatively new to the game, and whose consistent findings of huge Coalition swings should accordingly be treated with caution.
Key: NP=Newspoll, RT=ReachTEL, Gal.=Galaxy, Lon.=Lonergan, JWS=JWS Research.
NEW SOUTH WALES N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Dobell/RobertsonNP 13/8 505 35 50 8 46 -7 Lindsay Lon. 14/8 1038 32 60 3 36 -15 Lyne NP 14/8 504 26 51 7 41 +3 New England NP 14/8 504 24 53 5 34 +1 Kingsford Smith RT 15/8 610 38 47 10 48 -7 McMahon RT 15/8 631 45 50 2 47 -11 Blaxland RT 15/8 636 50 47 3 52 -10 Bennelong RT 15/8 631 28 64 8 35 -12 Macquarie JWS 15/8 710 35 51 8 45 -4 Lindsay JWS 15/8 578 35 57 3 39 -12 Greenway JWS 15/8 570 44 46 1 51 0 Banks JWS 15/8 542 43 50 4 47 -4 Werriwa Gal. 20/8 548 41 48 5 48 -9 Reid Gal. 20/8 557 38 50 9 47 -6 Parramatta Gal. 20/8 561 44 45 4 50 -4 Lindsay Gal. 20/8 566 41 50 3 46 -5 Greenway Gal. 20/8 585 45 46 3 49 -2 Barton Gal. 20/8 551 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 557 40 47 6 48 -3 Barton Gal. 20/8 575 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 575 40 47 6 48 -3 K-S/Page/E-M NP 26/8 601 37 47 11 48 -7 ALP marginals* NP 26/8 800 34 52 7 43 -9 McMahon JWS 28/8 482 44 52 3 47 -11 Average swing -6.1 * Parramatta/Reid/Banks/Lindsay/Greenway. VICTORIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Deakin RT 15/8 619 36 50 13 47 -4 Corangamite RT 15/8 633 36 54 10 44 -6 Melbourne RT 15/8 860 35 24 35 Indi RT 15/8 611 18 47 6 Corangamite JWS 15/8 587 36 48 10 47 -3 Aston JWS 15/8 577 29 59 8 37 -12 La Trobe Gal. 20/8 575 36 45 12 49 -3 Corangamite Gal. 20/8 575 35 52 9 44 -6 Chisholm Gal. 20/8 575 46 45 7 48 -8 ALP marginals* NP 28/8 800 34 47 13 47 -4 McEwen JWS 28/8 540 35 47 6 45 -14 Bendigo JWS 28/8 588 40 40 9 51 -9 Average swing -6.9 * La Trobe/Deakin/Corangamite QUEENSLAND N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Griffith RT 05/8 702 48 43 8 46 -12 Forde RT 08/8 725 40 48 4 46 -2 Forde Lon. 15/8 1160 34 56 4 40 -8 Forde JWS 15/8 568 33 54 4 40 -8 Brisbane JWS 15/8 607 36 50 9 46 -3 LNP marginals* NP 20/8 1382 32 54 5 40 -8 Forde NP 20/8 502 38 48 5 46 -2 Griffith Lon. 21/8 958 38 47 11 48 -10 Griffith NP 22/8 500 37 48 12 48 -10 Lilley JWS 28/8 757 40 48 5 46 -7 Griffith JWS 28/8 551 48 40 7 57 -1 Blair Gal. 29/8 604 39 40 8 50 -4 Dawson Gal. 29/8 550 34 48 4 43 -5 Griffith Gal. 29/8 655 41 37 12 54 -4 Herbert Gal. 29/8 589 36 47 6 45 -3 ALP marginals** NP 30/8 800 38 42 8 49 -4 Average swing -5.9 * Brisbane/Forde/Longman/Herbert/Dawson/Bonner/Flynn/Fisher ** Moreton/Petrie/Lilley/Capricornia/Blair/Rankin/Oxley WESTERN AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Brand Gal. 29/8 660 42 42 10 52 -1 Hasluck Gal. 29/8 553 34 46 10 45 -4 Perth Gal. 29/8 550 47 35 13 58 +2 Average swing -1.2 SOUTH AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Hindmarsh Gal. 22/8 586 41 44 10 50 -6 Wakefield Gal. 26/8 575 44 35 7 55 -6 Adelaide Gal. 29/8 571 40 39 12 54 -4 Average swing -5.0 TASMANIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Bass RT 22/8 541 30 52 8 42 -15 Braddon RT 22/8 588 36 51 4 43 -14 Denison RT 22/8 563 19 24 11 Franklin RT 22/8 544 30 39 16 51 -10 Lyons RT 22/8 549 30 47 11 44 -18 Bass RT 03/9 659 28 54 10 41 -16 Average swing -14.7 AVERAGE SWING BY POLLSTER N SWING Galaxy 22 -4.3 Newspoll 10 -4.7 JWS Research 13 -6.8 ReachTEL 16 -8.6 Lonergan 3 -11.3
According to the Morgan exit poll, 23 per cent of the primary vote was green/palmer/other. That seems very high to me. Be very interesting to see where preferences flow.
Mick77 @ 451…
“And in true democratic fashion, Labor rusted-ons should acknowledge that as from tonight Tony Abbott is the Prime Minister of all of us, of our country he’s OUR PM.That’s democracy at work in case you’ve forgotten.”
No way Mick. Tony Abbott is NOT my PM …he belongs body & soul to “home town hero” and now American citizen, Mr Rupert Murdoch …
Seems liberals are getting fixation of Rudd/Gillard:
Scott Ludlam @SenatorLudlam 1m
WTAF #ausvotes http://instagram.com/p/d8VZ8JoQ2L/
601 – this is the unknown … why I think there will be some surprises in store…
Read this with a Ray Warren voice:
“the voters are going to belt leadershit” 😐
It is indeed a great festival of democracy.
As usual,the HTVers from all parties got along pretty well, some humurous ribbing aside.
I wouldnt miss it.
Bill Shorten is upbeat because he sees his path to the Labor leadership being cleared by the election result.
BK
Thanks, have managed to get another Senate vote for ALP this morning at coffee before the real Nat supporters arrived 😀 Overall 5 votes for ALP in Senate which is an achievement with the people concerned
Living in a small town know so many of the people and was sad to see people just taking “pruneface’s” card only and actually saying to ALP guy “no not yours” which is why I went over and spoke to him as I took his card.
Just come from a booth in Hindmarsh that was last time very close to 50-50 2PP – bad feeling for ALP there which is a surprise, I expected it to go Lib 2PP by a little but this one really zinging by the feel.
Sorry can’t reveal which booth as may disclose my identity.
I haven’t voted yet.
I’ll go when they just about close 🙂
Revised Blackburnpseph prediction based on the Newspoll state by state. Damned ugly for the ALP – Queensland could be total wipe out for Labor except that Katter could help them keep Capricornia – Even Oxley could be in play.
Coalition 103, ALP 42, Others 5 – Katter, Wilkie, Bandt plus Indi, Fairfax
NSW Libs +12
Independent to Coalition: Lyne, New England
Coalition to win: Banks, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Greenway, Kingsford Smith, Lindsay, Reid, Robertson,
Libs to win 2 of: Page, Richmond, Parramatta,
Victoria : Libs +5
Melbourne to stay Green
Coalition to win: Corangamite, Deakin, La Trobe, Chisholm
Libs to win 2 of: Bendigo, Bruce, McEwen, Melbourne Ports
Indi – think Mirabella might lose it.
Queensland Libs +5
Coalition to win: Lilley, Moreton, Petrie, Griffith, Blair, Rankin
KAP will help Labor hold Capricornia
Oxley too close to call,
Fairfax: I just think Clive might do it.
Tasmania: Libs +3
Coalition to win: Bass , Braddon.
One of Lyons or Franklin
SA: Libs +2
Libs to win Hindmarsh, Adelaide
NT: Libs +1
Libs to win Lingiari
“@GCobber99: @ABCNews24 say Rudds gone to ground & Abbott is campaigning BUT Rudd is at Brisbane town hall talking to people! our media is stuffed”
It seems the view on here about the seat of Adelaide has changed from it being a Labor retain to it being a Labor loss.
guytaur, that is terrible reporting.
I had heard it reported that Rudd had stopped campaigning because he had decided he had lost. He had dropped his previous plans to campaign for the whole day.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 5s
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (1PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48.5 L/NP 51.5 #ausvotes
So I decided to vote below the line. First problem is that the stupid paper is twice as wide as the voting booth. Why not have the candidates in two or three rows?
I numbered in the boxes and got to the end only to find I had the number 109 in it. There are 110 boxes. I looked through my numbering from start to finish, constantly having to flip the stupidly wide paper over, but couldn’t find my mistake. Ended up putting a 1 above the line just in case.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 42s
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (1PM update) Primary Votes: ALP 34.5 L/NP 42 GRN 11 PUP 5.5 #ausvotes
FWIW I managed to convince the girls at the hairdressers (none of whom have voted yet) to vote 1 ALP in the Senate. One is voting for Chub in the HoR because he’s hot and drives a top of the range Range Rover, another is voting Sex Party, and the salon owner is voting Liberal.
All would’ve voted for Allanah if she was Labor’s candidate here because they love her personality and she’s a great example for women. The other customers, esp me all concurred.
Exit polls are early this time?
Another gripe: no pencil sharpener. I hate writing into small boxes with a blunt pencil.
That exit poll is surprisingly encouraging. How accurate do Morgan’s tend to be?
All depends on the preferences, if the others vote is any indication.
[Seems liberals are getting fixation of Rudd/Gillard:]
How dare the farking Liberals remind us that Gillard the Dillard was our PM for the last 3 years!! The Cheek of it all!
We must do what the Labor Party wants us to do and look into the memory erase beam 🙂
[Another gripe: no pencil sharpener. I hate writing into small boxes with a blunt pencil.]
Use a knife! :p
What were the exit polls on the pre-poll voting again, anyone?
zoidlord@617
On those figures, a Labor/Green coalition would trump the L/NP !!!!
Not going to happen, I guess, but one can dream.
The best outcome would be for Labor to win Government, but Kevin Rudd to lose his seat.
Unfortunately, I think we are due for Tony Abbott PM, Julie Bishop FA, Joe Hockey Treasurer.
The stuff of nightmares.
Edi_Mahin
Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 12:45 pm | PERMALINK
Bill Shorten is upbeat because he sees his path to the Labor leadership being cleared by the election result.
———-ominous. short is problem not solution. how brazen to show form today. i am out of all parties present if shorten takes over. no union appointees – if murdoch and reinhart out of liberals then union caucasing from labor … rudd is only one middle of road.
Stood in line for 1hour 10 mins at Old Parliament House 🙂 worth it
shorten is like macdonald in nsw – destablise and then take control … shorten and arbib caused 2010 after all !!!!!
i accept shorten supporting rudd, welcome it ,,, but nothing more from him
@samanthahawley: Rudd arrives http://t.co/iKKig0IBrT
today is beginning one way or other of two exciting years ahead … either way abbott goes – enjoy his phyric day the accidental buffoon. 3 years of msm tirades leading up the murdoch billboards in campaign must have effect … no more
How shrill will the spiel be from the fibs regarding the SUBSTANTIALLY worse than we thought budget reality.
This is going to be depressing.
No tv or radio for me for the next 3 years.
[I had heard it reported that Rudd had stopped campaigning because he had decided he had lost. He had dropped his previous plans to campaign for the whole day.]
That’s beyond bad reporting into the realm of deliberate mendacity
They’d make great offsiders for an autocrat, our media
Okay I’ve decided how I’m going to vote… it will be:
1. KAP (so they get my vote money)
2. LNP (so they get my vote)
And then anyone after that is kind of irrelevent…
Onto the senate… probably vote KAP in the senate with the hope of stealing an extra Labor senate seat though this could backfire because KAP preferences feed firstly to Labor.
Interesting days!
@tim_chr: Best. MT @JohnHillNews: ALP boosts Jaymes Diaz’s profile on the big screen outside Greenway polling booths. #ausvotes http://t.co/ikwZ1OeT5J
“@sspencer_63: The 1PM exclusive @roymorganonline @channeltennews exit poll has the 2PP narrowing to 48.5-51.5. Primaries Unchanged on 34.5 42 11”
Looks like between 12pm update and 1pm update, the liberals lost a 0.5% 2PP.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 59m
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (12PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 L/NP 52 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 17m
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (1PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48.5 L/NP 51.5 #ausvotes
Exit Poll (1PM update) Primary Votes: ALP 34.5 L/NP 42 GRN 11 PUP 5.5 #ausvotes
34.5 + 8.8 + 1.1 + 3.5 = 47.9
42 + 4.4 + 5.7 = 52.1
I think the GRN vote is quite high.
[The best outcome would be for Labor to win Government, but Kevin Rudd to lose his seat.]
You Rudd haters really should go back on your meds.
ZOILORDS – Does anyone know how the exit polls allocate preferences?
Do we have a field report from Baghdad Bob, about the glorious victory unfolding?
@K17/639
I’m not sure, you will have to ask the experts here.
I just like to report 😀
mendacity is a word I am not familar with, where is a dictionary.
mendacity
1.
the quality of being mendacious; untruthfulness; tendency to lie.
2.
an instance of lying; falsehood.
I would hope it is a case of gross incompetence rather than something with malicious intent but it is completely dodgy no matter what the cause.
Anyway I learnt a new word, thank you.
On other matters, seems NASA is doing a launch today/tonight:
NASA @NASA 1m
Spacecraft checks continue to remain ‘go’ at 7 minutes until launch of @NASALADEE tonight from @NASA_Wallops. Watch: http://www.nasa.gov/ladee
47.9 * .7 = 33.5 + 12.9 = 46.4 ALP
52.1 * .7 = 36.5 + 17.1 = 53.6 LNP
hmmm
Just voted in Hindmarsh. Admittedly at the most Liberal voting little booth, but I sensed baseball bats. Oh and no Sausage sizzle….ripped off!
[Do we have a field report from Baghdad Bob, about the glorious victory unfolding?]
Baghdad bob reports:
THERE ARE NO LNP VOTES WITHIN 5% OF ANY ELECTORATE IN AUSTRALIA
The other thing is, I have no idea how Morgan does exit polling – but I haven’t seen it terribly accurate before.
Hence my comments last night about it being a waste of money.
Did all the pup htv cards end up preferencing alp near the bottom? Who was at number 2?
Sorry I didn’t lock in my final prediction last night. Here it is:
http://carey-r-moore.tumblr.com/post/60507887240/commencement-and-prediction
Be warned, some of it is a little wild (especially the senate) but all have been based on some sound logic. I thought I would take some long shots in a few cases but otherwise, it’s mostly playing it conservatively.
The mainstream media is fuacked.
If we can poll in the 47s it’s a monumental performance.
You watch the Greens get in the 8s, I’m hoping 7s 😀