The last of the major polls go as follows:
• A Newspoll survey conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from over 2500 respondents has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 46% and the Greens on 9%, for a commanding Coalition lead of 54-46 on two-party preferred. Full breakdowns here.
• Nielsen concurs with Newspoll on both major parties’ primary votes in its poll of 1431 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, but has the Greens two points higher at 11%. Both The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald have exasperatingly declined to provide breakdowns, but from what I can gather from the printed copy, the poll has the Coalition ahead 56-44 in New South Wales and behind 51-49 in Victoria, while in Queensland Labor’s primary vote is on just 27% (under two Senate quotas, for those of you with an eye on that kind of thing).
• Morgan has a poll of 4937 respondents conducted by SMS, online and live interview phone polling which has Labor at just 31.5%, with the Coalition on 44%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. This pans out to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but to 54.5-45.5 on the previous election preferences method used by Nielsen and Newspoll.
BludgerTrack has been updated with all of the above, and it continues to offer a rosier assessment for Labor than the betting markets in particular would suggest (though note that I’ve knocked on the head my idea of revising the preference model to grant Labor a bigger share of the Palmer United Party vote in Queensland, which has made two seats’ difference). As I’ve noted a number of times, this is mostly down to the consistent tendency of electorate-level polling to produce worse results for Labor than that national and statewide polling that are the bread and butter of BludgerTrack. To illustrate this point, and also for your general convenience, I offer below a complete listing to all such polls published during the campaign. Averages are also provided for the swings in each state, and by each pollster. What this suggests is that the automated phone polling by Galaxy, which has generally produced highly plausible results, has not been too far out of line with national polling, and it has generally offered highly plausible results. The live interview phone polling of Newspoll looks to have performed similarly, but that’s because its sample includes the unusual cases of New England and Lyne. Beyond that three automated phone pollsters who are relatively new to the game, and whose consistent findings of huge Coalition swings should accordingly be treated with caution.
Key: NP=Newspoll, RT=ReachTEL, Gal.=Galaxy, Lon.=Lonergan, JWS=JWS Research.
NEW SOUTH WALES N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Dobell/RobertsonNP 13/8 505 35 50 8 46 -7 Lindsay Lon. 14/8 1038 32 60 3 36 -15 Lyne NP 14/8 504 26 51 7 41 +3 New England NP 14/8 504 24 53 5 34 +1 Kingsford Smith RT 15/8 610 38 47 10 48 -7 McMahon RT 15/8 631 45 50 2 47 -11 Blaxland RT 15/8 636 50 47 3 52 -10 Bennelong RT 15/8 631 28 64 8 35 -12 Macquarie JWS 15/8 710 35 51 8 45 -4 Lindsay JWS 15/8 578 35 57 3 39 -12 Greenway JWS 15/8 570 44 46 1 51 0 Banks JWS 15/8 542 43 50 4 47 -4 Werriwa Gal. 20/8 548 41 48 5 48 -9 Reid Gal. 20/8 557 38 50 9 47 -6 Parramatta Gal. 20/8 561 44 45 4 50 -4 Lindsay Gal. 20/8 566 41 50 3 46 -5 Greenway Gal. 20/8 585 45 46 3 49 -2 Barton Gal. 20/8 551 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 557 40 47 6 48 -3 Barton Gal. 20/8 575 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 575 40 47 6 48 -3 K-S/Page/E-M NP 26/8 601 37 47 11 48 -7 ALP marginals* NP 26/8 800 34 52 7 43 -9 McMahon JWS 28/8 482 44 52 3 47 -11 Average swing -6.1 * Parramatta/Reid/Banks/Lindsay/Greenway. VICTORIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Deakin RT 15/8 619 36 50 13 47 -4 Corangamite RT 15/8 633 36 54 10 44 -6 Melbourne RT 15/8 860 35 24 35 Indi RT 15/8 611 18 47 6 Corangamite JWS 15/8 587 36 48 10 47 -3 Aston JWS 15/8 577 29 59 8 37 -12 La Trobe Gal. 20/8 575 36 45 12 49 -3 Corangamite Gal. 20/8 575 35 52 9 44 -6 Chisholm Gal. 20/8 575 46 45 7 48 -8 ALP marginals* NP 28/8 800 34 47 13 47 -4 McEwen JWS 28/8 540 35 47 6 45 -14 Bendigo JWS 28/8 588 40 40 9 51 -9 Average swing -6.9 * La Trobe/Deakin/Corangamite QUEENSLAND N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Griffith RT 05/8 702 48 43 8 46 -12 Forde RT 08/8 725 40 48 4 46 -2 Forde Lon. 15/8 1160 34 56 4 40 -8 Forde JWS 15/8 568 33 54 4 40 -8 Brisbane JWS 15/8 607 36 50 9 46 -3 LNP marginals* NP 20/8 1382 32 54 5 40 -8 Forde NP 20/8 502 38 48 5 46 -2 Griffith Lon. 21/8 958 38 47 11 48 -10 Griffith NP 22/8 500 37 48 12 48 -10 Lilley JWS 28/8 757 40 48 5 46 -7 Griffith JWS 28/8 551 48 40 7 57 -1 Blair Gal. 29/8 604 39 40 8 50 -4 Dawson Gal. 29/8 550 34 48 4 43 -5 Griffith Gal. 29/8 655 41 37 12 54 -4 Herbert Gal. 29/8 589 36 47 6 45 -3 ALP marginals** NP 30/8 800 38 42 8 49 -4 Average swing -5.9 * Brisbane/Forde/Longman/Herbert/Dawson/Bonner/Flynn/Fisher ** Moreton/Petrie/Lilley/Capricornia/Blair/Rankin/Oxley WESTERN AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Brand Gal. 29/8 660 42 42 10 52 -1 Hasluck Gal. 29/8 553 34 46 10 45 -4 Perth Gal. 29/8 550 47 35 13 58 +2 Average swing -1.2 SOUTH AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Hindmarsh Gal. 22/8 586 41 44 10 50 -6 Wakefield Gal. 26/8 575 44 35 7 55 -6 Adelaide Gal. 29/8 571 40 39 12 54 -4 Average swing -5.0 TASMANIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Bass RT 22/8 541 30 52 8 42 -15 Braddon RT 22/8 588 36 51 4 43 -14 Denison RT 22/8 563 19 24 11 Franklin RT 22/8 544 30 39 16 51 -10 Lyons RT 22/8 549 30 47 11 44 -18 Bass RT 03/9 659 28 54 10 41 -16 Average swing -14.7 AVERAGE SWING BY POLLSTER N SWING Galaxy 22 -4.3 Newspoll 10 -4.7 JWS Research 13 -6.8 ReachTEL 16 -8.6 Lonergan 3 -11.3
Jackol
[The Senate paper was a true chore to fill out below the line. I’ve always prided myself on taking care when voting, but getting from about preference 40 (which was about the last preference I felt even vaguely positive about) to 110 was … a donkey voting chore which I paid almost no attention to at all. That system has to be changed.]
Yes, Antony Green wants it changed too, but how? Optional preferences is the obvious way, but that might open the door to the same for the HoR (and just one more step in the same direction is the more democratic optional voting). It’s unlikely both major parties would agree to that. Another suggestion is raising the bar to becoming registered as a candidate so there aren’t as many.
[quote]34.From the looks of their website it seems Morgan will be doing rolling exit polls throughout the day.
I get an ALP 2PP of 48.3 on those primary figures, so given previous exit polls’ bias and more pre-poll votes this time 54-46 looks about right.
[/quote]
It will certainly skew the results further right than indicate by the exit polls, but I’m not sure if it will skew them THAT far.
Also, no results from WA yet which will skew the results further right
I just voted in a BER school multipurpose facility at a local private school – looked fantastic much better than anything I’d ever had at a school. It will probably be about 66% liberal – the irony did not escape me.
[Did all the pup htv cards end up preferencing alp near the bottom? Who was at number 2?]
Not sure, but I do know that LNP were ahead of all HTV cards for PUP, and in most seats in QLD – the LNP candidate is above the Lab counterpart.
Of course, I guess we’re going to get anecdotal interpretations of mood from people’s visit to the polling booths all day. “Oh the Labor HTV people looked happy and busy but the Lib ones didn’t!” “It’s clear everybody was eager to kick the government out!”
Wal – I think we need to be really careful about any of these polls or exits – part of the reason why I’m not expecting the blow out is the polls are largely guessing where these preferences are flowing
The deed which cannot be undone has been done!
So on this lovely sunny day here in Melbourne all was pleasant but something was missing.
Where was the photo of Tony Abbott.
Are the Liberals unable or unwilling or maybe the camera broke while taking the photo to show his lovely face.
The ALP had a photo of Kevin as i suspect they would have had a photo of Gillard.
[ Did all the pup htv cards end up preferencing alp near the bottom? Who was at number 2? ]
Didn’t see a PUP htv but the ALP’s had PUP at number 2.
I love our local voting booth the old Lib lady was looking as bored and lonely as usual 🙂
I shall make my predictions:
House of Reps:
LNP: 89 seats
ALP: 58 seats
Oth: 3 seats: Katter, Wilkie, Bandt.
2PP: LNP 52.9% ALP 47.1%
I hope this is plausible. The truth is I don’t really follow politics very closely any more and don’t really know what I’m talking about.
zoidlord 643 – great launch. I didn’t even realise they launched orbital stuff from there on the Virginia coast. One of my uncles saw a night launch – Apollo 17 I think – and said it was really spectacular.
[I hope this is plausible. The truth is I don’t really follow politics very closely any more and don’t really know what I’m talking about.]
You are in very good company here.
Carey:
Thanks for posting your predictions on the election.
The only question I have is Eden Monaro, where Kelly is reportedly a popular local member.
But, when the swing is on, it’s on.
From what I saw and heard from Rudd in the campaign it “seemed to me” that at times he sounded a bit fake. Other times more natural. Not as polished as 2007.
Yeah it looks a touch closer than the final major polls had it, even factoring in pre polls. Low 53. Does depend a lot on unknown pref flows of course.
All I want out of this election is for Sarah Hanson Young to lose her senate spot.
mexicanbeemer
Interesting about the lack the mad monk’s ugly mug, it was the same at the booth I went to. The only photos of him were in “If he wins. You lose.” posters. Lots of Kevin posters
confessions, my feeling is that EM will be close, but Kelly will not quite hold on.
[All I want out of this election is for Sarah Hanson Young to lose her senate spot.]
The Greens were trotting out some numbers saying she’s polling 17% yesterday. I’m sticking to my commitment to eat my hat if she polls that.
[confessions
Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 1:36 pm | PERMALINK
Carey:
Thanks for posting your predictions on the election.
The only question I have is Eden Monaro, where Kelly is reportedly a popular local member.]
Mike Kelly is a great member, but we toss good members regardless of party.
@Rocket Rocket/660
Yeah they do 🙂
@Nemspy/665
I want to see Sophie loose her seat!
Hello all. Just back from my local polling booth in Sturt. Everyone was remarkably polite, despite a longish queue at times. Liberal staffers and banners greatly outnumbered Labor ones, and judging by acceptance of HTV cards, Pyne will be easily returned.
The SA Senate paper was laughably long. More a toilet roll than a tablecloth. People were making jokes about it. The Senate process MUST be reformed, or both major parties will lose more primary votes. Whether it is their fault or not, they will get blamed for it.
Of course, after today/tomorrow I’m not likely to return 🙂
Its only interesting when its close.
[All I want out of this election is for Sarah Hanson Young to lose her senate spot.]
I thought that’s what I wanted – she is the most irritating, self-righteous, horrible example of the unreconstructed left imaginable – but there has been something about her underdog campaign against that populist wanker Xenophon which has me secretly wanting her to win, even if I know it will mean another 6 years of having to turn my radio off every time her voice comes on.
Triton – agree the Senate paper was a chore. The person giving it to me said to fill above or below the line, and I said “or both” and they said “Oh we can’t tell people that!”
There were just so many people I wanted to put last it did my brain in, so I sort of lost interest, but right near the end of the ballot I saw the CEC, and so they had to be 96 and 97. And I put an “above the line” in as well for insurance in case I stuffed up!
Voting in Wentworth, no pics of either Kevin’s mug or Tony’s mug (or Christine’s!) … just lots of Malcolm, and a few of Di (the ALP candidate) and the Greens Candidate for Wentworth and the Senate.
[Its not landslide territory.]
Just for the record, how are we defining Landslide (or Ruddbath)?
Labor getting less than 50 seats?
Whilst i do have Edan-Monaro as a Liberal gain but if Kelly has done a good job at local level which is a bit hard to tell from here but if he has and the same applies to seats like Page and Richmond the swing may be less than the Sydney swing.
Another small factor which may spill over is the situation in Indi for voters might say well Kelly is good, we don’t want someone that might be like Sophie.
I think what Antony Green has said is that you should be able to write preferences above the line (which would flow down each group). I used to wonder how the “ungrouped independents” would fit in, but I suppose you could slo number them, in any case there were only 2 on the Vic ballot as people have realised the real power is in setting up a few “microparties”. Also, do these have to be registered parties with 500 members?
And I can’t stand the groups who won’t even declare themselves to be “Nazis for a wetter Mars” or whatever, and knowing one of those people in an “anonymous” column wants me to put them even lower.
ltep:
I’d love kelly to hang on, but suspect it will also be swept away.
Agree re SHY too. I don’t accept 17% figures for her either.
Jackol
Traveling around Kooyong it all seems to be about Josh which is understandable as he has been an active local MP just a pity he backed Tone in the leadership ballot.
Bludgertrack has NSW swinging 4.0%, which means that there must be somewhere swinging less than that. I’m guessing Eden-Monaro will be one of the places where Labor gets a below-average swing, so he might well hang on even if the NSW swing is a bit above that.
Allocating preferences above the line would be a good compromise.
One way of getting around the ungrouped would be to only need to allocate preferences for the number of spots available.
@madwixxy: Disgraceful behavior from the Libs in Greenway
Diaz has thugs working for him physically threatening a woman http://t.co/XuEGlFfUIr #auspol
Should be another Morgan update about 2pm.
I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Greenway defied the swing and was held.
Could be the Makin of this election
[Triton – agree the Senate paper was a chore. The person giving it to me said to fill above or below the line, and I said “or both” and they said “Oh we can’t tell people that!”
There were just so many people I wanted to put last it did my brain in, so I sort of lost interest, but right near the end of the ballot I saw the CEC, and so they had to be 96 and 97. And I put an “above the line” in as well for insurance in case I stuffed up!]
What a lot of self-indulgent wankery. Just put the 1 in the box you want, and let someone else use the goddam pencil.
Just voted in Reid.
The mood of the labor HTV people was grim yet realistic.
I wished the comrades the best of luck and had a snag on the way out.
I have lost it – reading the CEC website! And guess what, we should have our own space program, aiming for the Moon and Mars. And all those right-wingers funnelling preferences to the CEC would be a bit disturbed to find that rather than avid monarchists, the CEC believe that the British Royal Family are the devils incarnate and behind all the “classic” conspiracy theories! (sorry, not theories, world conspiracies)
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 30s
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (2PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 L/NP 52 #ausvotes
re indications at polling booths
__________________
a lifetime of handing out ALP HTV cards has taught me that
the public response to same is NO INDICATION OF ANYTHING
THE MOOD.THE DAY THE TYPE OF VOTERS…ALL CAN MISLEAD AND ANY ATTEMPT TO GAUGE THE VOTE IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY
though Morgan’s exit polls may be interesting…anything else as an indicator…forget it !
“@GhostWhoVotes: #Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (2PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 L/NP 52 #ausvotes”
“@GhostWhoVotes: #Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (2PM update) Primary Votes: ALP 34.5 L/NP 42 GRN 10.5 PUP 5.5 #ausvotes”
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 19s
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (2PM update) Primary Votes: ALP 34.5 L/NP 42 GRN 10.5 PUP 5.5 #ausvotes
“@firstdogonmoon: Furniture saved! RT @GhostWhoVotes: #Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (2PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 L/NP 52 #ausvotes”
“Just put the 1 in the box you want, and let someone else use the goddam pencil.”
I did that once, and it helped put Steve Fielding into the Senate!
[Stephen Spencer @sspencer_63 1h
Exit polls obviously can’t include the 2.5 million early votes. 1.5 million pre-polls will be counted tonight but 1 million postals not.]
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 1h
@sspencer_63 They can. They’re not literally “exit”. In fact Morgan has already been polling early voters.]
Interesting exit poll.
42% seems a bit low for a thumping landslide.
if that holds i don’t see the LNP getting 100 seats.
pithicus@663
I don’t think Rudd changed. I think more people just saw through him the second time round.
From those exit polls remembering the weighting factor control of the Senate looks more likely to be BOP of Greens and Labor than a bunch of Independents.
It’s funny about the lack of pics of the 2 leaders, and goes to show what a … screwball election this has been.
The entire election has been about the leaders. The Kevin/Julia/Kevin show has ensured the ALP campaign was all about Kevin. The LNP have just lined up behind Tony.
And yet neither are considered an ‘adornment’ to the on-the-ground advertisements at the polling booths.
You’ve got to laugh.
Lol – we know what an exit poll entails – thanks mumbles…
MB – I never did see 100 seats – even 90 was pushing it for me..
Some intel I have suggests that the Libs in Victoria are very much of the view that the swing there will be a lot smaller than expected – but that the swing in QLD could be a little bigger.