The last of the major polls go as follows:
• A Newspoll survey conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from over 2500 respondents has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 46% and the Greens on 9%, for a commanding Coalition lead of 54-46 on two-party preferred. Full breakdowns here.
• Nielsen concurs with Newspoll on both major parties’ primary votes in its poll of 1431 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, but has the Greens two points higher at 11%. Both The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald have exasperatingly declined to provide breakdowns, but from what I can gather from the printed copy, the poll has the Coalition ahead 56-44 in New South Wales and behind 51-49 in Victoria, while in Queensland Labor’s primary vote is on just 27% (under two Senate quotas, for those of you with an eye on that kind of thing).
• Morgan has a poll of 4937 respondents conducted by SMS, online and live interview phone polling which has Labor at just 31.5%, with the Coalition on 44%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. This pans out to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but to 54.5-45.5 on the previous election preferences method used by Nielsen and Newspoll.
BludgerTrack has been updated with all of the above, and it continues to offer a rosier assessment for Labor than the betting markets in particular would suggest (though note that I’ve knocked on the head my idea of revising the preference model to grant Labor a bigger share of the Palmer United Party vote in Queensland, which has made two seats’ difference). As I’ve noted a number of times, this is mostly down to the consistent tendency of electorate-level polling to produce worse results for Labor than that national and statewide polling that are the bread and butter of BludgerTrack. To illustrate this point, and also for your general convenience, I offer below a complete listing to all such polls published during the campaign. Averages are also provided for the swings in each state, and by each pollster. What this suggests is that the automated phone polling by Galaxy, which has generally produced highly plausible results, has not been too far out of line with national polling, and it has generally offered highly plausible results. The live interview phone polling of Newspoll looks to have performed similarly, but that’s because its sample includes the unusual cases of New England and Lyne. Beyond that three automated phone pollsters who are relatively new to the game, and whose consistent findings of huge Coalition swings should accordingly be treated with caution.
Key: NP=Newspoll, RT=ReachTEL, Gal.=Galaxy, Lon.=Lonergan, JWS=JWS Research.
NEW SOUTH WALES N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Dobell/RobertsonNP 13/8 505 35 50 8 46 -7 Lindsay Lon. 14/8 1038 32 60 3 36 -15 Lyne NP 14/8 504 26 51 7 41 +3 New England NP 14/8 504 24 53 5 34 +1 Kingsford Smith RT 15/8 610 38 47 10 48 -7 McMahon RT 15/8 631 45 50 2 47 -11 Blaxland RT 15/8 636 50 47 3 52 -10 Bennelong RT 15/8 631 28 64 8 35 -12 Macquarie JWS 15/8 710 35 51 8 45 -4 Lindsay JWS 15/8 578 35 57 3 39 -12 Greenway JWS 15/8 570 44 46 1 51 0 Banks JWS 15/8 542 43 50 4 47 -4 Werriwa Gal. 20/8 548 41 48 5 48 -9 Reid Gal. 20/8 557 38 50 9 47 -6 Parramatta Gal. 20/8 561 44 45 4 50 -4 Lindsay Gal. 20/8 566 41 50 3 46 -5 Greenway Gal. 20/8 585 45 46 3 49 -2 Barton Gal. 20/8 551 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 557 40 47 6 48 -3 Barton Gal. 20/8 575 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 575 40 47 6 48 -3 K-S/Page/E-M NP 26/8 601 37 47 11 48 -7 ALP marginals* NP 26/8 800 34 52 7 43 -9 McMahon JWS 28/8 482 44 52 3 47 -11 Average swing -6.1 * Parramatta/Reid/Banks/Lindsay/Greenway. VICTORIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Deakin RT 15/8 619 36 50 13 47 -4 Corangamite RT 15/8 633 36 54 10 44 -6 Melbourne RT 15/8 860 35 24 35 Indi RT 15/8 611 18 47 6 Corangamite JWS 15/8 587 36 48 10 47 -3 Aston JWS 15/8 577 29 59 8 37 -12 La Trobe Gal. 20/8 575 36 45 12 49 -3 Corangamite Gal. 20/8 575 35 52 9 44 -6 Chisholm Gal. 20/8 575 46 45 7 48 -8 ALP marginals* NP 28/8 800 34 47 13 47 -4 McEwen JWS 28/8 540 35 47 6 45 -14 Bendigo JWS 28/8 588 40 40 9 51 -9 Average swing -6.9 * La Trobe/Deakin/Corangamite QUEENSLAND N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Griffith RT 05/8 702 48 43 8 46 -12 Forde RT 08/8 725 40 48 4 46 -2 Forde Lon. 15/8 1160 34 56 4 40 -8 Forde JWS 15/8 568 33 54 4 40 -8 Brisbane JWS 15/8 607 36 50 9 46 -3 LNP marginals* NP 20/8 1382 32 54 5 40 -8 Forde NP 20/8 502 38 48 5 46 -2 Griffith Lon. 21/8 958 38 47 11 48 -10 Griffith NP 22/8 500 37 48 12 48 -10 Lilley JWS 28/8 757 40 48 5 46 -7 Griffith JWS 28/8 551 48 40 7 57 -1 Blair Gal. 29/8 604 39 40 8 50 -4 Dawson Gal. 29/8 550 34 48 4 43 -5 Griffith Gal. 29/8 655 41 37 12 54 -4 Herbert Gal. 29/8 589 36 47 6 45 -3 ALP marginals** NP 30/8 800 38 42 8 49 -4 Average swing -5.9 * Brisbane/Forde/Longman/Herbert/Dawson/Bonner/Flynn/Fisher ** Moreton/Petrie/Lilley/Capricornia/Blair/Rankin/Oxley WESTERN AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Brand Gal. 29/8 660 42 42 10 52 -1 Hasluck Gal. 29/8 553 34 46 10 45 -4 Perth Gal. 29/8 550 47 35 13 58 +2 Average swing -1.2 SOUTH AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Hindmarsh Gal. 22/8 586 41 44 10 50 -6 Wakefield Gal. 26/8 575 44 35 7 55 -6 Adelaide Gal. 29/8 571 40 39 12 54 -4 Average swing -5.0 TASMANIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Bass RT 22/8 541 30 52 8 42 -15 Braddon RT 22/8 588 36 51 4 43 -14 Denison RT 22/8 563 19 24 11 Franklin RT 22/8 544 30 39 16 51 -10 Lyons RT 22/8 549 30 47 11 44 -18 Bass RT 03/9 659 28 54 10 41 -16 Average swing -14.7 AVERAGE SWING BY POLLSTER N SWING Galaxy 22 -4.3 Newspoll 10 -4.7 JWS Research 13 -6.8 ReachTEL 16 -8.6 Lonergan 3 -11.3
I think the Labor Party needs a Whitlam style overhaul and needs a positive whitlam style agenda. You lot won’t be able to out negative the Tories so why try?
Voted at Melbourne Town Hall. Such a circus, long queues, huge crowds, people handing out cards for every micro-party running and some not even running, but a great democratic event nevertheless.
zoid
Its not landslide territory.
[I’m firmly of the opinion that Rudd, and/or his supporters, brought on this loss.
by B.C.]
I think this is just a lazy cop out preferring to pander to your little plant of Rudd dislike in order to excuse the failure of another or look to honestly look where problem really came from.
The power brokers will be depending on people like you to cover their blame.
Shorten Presser
[Psephos
Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 11:57 am | Permalink
Voted at Melbourne Town Hall. Such a circus, long queues, huge crowds, people handing out cards for every micro-party running and some not even running, but a great democratic event nevertheless.]
Did you have a last-minute change of heart and vote for your Liberal candidate? 🙂
[142
wal kolla
Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 8:34 am | PERMALINK
Is My Say from Tasmania ?
Explains the educating thing she was banging on about.]
I’m from Tasmania too and she’s driving me fucking nuts. 🙁
“Is it all the people energised by the last few days to vote Labor or is it a sign of people getting their baseball bats out of the cupboard early in the morning?”
What an asinine comment. It’s just ~15 million people voting.
Exit polling is likely to be more favourable to the ALP than the result – due to the large numbers of pre-polling (some of which was at 60:40) :O
Those gormless Greens are at it again. They’ve preferenced Kate Ellis in No 2 spot on their Adelaide HTV. But in Sturt, for the second successive election, they do not allot preferences after the 1 for their candidate.
Instead they have a confusing HTV which runs
? Pyne Lib
? Barnes Family First
? Sarre ALP
? Scali PUP
1 Walker Greens
Wonder how many informal votes will follow from that?
And what is Pyne’s great attraction that prevents the Greens from preferencing against him?
You can’t say Latham didn’t warn you lot can you!
As always the wisest words from the most intelligent PB poster (ok second to me if you insist guys/gals), Psephos:
[ … a great democratic event nevertheless.]
[Did you have a last-minute change of heart and vote for your Liberal candidate?]
No.
If the final 2pp is 51-49 I will assume newspoll took one for the team.
[vexnews @vexnews 28 Jun
Reachtel poll: Coalition 52 ALP 48, Labor primary up 9 to 38% Rudd better PM 52-48 (52-48 with women) #auspol http://bit.ly/18jbULm
Adam Carr @AdamCarr2013 28 Jun
@vexnews So that is Peak Rudd. It’ll all be downhill from there.]
Note the dates on these tweets. This Adam Carr guy got it exactly right.
@guytaur/552
What can we make of that with 2PP with preferences?
wal kolla
Yes I remember Psephos warning us about exit polls skewing Labor way.
However it is not skewed to the point of hiding a landslide.
This morning’s polls:
Morgan 45.5 to 54.5 in the Coalition’s favour
Newspoll 46 to 54 in the Coalition’s favour
Nielsen 46 to 54 in the Coalition’s favour
The good news is that one of the skidmarks on the sheet of Australia’s political landscape will be cleaned.
The other one next time.
guytaur
[Its not landslide territory.]
Get that post framed!
This conclusion came from a tweet compared with months of polling and betting markets.
It will be worse for Labor than 1996 however 1975 may be out of reach. One more week and Rudd would have got there.
zoid
somewhre around 52 48
mick
I was talking about an exit poll only.
Yes Psephos – Adam Carr is a great guy.
I’ve heard he also talking about himself in 3rd person 😛
Well done 🙂
@guytaur/570
Thanks 🙂
I also think what I wrote makes no sense at all..
guytaur
Sorry, the one exit poll indicated:
[Its not landslide territory.]
but it’ll be a landslide outcome correct?
Just voted in Higgins – long lines, and O’Dwyer boosters and propaganda everywhere.
My girlfriend and another Greens supporter handing out HTVs. Even they were getting a better response than the lone ALP veteran. Even though I voted 1 GRN, I took at HTV and shook his hand just to cheer him up.
From the 80-odd others I saw at the polling place, I’d say at least 60 had only Lib HTV material. Maybe 5 or 6 with Greens HTV only.
Lots of people talking loudly about voting Lib too – ‘So I just put 1 in the box next to Kelly O’Dwyer’ etc.
WTF… Murdoch is already counting the results….
http://www.news.com.au
Well, the turnout for booth workers in my electorate has been pretty good for the ALP. I was supposed to do 2 booths today, but the first has an over abundance and so when i went to the second early the girl running it rang around to wee if they were short anywhere. Nope. So, home for cup of tea, Pollbludger and maybe try out the latest version of CM on my brand new phone till i’m scheduled on.
Mood was subdued, but no-one giving up.
Can anyone lend me $10million dollars? You’ll get it back later this week with 0.5% interest of $50,000 ‘cos I’ll split the 1% gain from sportsbet with you (Libs still $1.01, Labs $17.00).
Psephos – yes on days like today I do reflect on people in so many places in the world who do not get this chance.
By the way, do you have any idea if these Morgan exit-poll results are weighted in any way?
http://roymorgan.com.au/findings/5170-morgan-federal-election-exit-polls-201309070155
re Middle eastern religions
Swamprat 515
_________
Your post raises the point thast all the various major religions derived from the ancient semitic sky gods of Babylon and alsewhere have in the main been a curse on humanity…and like all religions a cause of ignorance and suffering
Israel is of course a kind of colonialist religious-racist state based too on a kind of apartheid
and one wonders how long it may survive
there’s a lot of history still to come in the Middle East
…in the US I reecenly saw an article which wondered about a post-zionist Palestine …Is that possible ?
From the looks of their website it seems Morgan will be doing rolling exit polls throughout the day.
I get an ALP 2PP of 48.3 on those primary figures, so given previous exit polls’ bias and more pre-poll votes this time 54-46 looks about right.
[By the way, do you have any idea if these Morgan exit-poll results are weighted in any way?]
A third of the electorate has voted pro-poll or postal. Historically the pre-poll and postal vote is skewed to the Libs. It would follow that the bulk of Labor voters are voting today, so we should expect a Labor skew in exit polls.
Have not yet voted but went up to the booth where Mrs Pseph was sausage sizzling to see if they needed help. Huge queue, Mike Symon MP out there glad handing. Surprising things were:
– remarkably few Libs doing HTV
– surpringly large ALP HTV turnout considering they have put little to no effort into campaign.
– high number of ‘interest groups’ – GetUp, Youth Climate change, some sort of teachers union thing.
Will wait until mid-afternoon when the queues have dissipated.
Voted an hour or so ago in Potts Point (Wentworth) – 15 minute queue in the astonishingly intense sunshine – atmosphere calm, no aggro/frustration/despair apparent in voters or HTVers.
Significant Turnbull presence of course, but there were ALP signs up. More Greens presence than ALP, but it is Potts Point. The Greens candidate was there chatting to people in line. I wished him good luck.
The Senate paper was a true chore to fill out below the line. I’ve always prided myself on taking care when voting, but getting from about preference 40 (which was about the last preference I felt even vaguely positive about) to 110 was … a donkey voting chore which I paid almost no attention to at all. That system has to be changed.
People in neighbouring booths muttered about the absurdity of the Senate paper.
Happy election day!
“@SamCD01: Lady screaming at Tony Abbott at the seat of Barton: “Refugees are welcome!” #ausvotes”
[It would follow that the bulk of Labor voters are voting today, so we should expect a Labor skew in exit polls.]
Do they take into account the voting last time of the booths where they exit poll? and adjust accordingly?
Sean Tisme Today is a referendum on nothing. It is a federal election, people will vote on many issues.
[WTF… Murdoch is already counting the results….]
Seems that Murdoch has put an awful lot of effort into trying to create the mood ON election day. Try to get the REAL undecideds to break for the Fiberals on the day so they can at least feel like they voted for the “winners” and get emotional satisfaction on that level.
Its a powerful tool that is in the hands of the media to do this. Regardless of the obvious bias over the last few years and the silly, over the top stuff of the last 5 weeks i think it has really had an effect. MSM cowardice, group thunk, and their fascination with theater over substance have made much of the mainstream reporting useless from an objective sense.
Sad. Journo’s of any substance pushed to the back of the pack and hacks doing the owners bidding writing bullsh$t get the front row.
Will be interesting to see if the Fiberal free ride in the MSM continues if they win. There will certainly be much material to feed the Theater aspect of reporting, but will the MSM focus on it?? Probably not. Fracking Cowards. 🙁
In 1966 Labor suffered a terible result but recovered in 1969 under Witlam to almost bring down Gorton
Their are many fickle and stupid voters and they can swing back in a short time
Fraser won well in 1975/77 but there were big swings in ’80 and he was sweptout in ’83…so let fools like Tisme and Mick 77 rememher that
As well a lot of lib men are still on golf course
I am sure Abbott will be loyal to Israel.
Apart from the US of A, the only country he will not “sell out”
Micky 77 will be happy.
Not much interest in GetUp! in my booth.
Lots of fun in Barton for Abbott got security team worried
BludgerTrack updated one last time with unpublished Nielsen state breakdowns. Hasn’t made any difference though.
BK if you are around
Having rushed back from Overseas to vote for my “beloved” Pruneface, I had a last minute change of heart, one my friends was handing out his cards ands of course gave it to me,I then purposely went over the ALP person(unusual here to see one) and said keep going he said thank you 😀
Good onya mari!
People said there was no return from 1996 (the ALP nearly got it back), no hope after 2007 (and it nearly swing back)… these political declarations of ‘there is no hope’ really are stupid.
@abcnews: Tony Abbott has been rushed away from a polling booth in Arncliffe. Follow our election blog http://t.co/oPabcniBAl #ausvotes #auspol