You’ll be able to hear my own dulcet tones this evening on ABC Radio’s live coverage, along with those of Fran Kelly, Mark Colvin, Sandy Aloisi and Senators John Faulkner and Michael Ronaldson, which is being carried on all ABC local, regional and national stations and of course online. Below you’ll find embedded Crikey’s contribution to this evening’s festival of democracy, which I might find time to contribute to in a quiet moment. For those of you who like it both ways, an old-fashioned comments thread is open below. Moderation will inevitably be light to non-existent, so play nice everybody.
We’ve got exit polls, from which the only clear message to emerge is that exit polling still has a way to go, in this country at least. Morgan has been publishing results of SMS polling throughout the day which has consistently had the Coalition ahead 52-48, with primary vote figures at 4pm of 33.5% for Labor, 42.5% for the Coalition, 11.5% for the Greens and 5% for the Palmer United Party (hourly updates here. But Newspoll has results suggesting Labor will be very lucky to get off that lightly, with Labor to lose 14 seats in New South Wales, seven in Queensland, three in Victoria (with Labor to gain Melbourne and Sophie Mirabella to retain Indi), but a status quo result in South Australia and Tasmania apparently not covered. So at the very least, we have a credibility race on between Newspoll and Morgan this evening. For what it’s worth, Morgan’s exit polling wasn’t far off last time. Many thanks to the PB comments community for doing my research for me here.
Sean
The Liberals are in government, now try and government for all Australians, not just those you agree with.
@ 1745
Line 3: competence = incompetence
[Mod Lib
Posted Sunday, September 8, 2013 at 12:09 am | PERMALINK
Right now it looks like it will end up like this to me:
LNP 94
ALP 53
Wilkie
Bandt
Katter
ALP about 6 seats better than I thought it would be….]
Also, Bendigo was allocated to the ALP too early, its probably ALP, but still in the mix @ 51.2% TPP given the LNP had twice the postals of ALP
[Is Sean the Hack really trying to score political points over Palmer? Yeah, it was your lot who took money from him for years and cuddled up to him.]
Unlike your Eddie Obeid… when Clive came knocking on the door for a seat in the Queensland State Parliament… the LNP told him to F Off.
I know this hurts your little brain but try to comprehend. Labor is the party that rewards mates doing dodgy deals
@Sean/1752
So you saying that some how Clive is dodgy, because he wasn’t allowed in QLD LNP liberal elite? while QLD LNP ripping QLD voters off?
Right.
Tisme, Clive is not a criminal.
My drunken 2013 wrap up!
What a night!
Let me first declare the biggest loser: THE MEDIA. Aside from the overall result (obvious to a demented blind bat with bird flu) was there any aspect of this election they actually got right?
The ‘killings grounds’ of Western Sydney and QLD. Oh please! They turned out the be the sites of greatest ALP resistance to the tide. Well done K Rudd & G Wright (they dont call the latter the marginals expert for nothing). I say that with full acknowledgement that QLD wasnt quite as ace as Kev made out – but still: it was pretty bloody good up there compared to the forecasts.
Did anyone see Perrett holding Moreton? No. Then we have Lilley. Rankin. Two of these had + ALP swings. HAHAH!
Western Sydney: not even close to the predictions. Piss off media youre useless also-rans! Bowen cruised in. Greenway (my tip) held easily.
Ruddster: totally misjudged by certain irate denizens of PB. A pyschopath? Here’s a better theory: youre a whinging loser who isnt worthy to shine his boots. What we just saw was the Dunkirk evacuation.He’s a hero. Colonel Ruddster lands 55 odd divisions alive on Blighty. Youll thank him later. Combet and Smith (no friends of Krudd) already have.
The he resigned as leader. Making irrelevant and wRONg 84.5% of all the BRAINDEAD RUBBISH Ive heard here over 6 months. He had a human desire to redeem his displacemnet in 2010 (you think it was easy to beat Howard?) – and redeemed, he left. And he is redeemed. Whinge all you want – this was a rescue job for the history books. Again, Smith and Combet agree. All over the country. Bring on D-day 2016. He resigned, so you can stop this BS.
Senate: well its a full block to next July. Beyond that, the KPI was a ‘difficult senate for Abbbot’. Id have preferred an ALP/GRN win, sure, but I think its fair to say with Abbott needing 6 out of 7 RANDOMLY GENERATED NUTJOBS, this has been achieved. I mean seriously: what a nightmare for Abbott. REFORM NOW. Surely even the LNP gets this message today. Our uper house registered tickes system is a JOKE.
Overrated: The LNP perforamnce. Oh Im sorry, did mr ‘the circus is over says arsemaster Rupert’ get UNDER 2% swing? Oh im so *chastened* in my progressive views since you covnerted 1 in 50 australian to your reatarded 3-word pedestrian bullshit. Not! F*CK YOU! You definitely rule us Tony – what with your great ‘mandate’ not being in any way TOTALLY UNDERWHELMING.
Underrated: Clive. Say no more. The curse of QLD strikes the LNP again. Pollsters WRONG about 2PPs. Boring,I told ya so, etc.
My bets: Mick, no need for us to piss around waiting: You win,I am not worthy etc. It (probably ) wont be under 52.7%,and (defiinitely) wont be 61+ seats. But mate – Im happier than i ever imagined I would be. This ‘landslide’ was a complete flop.
The ALP are in the game for 2016 – as Smith noted at length.
To Bandt: nailed it, muchacho.
To the Ruddster: my salute to you, sir. You didnt run a perfect campaign, but you saved the bacon comrade. You’re a Labor hero. Another salute to you for moving on. The right thing to do.
To Abbott: Congrats,and to your side too. May you govern us well. However, that was THE MOST SHIT SPEECH ive ever seen a new new PM give in 30 years. You are rubbish at this, and you know it. Since when doesnt a new PM promise to serve all Australians? Yure the first. when do they (irrelevantly ,given Clive dacked you as well) bother to point out their oppenents PV?
You have shown us *exactly* what I knew you would: your fundamental limitations as a PM. You are a partisan warrior, congenitally unable to grow into the role of PM. You just alienated those who gave you the benefit of the doubt, on your first speech as pm. Its too late now: Youve already lost next time.
I give you 18 months. And you and I both knows thats generous.
Goodnight punters.
Sean
Both parties look after their supporters.
Both parties always have and always will.
Palmer fell out with the LNP because he didn’t agree with the Campbell Newman approach to Government.
Why are you going so hard against someone that should be a political allies
mb
That’s not all that uncommon :D.
Not much talk of Pete beatie now.
[Sean Tisme
Posted Sunday, September 8, 2013 at 12:34 am | Permalink
I know this hurts your little brain but try to comprehend. Labor is the party that rewards mates doing dodgy deals ]
Comedy Gold – look at the people Newman has had to flick for having sticky fingers or otherwise fucking up, and jobs for mates – and its still a relatively new government as well.
What a night!
Let me first declare the biggest loser: THE MEDIA. Aside from the overall result (obvious to a demented blind bat with bird flu) was there any aspect of this election they actually got right?
The ‘killings grounds’ of Western Sydney and QLD. Oh please! They turned out the be the sites of greatest ALP resistance to the tide. Well done K Rudd & G Wright (they dont call the latter the marginals expert for nothing). I say that with full acknowledgement that QLD wasnt quite as ace as Kev made out – but still: it was pretty bloody good up there compared to the forecasts.
Did anyone see Perrett holding Moreton? No. Then we have Lilley. Rankin. Two of these had + ALP swings. HAHAH!
Western Sydney: not even close to the predictions. Piss off media youre useless also-rans! Bowen cruised in. Greenway (my tip) held easily.
Ruddster: totally misjudged by certain irate denizens of PB. A pyschopath? Here’s a better theory: youre a whinging loser who isnt worthy to shine his boots. What we just saw was the Dunkirk evacuation.He’s a hero. Colonel Ruddster lands 55 odd divisions alive on Blighty. Youll thank him later. Combet and Smith (no friends of Krudd) already have.
The he resigned as leader. Making irrelevant and wRONg 84.5% of all the BRAINDEAD RUBBISH Ive heard here over 6 months. He had a human desire to redeem his displacemnet in 2010 (you think it was easy to beat Howard?) – and redeemed, he left. And he is redeemed. Whinge all you want – this was a rescue job for the history books. Again, Smith and Combet agree. All over the country. Bring on D-day 2016. He resigned, so you can stop this BS.
Senate: well its a full block to next July. Beyond that, the KPI was a ‘difficult senate for Abbbot’. Id have preferred an ALP/GRN win, sure, but I think its fair to say with Abbott needing 6 out of 7 RANDOMLY GENERATED NUTJOBS, this has been achieved. I mean seriously: what a nightmare for Abbott. REFORM NOW. Surely even the LNP gets this message today. Our uper house registered tickes system is a JOKE.
Overrated: The LNP perforamnce. Oh Im sorry, did mr ‘the circus is over says arsemaster Rupert’ get UNDER 2% swing? Oh im so *chastened* in my progressive views since you converted 1 in 50 australian to your reatarded 3-word pedestrian bullshit. Not! PH*CK YOU! You definitely rule us Tony – what with your great ‘mandate’ not being in any way TOTALLY UNDERWHELMING.
Underrated: Clive. Say no more. The curse of QLD strikes the LNP again. Pollsters WRONG about 2PPs. Boring,I told ya so, etc.
My bets: Mick, no need for us to piss around waiting: You win,I am not worthy etc. It (probably ) wont be under 52.7%,and (defiinitely) wont be 61+ seats. But mate – Im happier than i ever imagined I would be. This ‘landslide’ was a complete flop.
The ALP are in the game for 2016 – as Smith noted at length.
To Bandt: nailed it, muchacho.
To the Ruddster: my salute to you, sir. You didnt run a perfect campaign, but you saved the bacon comrade. You’re a Labor hero. Another salute to you for moving on. The right thing to do.
To Abbott: Congrats,and to your side too. May you govern us well. However, that was THE MOST SH*T SPEECH ive ever seen a new new PM give in 30 years. You are rubbish at this, and you know it. Since when doesnt a new PM promise to serve all Australians? Youre the first. when do they (irrelevantly ,given Clive dacked you as well) bother to point out their oppenents PV?
You have shown us *exactly* what I knew you would: your fundamental limitations as a PM. You are a partisan warrior, congenitally unable to grow into the role of PM. You just alienated those who gave you the benefit of the doubt, on your first speech as pm. Its too late now: Youve already lost next time.
I give you 18 months. And you and I both knows thats generous.
Goodnight punters.
silmaj@1757
He is off the hook.
Probably relieved.
[So you saying that some how Clive is dodgy, because he wasn’t allowed in QLD LNP liberal elite? ]
Clive is a major mining and land developer in Queensland.
Letting him into Parliament like Labors mate Eddie Obeid is what is dodgy.
I am praying that Palmer wins Fairfax.
Big Clive in parliament would be very entertaining. 🙂
Sean
Mate are you now saying that we shouldn’t be taking to Mining executives and Land Developers
Yet it is okay for Joyce and Tone being mates with
Gina and Twiggy (Lets waste shareholder’s funds on unnecessary court case)
[Letting him into Parliament like Labors mate Eddie Obeid is what is dodgy]
So whats the story ST? You shall decide who enters parliament and the manner in which they enter it? twat.
Just like the ALP did, right Mexican.
@Sean/1761
The difference is that Eddie was part of Labor, Clive isn’t.
[Mate are you now saying that we shouldn’t be taking to Mining executives and Land Developers]
No I’m saying they shouldn’t be in parliament.
The Extreme Greens and Labor got Clive Palmer elected… I hope Abbott reminds them of this every day
Biggest swing to Labor: 9% in the seat of Fowler.
Michelle Rowland in Greenway: remarkable result for her too, helped no doubt by being up against a truly woeful Liberal opponent.
Graham Perrett and Shayne Neumann got 1% swings to them in Moreton and Blair respectively.
As for the much hyped robopolls of individual seats during the campaign – absolute crap, as was some of the dodgy polling News Ltd relied upon.
Sean Tisme: Clive Palmer is no more dodgy than your mate Abbott.
andrew36
Feel free to reveal what is wrong with Palmer being in the Parliament, he is a natural Liberal that has never been convicted of a crime that we are aware of.
Well Australia, get ready for 3 years of going back into the 1950s.
Tony Abbott is John Howard on steroids – be afraid, be very afraid.
lefty e – 1759
Couldn’t agree more. 🙂
Sean Tisme
Yeah there are several MP’s who owe their existence from preferences but is that really an issue.
[As for the much hyped robopolls of individual seats during the campaign – absolute crap, as was some of the dodgy polling News Ltd relied upon.]
Amen. Pollsters: take your bitter medicine.
If the Liberals and Greens had done a deal the Greens could have won Melbourne and Liberals could have won Melbourne Ports- Stephen Mayne
My conclusion on the polls: well,its exactly waht I said before this result.
– gime national polls over seat polls
– gimme seat polls over “combo-magnal WTF polls’
– gimme tea leaves over robopolls.
QED tonight. Shape up or ship out.
I will start again
If the Liberals and Greens had done a deal the Greens could have won Batman and the Liberals could have won Melbourne Ports- Stephen Mayne
[ Sean Tisme
Posted Sunday, September 8, 2013 at 12:45 am | Permalink
No I’m saying they shouldn’t be in parliament.
The Extreme Greens and Labor got Clive Palmer elected]
Murdoch got abbott and the tories elected.
Murdoch doesn’t need to be in the Parliament to get the outcome he wants.
My conclusion on the polls: well,its exactly what I said before this result.
– gime national polls over seat polls
– gimme seat polls over “combo-marginal WTF polls’
– gimme tea leaves over robopolls.
QED tonight. Shape up or ship out.
Cheers Dominick.
Kevin Rudd Concession speech:
“A short time ago I phoned Tony Abbott to concede defeat at these national elections. AS PRIME MINISTER OF AUSTRALIA, I WISH HIM WELL NOW IN THE HIGH OFFICE OF PRIME MINISTER OF THIS COUNTRY”
Wait, what?!?! Is Rudd still living the fantasy he is PM?
Anyway, I doubt even Palmer will be enough to liven up politics over the next 3 years :P.
Sean
drinking buys you an excuse, he is referring to Abbott as PM
Also where is Gary and GP, surely they would have dropped in for a hello
Rudd Concession Speech: “It would be un-Prime Ministerially of me to say to say Bill Glasson eat your heart out so I won’t”
This guy is completely unhinged!!!
@Sean/1784
He still is until GG next week.
Everyone predicting Abbott is going to be ultra conservative in government is going to be very sadly wrong.
He is going to sit back and take it easy for the next couple of years.
He has a decent majority. All he has to do is ride his bike one week for the year, visit a few outback communities and talk to Karl in the morning on TV and smile and he has 6 years as PM in the bag. If he is lucky he might get 9.
Why risk that by actually doing something?
Does not make sense.
Get used to not seeing anywhere near as much of Tone as we have seen in the last four years.
Tony will be under lock and key and loving it. Thanks Rudd.
mexican beemer… and when he said what I just posted?
The guy still reckons he’s PM!
Lefty, what a load of F*&^%$# bullshit, the polls were prietty much spot on, everyone with half a brain knows that you cant take a swing as been equal over every seat. But you have to use some sort of guide to try and work out a seat count, everyone predicted around 90 – 100 seats, most around 95 and they weren’t far off. Abbott did say he would govern for every person, you didn’t even watch properly did you. WTF about Rudds speech, it was a 20 minute f&*^%$$ victory speech, it was all about himself and he even had a dig at his local opponent, all F%^$#@ class that guy. As for Abbott alienating everyone, yeah right, just like he alienated everyone with his gay marriage stance, with his sex appeal comment and his daughters right. You and people like you are exactly why the ALP is f^&%$##, your so F&^%$#@ out of touch you don’t have a clue.
Kevin Rudd remains Prime Minister at the moment.
Well Sean he is until the new one is sworn
@andrew36/1791
How can he govern for every person if he is taking money off people before giving people stable long term jobs?
*waters Tisme*
Talking about “i’m PM!!!” when you just got kicked out is uncouth.
Technically he may still be PM… but he’s just been tossed out, what a dickhead
[ Is Rudd still living the fantasy he is PM? ]
He is. He is PM in caretaker mode.
Not for long, but what he said is accurate until abbott is sworn in.
The polls will be declared in due time. Abbott will then be the PM elect, then he will be sworn in.
Any major decisions required in the meantime would be agreed.
Tisme, you’ll have to find someone else to water you over the next 3 years, sorry :P.
The media over-egged the ONCE IN A GENERATION BLOODBATH OF A BASEBALL BAT LANDSLIDE OF LANDSLIDES thing it obviously freaked more than a few voters out and robbed the LNP of seats I thought for sure were going down.
I mean, Wayne Swan returned! Bowen! Holy shit!
Undoubtedly had an impact in the Senate too. If it weren’t for the media’s landslide hysteria a lot of those wacky groupuscule preferences would never have eventuated.
Thanks, media.
Signed,
Non-suicidal ALP Supporter.
lefty e
Ha ha ha.
What a rewrite of history. And so quickly.
To compare Rudd’s defeat to the Dunkirk evacuation, a humiliating retreat by the Allies, amid thousands of innocents who lost their lives, through the maladministration of the command – is correct on the one hand, and trivialising on the other.
You made Rudd against the wishes of thousands of supporters. Rudd lost. Accept your stupidity, and the loss of thousands of Labor voters, under your command. There was no victory. There was no honour in defeat.
There was only vengeance in your hearts.
That you’d rather lose the respect of a nation than accept you were supporting a man who had proved unfit to be a leader by his own party, a party who had tried to preserve some sort of vestige of honour for him.
That you considered yourself his invincible guards, and as such urged him on, shows your lack of insight and integrity.
That you led the rest of us, despite protestations, on your unprincipled ride, and your subsequent inability to acknowledge it, shows an enormous hubristic lack of judgement.
So, don’t count me in in your pathetic candle-lit memorial for Rudd. You should have been brave enough to tell Rudd to keep his powder dry. Instead, you chose to ignite it.
And by so doing, destroyed Labor’s government, and the rest of us.
Thanks for nothing.