Election night live

And they’re off …

You’ll be able to hear my own dulcet tones this evening on ABC Radio’s live coverage, along with those of Fran Kelly, Mark Colvin, Sandy Aloisi and Senators John Faulkner and Michael Ronaldson, which is being carried on all ABC local, regional and national stations and of course online. Below you’ll find embedded Crikey’s contribution to this evening’s festival of democracy, which I might find time to contribute to in a quiet moment. For those of you who like it both ways, an old-fashioned comments thread is open below. Moderation will inevitably be light to non-existent, so play nice everybody.

We’ve got exit polls, from which the only clear message to emerge is that exit polling still has a way to go, in this country at least. Morgan has been publishing results of SMS polling throughout the day which has consistently had the Coalition ahead 52-48, with primary vote figures at 4pm of 33.5% for Labor, 42.5% for the Coalition, 11.5% for the Greens and 5% for the Palmer United Party (hourly updates here. But Newspoll has results suggesting Labor will be very lucky to get off that lightly, with Labor to lose 14 seats in New South Wales, seven in Queensland, three in Victoria (with Labor to gain Melbourne and Sophie Mirabella to retain Indi), but a status quo result in South Australia and Tasmania apparently not covered. So at the very least, we have a credibility race on between Newspoll and Morgan this evening. For what it’s worth, Morgan’s exit polling wasn’t far off last time. Many thanks to the PB comments community for doing my research for me here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,842 comments on “Election night live”

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  1. Can someone out there in Bludgerland provide me with a quick run down of what exit polls have been saying? I’ve only seen this Newspoll thing and the 2pm Morgan result. Is that everything?

  2. @William:

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2h

    #Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (3PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 L/NP 52 #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2h

    #Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (3PM update) Primary Votes: ALP 33.5 L/NP 42.5 GRN 11 PUP 5 #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 30m

    #Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (4PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 L/NP 52 #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 30m

    #Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (4PM update) Primary Votes: ALP 33.5 L/NP 42.5 GRN 11.5 PUP 5 #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 6m

    #Newspoll Exit Poll Seat Estimate: ALP 51 L/NP 97 GRN 0 IND 2 #ausvotes

  3. @Mod Lib,

    I think Newspoll is dodgy.

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 30s

    #Newspoll Exit Poll Predicted ALP losses by state: NSW 14 VIC 3 (and 1 gain) QLD 7 WA 1 SA 0 Tasmania not included #ausvotes

  4. Newspoll forecast Liberals to gain

    14 NSW
    7 Queensland
    3 Victoria ALP to gain Melbourne & Sophie to hold Indi
    0 in Tassie and SA
    WA 1 (O Çonnor)

  5. Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 4:30 pm | PERMALINK
    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m
    #Newspoll Exit Poll Predicted ALP losses by state: NSW 14 VIC 3 (and 1 gain) QLD 7 WA 1 SA 0 Tasmania not included #ausvotes

    7 losses in Qld? Is that all but Kev?

  6. From an earlier link they are talking about Abbott but by golly does it sound like Menzies House mice.

    [The carbon tax is toxic. Australia has too much debt. The cost of living is rising. It doesn’t matter how empirically this shit is disproved; somehow, like a fucking average horror movie, the same tiresome desiccated monster pops its reanimated head up and starts roaring once more]

  7. Womble

    I’m not sure Nswapoll is right this time, maybe for NSW they are but Queensland will be confusing until we see the pup and katter preference flows.

    It may turn into a flood but then for a landslide i would be expecting a bigger primary vote swing to the Libs and i am not really seeing a big swing.

  8. How do MPs’ offices know when your birthday is?

    Because all MPs’ offices have access to an electronic version of the electoral roll, which includes your name, address and date of birth.

  9. HTV moment of the day – voter turns up and asks where is the Australian Democrats HTV.

    On being told there wasn’t one he walks off in a huff refusing to vote.

  10. TEN News ‏@channeltennews 9m

    BREAKING: We’ve just received the latest @roymorganonline exit poll & results are fascinating. Details live #TenNews ALL STATES in 20 mins

  11. Good result in the footy. I don’t support either team. I just dislike Geelong. Justice done after the gift of a home-ground final from the AFL.

  12. Paul Keating Ex-PM ‏@PmPaulKeating 2m

    Sometimes you have to lie down and take your medicine when you have an infection. A 3 year lie down. #ausvotes #auspol

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