You’ll be able to hear my own dulcet tones this evening on ABC Radio’s live coverage, along with those of Fran Kelly, Mark Colvin, Sandy Aloisi and Senators John Faulkner and Michael Ronaldson, which is being carried on all ABC local, regional and national stations and of course online. Below you’ll find embedded Crikey’s contribution to this evening’s festival of democracy, which I might find time to contribute to in a quiet moment. For those of you who like it both ways, an old-fashioned comments thread is open below. Moderation will inevitably be light to non-existent, so play nice everybody.
We’ve got exit polls, from which the only clear message to emerge is that exit polling still has a way to go, in this country at least. Morgan has been publishing results of SMS polling throughout the day which has consistently had the Coalition ahead 52-48, with primary vote figures at 4pm of 33.5% for Labor, 42.5% for the Coalition, 11.5% for the Greens and 5% for the Palmer United Party (hourly updates here. But Newspoll has results suggesting Labor will be very lucky to get off that lightly, with Labor to lose 14 seats in New South Wales, seven in Queensland, three in Victoria (with Labor to gain Melbourne and Sophie Mirabella to retain Indi), but a status quo result in South Australia and Tasmania apparently not covered. So at the very least, we have a credibility race on between Newspoll and Morgan this evening. For what it’s worth, Morgan’s exit polling wasn’t far off last time. Many thanks to the PB comments community for doing my research for me here.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Newspoll Exit Poll Seat Estimate: ALP 51 L/NP 97 GRN 0 IND 2
…not far off my prediction!!!!!
Can someone out there in Bludgerland provide me with a quick run down of what exit polls have been saying? I’ve only seen this Newspoll thing and the 2pm Morgan result. Is that everything?
William
Those the only two I have seen the Morgan has been updating hourly.
@William:
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2h
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (3PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 L/NP 52 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2h
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (3PM update) Primary Votes: ALP 33.5 L/NP 42.5 GRN 11 PUP 5 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 30m
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (4PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 L/NP 52 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 30m
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (4PM update) Primary Votes: ALP 33.5 L/NP 42.5 GRN 11.5 PUP 5 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 6m
#Newspoll Exit Poll Seat Estimate: ALP 51 L/NP 97 GRN 0 IND 2 #ausvotes
That Newspoll exit poll says no seat change in Tassie…
@Mod Lib,
I think Newspoll is dodgy.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 30s
#Newspoll Exit Poll Predicted ALP losses by state: NSW 14 VIC 3 (and 1 gain) QLD 7 WA 1 SA 0 Tasmania not included #ausvotes
We’ll all see soon. Either Morgan is way off or Newspoll is.
Newspoll forecast Liberals to gain
14 NSW
7 Queensland
3 Victoria ALP to gain Melbourne & Sophie to hold Indi
0 in Tassie and SA
WA 1 (O Çonnor)
Mod Lib
Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 4:30 pm | PERMALINK
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Newspoll Exit Poll Predicted ALP losses by state: NSW 14 VIC 3 (and 1 gain) QLD 7 WA 1 SA 0 Tasmania not included #ausvotes
7 losses in Qld? Is that all but Kev?
Newspoll didn’t poll in Tassie,
In the marginals in NSW and QLD 6.3 swing to Libs
Why doesnt newspoll give percentages?
Morgan may be more accurate for including pre polling
Mod Lib
Yes Griffth is considered 50/50
Newspoll and Morgan with very different exit poll results.
Overall, I know who I’d be backing.
36% ALP primary in Newspoll. They have a maths issue.
@Mod Lib/10
Bludger showing -1 currently, with -7 for NSW.
It’s a prediction from Newspoll.
here is a link to Morgan’s figures, they are being updated hourly
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5170-morgan-federal-election-exit-polls-201309070155
Greens back to 11.5% 🙂
[7 losses in Qld? Is that all but Kev?]
Labor currently has 8 in Queensland.
How the hell does a 36% primary make it to a bijillion seats lost?
From an earlier link they are talking about Abbott but by golly does it sound like Menzies House mice.
[The carbon tax is toxic. Australia has too much debt. The cost of living is rising. It doesn’t matter how empirically this shit is disproved; somehow, like a fucking average horror movie, the same tiresome desiccated monster pops its reanimated head up and starts roaring once more]
Rua
I think the 36% was for the marginals
“@mattRan: #1950herewecome is a great twitter hashtag to describe what is happening to Australia today. #auspol #ausvotes”
[36% ALP primary in Newspoll. They have a maths issue.]
In which case its seat loss numbers are way off.
Or the PV is.
Labor had from Newspoll 36.2% in 2010 election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2010
-7 in Queensland is crazy talk from Newspoll, that’s a total wipeout isn’t it??? – I think it will be plus something instead
Wait… Did Newspoll only poll QLD and NSW marginals, and extrapolate national projections?
Womble
I’m not sure Nswapoll is right this time, maybe for NSW they are but Queensland will be confusing until we see the pup and katter preference flows.
It may turn into a flood but then for a landslide i would be expecting a bigger primary vote swing to the Libs and i am not really seeing a big swing.
The polls this morning had qld on wipeout alert
They said they did that Glory plus combine with some existing polling – I think they are guessing
Glory
Appears to be the case
How do MPs’ offices know when your birthday is?
Because all MPs’ offices have access to an electronic version of the electoral roll, which includes your name, address and date of birth.
[Wait… Did Newspoll only poll QLD and NSW marginals, and extrapolate national projections?]
Yep all 800 people. It seems so far.
The fact they gave Greens zero is also dodgy.
Where does the 36% figure come from?
Geelong is going to lose its home final. This really is an augury. It will start raining frogs in a minute.
@NATSILS_: Concern still high as Coalition response to Aboriginal Legal Aid cuts provides little clarity #auslaw #closingthegap http://t.co/2lQatngbFG
Psephos
Thanks muchly.
I didn’t realise electoral roll included dob, only address.
HTV moment of the day – voter turns up and asks where is the Australian Democrats HTV.
On being told there wasn’t one he walks off in a huff refusing to vote.
Could it be that the 36.2% is just for the seats polled, and thus can’t be read as a national total? Where does this figure come from anyway?
TEN News @channeltennews 9m
BREAKING: We’ve just received the latest @roymorganonline exit poll & results are fascinating. Details live #TenNews ALL STATES in 20 mins
It appears the Qld Newspoll exit figure is extrapolated from Griffith. A hard seat to poll.
William it’s my understanding the 36% is polled marginals only and it’s not meant to be a national poll.
Did anyone catch the Griffith exit poll primaries that Sky just announced?
bet you $100 nothing fascinating about the exit poll results
Good result in the footy. I don’t support either team. I just dislike Geelong. Justice done after the gift of a home-ground final from the AFL.
Paul Keating Ex-PM @PmPaulKeating 2m
Sometimes you have to lie down and take your medicine when you have an infection. A 3 year lie down. #ausvotes #auspol
Newspoll exit poll is ~800 people in Qld and NSW ALP marginal.
I wouldnt put much stock in that Newspoll exit just yet.
More info pls.
800 people is large MOE too isn’t it?