You’ll be able to hear my own dulcet tones this evening on ABC Radio’s live coverage, along with those of Fran Kelly, Mark Colvin, Sandy Aloisi and Senators John Faulkner and Michael Ronaldson, which is being carried on all ABC local, regional and national stations and of course online. Below you’ll find embedded Crikey’s contribution to this evening’s festival of democracy, which I might find time to contribute to in a quiet moment. For those of you who like it both ways, an old-fashioned comments thread is open below. Moderation will inevitably be light to non-existent, so play nice everybody.
We’ve got exit polls, from which the only clear message to emerge is that exit polling still has a way to go, in this country at least. Morgan has been publishing results of SMS polling throughout the day which has consistently had the Coalition ahead 52-48, with primary vote figures at 4pm of 33.5% for Labor, 42.5% for the Coalition, 11.5% for the Greens and 5% for the Palmer United Party (hourly updates here. But Newspoll has results suggesting Labor will be very lucky to get off that lightly, with Labor to lose 14 seats in New South Wales, seven in Queensland, three in Victoria (with Labor to gain Melbourne and Sophie Mirabella to retain Indi), but a status quo result in South Australia and Tasmania apparently not covered. So at the very least, we have a credibility race on between Newspoll and Morgan this evening. For what it’s worth, Morgan’s exit polling wasn’t far off last time. Many thanks to the PB comments community for doing my research for me here.
A NEW THREAD. YIPPEE!!!!!
As we head into a terrible night, I wish I could be like my partner, and not care so much about politics!
thanks to all on PB for being my main source of political news all year, and will be my only source on election night
The rest of the Newspoll “exit” poll is from the poll published this AM.
If I heard correctly the Newspoll Exit Poll was in Labor marginals in NSW and Qld only. The 36% ALP number is 6.3% down on ALP results in those marginals in 2010.
101 Seat Coalition
47 Seats Labor
Katter and Wilkie win their seats
why call it an exit poll then, when it includes Tues-Thurs?
@Sean/54
They won’t get 100+
[lizzie
Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 4:24 pm | PERMALINK
Quick question.
Where do political parties get their details about residents from? OH was surprised to get a birthday card from Tony Smith last week which quoted his age.]
The Libs also seemed to know my son was overseas (he’d applied for a postal vote), and didn’t send any election material to him, though they did to me, at the same address. Weird.
(from previous thread): good to hear your mum sorted out her voting inclination. I did see many elderly people accompanied by younger (middle-aged) people who both resolutely refused HTV cards.
—
Re the reference to a voter gleefully thinking they’d reduced an HTVer to tears.
An elderly gent, who had been in the queue for some time, decided to humiliate me.
In a very loud voice, he told me I should be disgraced for not having clean shoes (after 6 hours of running to and fro in a dusty, windy environment).
To his dismay, others in the queue and other HTVers rounded on him.
Perhaps, they said, as they examined their own footwear (dirty runners, scuffed boots, dusty footwear) he should just pull his head in.
He pulled himself up to his 5’7″ height, and declared he was an army veteran (he had shiny boots) and as he’d served the country, he could tell me, and everyone else for that matter, what he thought.
His very act alienated a lot in the queue.
I grinned at him. And he blushed longest and loudest.
So, to the dipstick who thinks humiliating volunteers in a democratic election is something to swagger about, you need to grow up. Fast.
I look forward to the lib-bots around here telling us that debt and deficit arent that bad, that breaking promises isnt too bad, and that low interest rates are, alas, good after all. And that Australia’s economy is good.
Andrew
When the media want to make up a story, they don’t bother much with logic or truth.
Galaxy reporting 45.5/55.5
[@Sean/54
They won’t get 100+]
Wanna Bet?!?!
Lizzie, I should have known after the last six years, I know
Largest swing in vic 5.7%
@Sean/61
I don’t waste money on betting on fools.
Exit poll
People I’m talking to are saying the swing in VIC is not happening where it’s needed…
Ugh – these fucking exits are EVERYWHERE…
AEC @AusElectoralCom now
The virtual tally room is now available. No votes counted until after 6pm. http://vtr.aec.gov.au/ #auspol #ausvotes
zoidlord,
You are going to look an idiot tomorrow.
ST – better than seeming one all the time eh?
55.5 – 45.5 adds up to 101
whats the fascinating morgan exit then?
Andrew
With the added layer of merde being that they will claim credit for it all.
Are they waiting for the 5pm ten news?
@Seans/68
Perhaps, but perhaps not.
At least I don’t buy voters with Money and get help from Murdoch.
[Troy Bramston @TroyBramston 25m
Source: Liberal Party polling shows Sophie Mirabella will be defeated in Indi.]
Smiley Face.
I want to see if the AFL gives Collingwood get a home final at the MCG against Geelong next week.
I wouldn’t put it past them.
The exit polls seem to be all over the shop! We’ll have some idea in an hour or so’s time.
Throughout the whole campaign period in our area, the only corflutes have been for Lib rep, except in front of pre-polling office and of course today around the polling place.
Feel neglected !
75 – this would make my week… month…
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 10s
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (5PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 L/NP 52 #ausvotes
[@Seans/68
Perhaps, but perhaps not.]
So in 30 seconds you have changed from not going to happen… to maybe.
We are making progress.
AEC Virtual Tally Room – after 6 pm
http://mirror-vtr.aec.gov.au/
So it’s fascinating as it hasn’t moved?
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 10s
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (5PM update) Primary Votes: ALP 33.5 L/NP 43 GRN 11 PUP 5 #ausvotes
Did anyone catch the Griffith exit poll primary votes?
@Sean/81
No.
ru
[Troy Bramston @TroyBramston 25m
Source: Liberal Party polling shows Sophie Mirabella will be defeated in Indi.]
That and Freo getting up, along with this bottle of red wine, will make today bearable.
Kezza
Well done on handing HTV cards
I know i once said i was going to give the Greens a hard time but really there is no need for it.
Its better to be friendly afterall there are many parts of the world that would love to be able to turn up to a local school and hall an pass judgement on the government.
I don’t know why army people think that they are any more worthy than any other public servant and that is all they are.
Doing the job the government pays them to do.
@Dio/87
Yay!
So… Newspoll did essentially a marginal seats poll… in two states, then extrapolated that nation-wide? Is that right?
LNP up to 43 from 42.5 in that latest Morgan exit poll update.
Dear Mr Kroger
Cabbies don’t spend money, they earn crap wages.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (5PM update) Primary Votes: ALP 33.5 L/NP 43 GRN 11 PUP 5 #ausvotes
Those primary votes make 53% to the Coalition on TPP (or 52.7% to be precise)
….then you have to add the exit polls skew to the ALP
….then you have to add the skew to the Coalition as those on holidays and therefore not measured in exit polls skew Coalition.
So Morgan has Labor primary at 33.5% and 48 TPP, but Newspoll has Labor primary BETTER than that at 36% but losing 25 seats.
Seems legit.
Mod Lib:
ABC24 reporting Griffith won’t go to the LNP.
Mirabella losing will be a small jelly bean on top of a large plateful of shit.
OMG!! We’re being left alone with the keys to the car on election night!! 😀
[For those of you who like it both ways, an old-fashioned comments thread is open below. Moderation will inevitably be light to non-existent, so play nice everybody.
[quote]34.So it’s fascinating as it hasn’t moved?[/quote]
Must be.
Western sydney doesnt care about the nbn