BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Coalition

Poll aggregation suggests the momentum against Labor has slowed, but with the rocks now too near for the ship to be turned around. Their last hope: the polls are wrong.

Yesterday’s Essential Research release concludes what I’d normally regard in the off season as a weekly cycle of poll results, making this an appopriate moment for a situation report. News reports yesterday were full of talk of a shift back to Labor based on a three-point lift in their primary vote from Newspoll, which neatly encapsulates what’s wrong with mainstream journalism’s reportage of opinion polling. For all The Australian’s success in marketing it as the gold standard, Newspoll is not – and indeed, does not claim to be – any more immune to statistical noise than any other poll. This particular shift was undoubtedly more noise than signal, coming as it did off a below-par result in the previous week’s poll.

For a more meaningful read of the situation you should refer to a poll aggregate, of which the one most readily to hand is of course BludgerTrack. However, you can find much the same story being told by Julian King at Pottinger (who has the Coalition at 53.6%), Simon Jackman (53.5%), Mark the Ballot (52.7%), Kevin Bonham (52.3%) and the AFR’s Poll of Polls (51.8%) (with apologies to any I’ve missed, like Andrew Catsaras’s which only appears on Insiders). Much of the variation comes down to the weight given to Essential Research, which is excluded altogether by Mark the Ballot and downweighted by BludgerTrack for having gone off trend.

Mark the Ballot’s charts offer a better visual representation of what emerges from the numbers coming out of BludgerTrack, which is that the rate of Labor’s decline slowed this week. The current output of the BludgerTrack model has Labor down 0.4% since this time a week ago (note that this isn’t exactly the same thing as the “last week” comparison on the sidebar, which reflects the model’s result at that time rather than its current retrospective evaluation) compared with 0.7% in the week to August 17, 0.7% in the week to August 10 and 0.5% in the week to August 3. As Mark the Ballot and BludgerTrack concur, the rot set in around mid-July, perhaps a fortnight before the election was called.

Of course, it’s a little too late in the game for a mere slowing of the momentum against them to do Labor much good. It would take a black swan event to return Labor to parity in the 12 days still available to them, the potential nature of which is by definition impossible to foresee. Labor’s other hope of course is that the polls and the aggregates derived from them are fundamentally wrong. A favourite argument of those predisposed to this view is that the online polling of Essential Research is telling a different story from polls using other methods, having had Labor at a post-Gillard high of 50-50 for the past two weeks. Nate Silver, it is noted, gave online polling the highest collective score in his post-match report after the presidential election, finding an average error of 2.1% compared with 3.5% for live interview phone polls and 5.0% for “robopolls”.

However, I would observe that the pollsters at the top end of Silver’s list are a mix of live phone interview and internet polls, with the live phone interview average dragged down by a number of poor performers at the bottom end (the most spectacular example being Gallup). Given the strong performances of Newspoll and Galaxy at recent state elections, at least on two-party preferred, it would require a leap of faith to conclude that either belongs in the latter camp. If anything, the risk appears to be on the downside for Labor. Essential Research aside, the big anomaly of the polling picture is that national polls have been kinder to Labor than electorate-level ones, a phenomenon by no means unique to the robo-polls (and it should be noted that the disparity seems to be lower in the case of Galaxy’s automated polling, suggesting that “house” as much as “method” bias has been at work here).

Now to some observations on the state-level projections. Labor received a large bounce in New South Wales and Queensland after Kevin Rudd’s return, bringing them into parity with the 2010 election result in the former case and well in front of it in the latter. However, in Victoria the move to Labor was more subdued. Three weeks after the Rudd comeback, BludgerTrack had the Coalition’s national lead at 50.5-49.5 and pointed to swings in Labor’s favour of 0.6% in New South Wales and 2.4% in Queensland, while going 3.7% in the other direction in Victoria (remembering that the 2010 election gave Labor its best result in Victoria since the Second World War). So far as BludgerTrack is concerned, the decline in Labor’s fortunes since has been driven by New South Wales, where the swing has now caught up with Victoria’s. That being so, one could perhaps hypothesise that it’s the Daily Telegraph wot’s winning it.

As for Queensland, that 2.4% swing to Labor is still there as far as BludgerTrack is concerned, inconsistent as that may be with reports of internal polling, the weekend Newspoll showing Labor going heavily backwards across eight Liberal National Party marginals, and a series of grim results for Labor coming out of Griffith and Forde. I keep waiting for new data from Queensland to square the circle by showing the other recent results to have been anomalous, and it keeps not happening. Of the last nine data points available to me from Queensland, which go back as far as August 7, only one fails to show a swing to Labor. The one exception is the sturdiest result of the bunch – an 800-sample Galaxy poll conducted late in the first week of the campaign. The rest are sub-samples from national polls, some (but not all) with very small samples.

The samples are smaller still for Western Australia and South Australia, although there are enough of them that it would be hoped that aggregating them would get you fairly close to a real world figure. On this basis, Labor’s once promising position in Western Australia relative to the 2010 result seems to have deteriorated significantly. In South Australia, Labor is rating a little better than media chatter (not to mention the weekend’s Hindmarsh poll) suggests they should be, though not to the extent of indicating an improvement on the 2010 status quo in terms of seats.

One final thought. With Labor holding 72 seats out of 150, it seems very likely that they will need a swing in their favour if they are going to win the election. Out of 17 national and 39 electorate-level polls conducted during the campaign (not counting a small number of electorate polls involving Greens or independent sitting members), not a single one has shown such a thing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,322 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 27
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  1. CTar1:

    That explains why she never appears with her family on the campaign trail. It doesn’t explain why she is NEVER mentioned at all.

  2. See River is on duty this morning

    I spent yesterday in bed with a bug from Dubai? not very nice still in bed but a bit better today.

    So watch out any LNP troll on here today

  3. What John Kerry said last night that jolted the markets –

    [….. Last night, after speaking with foreign ministers from around the world about the gravity of this situation, I went back and I watched the videos, the videos that anybody can watch in the social media, and I watched them one more gut-wrenching time. It is really hard to express in words the human suffering that they lay out before us.

    As a father, I can’t get the image out of my head of a man who held up his dead child, wailing, while chaos swirled around him, the images of entire families dead in their beds without a drop of blood or even a visible wound, bodies contorting in spasms, human suffering that we can never ignore or forget.

    Anyone who could claim that an attack of this staggering scale could be contrived or fabricated needs to check their conscience and their own moral compass. What is before us today is real, and it is compelling. ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-26/clear-staggering-and-compelling-attack-full-kerry-transcript

    and

    [ All was well in the world early on. Dismal durable goods orders were terrible enough to provide the index-watching-muppets with the bad-news-that-is-good-news to pump stocks higher. ….

    Then Kerry spoke…

    – first WTI broke higher (catching up Brent),
    – then gold (and silver),
    – the USD sold off (as JPY strengthened as a million carry traders were suddenly silenced), and
    – US equity markets fell out of bed with a thump.
    – The dow lost 15,000;
    – S&P futures tested down to their 50DMA;
    – gold traded up to $1,403;
    – silver well over $24;
    – VIX snapped 1 vol higher to 15.0%; and
    – AAPL tumbled from early highs (holding above $500 though).

    An ugly close at the lows of the day for stocks… ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-26/market-update-war-rotation

  4. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 52m
    Plibersek v Dutts in press club today. As electric as Abbott v Roxon (2007)?]

    Another health debate where we get to see how little Dutton has done in his portfolio.

  5. ‘fess

    If I was and junior employee of DFAT and a politicians child I wouldn’t want to be mentioned either.

    I doubt BBish’s daughter who works for the Dept of Health would want to be mentioned either.

  7. Shambles Newman promised no public service cuts, then cut 14,000 jobs.

    Howard said he would cut 2500 public service jobs, then wiped out 30,000 of them

    Colon is getting rid of 1200 plus 500 in education

    Abbott started at 20,000 and because he failed to properly check then found out that around 8,000 were military or border security and revised the figure to 12,000.

  13. Abbott’s “missing” daughter is not news. Her existence is completely irrelevant to any issue in the campaign. The family members and relatives of all politicians are irrelevant unless the pollie or the family member/relative makes themselves an issue.

    Since 2 of Abbott’s daughters have been involved in the political campaign and have adopted for themselves the position of “referee for PM” they are legitimately open to scrutiny. Yucky questions about how they felt about their Dad’s embrace of his “missing” son, whether they have ever got drunk or smoked dope or their sexual orientation all become “relevant” to the public’s ability to gauge the value of their refereeing.

    IMO allowing one’s children to play such a prominent role in one’s campaign is therefore utterly disgraceful. Abbott is putting his public interest in becoming PM (no doubt on behalf of an ever so grateful voting public) ahead of the privacy to which his daughters ought reasonably be entitled. For so long as Abbott is a pollie, regretably, adverse events in these 2 daughters’ lives becomes a matter of legitimate public interest (since it goes to their qualification to be a referee).

  15. You’d have to think the ALP has something up it’s sleeve for Tasmania.
    As each day goes by I worry that time is running out.

    Bass Straight freight subsidy. Four words.
    Four seats.

    They’ve got nothing to lose.
    Four seats are gone otherwise, no risk.

  17. Windhover

    [IMO allowing one’s children to play such a prominent role in one’s campaign is therefore utterly disgraceful. ]

    10 – 4.

  19. Windhover:

    I for one am sick of the intrusion of unelected family members into public spruiking for their elected family member as if they are independent people with no vested interest in the overall outcome.

  21. Andrew

    Posted Tuesday, August 27, 2013 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    confessions, he held up his phone in parliament, he seemed pretty sure he had something. maybe he was bluffing
    ——————————————-

    Gamesmanship?

  23. Of course in Australia the pork is official, ‘Royalties for Regions’ being a classic official pork.

    Democracy Thieves R Us.

  26. Wow If I was unemployed and under 30 I’d do my best to stay that way for at least 12 months now, so I can get a bonus from Tony.

    Easy to do if you’re young. Stay with mum and dad, play stupid in interviews, and wait till bonus time.

    I thought he was going to stop the dole for under 30s?

  27. dave

    That was quite a finance industry smash up. Those value investors!

    I don’t think anyone is saying that chemical weapons were not used and that they were not awful. The question remains: who used them and why?

    I note that at least one lot, and maybe several lots, are sniping the UN chemical weapons inspectors.

  30. Where is Diaz?? Where has he hidden after his TV interview?

    wixxyleaks.com/2013/08/27/invisible-the-great-disappearing-act-of-liberal-candidate-jaymes-diaz/ …

  32. Boerwar@126


    dave

    I don’t think anyone is saying that chemical weapons were not used and that they were not awful. The question remains: who used them and why?

    Indeed.

    The following is is in the category of ‘believe it is you want to’. The claims are detailed however?

    But who knows who is up who and who is paying the rent ?

    [ Israel Claims To Have Intercepted “Syrian Regime Chatter” Confirming Assad Behind Attack

    An Israeli TV report on Saturday claimed that the missiles were fired by the 155th Brigade of the 4th Armored Division of the Syrian Army, a division under the command of the Syrian president’s brother, Maher Assad.

    The nerve gas shells were fired from a military base in a mountain range to the west of Damascus, the Channel 2 report said.

    The embattled regime has concentrated its vast stocks of chemical weaponry in just two or three locations, the report continued, under the control of Syrian Air Force Intelligence, itself reporting to the President ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-26/israel-claims-have-intercepted-syrian-regime-chatter-confirming-assad-behind-attack

  34. “@gabriellechan: KRudd at Lowy: Abbott ran partisan campaign opposed to our campaign for the UN security council. What will he do if he finds himself prez?”

  37. Things moving fast or just posturing ?

    [ Syriana: Official Tells CNN US Could Strike Within Hours; Russia Warns Against Attack

    WAR DRUMS: An official tells @CNN The U.S. could strike #Syria within hours- @PoliticaILine -Israelis scramble for gas masks- @TimesofIsrael

    — Breaking911 (@Breaking911) August 26, 2013

    BREAKING NEWS: @RepPeteKing ‘I BELIEVE THE PRESIDENT CAN TAKE ACTION WITHOUT AUTHORIZATION OG CONGRESS.’ #911BUFF

    — Operator (@911BUFF) August 26, 2013

    MISSILE STRIKES ON SYRIA LIKELY RESPONSE TO CHEMICAL ATTACK. CNN. #911BUFF

    — Operator (@911BUFF) August 26, 2013

    And once again, here is the Russian foreign minister Lavrov warning against an intervention without a UN vote first

    Oh, and somehow North Korea is involved now too:

    TURKEY BLOCKS NORTH KOREA WEAPON SHIPMENT TO SYRIA, SANKEI SAYS]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-26/syriana-official-tells-cnn-us-could-strike-within-hours-russia-warns-against-attack

  38. guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, August 27, 2013 at 9:45 am | PERMALINK
    @bencubby: Tony Abbott’s ‘direct action’ #climate plan would have cost polluters more than the mining tax did last year. http://t.co/oz9m7H1qsP

    ———–

    Abbott lies come out again he always had an carbon price/tax

  41. make ads kevin!

    10 years from now the decision to roll out FOC to every home in the country will look like a no-brainer……

  43. Darn
    Posted Tuesday, August 27, 2013 at 9:52 am | PERMALINK
    Neil Mitchell trying to defend the indefensible – wants to argue that the media is not biased against the government.

    ——————-

    lol

    If they werent then Abbott would not be the leader of the liberal party

  46. Remember as a “responsible” Member of Parliament Abbott was sleeping off a hangover during the voting of the legislation that saved 200,000 jobs

    We can trust him – to be absent during vital and important legislations.

    He was absent during the announcement of the NDIS legislation. So much for “I care” rant

  47. Teams of lawyers are having at it in the AFL Commission HQ. It might not be as exciting as a game of footie, though. One lawyer is reported to have described it as the ‘dullest’ negotiations he has ever been in.

    Poor thing.

  49. Dutton in debate? he can talk? I guess as health minister he’ll have access to an iron lung to see whether he can, contrary to popular belief, work in one. Unlike the other spitty angry men of the right I referred to yesterday, he drools.

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