Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

The weekly campaign Newspoll at least partly corroborates the Coalition swing indicated in all those marginal seat automated polls.

After a steady drip of Newspoll chatter over the past two hours, GhostWhoVotes finally reports the headline figure: 54-46 to the Coalition. The primary votes are 34% for Labor (down one), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Tony Abbott has now comfortably surpassed Kevin Rudd on net approval, his approval rating up three to 41% and disapproval down one to 51%, while Kevin Rudd is down three to 35% and up two to 54%. Rudd however maintains a 43-41 on the head-to-head preferred prime minister rating, down from 46-37. A question on best party to manage the economy has both parties down three points, Labor to 33% and Liberal to 45%.

UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll. This one records only slight shifts on last week, but last week was Labor’s worst result yet in this evidently Labor-leaning series since Kevin Rudd’s return, and the movements this time, slight as they may be, are in the Coalition’s favour. Labor is steady on the primary vote at 36.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 44.5% and the Greens down one to 9.5%. Distributing preferences as per the previous election, the Coalition lead widens slightly from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent allocated preferences, it’s out from 50-50 to 51-49 in the Coalition’s favour. State breakdowns are available at the above link.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research bucks the trend in having Labor at 50-50, up from 51-49 a week ago. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, Labor to 40% and the Coalition to 44%, with the Greens steady on 8% and others down two to 8%. There is also a question on most trusted media outlets for election coverage, which as usual shows public broadcasters far more trusted than commercial ones, and papers which had traditionally been broadsheets more trusted than tabloids. Four times as many respondents (28%) had “no trust at all” in the Daily Telegraph as “a lot of trust” (7%). The Australian, recently heard hectoring the ABC for being too biased to be trusted as a host of leaders’ debates, scored well below the Fairfax papers. Also featured are results on firmness of voting intention and party and leader attributes, which you can read all about here.

UPDATE 3: Now newcomer automated pollster Lonergan makes its first entry in the national polling stakes (UPDATE: Not quite – turns out they did one just after Rudd’s return), and it’s about in the middle of the overall trend at present in having the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition leads 44% to 35%. Lenore Taylor of The Guardian provides the following further detail:

It found Labor’s primary vote in Queensland was 34% compared with the Coalition’s 50%. In NSW, Labor’s primary vote trailed 33% to 47% and in Victoria 32% to 44%.

It also found the Coalition’s lead was bigger with men (46% of the primary vote compared with 35% for Labor) than women (42% to 34%).

The only age bracket in which Labor was in the lead was 18- to 24-year-olds, where it attracted 42% of the primary vote compared with 37% for the Coalition. The Coalition was slightly ahead among 25- to 34-year-olds (39% to 34%) but strongly ahead among 35- to 49-year-olds (44% to 33%) 50 to 64-year-olds (44% to 38%) and the over-65s, where the Coalition leads 53% to Labor’s 30%.

UPDATE 4: And now AMR Research, an online pollster which has published two previous federal voting intention results that were broadly in line with the national trend, echoes the methodologically similar Essential Research in finding a result of 50-50. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, 41% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. There are also a series of head-to-head responses comparing Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott on various attitudinal measures. The poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday from a sample of 1134.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,764 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. “@MikeKellyMP: Pleased to see fact check on Hockey bogus claims on debt on Lateline tonight. Utterly dishonest but typical of last 3 yrs from Coalition.”

  2. Overall a good Q&A

    Tonight convinced me as to why Bowan is Treasurer and Swannie isn’t. A good solid performance.

    Joe clearly is laying the ground work for Austerity, he totally avoided the question on the European failed austerity measures.

    I will repeat what i have said previously, the Liberal Party must have some idea as to where the waste is.

    It has been said from sources within the recruitment industry that the Liberals started sounding people out for roles, which is a sensible approach but if you have the good sense to start that process then surely they have over the past three months been taking a closer look at the budget.

  3. “@MariamVeiszadeh: I thought the Coalition would wait at least until the last week of the election campaign before bringing out the big guns! #Lateline”

  4. we need some debt. debt free is a delusion. better government than private debt – interest is lower.

    debt can be moderated, controlled, but not erased.

    yes bowen should have cited a gonski figure. what was he thinking?

  5. @Sean Tisme


    Come on Sean, even I don’t believe the BS coming out of your mouth.

    Politicians lie, FACT.

  6. Franking credits being reduced? oh Hilarious…I look forward to all those LNP voting people who use franking credits to reduce their taxation, getting a tax bill for the first time in years…should cause a few palpitations…

  7. bowen needs to be hungry, passionate, tough…. put the little fat thug in his place. this is no through the garden time. hope kev takes his wheet bix – where is the scriptwriter??

  8. FWIW Malcolm Farnsworth on the potential size of Labor’s defeat on Sept 7:

    [The marginal seat polling of the past few days shows that the ALP is in serious trouble. Seats that Rudd was supposed to save – “the furniture” – are now back in contention.

    For instance, in New South Wales, Chris Bowen in McMahon is still in trouble. Jason Clare clings to a narrow lead in Blaxland. Lindsay is gone for all money. There’s talk of Kingsford Smith falling. There’s no sign in the polls that Dobell, Robertson, Reid or Banks are safe. Only a disastrous Liberal candidate in Greenway offers any hope for the ALP. We’ve had no polls from Eden-Monaro or Richmond but you have to wonder what’s happening in those regional areas.

    In Victoria, seats thought saved are now back in the mix. Keep your eye on Chisholm, Bruce, Isaacs, McEwen and Bendigo. The JWS poll in Aston shows the Liberals on 63%, an indication of what’s likely happening in neighbouring Deakin and La Trobe.

    In Queensland, Peter Beattie confronts a poll showing the Liberal incumbent in Forde well ahead on 60%. Teresa Gambaro is polling well in Brisbane. Those six or seven seats Rudd was supposed to be winning seem to have evaporated. And does anyone seriously think regional seats will fall when even Brisbane is so hostile?

    Reports out of Tasmania suggest a bad result for Labor. Bass and Braddon seem shaky. In South Australia and Western Australia, the prospect of gains are few. There are more seats at risk.]

    When you start trying to find seats, it’s not pretty.

  9. “@GrogsGamut: Loving @albericie asking Keenan to actualy explain what is the problem the Libs are saying they are solving #lateline”

  10. Sean

    Lets say the Liberals win would you prefer

    a) Lets hide most of our planned cuts and broken promises?
    b) Open and honest assessment that the Government will be reducing spending on lets say $10 Billion per-year over three years with the focus being on the department of silly walks?

  11. the cost of debt is cost of interest – and what is at stake one or two billion a year for full scale reduction. interst in low. lost taxation and revenue, higher unemployment – one side of equation. one or two billion saved other side. geez, and I haven’t read a page of economics, and dont wear treasurer badge

  12. ST @1280 How many votes will they lose in other seats by this completely idiotic dodgy deal over a beer?

    Approximately zero. Few will know, notice or care and those who do already vote Liberal.

  13. for years the bloody opposition have projected anxiety, doubt, urgency, dismay, emergency – wonder economy as good as is – tonight was an orgiastic fulfillment of all those prolonged writhing. maybe hock was hot in himself in other sense of word, did anyone notice his pants at end?

  14. a snippet from my twitter timeline

    Mark Norton ‏@mrn487 1m
    #lateline just what we need “mandatory sentencing” this bloke has no idea – why would anyone vote for these morons
    Libby Fordham ‏@LibbyFordham 2m
    Looks like they are going to have to narrow down their spokespeople to just Tony Abbott after Keenan’s performance. Oh my. #lateline

    Fake LNP ‏@FakeLNP 1m
    Michael Keenan’s well placed shot into his own foot is yet more evidence of rising gun crime.

    Lee Skelton ‏@bustersdah 1m
    @albericie Emma where did you pull this idiot from? he’s the best advertisement to vote1 ALP that I have seen so far!

    AshGhebranious ‏@AshGhebranious 1m
    Go Emma #lateline LOL Watching Keenan wilt is hilarious #ausvotes
    Mark ‏@markjs1 1m
    .@RocketRod69 @NeilParsonsEsq …he’s Liberal spokesperson on border protection …least think that’s his title 😉
    View conversation]

  15. Sean Tisme

    Posted Monday, August 19, 2013 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    If the unhingement here is anything to go by Hockey absolutely owned Boy Bowen

    Have worked out how 150 approx. asylum seekers were processed through Nauru when the boats has stopped?

    Serious question that you are avoiding…

  16. sean

    wrong again child

    bowen was very assured, and your bundle of lard was anything but. cool vs hot, take yr pick what you want in government. cool is labor, they will win

  17. So just so I can clarify, according to the rusties and associated ALP drones, when the ALP makes cuts to the public service, social welfare etc then they are prudent loving cuts from a party that “cares”. A cent more in cuts by anyone else (especially the coalition) is automatically a “cut to the bone”, austerity (FFS i really wish the drones would learn what that actually means) and the whole economy will plunge into recession. Not accounting for an already failing economy with weaker economic growth, likely 1% higher unemployment and not so flash business sentiment because that is all irrelevant in the scheme of Messiah Kev and his saving the world from the GFC.

    So much for Messiah Kev and his taking an axe to the public service. That would make a great election ad.

  18. Henry
    Posted Monday, August 19, 2013 at 11:05 pm | PERMALINK
    Oh dear, this is one of the worst interviews I have ever seen.
    It’s train wreck territor

    what interview?

  19. What will an Abbott government look like?

    I don’t agree with all of it, but it’s hard not to agree with his assessment of the environment, public education, and middle class welfare. The conclusion as well:

    [What we can look forward to, however, is the gaffes. The mistakes. The sexism. Avoidance of justifying policies and actions. Walking away from press conferences. Spectacularly poor decisions. All of those things we have seen and will continue to see under an Abbott Government. The cartoonists will love it. ]

  20. Anyone got gun crime stats for Sydney between 2007 and now??

    Labor seem to have let boats come through the back door and guns through the front door

  21. Okay lets remove Health, Defense and Education from potential cuts.

    This leaves the social welfare sector.

    Okay we know that there is $5.3 billion worth of savings but Tone has indicated that he likes that waste and would like to see more of it so where are the savings.

  22. hock should simply say they intend to cut debt by $40 b a year. they is what they are saying. i defy anyone to explain how this will not be economic freefall.

  23. [Libby Fordham ‏@LibbyFordham 2m
    Looks like they are going to have to narrow down their spokespeople to just Tony Abbott after Keenan’s performance. Oh my. #lateline]

    This guy should have put his hand up to go to the toilet or something, then escape out the window.

  24. @Sean/1682


    Sydney: Fraud (up 21.1%)
    Hunter: Assault – domestic violence related (up 17.9%) and
    break and
    enter dwelling (up 16.4%)
    Richmond-Tweed: Assault – domestic violence related (up 6.1%) and
    fraud (up 20.5%)
    Mid-North Coast: Assault – domestic violence related (up 22.9%),
    assault – non-domestic violence related (up 6.9%),
    sexual assault (up 19.4%) and
    steal from dwelling (up 6.4%)
    Northern: Assault – domestic violence related (up 8.5%),
    break and enter dwelling (up 31.5%),
    motor vehicle theft (up 34.1%) and
    steal from dwelling (up 17.0%)
    South Eastern: Steal from retail store (up 57.2%)
    Murrumbidgee: Assault – domestic violence related (up 9.6%)
    Far West: Break and enter non-dwelling (up 36.6%) and steal from motor vehicle (up 59.0%).

    Inner Sydney: Steal from dwelling (up 13.5%) and fraud (up 31.6%)
    Eastern Suburbs: Steal from retail store (up 26.6%) and fraud (up 13.2%)
    St George-Sutherland: Steal from dwelling (up 12.4%) and fraud (up 22.8%)
    Canterbury-Bankstown: Fraud (up 33.8%)
    Fairfield-Liverpool: Assault – domestic violence related (up 7.5%) and fraud (up 31.5%)
    Inner Western Sydney: Steal from dwelling (up 34.3%) and fraud (up 32.7%)
    Central Western Sydney: Assault – domestic violence related (up 5.8%) and steal from retail store (up 20.9%)
    Blacktown: Steal from person (up 5.7%)
    Lower Northern Sydney: Steal from dwelling (up 12.5%)
    Central Northern Sydney: Fraud (up 21.9%)
    Northern Beaches: Malicious damage to property (up 16.9%)
    Newcastle: Assault – domestic violence related (up 21.1%) and break and enter dwelling (up 17.9%).
    Possession and/or use of cocaine (up 43.5%)
    Possession and/or use of amphetamines (up 30.7%)
    Possession and/or use of ecstasy (up 77.5%)
    Possession and/or use of other drugs (up 17.6%)
    Dealing, trafficking in ecstasy (up 52.7%)
    Other drug offences (up 14.1%)

  25. [Whilst i am generally supportive of the idea of getting tougher on crime but generally crime is a state issue]

    Hand guns being smuggled into Sydney is a Federal Customs issue…

  26. [Okay we know that there is $5.3 billion worth of savings but Tone has indicated that he likes that waste and would like to see more of it so where are the savings.]

    This is the $70 billion question.

  27. [Whilst i am generally supportive of the idea of getting tougher on crime but generally crime is a state issue]

    True, and particularly since from what i have seen reported tonight a lot of the relevant guns are ones that have been imported into Australia legally and stolen, or are ones that were never handed in during the buyback and are now traded underground.

    Cant really see a Fed role in this.

  28. We can safely (hopefully) assume that Hockey will be moved from treasury within a year of Abbott govt, in favour of Turnbull. That said, I didn’t see Q & A, but based on comments here Bowen didn’t do crash hot against him. Bowen is about as weak as Hockey it seems but he was the last (ex-) front bencher standing when Kev recycled the knife.

    Is Nielsen (45/55 Lab/Lib?) due out soon?

  29. Sean

    You must have had a belly laugh listening to the interview with Michael keenan on Lateline.

    Talking about shooting oneself in the foot with a triple pike. How embarrassment.

  30. [Mike Kelly MP ‏@MikeKellyMP 22s
    Why is it that Coalition PPL funding measures that will cut into retirement incomes not being covered by media?]

    Typical. Media frenzy whenever someone from the ALP scratches their butt, but a major change in retirement incomes proposed by LNP? Meh…

    We’re very poorly served by our media. Journos – don’t you think retirees ought to at least know this?

  31. geoffrey@1680

    Posted Monday, August 19, 2013 at 11:05 pm | PERMALINK
    Oh dear, this is one of the worst interviews I have ever seen.
    It’s train wreck territor

    what interview?

    Lateline Geoffrey.
    Emma was cruelly eviscerating the opposition spokesman on border protection Michael Keenan and his policy on gun smuggling.
    Basically she called him out on his lies with facts.
    Terrible effort from Keenan.

  32. imacca

    I know which is why i question Tone needing to make a big deal of it when the real issues facing this country relate to the economy.

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