After a steady drip of Newspoll chatter over the past two hours, GhostWhoVotes finally reports the headline figure: 54-46 to the Coalition. The primary votes are 34% for Labor (down one), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Tony Abbott has now comfortably surpassed Kevin Rudd on net approval, his approval rating up three to 41% and disapproval down one to 51%, while Kevin Rudd is down three to 35% and up two to 54%. Rudd however maintains a 43-41 on the head-to-head preferred prime minister rating, down from 46-37. A question on best party to manage the economy has both parties down three points, Labor to 33% and Liberal to 45%.
UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll. This one records only slight shifts on last week, but last week was Labor’s worst result yet in this evidently Labor-leaning series since Kevin Rudd’s return, and the movements this time, slight as they may be, are in the Coalition’s favour. Labor is steady on the primary vote at 36.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 44.5% and the Greens down one to 9.5%. Distributing preferences as per the previous election, the Coalition lead widens slightly from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent allocated preferences, it’s out from 50-50 to 51-49 in the Coalition’s favour. State breakdowns are available at the above link.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research bucks the trend in having Labor at 50-50, up from 51-49 a week ago. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, Labor to 40% and the Coalition to 44%, with the Greens steady on 8% and others down two to 8%. There is also a question on most trusted media outlets for election coverage, which as usual shows public broadcasters far more trusted than commercial ones, and papers which had traditionally been broadsheets more trusted than tabloids. Four times as many respondents (28%) had “no trust at all” in the Daily Telegraph as “a lot of trust” (7%). The Australian, recently heard hectoring the ABC for being too biased to be trusted as a host of leaders’ debates, scored well below the Fairfax papers. Also featured are results on firmness of voting intention and party and leader attributes, which you can read all about here.
UPDATE 3: Now newcomer automated pollster Lonergan makes its first entry in the national polling stakes (UPDATE: Not quite – turns out they did one just after Rudd’s return), and it’s about in the middle of the overall trend at present in having the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition leads 44% to 35%. Lenore Taylor of The Guardian provides the following further detail:
It found Labor’s primary vote in Queensland was 34% compared with the Coalition’s 50%. In NSW, Labor’s primary vote trailed 33% to 47% and in Victoria 32% to 44%.
It also found the Coalition’s lead was bigger with men (46% of the primary vote compared with 35% for Labor) than women (42% to 34%).
The only age bracket in which Labor was in the lead was 18- to 24-year-olds, where it attracted 42% of the primary vote compared with 37% for the Coalition. The Coalition was slightly ahead among 25- to 34-year-olds (39% to 34%) but strongly ahead among 35- to 49-year-olds (44% to 33%) 50 to 64-year-olds (44% to 38%) and the over-65s, where the Coalition leads 53% to Labor’s 30%.
UPDATE 4: And now AMR Research, an online pollster which has published two previous federal voting intention results that were broadly in line with the national trend, echoes the methodologically similar Essential Research in finding a result of 50-50. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, 41% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. There are also a series of head-to-head responses comparing Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott on various attitudinal measures. The poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday from a sample of 1134.
Great argument on manufacturing Jo. You have just argued that regardless of carbon price it would still cost your mate more to produce here. Your point is??
Dopey wants to cut the carbon tax that 500 big business pay but wants 3000 big businesses to fund his PPL.
Great Big New Tax for paid parental leave!
FFF ( the formerly fat fck) has spent the evening blustering carbon tax, pink batts and stimulus cheques
Can’t believe Bowen isn’t referring to the PPL tax on 3000 companies in reply to the carbon ‘tax’!
Get ruthless, or go home!
The franking tax issue really depends on each individual taxpayer’s income and effective tax rate.
Bowen gives zinger as last word.
Playing with Super and the nest eggs of the retired a big no no … all those baby boomers who saved up and gone into retirement or planning to shortly will not be happy with any reductions.
Maybe that should be the next Rudd video…if you are retired or planning retirement Mr Abbot and Joe Hockey will be taking away some of your retirement money to pay for their policies. Suck it up.
I think I’m going to have to watch this when the abc put it up online 😛
[if you are retired or planning retirement Mr Abbot and Joe Hockey will be taking away some of your retirement money to pay for their policies. Suck it up.]
Agreed. This may not be a huge issue for everybody, but will push some buttons if its properly publicized.
“@nathvalvo: Joe Hockey wins at reading a teleprompter. #QandA”
Don’t worry, I won’t share my opinion here.
chalk that up a Hockey goal
“@owrangle: If Tony and Joe get in, join your union Australians. #qanda”
Woohoo Tom Watson next week!
[Space Kidette @SpaceKidette 52s
Reduce the burden on taxpayers? It is the lowest it has been in decades! #qanda]
Field or ice, rummel?
Next week on QandA Tom Watson!!! Kelly O’Bigmouth, Bill Shorten and the odious Nick Cator.
Win to Bowen, but not by as much as i thought it would be during the 1st half. Unfortunately JoHo may have a get out of jail free card for his rather dismal performance since Bowen was evasive over the long range funding for Gonski.
Yes certainly a Hockey own goal. Agree entirely.
TP … yes surprised the ALP haven’t made more of the franking credits issue … but still time to stir the pot …certainly the retiree vote is the ALPs Achilees heel.
Lady Miranda Ann Caulfeild Ackermann-Boltt
Posted Monday, August 19, 2013 at 9:33 pm | Permalink
So it’s only 5 days between election day and swearing in day?!?
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If there is any justice Abbott and the Libs will be doing a lot of swearing (and cursing) after losing the lection on the same day as the election.
[Agreed. This may not be a huge issue for everybody, but will push some buttons if its properly publicized.]
The grey haired is a large demographic.
[DisplayName
Posted Monday, August 19, 2013 at 10:40 pm | PERMALINK
Field or ice, rummel?]
field, hockey looked a tad hot
Next week will be worth watching for Tom Watson alone.
[TP … yes surprised the ALP haven’t made more of the franking credits issue … but still time to stir the pot …certainly the retiree vote is the ALPs Achilees heel.]
And there are none more focused on money issues that those over 50.
Why was Hockey continually allowed to interrupt and ask Bowen questions?
Why didn’t Bowen make fact of the PPL TAX?
rummel@1622
You find field hockey sexier than ice hockey?
For those who thought Wakefield might be close – have a gander at this goose.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=N1imqWLjIvY
“@Peter_J_King: Nearly four years since Tony has been on #qanda”
confessions
Posted Monday, August 19, 2013 at 10:35 pm | Permalink
Can’t believe Bowen isn’t referring to the PPL tax on 3000 companies in reply to the carbon ‘tax’!
Get ruthless, or go home!
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Yep – he missed that one.
Be interesting to see what the carbon price costs (real) cost business and industry compared to the PPL.
Banks have stated they will need to increase interest rates 0.5%, how much did interest rates go up due to the carbon price?
Woolworths are estimating PPL will cost them $40 million – what is Woollies carbon price bill?
That’s why Labor are losing.
Bowen should have knocked Hockey out, it wouldn’t have been hard to do!
I would have told him to shut up with his constant interruptions for starters!
In case anyone is wondering, the AMR poll like Essential is online only. It’s not surprising that both online only polls give such a favourable result to Rudd.
I suppose it provides a broad spectrum of results, though.
Interesting 7:30 report
“CHRIS UHLMANN: In a sign of how desperate this race is becoming for Labor, in a press conference yesterday, the Prime Minister said “cut” or “cutting” 57 times and name-checked the Opposition Leader 40 times.”
“CHRIS UHLMANN: The problem with the argument is this government has made significant cuts of its own, including axing over $700 million in benefits to single mothers from January this year.
How many of those $5 or $50 notes did you take out of the pockets as single mothers. Will they see that as a cut to the bone or just a flesh wound?
KEVIN RUDD: When it comes to all Australians they benefit from health, including single mothers, they benefit from the education system which we’re properly investing in. To sustain them at a time when Mr Abbott offers them the following: cutting to their – cuts to their schools. Cuts to their hospital system. Cuts to their basic health services. Cuts to their Schoolkids Bonus. Let’s cut to the chase on that one, Mr Uhlmann.
CHRIS UHLMANN: How much did you cut Prime Minister?
KEVIN RUDD: These figures are all outlined in the budget. I don’t intend to engage in a conversation which pretends, Mr Uhlmann, that that is somehow one part only of a total equation which affects what we provide to all families, including those who are in receipt of the range of supports we provide versus Mr Abbott who is eating away, eating away and eating away at what families can provide. That’s the truth here.”
AA
Why didn’t Bowen say that?
Sheezus, then they want to know why Labor are losing?
It SUX
Lateline fact checking not good for Hockey
@morpheus/1632
So let see, someone who cuts some, or cut alot, which choice do you prefer?
Stop being ignorant!
Thomas. Paine.
Posted Monday, August 19, 2013 at 10:36 pm | Permalink
Playing with Super and the nest eggs of the retired a big no no … all those baby boomers who saved up and gone into retirement or planning to shortly will not be happy with any reductions.
Maybe that should be the next Rudd video…if you are retired or planning retirement Mr Abbot and Joe Hockey will be taking away some of your retirement money to pay for their policies. Suck it up.
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I was forced to retire just in the last week. Fortunately I have some savings and have left my super in the fund.
Depending on the outcome on 7/913 I may well be drawing it and putting it under the mattress.
Fessy 1502
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP 2m
Fact: Robert Menzies handed down 17 consecutive budget deficits. #QandA
Well that doesn’t surprise for most Liberal leaders have delivered deficits.
They were more interested in creating wealth.
Official Fact Check Conclusion on debt by ABC
Exaggerated
River @1631
If that is true then it is very worrying because they can ONLY get 50/50 whereas the ALP needs substantial seat wins to cover the seats they will lose or the independent seats going to the coalition.
Centre
Posted Monday, August 19, 2013 at 10:47 pm | Permalink
AA
Why didn’t Bowen say that?
Sheezus, then they want to know why Labor are losing?
It SUX
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One can only hope he is not only kicking himself for missing it but his advisers are telling him it’s cost him a carton or two for screwing up
What I demand to know is how many of Joe Hockey’s dead people who were sent cheques spent the cheques?
I would also like to ask why Chris Bowen didn’t ask that question?
[AA
Why didn’t Bowen say that?
Sheezus, then they want to know why Labor are losing?
It SUX]
Not saying it late at night not such a big deal….but they should have full page ads, or TV ads aimed at the over 50s that Abbott is going to take from them to pay for his policies.
And don’t have to be too specific.. just old people Abbott is gonna take your money.. Labor playing by Queensbury rules, the Libs making shit up and full BS most stuff.
[ hockey looked a tad hot]
You find Hockey “hot” ??
I worry for you rummel. I really do.
Presumably well heeled LNP voters on here, with their commitment to middle class welfare through the LNP PPL scheme, are also comfortable with a 1.5% reduction in their annual franking credit tax refunds. How very civic minded and generous of you all…
morpheus
Posted Monday, August 19, 2013 at 10:47 pm | Permalink
Interesting 7:30 report
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I think Rudd got it part right. People know how much was cut and that the cut took place, don’t try to dance around it.
But he is also right about how other benefits have increased and what Abbott will do.
I’ll sober up and probably change my view…we’ll see.
Thomas. Paine @1597
Because the ALP have been playing retirees (especially self funded) for years. The superannuation changes and the CT have both hit retirees and probably a hell of a lot harder than anything the PPL could do. So if the ALP want to play the point the finger game again, they better clean the faeces of it first. Glass houses….
bowen ok, better than swan, but o for a keating
to start with, lbs, the party’s over. there are no howard boom years coming up – this is a BIG liberal lie. the drover’s dog could have run this country in decade before 2007 – labor would have made more productive use of wealth. blind freddy could produce surplus and spend money.
second lie. there is no fat, there is no fat savings to be had. the liberals will ruins his economy
bowen was good but a little quiet. joe was obnoxious pompous constantly speaking over and trying to distract bowen. no goal there.
Pensioners probably still remember who it was that changed the franking credits law to enable excess credits to be refunded on the first place.
bemused
A pity you did not get that question asked on QandA. Great question.
imacca
Posted Monday, August 19, 2013 at 10:53 pm | Permalink
hockey looked a tad hot
You find Hockey “hot” ??
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hot under the collar