Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

The weekly campaign Newspoll at least partly corroborates the Coalition swing indicated in all those marginal seat automated polls.

After a steady drip of Newspoll chatter over the past two hours, GhostWhoVotes finally reports the headline figure: 54-46 to the Coalition. The primary votes are 34% for Labor (down one), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Tony Abbott has now comfortably surpassed Kevin Rudd on net approval, his approval rating up three to 41% and disapproval down one to 51%, while Kevin Rudd is down three to 35% and up two to 54%. Rudd however maintains a 43-41 on the head-to-head preferred prime minister rating, down from 46-37. A question on best party to manage the economy has both parties down three points, Labor to 33% and Liberal to 45%.

UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll. This one records only slight shifts on last week, but last week was Labor’s worst result yet in this evidently Labor-leaning series since Kevin Rudd’s return, and the movements this time, slight as they may be, are in the Coalition’s favour. Labor is steady on the primary vote at 36.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 44.5% and the Greens down one to 9.5%. Distributing preferences as per the previous election, the Coalition lead widens slightly from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent allocated preferences, it’s out from 50-50 to 51-49 in the Coalition’s favour. State breakdowns are available at the above link.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research bucks the trend in having Labor at 50-50, up from 51-49 a week ago. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, Labor to 40% and the Coalition to 44%, with the Greens steady on 8% and others down two to 8%. There is also a question on most trusted media outlets for election coverage, which as usual shows public broadcasters far more trusted than commercial ones, and papers which had traditionally been broadsheets more trusted than tabloids. Four times as many respondents (28%) had “no trust at all” in the Daily Telegraph as “a lot of trust” (7%). The Australian, recently heard hectoring the ABC for being too biased to be trusted as a host of leaders’ debates, scored well below the Fairfax papers. Also featured are results on firmness of voting intention and party and leader attributes, which you can read all about here.

UPDATE 3: Now newcomer automated pollster Lonergan makes its first entry in the national polling stakes (UPDATE: Not quite – turns out they did one just after Rudd’s return), and it’s about in the middle of the overall trend at present in having the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition leads 44% to 35%. Lenore Taylor of The Guardian provides the following further detail:

It found Labor’s primary vote in Queensland was 34% compared with the Coalition’s 50%. In NSW, Labor’s primary vote trailed 33% to 47% and in Victoria 32% to 44%.

It also found the Coalition’s lead was bigger with men (46% of the primary vote compared with 35% for Labor) than women (42% to 34%).

The only age bracket in which Labor was in the lead was 18- to 24-year-olds, where it attracted 42% of the primary vote compared with 37% for the Coalition. The Coalition was slightly ahead among 25- to 34-year-olds (39% to 34%) but strongly ahead among 35- to 49-year-olds (44% to 33%) 50 to 64-year-olds (44% to 38%) and the over-65s, where the Coalition leads 53% to Labor’s 30%.

UPDATE 4: And now AMR Research, an online pollster which has published two previous federal voting intention results that were broadly in line with the national trend, echoes the methodologically similar Essential Research in finding a result of 50-50. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, 41% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. There are also a series of head-to-head responses comparing Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott on various attitudinal measures. The poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday from a sample of 1134.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,764 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. The Greens 9%?

    I might give some of the bookies a call to frame a market on what % the Greens will poll.

    I might just win yet 😎

    The Greens will poll in the sevens%.

  2. [Polls reflecting the qualitative vibe we were speculating on last week (and heckled that we have no numbers to back them up – there they are!)]

    Pretty much.

  3. I liked Galaxy poll better.

    Nasty result.

    Bring on Essential.

    Things will improve – I expect it to end up no worse than 52.5% on 7/9. Possibly better, though that will take a minor miracle.

    While there’s Abbott there’s hope of course.

    Nite all.

  4. LNP @ 47 is serious…

    I wonder if there will be a “stampede effect” that took place in NSW and QLD?

    Obviously the ALP can’t fool the voters with the leadership problems.

  5. leftye
    [Im surprised you think its an actual result, Mick.]

    Maybe not but this is: 54/46 Libs/Labs
    Rudd: Satisified 35, Dissatisfied 54
    Abbott: Satisified 41, Dissatisfied 51
    PPM: Rudd 43, Abbott 41

    can you give me a couple of round of “I am not worthy now” just before I turn in?

  6. Rudd’s net satisfaction now WORSE than Abbott and his lead as PPM is now negligible.

    This thing is headed for a disaster.

    Two weeks ago I said 80+. I was being too kind to us.

  7. [Rudd: Satisified 35, Dissatisfied 54
    Abbott: Satisified 41, Dissatisfied 51
    PPM: Rudd 43, Abbott 41]

    What? and your spelling is atrocious.

  8. wk

    There are no more leadership problems in Labor BUT the voters are going to punish Labor very very hard.

    Ruddy two wrongs don’t make a right. You’re going to cop the smashing 🙁

  9. And i thought my 90 seat prediction for the Liberals was at the top of what they could achieve.

    Using very unscientific logic the election result will be between 55/45 & 52/48

    Today’s ALP ad (he wins you lose)may bring some back to the ALP but its clear to me that the voters don’t want this government anymore.

    Strangely i don’t see the same level of hate towards it as that which i saw towards Howard in 07 or Keating in 96.

  10. The GST and Costings is starting to bite. Next weeks polls are going to be interesting after the QandA debate as more people realise the LNP is treating voters as if they are mushrooms.

  11. Thanks to Kevin Bonham for that lateline 1993 link, two days before that election. Just finished watching it.
    Fascinating. Of the pundits on the panel Alan Ramsey and Rod Cameron both called it a clear win for the coalition, whilst Hugh MacKay said it was too close to call, as the undecideds was very high.
    Interestingly there was not one mention of Hewson’s birthday cake moment with Mike Willessee. Perhaps that was an episode whose influence has proven greater in the re-telling.

  12. A anti GST scare isn’t cutting though and the issue was less to do with the tax and more to do with honesty for the Liberals have said that they will review it and take proposals to the following election yet now are not saying that.

  13. Rudd’s return is pretty much going how I thought it probably would. I supported his return because Gillard was in freefall at the end but acknowledged that it would be a roll of the dice and probably will fail but it’s worth a shot.

    And don’t give me “This is still better than what Gillard would have achieved” because I actually think it’s starting to be on par.

  14. [Today’s ALP ad (he wins you lose)may bring some back to the ALP]

    Those ads are an embarrassment and will do nothing to bring any voters back.

    They are to keep the primary above 35 ie. keeping some semblance of a base.

    Those ads are code for “we know we have lost this one”.

  15. [quote]I get the feeling NSW is an ugly site for Labor right now. (Uglier than elsewhere)[/quote]

    Jesus. I tried suggesting that last night and certain Labor supporters jumped down my throat.

    You getting away with it is favourtism 🙁

  16. Ironically, the coalitions failure to release their numbers makes it much harder for Labor to prosecute its cuts and GST case

  17. Anyway, this poll isn’t trustworthy until other polls verify it. But the trendline is clear and Rudd’s in trouble.

    I really don’t like Rudd so I’m happy, though.

  18. I haven’t seen a Coalition attack as in QLD so maybe they aren’t running them up here? The main Coalition ad here is a positive ad about the Coalition plan for Australia.

  19. [Trend anyone?]

    Trend is looking ugly alright, it is as if there has not even been a campaign as the immediate post-Ruddstoration polls was the high water mark.

  20. The cream on the cake with a poll result like this is the despair that will infest the Labor ranks. The class of 2013, ie all those pollies who are retiring because of Rudd/Gillard/Rudd, have no reason now to bottle up their anger; and the Labor foot-soldiers will be heading for the exit. As I’ve said a dozen times before, it was obvious this was gonna happen and it couldn’t happen to a nicer earwax eater. Oh happy happy Julia .. we share your joy, even though you were only marginally better than Rudd.

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