After a steady drip of Newspoll chatter over the past two hours, GhostWhoVotes finally reports the headline figure: 54-46 to the Coalition. The primary votes are 34% for Labor (down one), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Tony Abbott has now comfortably surpassed Kevin Rudd on net approval, his approval rating up three to 41% and disapproval down one to 51%, while Kevin Rudd is down three to 35% and up two to 54%. Rudd however maintains a 43-41 on the head-to-head preferred prime minister rating, down from 46-37. A question on best party to manage the economy has both parties down three points, Labor to 33% and Liberal to 45%.
UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll. This one records only slight shifts on last week, but last week was Labor’s worst result yet in this evidently Labor-leaning series since Kevin Rudd’s return, and the movements this time, slight as they may be, are in the Coalition’s favour. Labor is steady on the primary vote at 36.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 44.5% and the Greens down one to 9.5%. Distributing preferences as per the previous election, the Coalition lead widens slightly from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent allocated preferences, it’s out from 50-50 to 51-49 in the Coalition’s favour. State breakdowns are available at the above link.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research bucks the trend in having Labor at 50-50, up from 51-49 a week ago. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, Labor to 40% and the Coalition to 44%, with the Greens steady on 8% and others down two to 8%. There is also a question on most trusted media outlets for election coverage, which as usual shows public broadcasters far more trusted than commercial ones, and papers which had traditionally been broadsheets more trusted than tabloids. Four times as many respondents (28%) had “no trust at all” in the Daily Telegraph as “a lot of trust” (7%). The Australian, recently heard hectoring the ABC for being too biased to be trusted as a host of leaders’ debates, scored well below the Fairfax papers. Also featured are results on firmness of voting intention and party and leader attributes, which you can read all about here.
UPDATE 3: Now newcomer automated pollster Lonergan makes its first entry in the national polling stakes (UPDATE: Not quite – turns out they did one just after Rudd’s return), and it’s about in the middle of the overall trend at present in having the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition leads 44% to 35%. Lenore Taylor of The Guardian provides the following further detail:
It found Labor’s primary vote in Queensland was 34% compared with the Coalition’s 50%. In NSW, Labor’s primary vote trailed 33% to 47% and in Victoria 32% to 44%.
It also found the Coalition’s lead was bigger with men (46% of the primary vote compared with 35% for Labor) than women (42% to 34%).
The only age bracket in which Labor was in the lead was 18- to 24-year-olds, where it attracted 42% of the primary vote compared with 37% for the Coalition. The Coalition was slightly ahead among 25- to 34-year-olds (39% to 34%) but strongly ahead among 35- to 49-year-olds (44% to 33%) 50 to 64-year-olds (44% to 38%) and the over-65s, where the Coalition leads 53% to Labor’s 30%.
UPDATE 4: And now AMR Research, an online pollster which has published two previous federal voting intention results that were broadly in line with the national trend, echoes the methodologically similar Essential Research in finding a result of 50-50. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, 41% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. There are also a series of head-to-head responses comparing Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott on various attitudinal measures. The poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday from a sample of 1134.
[What about Qld?]
QLD’s pretty low as is, I think Rudd will save a few seats there that would’ve otherwise fallen but it’s not going to be great there either.
I’ve seen two coalition attack ads today during the footy, but the rest this campaign have all been positive.
Crank
Yes the trend, yes i did write that the trend was towards the government but at the time the polls had trended back towards the ALP from the Liberals being 10 TPP ahead to being within 4 TPP.
i also did said that Rudd at no stage has out polled where he was when he was last leader.
I also have been saying for two years that the Liberals had an election winning lead.
guytar @26
“The GST and Costings is starting to bite.”
Are you suggesting Messiah Kev and the ALP have been quiet on this ? Every 2nd word from Messiah Kev during the debate was GST/Costings.
That netsat for Rudd is his equal worst ever; identical to when dumped in 2010.
As for Abbott, his best since July 2011.
My prediction from last year that he wouldn’t make it above -10 is in a coma and will probably die a screaming horrible death next week. 🙂
If I hear ‘let’s just wait for the next set of numbers’ one more time…!
We’ll be sitting here at 7.30 on election night, watching the debacle unfold, and some on here will be saying ‘let’s just wait until 10.30, who knows?’
If there’s one thing I hope happens from this election loss it is that some individuals who frequent this blog spend 3 years speaking to people about politics on other forums and in other contexts.
The PB bubble has seriously affected people’s reality.
Trend will likely be closer to 53/47 than 52/48.
Conceded without reservation, Mick. Thats a 2-point drift in your favour.
Dont blame me, I voted for Galaxy.
One note of caution where is this swing strongest, are we sure that it isn’t Liberal held seats and safe ALP seats swinging.
[You getting away with it is favourtism]
Trust me. I rarely get away with shit on here. If I don’t get told I don’t know what I am talking about or that I have some ridiculous burden of proof to back my speculation up, then it’s because my post was overlooked.
Tomorrow 24 is doing Breakfast from Eden Monaro.
It will be interesting if they have any polling numbers.
So, I can dispense with saying “if” now?
Glory
Totally agree about the need for some to venture out into voter land.
[but it’s not going to be great there either]
No, it’s certainly not appearing that way.
[35 – 54 = -19
41 – 51 = -10
I don’t get how Rudd could be on 43 and Abbott 41 on those figures.]
Easy. 8% dissapprove of Rudd’s performance, but disapprove of Abbott being PM more.
Well name names Gloryc
I already officially called it for Abbott on Aug 11 I think?
Mick77 – Keating got around a 46 in ’93 so don’t count your chickens, Abbott is overwhelming favourite, but it ain’t over until its over
morpheus
I am suggesting that things will change for the better for Labor.
I am not suggesting that it will be enough to win. That is now more of a maybe before the campaign started
Centre – I called it Aug 10 I think.
God, how sad.
Centre
[Howard went for 11 years, Fraser for 8 years, Abbott minimum 6 could go 9, hell maybe 12]
After THLV won in 2007, some said that the next Liberal PM was yet to be born. That was a mistake. Doing the same thing with colours reversed? Equally so.
An Abbott regime will lack the administrative and political integrity to rule effectively. They have done no work on policy and are basically rock throwers. That’s not going to fly for 3 years now that rock throwing is an approved activity in politics.
I don’t see why you’re whinng anyway. It’s not as if you have any serious attachment to distinctive ALP policy — you are planning, if I believe you, to vote for people who will strike it down — and from what else I can see of your politics, your attachment to the ALP seems entirely arbitrary. Now you are predicting politically successful LNP regmes for a decade or so.
As far as I can tell, you stand for no clear idea, but seem to like “the wisdom of crowds” concretised in betting markets. That puts you clearly on the right of the spectrum.
[We’ll be sitting here at 7.30 on election night]
If things keep going as they are it will be done and dusted by 6.45.
[Oh happy happy Julia .. we share your joy, even though you were only marginally better than Rudd.]
Now now… Gillard will remain the worst Prime Minister Australia has ever had.
Don’t take that away from her. Whitlam might have had run away inflation and dodgy financing deals but at least he’s memorable.. we’ve tried forgetting about Gillard already and she’s only been out of the job for 3 weeks!
I must say I am looking forward to MB rubbishing the polls next 🙂
Not that I wanna revive the Rudd/Gillard discussion, but two brief points:
-It is possible that Gillard would have performed better this campaign than Rudd has thus far, given that for all the bashing she got for the 2010 campaign (some unforced errors, some nerves, some leaks), she did grow into the job.
-That said, I think making her task nearly impossible would have been the fact that if she did keep going to the campaign, its extremely likely that Rudd and his supporters would have kept up the distracting antics they were already doing, i.e. the ‘packing up the offices’ stunt.
Well it looks like caucus was played for mugs all along.
The constant leadership meme was always going to be a problem – the electorate can’t stand a government that looks like a rabble and I suspect that I am not the only normally rusted on for whom the knifing of Gillard was the final straw.
The party is about to get its well earned reward.
One thing’s for sure… We won’t see an elected Prime Minister unwillingly replaced for a while.
Do you know what’s happening in voter land?
As we are in the campaign, people are now talking about politics AND all the Labor Party criticisms and negativity are the toast of topic 😎
*night
If
-the carbon/mining taxes are abolished
-PPL implemented
-the budget is back in surplus
-Massive majority
it will be very difficult to see Tone losing in 2016, the Liberals will be able to run a campaign on trust and unity and delivering.
The ALP should be competitive by 2019 or sooner if Tone fails to deliver the above.
I’ll continue to wait till the last week for all polling/stuff up’s.
Coalition Party still yet to release all their costings, savings, etc.
rishane:
The main advantage Gillard had over her successor was she could credibly campaign on Labor’s achievements.
The immediate tinkering with the carbon price after the leadership change just served to reinforce the perception that the man shirks hard decisions.
I”d love to see some polling on that question btw, ie willingness to make hard decisions. Has there been any?
[One thing’s for sure… We won’t see an elected Prime Minister unwillingly replaced for a while.]
I don’t know about that. After 2010, we heard predictions that nobody’d do anything that audacious again. Since then, a first term Victorian Premier and first term NT Chief Minister has been rolled by their own party. While not the federal government, sure, it is still a sign that parties will still go there if they want.
kevin 13 to win
guytaur @73
“I must say I am looking forward to MB rubbishing the polls next”
Don’t tease the “SPECIAL” people. There are enough voices in his head doing that already.
It is my belief that all this could have been different if Rudd had kept his promise of loyalty after his humiliation in Feb 12. Of course that was not in his nature.
On the “attack ads” thing …
Really, the ALP might as well. If they don’t work, then what have they really lost? Not much.
All those they have now they are probably going to keep untl election day. Attacking Abbott hard will either help them claw back some votes or leave them no better.
The mistake was starting off positive, when clearly, they were just gong to pander to populist nonsense. Really, HTLV should have said that as the LNP was already measuring the curtains, and everyone knew the ALP’s policies he was entitled to “hold the LNP to account”. The LNP had spent 3 years saying very little and throwing rocks after all.
Fran
Try not to be a lightweight.
Do you know why Abbott will go for a minimum of 6 years and possibly 9 years?
Because he is the choice of Old Media – silly :kiss:
I’m gonna have fun on election night.
Peak Pewny R.I.P. Yo Byo Tay
Not long now 😀
[quote]Oh happy happy Julia .. we share your joy, even though you were only marginally better than Rudd.[/quote]
One thing about Gillard, she did stuff. I don’t particularly like some of the stuff she did, but she deserves infinite more respect that ‘nothing but talk’ Rudd.
Sean Tisme@72
Fraser, with Howard as treasurer it should be said, is the only pm to give us the triple double – unemployment, inflation and interest rates all above 10%.
So they lose, as do you.
Fran Barlow @85
“Really, the ALP might as well. If they don’t work, then what have they really lost? Not much.”
You obviously didn’t have any recollection of the QLD election and The Blight.
can tell you are a problem gambler Centre because you have completely wiped the fact from your mind you were a big Rudd backer and have moved on to your next bet
Again, I very much doubt this will all end worse than 52.5%, and possibly better, though some minor miracles will need to be wrought, and probably more than one.
Until Essential, I bid you adieu.
[quote]Really, the ALP might as well. If they don’t work, then what have they really lost? Not much.[/quote]
The attack ads was just another reminder to the public that Rudd is nothing but talk.
You say he didn’t lose much, I say he lost credibility.
rishane
I think Julia Gillard showed common sense calling the spill that cost her the Job.
Without a clear majority she was not going to win as disunity continued.
It worked no more instability for Labor so I credit Julia Gillard doing her best for the party.
This has given PMKR the clear air he needs to campaign properly.
Given the situation the Labor party is in with the MSM opposition I also credit PMKR for doing his best for Labor once he regained the leadership.
Those are the positives. Labor is paying the price with the voters for the years of negativity. That of LNP, MSM and self inflicted.
Yes Care and does Ted remind you of anyone
Will clean up the waste
Will scrap Myki, Desal Plant, NS Pipeline
Will deliver surplus
Will maintain jobs
Will bring down the cost of living
Will fix PT
Besides a surplus and the NS Pipeline non of those promises were kept.
O and who is sounding similar, yes the answer is Tone
wal kolla@24
It’s normal. Preferred Prime Minister as measured by every pollster bar ReachTEL has an innate bias to the incumbent. Not quite clear why.
The break-even point on PPM is a lead of 16 points. If the PM is only leading by 2 points then in most cases the party’s losing.
My advice to minimise the carnage, for what it’s worth:
Less ads like this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPeqi7yfcwE and this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kv8WCkKaNxQ
More ads like this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDRYYSy0PRU and this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR4Sxd7ql8I
And PS: there’s no reason Im aware of to think Newspoll more accurate than Galaxy.
Always look on the bright side punters!
Oakeshott Country@84
Don’t disagree with that OC.
If Rudd had put his shoulder to the wheel and supported Julia for the last 3 years instead of whiteanting her then things may have been different.
Disunity is death and it’s ironic that Rudd is now wearing the results of it when he has been the cause for the last 3 years.
It’s not over yet but as it stands now Rudd has a massive shit sandwich coming his way.
[It is my belief that all this could have been different if Rudd had kept his promise of loyalty after his humiliation in Feb 12.]
I think most of us feel that way. Sadly, it was only ever about him and stuff the government and the party!
[I don’t know about that. After 2010, we heard predictions that nobody’d do anything that audacious again. Since then, a first term Victorian Premier and first term NT Chief Minister has been rolled by their own party.]
I think though that the lesson from all this is that voters have quite a different emotional perspective on an elected national leader, and that Labor erred badly when they imagined they were playing much the same game in dumping Rudd as they were with sundry Premiers and Opposition Leaders.