After a steady drip of Newspoll chatter over the past two hours, GhostWhoVotes finally reports the headline figure: 54-46 to the Coalition. The primary votes are 34% for Labor (down one), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Tony Abbott has now comfortably surpassed Kevin Rudd on net approval, his approval rating up three to 41% and disapproval down one to 51%, while Kevin Rudd is down three to 35% and up two to 54%. Rudd however maintains a 43-41 on the head-to-head preferred prime minister rating, down from 46-37. A question on best party to manage the economy has both parties down three points, Labor to 33% and Liberal to 45%.
UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll. This one records only slight shifts on last week, but last week was Labor’s worst result yet in this evidently Labor-leaning series since Kevin Rudd’s return, and the movements this time, slight as they may be, are in the Coalition’s favour. Labor is steady on the primary vote at 36.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 44.5% and the Greens down one to 9.5%. Distributing preferences as per the previous election, the Coalition lead widens slightly from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent allocated preferences, it’s out from 50-50 to 51-49 in the Coalition’s favour. State breakdowns are available at the above link.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research bucks the trend in having Labor at 50-50, up from 51-49 a week ago. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, Labor to 40% and the Coalition to 44%, with the Greens steady on 8% and others down two to 8%. There is also a question on most trusted media outlets for election coverage, which as usual shows public broadcasters far more trusted than commercial ones, and papers which had traditionally been broadsheets more trusted than tabloids. Four times as many respondents (28%) had “no trust at all” in the Daily Telegraph as “a lot of trust” (7%). The Australian, recently heard hectoring the ABC for being too biased to be trusted as a host of leaders’ debates, scored well below the Fairfax papers. Also featured are results on firmness of voting intention and party and leader attributes, which you can read all about here.
UPDATE 3: Now newcomer automated pollster Lonergan makes its first entry in the national polling stakes (UPDATE: Not quite – turns out they did one just after Rudd’s return), and it’s about in the middle of the overall trend at present in having the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition leads 44% to 35%. Lenore Taylor of The Guardian provides the following further detail:
It found Labor’s primary vote in Queensland was 34% compared with the Coalition’s 50%. In NSW, Labor’s primary vote trailed 33% to 47% and in Victoria 32% to 44%.
It also found the Coalition’s lead was bigger with men (46% of the primary vote compared with 35% for Labor) than women (42% to 34%).
The only age bracket in which Labor was in the lead was 18- to 24-year-olds, where it attracted 42% of the primary vote compared with 37% for the Coalition. The Coalition was slightly ahead among 25- to 34-year-olds (39% to 34%) but strongly ahead among 35- to 49-year-olds (44% to 33%) 50 to 64-year-olds (44% to 38%) and the over-65s, where the Coalition leads 53% to Labor’s 30%.
UPDATE 4: And now AMR Research, an online pollster which has published two previous federal voting intention results that were broadly in line with the national trend, echoes the methodologically similar Essential Research in finding a result of 50-50. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, 41% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. There are also a series of head-to-head responses comparing Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott on various attitudinal measures. The poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday from a sample of 1134.
[You must have had a belly laugh listening to the interview with Michael keenan on Lateline.
Talking about shooting oneself in the foot with a triple pike.]
He didn’t seem to be on top of the issues or good at communicating a strong point of view to Leigh Sales.
I much prefer seeing Scott Morrison who is a class A performer and usually has the interviewer licking their wounds by the end of the interview.
Okay. Finished packing.
Thanks for the good wishes, you know who you are.
Am all prepared to take selfies.
Q&A, Lateline. Have no idea who won what, but sounds like twitter’s most terse as usual.
Take care every one.
See you in the spring.
[George Bludger
“If you’d like to look back at our #lateline interview with Michael Keenan…” it will be replayed on the comedy channel
11:18pm – 19 Aug 13]
So Sean decides to change topic now, that he’s been questioned on the interview (who gives a crap)?
They just boast about each other failers.
FFS.
SENATE LEGAL AND CONSTITUTIONAL LEGISLATION COMMITTEE
AUSTRALIAN CUSTOMS SERVICE
Question No. 65
Senator Bishop asked the following question at the hearing on 16 February 2004:
You gave me the figures for the build of the ICS, $35 million; the CCF; 20 million;
the old user mainframe extended usage, $15 million for a whole year. Can you now convert those to the subcomponents of $43 million equity injection?
The answer to the honourable senator’s question is as follows:
No. It should be noted that a significant portion of Customs appropriations funding is ‘general’ funding and is not explicitly tied or itemised against specific activities.
Based on this assessment the total expenditure commitments of Customs totalled $737m and the total funding
available to Customs totalled $694m – indicating a $43m funding shortfall.
Sean T
Leigh Sales???? You fibs are so funny.
[Tom Anderson @TomAnderson62 4m
Just saw Sophie’s promising CCTV cameras. Where in Indi that crime is so bad we need CCTV cameras Sophie? #indivotes]
Typical. She’s never had an original thought in her life.
So Mick: Essential and AMR came in 50-50. Any comments? :p
ah good to know labor tied at least the economic shootout and won the night. for what late night abc worth.
if i hear another liberal talking about tax as other’s people money … it isn’t, it is government money, money owned by ‘other people’ in terms of system of modern civil society. liberals lack political theory, they are not fit to govern
Hockey told us nothing that we haven’t seen in other countries – austerity/cuts/austerity/cuts
Bowen showed there is a vision and a plan
Looks like a battle of the polling methodologies.
Fingers crossed phone polls are more accurate
[So Sean decides to change topic now, that he’s been questioned on the interview]
I admitted he didn’t do well and got dragged into the interviewers talking points.
For example the example the interviewer gave on someone being “compelled” into illegally importing guns into Australia. If I was doing the interview I would have said people have to take responsibility for their actions and people who bring guns to this country are as guilty as the people pulling the trigger.
Simple.. easy to understand message that a majority of people would agree with. Instead he got caught up in the ABC PC Bullshit and had to say some nonsense about legislating so those people wouldn’t be affected by the 5 year mandatory sentence.
I have been a bit surprised at the difficulty politicians of both sides have had in explaining how programs will be funded.
The bleeding obvious answer is: out of revenue received by the government from all forms of taxation.
A bloody simple accounting identity then shows, when all revenue and expenditure is added up, whether you end up with a surplus or deficit.
So Tone and gang have the choice of raising additional income (increasing taxes), cutting govt spending on programs other than their own proposals, or increasing the deficit, or a combination of two or more of these.
They have already revealed their had by their intention to lower the TFT and cut the school kids bonus.
Well someone has to pay for ‘socialism for the rich’ as their PPL clearly is.
Is any of this hard to explain in simple terms?
Hockey – ” $17 billion in savings identifie”
But Joe since then you have promised %billion in business tax cuts, and PPL shows there is a $6 billion shortfall in the big new tax on businesses.
$11 billion is two policy announcements….plus add up all the election promised Abbott has made.
You end up savings of 26 cents
Sean
The fibs should get their own show on the comedy channel because they are a bunch of jokes.
bemused
Perhaps you could have a word to Campaign Headquarters.
Anyhow night all
if i hear another liberal talking about tax as other’s people money … it isn’t, it is government money, money owned by ‘other people’ in terms of system of modern civil society. liberals lack political theory, they are not fit to govern
Liberals generally believe we should increase spending on Defence, Policing, Prisons and subsidies and concessions for people they approve of and that ‘somebody else’ should for it.
Sarah Roberts
Have a fab trip
@Sean/1712
Importing Guns is not the only issue to getting guns In Australia, you have now 3D Printing.
Politicians, like on Broadband like Coles and Woolworths duopoly, always 100 years behind in Technology, because they prefer to put a budget bottom line.
So they cut services instead of fixing the loopholes, increase surveillance (which can mean overtime, etc).
So Politicians own fault for sitting on their asses for last 3 years, while complaining their opponent is much worse.
Why the debate about mandatory sentencing?
Its nothing new…been around for years.
Sophie talking about CCTV to detect crime is clearly focusing on issues in her own backyard …
MM
Touche’
Evening all. Before any comment on Aussie politics, spare a thought for those in Egypt.
[Former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, who was overthrown in an uprising in 2011, will be released from jail within days after a prosecutor cleared him in a corruption case, his lawyer says.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-19/nmubarak-due-to-be-freed-after-being-cleared-in-corruption-case/4898044
Egypt is practically back to the days of a full on military dictatorship again. Never mind Mubarak’s ordering the deaths of many protestors to keep “law and order”, he corruptly amassed billions with no excuse, and the new army leadership will not even punish him for that. The Arab Spring is officially dead in Egypt. Israel must be relieved, though civil war is still a real risk.
Regardless of posturing over a few boat arrivals, there will soon be a wave of very genuine refugees fleeing Egypt. I hope we take some, because their flight will have nothing to do with economic migration. Some arrested protestors have already been reported shot “while trying to break out of custody”. This could get quite ugly.
Re Abbott’s PPL scheme, partly financed by a Great Big New tax on large businesses. If a Labor Government proposed such a thing the Daily Telegraph would have screaming four-foot high headlines on a story prophesying the destruction of the economy, the end of at least one mid-sized country town, inflation rising to unimaginable heights and other doom and gloom, complete with a photoshopped picture of the PM and other ministers as drunken sailors or somesuch.
I wonder if the recent commentary about the Indi contest, and polling in that seat have given the Victorian Liberals cause to consider the 2016 election and getting rid of the current member?
Of course if she is sworn in as a minister in a few weeks, it might be harder to dislodge her.
And that raises the question of whether Abbott will keep his current shadow front bench intact in government? I reckon BBishop will leave the front bench and be elected Speaker. But there are some clear dead wood shadows who could be let go and you wouldn’t miss them at all.
thought for egypt – representative systems of democracy that work and parties that represent. and right mix of religion and politics. not sure what answers the lucky country has on any of these questions
Gee it would be nice to get the list of those 3000 businesses that are going to be hit with the GREAT BIG NEW TAX… and of course it won’t have a flow down effect on the hip pocket nerve of the voters.
It probably won’t even stir up a python thingy squeeze or that Cobra bite zap whatever.
Anyone got an idea on the proposed 3000.
Mick’s avoiding me over those two 50-50 polls today.
Must be disrupting ‘the narrative’. I loved the Essential findings the Murdoch is the least trusted. Gold!
All is not lost yet punters. Far from it.
[If I was doing the interview I would have said people have to take responsibility for their actions and people who bring guns to this country are as guilty as the people pulling the trigger.]
And you would have come across as the right wing dickwad that you are and been caned for missing the point she was making about the functional problems with mandatory sentencing and how it relates to the concept of justice.
jeffemu:
Yes, a distinct list of named names would be nice.
On that note, good night.
Is it true that one of Messiah Kev’s pressers was advertised as using and promoting the NBN but the whole thing was a shambles with cutouts and poor video ?
@morpheus/1731
No.
He wasn’t promoting the NBN.
[So Tone and gang have the choice of raising additional income (increasing taxes), cutting govt spending on programs other than their own proposals, or increasing the deficit, or a combination of two or more of these.]
bemused,
I’ve asked this question of Liberal victims in various forums and not one of them will give a straight answer.
Is Abbott going to
A. Raise taxes
B. Slash spending
C. Admit all his phony rhetoric about debt and deficit just makes him a hypocrite in the making.
Has to be one of those. And so far I’ve yet to find a Liberal that can deal with this.
Bemused? they’re going to lower the tax free threshold again? I thought they were keeping the compensation..? honestly with this lot, how do you know where you will be once they get in? It changes from day to day..
Which 50-50 polls, lefty?
[Bemused? they’re going to lower the tax free threshold again? I thought they were keeping the compensation..? honestly with this lot, how do you know where you will be once they get in? It changes from day to day..]
lyana, You don’t have to look far to realise that Abbott and his mob cannot be trusted on a word they say, if it isn’t the barrage of insulting-to-ones-intelligence made up numbers, or Tony’s own admissions of lying, what really gets me is the sheer gall of a Party pretending to have a policy that isn’t really a policy but just pure political manipulation. And I’m talking there about both direct action and fraudband. Neither of which are workable. Neither of which they have any intention to implement.
Once you get to that breathtaking level of dishonesty its almost beside the point whether they’re being honest about the smaller details.
Two today Cudchewer: Essential and AMR. Both 50-50.
See William’s head post additions on this thread.
lefty
Got me on my last glance before bed.
[So Mick: Essential and AMR came in 50-50. Any comments? :p]
No. We both agreed that Essential is rubbish and what’s AMR? We based our preds on Newspoll & Nielsen and where the hell is the expected 45/55 from Nielsen?
One bet that there’s be no doubt about is no of seats. ALP 60 or less I say, as you’ll recall, over 60 says superoptimist lefty. ‘Nite
It’s a bit hypocritical for the LNP to be talking tough on gun crime when it’s the NSW LNP who are in bed with the Shooters and Fishers party. It seems there’s been a shooting every night in Sydney since BOF started sleeping with the good ol’ boys…
[We both agreed that Essential is rubbish and what’s AMR?]
Nope. Go back and check Mick. We most definitely included Essential, and called ReachTel rubbish.
As for no doubt about 60: have a look a bludgertrack.
Nite.
@Mick77/1738
William and Kevin disagree with your view on Essential.
I agree CC, the LNP are a bunch of clowns. But I think they’ll increase the GST and keep the TFTs as they are and say that’s the compensation…
Just guessing, but they need to get the money from somewhere.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 30s
#Newspoll Rudd & Abbott’s personal traits http://bit.ly/16ZPMn0 #ausvotes
Boring new findings from Newspoll:
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/08/19/1226700/189729-aus-news-file-personalities.pdf
@William/1744
Sounds like earlier comments about Newspoll being sus is correct.
Btw, does anyone have any direct contact with Labor?
William if anyone responds to my post at 1745, that they have actual direct contact with Labor, can send my email.
I’ll be out all day tomorrow.
Night all.
Before I go to bed- As a person who is now a middle income Australian with a mortgage, I cannot see any reason to vote for the LNP. Their ‘big ticket’ items offer me nothing and all I’m seeing is big expensive promises and no way to pay for them- I keep thinking which of my everyday expenses are going to increase and what working conditions am I going to lose to pay for these promises?
I don’t know how anybody could think otherwise.
The question on Newspoll is are they better a picking up a change in sentiment or do they add to a change in sentiment?
Watched the absurd Hockey. Qinline.
Really!
Even persons of some slight discernment would realise the clownish fellow has nothing whatever to offer.
Apart from our AAA to ZZZ.
1736
cud chewer
Hear, hear.