No sign yet of a sample size (UPDATE: It turns out to be a modest 505, with a margin of error approaching 4.5%), but The Australian reports a weekend Newspoll survey of the neighbouring Labor marginals of Robertson and Dobell on the New South Wales central coast points to a combined swing to the Liberals of 7%, more than enough to account for the respective margins of 1.0% and 5.1%. On the primary vote, Labor is on 35% (compared with 43.0% at the 2010 election) and the Coalition is on 50% (41.9%). No detail is provided for other parties and candidates, but evidently Craig Thomson is unlikely to trouble the scoreboard much in his bid to retain Dobell as an independent (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens at 8%, compared with 8.8% in 2010, and others at 7%, compared with 6.3%). On two-party preferred, the Coalition leads 54-46 (53.0-47.0 to Labor in 2010).
The poll also finds the leaders’ personal ratings to be markedly different than the rest of the country, with Kevin Rudd on 39% approval and 54% disapproval compared with 53% and 41% for Tony Abbott, and Abbott leading 47-41 on preferred prime minister. In the national survey conducted on the weekend, Rudd was on 39% and 48% disapproval comapred with 38% and 52% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 46-37 as preferred prime minister.
UPDATE: Now newcomer automated pollster shows a diabolical result for Labor in Lindsay, conducted on Tuesday night from a big sample of 1038. Liberal candidate Fiona Scott’s primary vote is put at no less than 60%, up 17% on 2010, with Labor member David Bradbury on 32%, down 13%. The Guardian quotes the pollster saying a question about how respondents voted in 2010 aligned with the actual result – I will assume this took into account the tendency of poll respondents to over-report having voted for the winner. I am a little more puzzled by the claimed margin of error of 3.7%, which should be more like 3% given the published sample size.
UPDATE 2: Now the Financial Review has a JWS Research automated poll of 568 respondents in Forde with remarkable figures on every front: LNP member Bert van Manen leading Peter Beattie 54% to 33% on the primary vote and 60-40 on two-party preferred, for a swing of 8.4%. As low as van Manen’s national profile may be, the poll gives him a 49% approval rating against 19% disapproval, with Peter Beattie on 35% and 51%. Kevin Rudd’s net approval rating is minus 18% against minus 1% for Tony Abbott. This is one of seven electorate-level JWS Research polls for which results will appear in tomorrow’s Financial Review.
UPDATE 3: Another automated phone poll for Forde, this time from Lonergan in The Guardian, and it’s just as bad for Labor as the JWS Research result. Bert van Manen leads 56% to 34% on the primary vote, with the Greens at just 4% compared with 12% at the 2010 election. While no two-party preferred figure is provided, it would obviously be very similar to JWS Research’s 60-40. The poll has 40% saying Peter Beattie has made them less likely to vote Labor against on 22% for more likely. As with the Lindsay poll, the sample was very large: 1,160.
$5 Billion Dollar NBN Budget Blow Out
OOPS heres the link this time:
http://www.afr.com/p/technology/contractor_demands_cause_billion_2mtA80DzIsfpCsngike2aI
Mick77 – I don’t want to to sound prissy but are you human??
@Sean/1201
Already been refuted by NBNCo.
I feel better now.
Mick – 4th red. Good time to hit me up for a bet!
“Mr Albanese told Lateline this week that Mr Turnbull’s $94 billion figure had been ”plucked out of a Coco Pops packet”.
”This is an absolute nonsense with no basis in fact,” he said. ”And indeed, the joint parliamentary committee, of which Malcolm is a member, did consider this and found there was no basis in fact.”
In fact the committee made no such finding. Mr Albanese’s office says he misspoke.”
Ouch!
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/fact-checker/will-the-nbn-cost-94-billion-20130816-2s154.html#ixzz2c83e0Xv1
Sean Tisme
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 8:56 pm | Permalink
$5 Billion Dollar NBN Budget Blow Out
———————————————————–
intelligent people know that the NBN is an investment and that when sold on completion the Govt will a return on that investment
Simon Baker@1172
Of course if the party membership gets 50% of the say in electing the leader, I doubt Shorten or any other genius behind the events of June 2010 would score at all well. Karma. 👿
Currently you can get 40/1 odds on Labor picking up six LNP seats and 20/1 for five seats.
That is almost worth a small wager.
[@Sean/1195
That’s incorrect.]
Only a few weeks ago NBN’s largest contractor called Syntheo abandoned working for the NBN because they couldn’t afford to pay their contractors for the rates NBN were paying.
Now we have a story in the AFR which says NBN costs blow out $5 Billion because an increase in contractor costs… and here you are, gullible as ever saying “ohh no no… NBN denies it!”
FFS… Wake up and smell the reality
@Mod Lib/1205
That is because PolitcalFact are including everything including Revenue.
@Sean/1209
Yes, It’s call the private sector, the one that Coalition Party really likes to deal with ‘free market’ etc.
Sean Tisme
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 8:58 pm | Permalink
$5 Billion Dollar NBN Budget Blow Out
———————————————————only the Liberals want to keep using 19th century technology – copper is sooo old fashioned.
Optic fibre is not just a fashion its advancement
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-16/legal-experts-predict-court-challenge-to-coalition-asylum-seek/4893210
Even Morrison admitsthis is going to the High Court, where much of it’ll get the chop.
Sorry guys, lets go back to 101: we have a thing called “the rule of law”. Its designed to prevent arbitrary imprisonment without due process.
Lemme bust it down for you: Parliament makes law – Courts decide its aplication to a particular individual. You cant pass laws to abolish the rule of law: thats unconstitutional. It has been so since the 12th century, King John and Magna Carta.
So step off!
If anyone think Abbott’s gaffes will shift any votes, I think they are mistaken. Abbott has said those stupid kind of things many times. The gaffes tell us nothing new about him; they just confirm what we already know and it appears most people don’t care.
leftye
{Mick – 4th red. Good time to hit me up for a bet!]
Don’t tell me you were already inebriated this arvo when we established todays bet, with the winner scoring a ticket to Gillard’s champagne filled election night party? It’ll be the happiest place in Oz.
[And better than the carbon tax which has so far cost money because of all the prior compensation.]
Yeah but the carbon tax was supposed to be about reducing consumption, not raising revenue.
Will’m, the occasional journo has commented that phone (land-line) polling may be underrepresenting the views of the young who have only mobiles. Has anyone tried to estimate by how much? And at the other end of the spectrum, I’ll bet the polls are underestimating Katter’s support – none of them ever seem to get a proper sample of the country people. I’m tipping KAP to win anything from 3 to 7 seats the other side of the Divide and one for Queensland in the Senate!
Carey 1215 🙂
Mikehillard
[Mick77 – I don’t want to to sound prissy but are you human??]
What’s your problem Mike?
Dio:
Exactly. All Abbott’s 20 years in parliament have been characterised by stupid, or offensive remarks.
It seems voters are determined to eject Labor from office even if it means having to have Abbott as PM.
The Faceless Men of the Liberal Party
http://wp.me/pC95R-oL
never forget it was Howard and his media flunkies that gave us the Cronulla Riots
[Gillard’s champagne filled election night party?]
She doesn’t strike me as the vengefull, vindictive person we know her successor is, so I can’t see that Labor going into opposition will cause her any glee whatsoever.
Nah we’re good for that one Mick. 60 is the mark.
I reckon youre going to lose it too.
Mick77 – I thought you might be a robot with a chip.
If YOU’RE just a genuine person that’s great, no problem for me.
Lot of doom and gloom about punters – but NO PROPER POLLS.
Last one I saw was Essential 51-49 on Tuesday.
Ruawake 1160
Where can you find evidence for the 389 figure?
The ABC seems to have missed that
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-15/tony-abbott-pacific-solution-outcome/4889778
I heard a few rumors tonight.
One is that the AFL has given Hird two options.
1. He is suspended from involvement in any AFL club for 5 years
OR
2. He has to coach Melbourne next year.
Abbott defended a convicted paedophile before defending innocent children – no scandal.
‘Fess
[Gillard’s champagne filled election night party?
… I can’t see that Labor going into opposition will cause her any glee whatsoever.]
It’s called schadenfreude, one of humanity’s great emotions. She’s just gonna love watching Kev go down with the ship, wouldn’t you in her shoes?
Diogenes
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 9:16 pm | Permalink
I heard a few rumors tonight.
One is that the AFL has given Hird two options.
1. He is suspended from involvement in any AFL club for 5 years
OR
2. He has to coach Melbourne next year.
————————————————
I’d take the suspension
[Will’m, the occasional journo has commented that phone (land-line) polling may be underrepresenting the views of the young who have only mobiles. Has anyone tried to estimate by how much?]
Past polling and election results have shown most times that the polls have underestimated the Coalitions vote.
Of course anyone who knows anything about polling and doesn’t keep bringing up the mobile phone rubbish knows that the pollsters ask for your age when doing the polling so they can fill their quota for the different age groups meaning high mobile phone usage by younger people is irrelevent.
The other rumor from a well-placed source is that the reason Evans got the boot from Essendon is that the board thought he was too nice and working too much with the AFL and Demetriou.
The guy they replaced him with, ex Toll boss Paul Little, is much more aggressive and litigious and will fight the AFL hard.
[She’s just gonna love watching Kev go down with the ship, wouldn’t you in her shoes?]
I think she’s more likely to be thinking about those Labor MPs who might have made great front benchers who may well end their political careers in opposition.
Dio:
Are your rumours kosher, or are you just kidding around?
Mikehillard
[Mick77 – I thought you might be a robot with a chip.
If YOU’RE just a genuine person that’s great, no problem for me.]
And if I’m not, what have you got against robots? You’re not an antirobotist are you?
People who quote the 40% figure rely on wikileaks
The Australian Parliamentary Library
A total of 1637 people had been detained in the Nauru and Manus facilities. Of these, 1153 (70 per cent) were ultimately resettled in Australia or other countries. Of those who were resettled 705 (around 61 per cent) were resettled in Australia.
Palmer, Windsor and Slipper all have dirt on Abbott
Will any cough up?
It is Labor’s only hope
Mick77@1229 – what is your issue? Fran has done the whole Schadenfreude thing way back.
Do you remember suggesting I snog Fran or have you forgotten that?
If I didn’t have more respect for this blog I would be peeing on you’re head.
Or dio, 3 he has to join the liberal party
The Australian Parliamentary Library
A total of 1637 people had been detained in the Nauru and Manus facilities. Of these, 1153 (70 per cent) were ultimately resettled in Australia or other countries. Of those who were resettled 705 (around 61 per cent) were resettled in Australia.
—————————————————
I’m not sure how this happened because not boats arrived – apparently thee people walked
Quick question….
Is there an election on?
It’s dead quiet out there around the traps and no Labor buzz….
It’s called schadenfreude, one of humanity’s great emotions. She’s just gonna love watching Kev go down with the ship, wouldn’t you in her shoes?
why would she? She is not a right wing fuck wit.
‘Fess
[I think she’s more likely to be thinking about those Labor MPs who might have made great front benchers who may well end their political careers in opposition.]
Oh, of course, only pure altruistic thoughts from our Julia. Anyway it was just a thought bubble but I would really love to be a fly on the wall as the results come in and Julia & Tim toast Rudd’s demise. To be sure, that’s what the real Julia will be doing, as she should. She had the opportunity to put a stake through his heart (not my words but those of her Labor colleagues) early on and is still kicking herself that she made him FM and not Ambassador to Egypt or Iceland or similar. Would have been better in hindsight to risk a by-election in Griffith.
[Will’m, the occasional journo has commented that phone (land-line) polling may be underrepresenting the views of the young who have only mobiles. Has anyone tried to estimate by how much?]
Poll responses are weighted to ensure that each age cohort is proportionally represented in the overall result. So the issue is not that young people are being missed. The issues are that a) it might be a certain type of young person being missed – the type not living with their older, landline-owning parents maybe; and b) the youth vote is being extrapolated from a small number of respondents with a high margin of error. There appears not to be any evidence to suggest that A is making polls more unreliable. But I don’t think there can be any doubt that B has introduced a tendency to make them more erratic.
Liberal would everyone to believe otherwise but they agreed to the closing down of the Pacific Solution in a bi-partisan agreement in December 2008
2006 – John Howard failed to get FTTN off the ground:
http://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/accc-perplexed-by-telstra-decision-on-fibre-to-the-node-investment
Sorry. Frustration at the lowering of the quality of posts recently
mikeh
[Do you remember suggesting I snog Fran or have you forgotten that?]
What were the circumstances in which I suggested this .. were you two agreeing on everything?
Keyman
[It’s called schadenfreude, one of humanity’s great emotions. She’s just gonna love watching Kev go down with the ship, wouldn’t you in her shoes?
why would she? ..]
Are you for real?
AA. The business [for you godless sh#ts] regarding Nestor proves that Rasputin is totally not right for PM. Dead cats aside,what’s the counts game? I’m in, I’m out. Oh FFS look at me!
fess
[Are your rumours kosher, or are you just kidding around?]
The first ones a joke but the second is deadly serious. Essendon are going to fight hard and dirty.