No sign yet of a sample size (UPDATE: It turns out to be a modest 505, with a margin of error approaching 4.5%), but The Australian reports a weekend Newspoll survey of the neighbouring Labor marginals of Robertson and Dobell on the New South Wales central coast points to a combined swing to the Liberals of 7%, more than enough to account for the respective margins of 1.0% and 5.1%. On the primary vote, Labor is on 35% (compared with 43.0% at the 2010 election) and the Coalition is on 50% (41.9%). No detail is provided for other parties and candidates, but evidently Craig Thomson is unlikely to trouble the scoreboard much in his bid to retain Dobell as an independent (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens at 8%, compared with 8.8% in 2010, and others at 7%, compared with 6.3%). On two-party preferred, the Coalition leads 54-46 (53.0-47.0 to Labor in 2010).
The poll also finds the leaders’ personal ratings to be markedly different than the rest of the country, with Kevin Rudd on 39% approval and 54% disapproval compared with 53% and 41% for Tony Abbott, and Abbott leading 47-41 on preferred prime minister. In the national survey conducted on the weekend, Rudd was on 39% and 48% disapproval comapred with 38% and 52% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 46-37 as preferred prime minister.
UPDATE: Now newcomer automated pollster shows a diabolical result for Labor in Lindsay, conducted on Tuesday night from a big sample of 1038. Liberal candidate Fiona Scott’s primary vote is put at no less than 60%, up 17% on 2010, with Labor member David Bradbury on 32%, down 13%. The Guardian quotes the pollster saying a question about how respondents voted in 2010 aligned with the actual result – I will assume this took into account the tendency of poll respondents to over-report having voted for the winner. I am a little more puzzled by the claimed margin of error of 3.7%, which should be more like 3% given the published sample size.
UPDATE 2: Now the Financial Review has a JWS Research automated poll of 568 respondents in Forde with remarkable figures on every front: LNP member Bert van Manen leading Peter Beattie 54% to 33% on the primary vote and 60-40 on two-party preferred, for a swing of 8.4%. As low as van Manen’s national profile may be, the poll gives him a 49% approval rating against 19% disapproval, with Peter Beattie on 35% and 51%. Kevin Rudd’s net approval rating is minus 18% against minus 1% for Tony Abbott. This is one of seven electorate-level JWS Research polls for which results will appear in tomorrow’s Financial Review.
UPDATE 3: Another automated phone poll for Forde, this time from Lonergan in The Guardian, and it’s just as bad for Labor as the JWS Research result. Bert van Manen leads 56% to 34% on the primary vote, with the Greens at just 4% compared with 12% at the 2010 election. While no two-party preferred figure is provided, it would obviously be very similar to JWS Research’s 60-40. The poll has 40% saying Peter Beattie has made them less likely to vote Labor against on 22% for more likely. As with the Lindsay poll, the sample was very large: 1,160.
https://twitter.com/MalcolmFraser12/status/368117347732557824
outside left
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 9:37 pm | Permalink
AA. The business [for you godless sh#ts] regarding Nestor proves that Rasputin is totally not right for PM. Dead cats aside,what’s the counts game? I’m in, I’m out. Oh FFS look at me!
——————————————————
you need to change your medication
Kevin Rudd’s ad on Australia’s debt credit rating checks out by ABC verdict: This advertisement is accurate http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-14/kevin-rudd-debt-ad-check/4866236 …
Abbott has been lying – is that still or just again
With Turnbull committing to honouring NBN contracts for FTTH
in Tasmania you can pretty much put all 5 Tasmanian seats in the coalition column. That’s all it’l take to move a whole swag of votes. I reckon even the tory airhead in my electorate (Franklin) will get in.
@Rosemour or Less/1254
Actually that’s incorrect.
http://www.thecourier.com.au/story/1709815/liberal-tweak-to-stop-tassies-nbn/?cs=2452
AA
So the ALPs killer follow up ad will explain in plain language how Abbott has been making stuff up that just isn’t true.
Right?
Or will they just hope the fact checking clean bill of health will filter through to the punters.
Thanks Zoid, didn’t get the detail from the ABC down here.
Move four seats back to the red column…..well maybe not…
That AFR article doesn’t past the smell test if its claiming that small changes to the cables themselves could make up a $5B shortfall.
Its more beat up.
[People who quote the 40% figure rely on wikileaks
The Australian Parliamentary Library
A total of 1637 people had been detained in the Nauru and Manus facilities. Of these, 1153 (70 per cent) were ultimately resettled in Australia or other countries. Of those who were resettled 705 (around 61 per cent) were resettled in Australia.]
FFS… Are you purposely being stupid? You brought this crap up a few weeks ago and you got pulled up on it and now you are spouting the same crap again.
Look very very carefully at the words:
“Of these, 1153 (70 per cent) were ultimately resettled in Australia OR other countries”
“Of THOSE who were RESETTLED 705 (around 61 per cent) were resettled in Australia.]”
Now what is 61% of 70%?? And there is your answer 42.7%
Now please stop with the crap, only around 42% of people sent to the Pacific Solution ended up in Australia.
are we waiting for a poll?
@Sean/1259
The reading to me sounds like 1153 = 70%.
Sean,
The idiocy of this particular side show is that refugees being given permanent residency in NZ is effectively the same as giving them PR in Australia and you know why.
And however much you spin, the big lie is the Liberals telling us that zero people came to Australia.
WRONG
australian journalists are not scrubbing up on the whole – and they are younger than ever – 30 average? the tv ratings factor?
is it an impression that america still has senior older =60 journalists? have they been made redundant here?
Here Sean, sit on this and spin…
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/8/16/technology/nbn-co-refutes-5-billion-blowout-claims?google_editors_picks=true
International pressure does count.
@BBCWorld: Top Chinese official says practice of taking executed prisoners’ organs for transplant use will stop from November http://t.co/KKal7KvxAw
Probably not Geoffrey re a poll.
“@AntonyGreenABC: Record number of Senate cands in every state, NSW 110, VIC 97, QLD 82, WA 62, SA 73, TAS 54, ACT 27 NT 24”
I reckon there should be a limit of 8 candidates* in any electorate.
There should also be a minimum of 2 candidates but not sure how to enforce that
There should also be a minimum number of signatures to get on at all, even if you are in the top 8
Those with the most signatures who get into the top 8 get a spot on the ballot, otherwise “tough”.
(* this number was picked out of the air, like treasury estimates)
In the Senate it should be 8 times the number of Senate vacancies.
Why?
I dunno, I like the symmetry, thats all.
@guytaur/1267
That’s pretty large amount for NSW, VIC, QLD, WA, SA.
Its no wonder the AEC is supplying magnifying glasses for ballots.
[guytaur
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 10:16 pm | PERMALINK
“@AntonyGreenABC: Record number of Senate cands in every state, NSW 110, VIC 97, QLD 82, WA 62, SA 73, TAS 54, ACT 27 NT 24”]
Are there even 54 people living in Tasmania? That is just ridiculous 🙂
Remember when the tablecloth ballot was a rare thing. 73 bloody candidates here! (More elsewhere). I truly do understand why most voters just vote above the line.
@guytaur
Some rather massive ballot papers coming to a poling booth near you.
I won’t be putting in 82 numbers
Mod Lib,
I’d like to see a reduction in the number of Senators in Parliament.
I mean why does Tassie as an example have 6 Senate seats but only 5 lower house seats?
What a joke and what are we paying these senators for anyway? QLD doesn’t have a senate and the wheels haven’t fallen off.
wasn’t nielsen mid week like friday during campaign and reachtel due?
I think the NSW is going to have 6 point font size. i.e. Terms and conditions style legal size. Thus the magnifying glasses needed.
I think someone may agree with you Sean on the QLD wheels 🙂
[are we waiting for a poll?]
Presumably we’ll get rest of this JWS Research marginals poll from the Financial Review.
Is there somewhere I can go to to see the layout of the NSW Senate paper and which Parties/individuals are in which columns?
[I mean why does Tassie as an example have 6 Senate seats but only 5 lower house seats?
What a joke and what are we paying these senators for anyway? QLD doesn’t have a senate and the wheels haven’t fallen off.]
This is a joke right, I mean is he having a laugh…
Well, I suppose it’s a good thing that so many people are participating in the democratic process.
Mod Lib@1268
Typical Mod, just making shit up.
You know damn well Treasury Estimates are not just picked out of the air but are the best available based on the best data available.
I know I’m laughing my head off.
davidwh what I’d like to see is being able to vote above the line but instead of just putting a 1 there, putting a 1 up to however many columns there are.
Someone correct me if this is already possible.
Sean should read the constitution some time.
Sorry, Sean should get his party handlers to read the constitution for him some time.
Good idea Cud.
[Typical Mod, just making shit up.
You know damn well Treasury Estimates are not just picked out of the air but are the best available based on the best data available.]
You obviously tolerate failure better than me bemused! :devil:
Jus watched The Drum.
I want to slash my wrists now.
Abbott’s win next month will be bigger than Howard’s in ’96.
No question.
@Rosemour or Less/1290
Drum, Smum.
I can assist with the problem of having too many Senators because they need to represent the States in the Federal Parliament…
Abolish states.
I think I might have to plan my Senate vote in advance before I go in and have the numbers printed out.
I don’t care if there’s a thousand candidates. I refuse to vote above the line. Never have, never will.
mod lib
the best thing said here for some time … get rid of those ruler lines on the continent and replace them with ???
Carey Moore@1287
Or administer a copy of the Constitution as a suppository of knowledge. 😛
Carey I’m thinking the same
But I would like to vote above the line with an ordered sequence of however many columns there are.
[I want to slash my wrists now.]
Use really hot water and drink a bottle whisky, it should numb the pain 😆
Considering the Senate is proportionally elected, it really doesn’t matter about the distribution, you’ll still get, more or less, the same divide.
[But I would like to vote above the line with an ordered sequence of however many columns there are.]
I agree.
Mod Lib@1289
Thank you Mod for yet again proving your ignorance.
Forecasting is an inexact science and an ‘accurate estimate’ is an oxymoron.