No sign yet of a sample size (UPDATE: It turns out to be a modest 505, with a margin of error approaching 4.5%), but The Australian reports a weekend Newspoll survey of the neighbouring Labor marginals of Robertson and Dobell on the New South Wales central coast points to a combined swing to the Liberals of 7%, more than enough to account for the respective margins of 1.0% and 5.1%. On the primary vote, Labor is on 35% (compared with 43.0% at the 2010 election) and the Coalition is on 50% (41.9%). No detail is provided for other parties and candidates, but evidently Craig Thomson is unlikely to trouble the scoreboard much in his bid to retain Dobell as an independent (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens at 8%, compared with 8.8% in 2010, and others at 7%, compared with 6.3%). On two-party preferred, the Coalition leads 54-46 (53.0-47.0 to Labor in 2010).
The poll also finds the leaders’ personal ratings to be markedly different than the rest of the country, with Kevin Rudd on 39% approval and 54% disapproval compared with 53% and 41% for Tony Abbott, and Abbott leading 47-41 on preferred prime minister. In the national survey conducted on the weekend, Rudd was on 39% and 48% disapproval comapred with 38% and 52% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 46-37 as preferred prime minister.
UPDATE: Now newcomer automated pollster shows a diabolical result for Labor in Lindsay, conducted on Tuesday night from a big sample of 1038. Liberal candidate Fiona Scott’s primary vote is put at no less than 60%, up 17% on 2010, with Labor member David Bradbury on 32%, down 13%. The Guardian quotes the pollster saying a question about how respondents voted in 2010 aligned with the actual result – I will assume this took into account the tendency of poll respondents to over-report having voted for the winner. I am a little more puzzled by the claimed margin of error of 3.7%, which should be more like 3% given the published sample size.
UPDATE 2: Now the Financial Review has a JWS Research automated poll of 568 respondents in Forde with remarkable figures on every front: LNP member Bert van Manen leading Peter Beattie 54% to 33% on the primary vote and 60-40 on two-party preferred, for a swing of 8.4%. As low as van Manen’s national profile may be, the poll gives him a 49% approval rating against 19% disapproval, with Peter Beattie on 35% and 51%. Kevin Rudd’s net approval rating is minus 18% against minus 1% for Tony Abbott. This is one of seven electorate-level JWS Research polls for which results will appear in tomorrow’s Financial Review.
UPDATE 3: Another automated phone poll for Forde, this time from Lonergan in The Guardian, and it’s just as bad for Labor as the JWS Research result. Bert van Manen leads 56% to 34% on the primary vote, with the Greens at just 4% compared with 12% at the 2010 election. While no two-party preferred figure is provided, it would obviously be very similar to JWS Research’s 60-40. The poll has 40% saying Peter Beattie has made them less likely to vote Labor against on 22% for more likely. As with the Lindsay poll, the sample was very large: 1,160.
[geoffrey
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 10:33 pm | PERMALINK
mod lib
the best thing said here for some time … get rid of those ruler lines on the continent and replace them with ???]
High speed rail?
I dunno, replace with nothing would be better with what we have now….
I’m not numbering below the line.
Short cut to putting them last is now a serious possibility by voting Monkey.
Bloody Greens, it’s all their fault 😉
drum??? more talk fest. i assume they went hard on abbott
Zoid
No doubt.
But, Abbott’s win will be bigger than Howard’s in 96.
No question.
The wheels have fallen off the Ruddmoile before the cart got out of the garage. It’s pathetic. It’s like political karaoke. Embarrassing to watch.
[Forecasting is an inexact science and an ‘accurate estimate’ is an oxymoron.]
It certainly is when the ALP is in power! LOL 🙂
Carey Moore@1299
The only problem I see with that is the ‘un-grouped’ candidates. You need to order them somehow.
Otherwise I agree.
@Rosemour or Less/1304
Oh dear. You may as well do what Bligh did up here in QLD.
Use the white flag.
This is why we need online voting would make things much easier and it means I don’t have to get out of bed to vote
Federalism actually works in a big country like Australia as the interests of one part of the continent is often at odds with another part. Not everywhere in Australia is Sydney.
If anything, I’d divide them and make some of them smaller, so their management can be focused (no, I would not devolve it to local governments – we’re not Europe).
bemused
To fix that you have an ungrouped section below the line in a separate section so you vote above the line by column but below for ungrouped and of course the ungrouped id part of the general below the line
@Mod Lib/1305
Yeah I agree, it’s just a pitty that the Coalition Party moved of their forecasting to the private debt, which is why it at 3.5 trillion.
Mod Lib@1305
Oh I see, so according to Mod, Treasury sabotage ALP Governments by giving bogus estimates.
They are after all the same public servants that serve Liberal Govts.
You get ever more stupid Mod.
@Sean/1308
Unless the AEC website continues to crash as well as your broadband modem continues to reset on failing copper.
Thanks Rosemore
[The wheels have fallen off the Ruddmoile before the cart got out of the garage.]
Didn’t see The Drum but you’ve made my night. This was my view from before he was even reinstated … popular from afar, a Dudd from close-up. His own colleagues hate his guts and think he’s abominable so why would the electorate buy the obvious fraud. Abbott has become the “devil we know” because they’re no stable incumbent. Rudd could have saved furniture if he had gone quickly to polls but he believed in himself and didn’t realise it was just a sugar/novelty bounce. Big mistake!
mod lib
we need ‘regions’ … how many and how defined is the art … two levels only – abolish present local and states. basis for participatory democracy. best check on corruption. and stop demagogues at the top (of which we have abundant example(s) now)
bemused
I know of some conspiracy theorists who think that is exactly what Treasury does. 😆
We could have a continuous online vote. It stays up there and you can change it whenever you want.
[bemused
…..
Oh I see, so according to Mod, Treasury sabotage ALP Governments by giving bogus estimates.]
Treasury gives the government estimates of revenue.
The Coalition is cautious and doesn’t spend it all (builds in a surplus)
The ALP is dumb and goes ahead and spends every cent (then the deficit blows out)
Spot the difference?
[This is why we need online voting would make things much easier and it means I don’t have to get out of bed to vote]
Finding employment would motivate you to get out of your bed and get you into a constructive routine.
It’d pull pollsters out of business too :D.
I can’t figure out what ML is talking about when he says high speed rail.
*put
@Mod Lib/1318
No difference, the goverment debt isn’t the issue, it’s private debt.
guytaur@1310
Might work, but would tend to confuse some people.
Craig Thomson on Lateline now
Seriously though, if getting to a polling place is a problem, you can always postal vote and can apply for one online:
http://www.aec.gov.au/election/pva/
Although I do not condone doing it out of laziness.
We still haven’t seen any of the major polls come up with a result indicating either a thrashing or an irreversible situation. If Newspoll or Nielsen get to 54/46 and Labor below 35% then it may be time to throw in the towel. At 52/48 Labor still have skin in the game.
[DisplayName
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 10:45 pm | PERMALINK
It’d pull pollsters out of business too]
Pollsters will never be out of business…….how can I put this.
Which of the following best describes your views on pollsters;
1. They should be blown up
2. They should be ignored
3. They should be smiled at politely
4. They should be made Prime Minister
Mod, treasury underestimated prior to the GFC and overestimated after.
chud
i asked what would divide continent constitutionally if states abolished. he said high speed rail for what of any other thought – transportation over governance however
davidwh
agreed. we dont trust journalists esp the young trying to impress breed, nor msm generally. even if they are shaping campaign. but agreed. there is no hard evidence, and still a week or more before irreversible … bad news, and good news, still to come … if rudd too good to believe, then what is abbott?
Mod Lib@1318
I spot your bogus difference.
The real difference is that Howard was fortunate to be in government when Treasury estimates of income were frequently on the low side due to windfall income.
[DisplayName
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 10:50 pm | PERMALINK
Mod, treasury underestimated prior to the GFC and overestimated after.]
And Howard didnt spend it all before and Rudd/Gillard/Rudd spent every cent even though revenue estimates were heroic leaps from previous experience.
The Liberal party said they were heroic at the time and they were right and the ALP was wrong.
Mod, if there was a continuous online vote, what would pollsters do?
(1) is very tempting, but there’d be no PB, (2) would be like pretending I don’t have an addiction to bouncy graphs, so I’d go for (3), probably.
[The real difference is that Howard was fortunate to be in government when Treasury estimates of income were frequently on the low side due to windfall income.]
You get luckier the harder you work bemused :devil: !
@Mod Lib/1333
Howard didn’t have a GFC.
See DN?
Its infectious….
How long does the GFC work as an excuse?
I have a sneaking suspicion this one is going to vanish miraculously on 7th Sep 2013 at approximately 8:30pm.
Hehe 🙂
do you mean despair sets in on day abbott revives AS – you’re joking? journalists feed on their own tired cynicism. what happened to to pursuit of policy and facts during elections. the DT page 5 of rudd today was putrid. i feel sorry for him actually and admire at moment. even he could not have guessed msm ferocity
Jeez what’s hard about voting? If you early vote there are no queues.
Mod Lib@1335
Well done Mod! Your first sensible comment all evening.
You now admit Howard and Costello were just lucky. 👿
@Mod Lib/1338
So like a typical liberal, you don’t believe a GFC?
I’ve got a great idea: let’s wait for some actual polls.
@davidwh
Agree completely. I would take some of these marginal seat polls, particularly by organisations, with a massive grain of salt until I actually see runs on the board from them. But yes, if national polls blow out to anything around 54-46 then I don’t see any coming back. That has not happened, I’m sure we’ll see some more poling over the weekend.
The real difference has been business and consumer confidence. A key reason for the difference was the GFC naturally however this has been made worse by political uncertainty and just some really dumb political rhetoric and decisions. Both majors have to take responsibility for the situation we are in.
The Lateline debate
Bramdis v Marles
mod lib
he he? whence the complacency? I hate complacency, smugness, arrogance, revenge, assertiveness, bombast, crude thinking, rhetorical violence, inaccuracy, exaggeration
Reachtel
Bennelong 65-35 to Liberal
McMahon 53-47 to Liberal
Kingsford Smith 52-48 to Liberal
Blaxland 52-48 to Labor
Sample size is 600 per seat
you must be ace at scrabble
YIKES JJ
DOUBLE YIKES!!!!