Before I dive into today’s glut of electorate-level polling and the picture of unmitigated disaster it paints for Labor, mention should be made of today’s declaration of candidates and determination of ballot paper ordering. I’ve finished labouring through the chore of uploading the candidate lists to my election guide, in the course of which I was unavoidably struck by one salient fact: there are far too many candidates at this election. The total comes in at 1188 for the House of Representatives and 529 for the Senate.
The former number is solidly clear of a previous record of 1109 in 1998, amounting to nearly half an extra candidate per electorate, and well clear of the 849 in 2010, a relatively low number thought to have resulted from the election being called three months ahead of time. The Senate number is still more unprecedented, blowing the lid off the previous record of 367 candidates. Remarkably – suspiciously, even – this comes despite a doubling of nomination deposits to $1000 for House of Representatives candidates and $2000 for Senate candidates.
Some might consider a greater array of candidates a boon for democracy, but in my view that’s entirely negated by the obstacle posed to the act of voting, at least under our present system. This is starkly illustrated by the metre-long Senate ballot papers that voters in the larger states will be required to grapple with on September 7, and the magnifying glasses that will be supplied in polling booths to assist in reading the small print crammed on to them. That will no doubt have all but the tiniest handful of voters opting for the above the line option, exacerbating one of the least attractive features of our system – the mass transfer of votes as dictated by preference deals.
As for the lower house, an analysis by the Australian Electoral Commission indicates that each extra candidate causes a 0.2% increase in the informal vote. If partisan advantage is what matters to you, it’s likely that this makes a large number of candidates disadvantageous to Labor. Labor’s surprise defeat in Greenway at the 2004 election may well have been influenced by an 11.8% informal vote, which was in turn influenced by what I believe to have been a then record (at a general election at least) 14 candidates. This time around there are 12 candidates in Corangamite, Deakin and Mallee, 13 in Bendigo and McMillan, and 16 in Melbourne. Notably, all these electorates are in Victoria, which seems to have the largest number of organised micro-parties – perhaps having been inspired by the example of Family First and the Democratic Labour Party in winning Senate seats over the course of the past decade.
So, to these opinion polls. There are 14 automated phone polls in all from three different agencies, with swings ranging from 0% to 15% and averaging 8%. This is enormously out of kilter with the national polling that was coming through before we hit a dry spell at the start of the week, which suggested a swing of more like 2%. So one might variously hypothesise that there has been a huge shift to the Coalition this week; that the polls have targeted areas where Labor is doing particularly badly; that there may have been something about these polls to bias them towards the Coalition, through some combination of their being automated, mid-week and electorate-level polls; that the national polls have been heavily biased to Labor and the automated polls have shown them up. The latter at least I do not think terribly likely, the truth probably involving some combination of the first three.
We have also had more conventional phone poll results from Newspoll, conducted from Monday to Thursday from samples of 504 each, which oddly target Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor’s seats of Lyne and New England. These respectively have the Nationals ahead 59-41 and 66-34, which if anything suggest swings to Labor. The primary votes from Lyne are 26% for Labor, 51% for the Coalition and 7% for the Greens, while from New England it’s 24%, 53% and 5%.
Running through the automated polls:
• Lonergan and JWS Research have both targeted Forde and Lindsay, with very similar results in each case. In Forde, the JWS Research poll of 568 respondents has Liberal National Party member Bert van Manen leading Peter Beattie 54% to 33% on the primary vote and 60-40 on two-party preferred, for a swing of 8.4%. The Lonergan poll, for which The Guardian offers great detail, covered 1160 respondents and showed van Manen’s lead at 56% to 34% and the Greens at just 4%, compared with 12% at the 2010 election. While no two-party preferred figure is provided, it would obviously be very similar to JWS Research’s 60-40. As low as van Manen’s national profile may be, JWS Research gives him a 49% approval rating against 19% disapproval, with Peter Beattie on 35% and 51%. Kevin Rudd’s net approval rating is minus 18% against minus 1% for Tony Abbott. The Lonergan poll has 40% saying Peter Beattie has made them less likely to vote Labor against on 22% for more likely.
• Longergan’s Lindsay poll, conducted on Tuesday night from a sample of 1038, has Liberal candidate Fiona Scott’s primary vote at no less than 60%, up 17% on 2010, with Labor member David Bradbury on 32%, down 13%. The Guardian quotes the pollster saying a question about how respondents voted in 2010 aligned with the actual result – I will assume this took into account the tendency of poll respondents to over-report having voted for the winner. I am a little more puzzled by the claimed margin of error of 3.7%, which should be more like 3% given the published sample size (UPDATE: It transpires that this is because Lonergan has, unusually, done the right thing – calculate an effective margin of error that accounts for the fact that the sample is weighted, and that cohorts within it have been extrapolated from sub-par samples). The JWS Research result has the primary votes at 57% for Liberal and 35% for Labor, with two-party preferred at 60.7-39.3.
• ReachTEL has four polls with samples of around 600 apiece, which have the Liberals leading 65-35 in Bennelong (a swing of about 12%) and 53-47 in McMahon (11%) and 52-48 in Kingsford Smith (7%), with Labor hanging on by 52-48 in Blaxland (10%).
• The other Financial Review/JWS Research results show the Coalition ahead in Brisbane (54.1-45.9 from primaries of 50% LNP, 36% Labor), Macquarie (55.1-44.9, 51% Liberal, 35% Labor), Corangamite (53.3-46.7, 48% Liberal, 36% Labor), Aston (63.4-36.6, Liberal 59%, Labor 29%), and Banks (52.8-47.2, Liberal 50%, Labor 43%). The one ray of sunlight for Labor is their 51-49 lead in Greenway, from primaries of 46% for Liberal and 44% for Labor. A full graphic of the JWS Research results is available from GhostWhoVotes, including some diverting results on personal approval. Bert van Manen in Forde and Alan Tudge in Aston appear to rate as very popular local members, while David Bradbury in Lindsay and Darren Cheeseman in Corangamite do not. And Fiona Scott in Lindsay, fresh from the publicity bestowed upon her by Tony Abbott, is easily the highest rating of the challengers.
Or plumbs and prunes?
Johnny Button @873
“This was also on Twitter…have I missed something?
☵ Z☰N Digital ® ☲ @z3n_digital The witness alleges a person had a long-term affair with Mr Pyne but was jilted when Mr Pyne met & began an affair with James Ashby #auspol”
Digital Zen is a totally f–ked up paid troll who has been banned from many forums for making shit up. I suspect he has a major personality disorder and is probably a disgruntled pubic servant who got the shaft by a nasty conservative state government. He will make up anything and say anything to make get his Tweets re-tweeted. Next he will concoct a witness that has been present when Abbott sexually pleasured a hamster while screaming out “sex appeal”.
Poor Morpheus.
@carey
Agree re Rudd hitting the right note, even if personally I have many issues with the announcement. It wil go down very well here in South Australia, especially in areas where many people either rely on the car industry directly or the components industry. Something else too, it was almost as if Rudd knew he was on a winner today, because I felt like I was listening to the old Rudd, not the very flat version we’ve seen throughout the campaign.
rummel @984 The ALP are clearly misogynistic – look what they did to their first ever Female PM.
[So let me get this right. You are saying that when pollsters ring people for a poll they throw in some negative questions or remarks about the Government and then ask them who they intend to vote for. Is that a fair summation?
—————————–
yes
That what happen when i used to get polled by newspoll]
MB, I normally suffer your nonsense in silence, but this is just flat out wrong.
Morpheus
You say the nicest things about people.
[That is good news about the car industry announcement. Hopefully it isn’t just a one-off.]
How long until the car industry next have their begging bowl out? $500 million now – how much next time? The car industry is basically on taxpayer funded life support limping on from one year to the next. The story over the last 40 years has not been pretty – in 1974 the market was considered too small for four manufacturers when Leyland went under – then it got to five when Toyota and Nissan entered. Nissan folded as five was too many, Mitsubishi folded when four was too many again, Ford gave gone. When will taxpayer dollar tap be turned off. Thank goodness we do don’t have a shipbuilding industry any more or we would sending hundreds of millions into that.
Supppose its a lot like Abbott visiting a factory and having photo shots with the very same people he wants to screw over by reducing their working conditions, removing penalty rates etc
He will screw the car manufacturing industry and other manufacturing industries will follow
[rummel @984 The ALP are clearly misogynistic – look what they did to their first ever Female PM.]
What, made her, y’know, the first ever female PM, and stood by her amid two years of some of the most disastrous opinion polling ever recorded?
MB, I normally suffer your nonsense in silence, but this is just flat out wrong.
——————
William , im sorry but it isnt .
i dont care what newspoll does now , but when they were ringing me i have stated this a few times in the past years , i never got the chance to tell them who i would vote for because the yhung up when i took acception to the way they were polling
You are fired up tonight William.
@davidwh/1012
Is the the usual suspects are out.
http://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/nick-feik/2013/08/14/1376438019/13-news-corp-headlines-translated#.Ug8c49rXwW4.twitte\
please read
————————————————————–
the word of mouth will counter the above story don’t be afraid to discuss politics pick your topic to suit the person pensions or education always in clude the nbn
my parents gen. said shhhhhh about politics not its time too shout our loud about the lnp the above story don’t sit mute
get and talk,, I talk to perfect strangers its not hard a lot of people are lonely I discovered his with my letter boxing older people came out and said can I help u dear ect so then I said what I was doing and they talked
]believe me they talked about ta how how scared they are of him
some older people and some I would say on disability support said o well we vote soon, but had no idea who the candidate was
so as I went along my merry way and I did enjoy letter boxing for jane, people in business smiles I was polite and them to,,, only got one,,,i know whom I am voting for of course a lot where not home
but the sence I got it fear of abbott
MB, that explains it! The bad polling is all your fault! Labor voters are hanging up on the polling so it’s all skewed to the other side!
C’mon William – let’s not let facts get in the way of a good dig.
William Bowe when will you be making a call on the outcome ?
Peter Brent appears to be preparing the way to write off the Laboristii next week.
[i dont care what newspoll does now , but when they were ringing me i have stated this a few times in the past years , i never got the chance to tell them who i would vote for because the yhung up when i took acception to the way they were polling]
So you were not asked who you would vote for, and your affirmative answer to Haydn’s question was wrong.
[You are fired up tonight William.]
We need Psephos back. The intellectual standard here has slipped, and I’m maybe a bit cranky about it.
[C’mon William – let’s not let facts get in the way of a good dig.]
You’re alright, CC. Keep up the good work.
DisplayName
Lol
William can call me a liar all he likes , but i was the one answering the phone and it was newspoll.
Hence why i am very critical of the media driven opinion polls , for the crap i had to listen to from them
will
may we ask who u are voting for surely its fair u know whow we all vote for
[Queensland. Labor to lose Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Forde, Dawson, Flynn and Dickson, but hold Moreton, Longman and Herbert.]
Labor didn’t have Dickson or Herbert to lose or hold so we will say JWS were right on Dickson and wrong on Herbert. They did lose six of seven said to be lost. They lost Longman. So in Qld – JWS got 8/11 right
[New South Wales. Labor to lose Lindsay, Bennelong, Macarthur and Robertson while gaining Paterson and Cowper
Labor to hold Greenway, Dobell, Page, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore and Macquarie.]
6/12 right
[Victoria. Labor to gain McEwen, La Trobe and Dunkley, but lose Corangamite.]
2/4 right
Elsewhere. Labor to gain Boothby, lose Hasluck and Swan, and hold Solomon.
2/4 right
Total: JWS were right in 18/31. More or a mixed than favouring one side or another.
[We need Psephos back. The intellectual standard here has slipped, and I’m maybe a bit cranky about it.]
Garbage in garbage out.
ESJ, I’m afraid I’m of the wishy-washy Nate Silverian probabilistic school these days where I don’t declare anything for certain. What chance do I think Labor has of winning? Next to bugger all. But not exactly bugger all.
MB perhaps they didn’t like the way you tried to poll them?
morpheus
Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 5:33 pm | Permalink
Johnny Button @873
“This was also on Twitter…have I missed something?
☵ Z☰N Digital ® ☲ @z3n_digital The witness alleges a person had a long-term affair with Mr Pyne but was jilted when Mr Pyne met & began an affair with James Ashby #auspol”
Digital Zen is a totally f–ked up paid troll who has been banned from many forums for making shit up. I suspect he has a major personality disorder and is probably a disgruntled pubic servant who got the shaft by a nasty conservative state government. He will make up anything and say anything to make get his Tweets re-tweeted. Next he will concoct a witness that has been present when Abbott sexually pleasured a hamster while screaming out “sex appeal”.
———————————————————–
As published by Independent Australia
The Ashbygate Trust is, however, fortunate enough to be able to call on the skills of a former Federal employee who considers it his calling to locate people and has some pretty good software to back up his talents. He describes the apparent disappearance of such a reasonably high-profile person as ‘unusual’.
In a nutshell, our witnesses at the Turtle Table say this person alleged he had a long-term affair with Mr Pyne but was jilted when Mr Pyne met and began an affair with James
Ashby. Read that again. The guest, moreover, reportedly alleges that Pyne is “up to his neck” in the Ashbygate affair.
We have a photograph of this guest and have confirmed his identity, but until we locate and speak with the missing guest this, of course, tantalisingly unconfirmed.
[may we ask who u are voting]
You can ask, sure.
[i dont care what newspoll does now , but when they were ringing me i have stated this a few times in the past years , i never got the chance to tell them who i would vote for because the yhung up when i took acception to the way they were polling]
Frankly, hardly surprising – they do have a job to do and do not need to put up with your drivel.
well I hang up of the stupid machine half way through
ringing me its an insult, just to annoy them I pressed all the wrong buttons
and told the machine to tell his master never to phone me again so there
[Total: JWS were right in 18/31.]
So why do people think they are 100% correct 3 years later?
william this was haydn comment @ 992
Haydn
Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 5:26 pm | PERMALINK
Meguire Bob 952
“This is a joke right ?”
So let me get this right. You are saying that when pollsters ring people for a poll they throw in some negative questions or remarks about the Government and then ask them who they intend to vote for. Is that a fair summation?
——————–
William Bowe
Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 5:45 pm | PERMALINK
So you were not asked who you would vote for, and your affirmative answer to Haydn’s question was wrong.
————–
how was it
good on MB tell it like it is mate I respect you so much mb
[I talk to perfect strangers]
Why does this not surprise me ….
I don’t do robo-polls either.
Remember the JWH phone calls – FM.
i was commenting on my experience to haydn statement
Because newspoll were ringing up people , asking negative questions about the government before they asked who would you vote for
Cursed be the name of the Nate , William, what did Kim Williams call it the Royal Order of the Tummy Compass ?
I can still recall the probability based predictions that Kooyong and North Sydney were in play in 2007.
\
SO U SOUND VERY HAPPY MR BOWE ARE U A LIBERAL VOTER
lol my say @ 1031
MB
I have never heard of Newpoll doing this, I have experienced Galaxy doing it though.
That is not asking voting intention first.
so in the usa they got It very wrong,
ask Andrew elder ann ex liberal what he thinks
he does not agree with u
I am happy, My Say. Life is sweet.
[I can still recall the probability based predictions that Kooyong and North Sydney were in play in 2007.]
For precisely that reason, I introduced to my model a function which dampens swings in seats which traditionally don’t move much (and amplifies them where they do).
[ask Andrew elder ann ex liberal what he thinks
he does not agree with u]
And I don’t agree with him. It happens.
My say , your so gauche really.
ruawake
Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 5:52 pm | PERMALINK
MB
I have never heard of Newpoll doing this, I have experienced Galaxy doing it though.
That is not asking voting intention first.
——————————————
Thats why opinion polling needs to change , they want to get the result to suit the media’s agenda
I talk to stranger what wrong with that typical
lib comment
we WILL WIN THIS FIHGT BOWE
my say
[well I hang up of the stupid machine half way through
ringing me its an insult, just to annoy them I pressed all the wrong buttons
and told the machine to tell his master never to phone me again so there]
and many like you think the same of robo polls. In the US, there has been up to 90% refusal rates on some auto polling per Pew Research.
And you have a landline, and be home on Thursday night (when all the JWS robo polling was done). Now I ask you, what type of person in 18-24 age bracket would be at home with a landline on a Thursday night?
[When I left the country Rudd was still into incumbency generation. He was taking the unorthodox but highly sensible approach of addressing the debt and deficits problem head on, challenging Tony Abbott to a debate. A very big tick: it was working, and Abbott was avoiding it.
There was still much more to do on the economic front. A few Youtube advertisements and press club talk weren’t nearly enough. And he hadn’t yet got around to putting the budget turnaround into international context.
This week all that seems a world away, and the Labor campaign appears stock-standard, something that could have been devised by any old clipboard boy or girl. Rudd is dashing around the country rolling out the barrel, yakking about nation-building.
On Friday he was in Western Australia with minister Kim Carr boasting of spending, spending, spending. Carr explained (or, rather, shouted) that the Liberals would never spend money on these magnificent things because they were too busy, well, saving money.
God help us, Rudd even warned that an Abbott government would “cut to the bone”.
Wasn’t the return of Rudd to the leadership supposed to end these banalities?]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/enough_with_the_nation_building/
Mumble notes that Gillard was in a similar situation at the last election. She turned that around by taking charge of the campaign herself and shunning the advice of those around her.
Is there a parallel on that front today? I guess we’ll see in time.
WELL WHO ARE U VCTING FO THEN SPILL THE BEANS
In the Silver spirit, he found robocalls favoured the republicans by 2-4% consistently. Anyone care to opine why?
I have a few theories.
[Now I ask you, what type of person in 18-24 age bracket would be at home with a landline on a Thursday night?]
Do robopolls apply a demographic quota?
SO U AGREE WITH YOUR MATE PVO