GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen, which has unusually conducted its poll from Tuesday to Thursday for publication at the start of the weekend (UPDATE: Ghost indicates that this is its normal practice during election campaigns), shows the Coalition with a lead of 52-48 after a 50-50 result in the previous poll of four weeks ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 37% and the Coalition up two to 46%, with the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings are down, though not quite to the same degree as in Newspoll: his approval is down three to 48% with disapproval up four to 47%. Tony Abbott on the other hand scores his best personal results from Nielsen since July 2011, his approval up four to 45% and disapproval down four to 52%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 55-41 to 50-42. The poll had Nielsen’s usual large sample of 1400. Full results including state breakdowns here.
Also through this evening is a Galaxy poll showing the Coalition with a 56-44 lead in Queensland, compared with 55.1-44.9 at the 2010 election. Annoyingly, the only detail on the primary vote provided in the Courier-Mail is that Labor is on 34%, compared with 33.6% in 2010. We are however provided with the following results from largely uninteresting attitudinal questions: 50% said Rudd had a good or very good understanding of issues that affect Queensland compared with 36%, with the respective poor ratings at 25% and 29%; 10% said they were more likely to vote for Rudd because he was a Queenslander; 35% of respondents over all, and 65% of Labor supporters, said they expected Labor to win. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800 respondents. (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens on 7%, Katter’s Australian Party on 4% and the Palmer United Party on 4%).
The above results have been used to update BludgerTrack, causing it to tick two seats in the Coalition’s direction with gains in Victoria and Queensland. I’m pleased to say that the tracker has done a good job of picking up Labor’s evident deflation in the latter state, with an early brace of projected Labor gains after Kevin Rudd’s return steady evaporating and now putting them very slightly in negative territory. It would not of course have picked up any Peter Beattie dividend for Labor as of yet. Less happily, the projection insists on granting Labor an implausible third seat in Western Australia. While the two most marginal Liberal seats of Hasluck and Swan could well be in the Labor firing line, the model is very likely overestimating their chances in Canning off the back of the boost Labor received there in 2010 from Alannah MacTiernan’s candidacy.
Finally, The Guardian reports on an automated phone poll conducted in Anthony Albanese’s inner-city Sydney electorate of Grayndler by Lonergan Research, who I have not encountered previously but whose work appears well regarded by those who have. It turns in a highly plausible set of numbers with Albanese at 47% on the primary vote (compared with 46.1% in 2010), the Liberals at 28% (up from 24.2%) and the Greens at 22% (down from 25.9%). A 66% two-party preferred vote for Labor is provided in the poll, which presumably means versus the Liberals (the Greens made it to the final count in 2010, leaving Albanese with a margin of 4.2%), although I’m not clear if this is previous-election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It seems respondents were not asked about preferences, so evidently it’s the former). The sample is a hefty 966.
UPDATE: Now we have a ReachTEL poll, conducted today, showing the Coalition leading 53-47. More to follow.
[Gary
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 4:56 pm | PERMALINK
It is stupid to take an individual poll and think you know the exact election result.
So it is stupid to look at past and present polling and use them to predict future polls. Good we agree then.]
No, it is stupid to ignore the polling, as you do, just because you don’t like it.
There are strengths and weaknesses of polls and the support for political parties is fluid, everyone accepts that.
The point is that when hundreds of polls, including more than a hundred thousand respondents, all saying the exact same thing (LNP win), albeit by different margins (Gee what a surprise hundreds of polls dont give the exact same number, whodathunk)……then it would be stupid to close your eyes and ears and pretend nothing is happening.
ML, so which poll predicted a Labor win in Victoria in 1999 one month out from that election?
Spider – almost, Abbott said this:
“The first lot of Australians were chosen by the finest judges in England….”
Idiot isn’t he.
http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9041/Remarks-at-City-of-Holdfast-Bay-Australia-Day-Awards-and-Citizenship-Ceremony-Adelaide.aspx
Channel 9 has consigned the debate to GEM, where no one will watch it, though it will pick up some viewers switching to the Ashes pre-show – just in time for it to end, though an extra 15 minutes is allocated for the verdict.
Only the ABC will have it on its main channel.
It is only one hour. Is that usual? They hardly have time to scrape the surface of any subject. I thought U.S. debates are longer.
[Meguire Bob
………
But there has been no polling done about the campaign yet]
Yes, apart from the Essential, Morgan, Newspoll, Reachtel, Galaxy and Neilsen.
So what did abbott do for the aboriginals during the last 11 years he was part of government? For that matter, what did the rest of the Fiberal Government do during that period? Apart from sending in the army in 2007.
[No, it is stupid to ignore the polling, as you do, just because you don’t like it.]
I’m not ignoring the polls. If the election happened this weekend I believe the Libs would have won as these these polls suggest but that doesn’t mean the Libs will win in 4 weeks.
It definitely appears that Abbott has the momentum at the moment. However, I’d much prefer he had the momentum now than in the last week of the campaign. Possible he can sustain it of course but I think this is unlikely.
Plenty of time to go and lots of surprises in store. You can wet the bed later!
Mod Lib
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 5:02 pm | PERMALINK
Meguire Bob
………
But there has been no polling done about the campaign yet
Yes, apart from the Essential, Morgan, Newspoll, Reachtel, Galaxy and Neilsen.
————————————————————–
the campaign started last sunday
the recent Essential, Morgan, Newspoll, Reachtel, Galaxy and Neilsen.
were done on the last month
Mod Lib
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 5:02 pm | PERMALINK
Meguire Bob
………
But there has been no polling done about the campaign yet
Yes, apart from the Essential, Morgan, Newspoll, Reachtel, Galaxy and Neilsen.
————————————————————–
the campaign started last sunday
the recent Essential, Morgan, Newspoll, Reachtel, Galaxy and Neilsen.
were done on the last month
[Gary
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 5:00 pm | PERMALINK
ML, so which poll predicted a Labor win in Victoria in 1999 one month out from that election?]
I didn’t follow the Vic election in 1999….which poll was it?
Taking one election and saying that the inability of polling to pick the result means that polling is not a useful means to determine likelihood of a government being elected is a bit like saying you smoked for 30 years and don’t have cancer so there is no link between smoking and cancer.
Oh right, thanks Mike. Idiot is right.
I see Nine and Seven using their alternative digital channels as the correct thing to do.
If people wish to watch the debate, they will. (It will rate well) If they want to watch whatever dross is on the main channel let them, they will only get more pissed off with politics if their fav Sunday show is axed.
[Spider
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 5:02 pm | PERMALINK
So what did abbott do for the aboriginals ]
….”for Aboriginal people” I think you mean?
I watched Mr Rudd presenting some money for works in a Launceston Football Park this afternoon (presumably so they wouldn’t get jealous of Hobart).
Very lacklustre. Nothing to stir the blood. Kept reading from notes (don’t blame him as he had to name all the locals), but could have been anyone. Pity the ABC showed it, really.
[Gary
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 5:04 pm | PERMALINK
No, it is stupid to ignore the polling, as you do, just because you don’t like it.
I’m not ignoring the polls. ]
Excellent, you have finally come around!
Phew! :devil: I was getting worried for you there for a while!
I dunno Aussie. I imagine there would have been lots of ALP identities.
Mod Lib
“….”for Aboriginal people” I think you mean?”
I have always used that term myself, but referring to an Aboriginal person as an Aboriginal is about as offensive as calling a Caucasian person a Caucasian. It’s kind of.. meh.
There is an app you can download to be a “worm” for the debate.
Dunno how it works.
https://itunes.apple.com/au/app/mobile-reactor/id433105653?mt=8
[I have always used that term myself, but referring to an Aboriginal person as an Aboriginal is about as offensive as calling a Caucasian person a Caucasian. It’s kind of.. meh.]
I would not be offended by it, but I know some Aboriginal people are offended by it, and it is a meaningless thing so why shouldn’t we use the term appropriately so as not to offend?
I think refusing to apologise to the stolen generations is offensive to everyone.
Rudd lacklustre… Bring back Julia… Baby head Shorten a run…
N2T
Gillardstoration now! It’s only a TWO word slogan.
[ruawake
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 5:15 pm | PERMALINK
I think refusing to apologise to the stolen generations is offensive to everyone.]
Completely agree
Anybody ignoring the polls? I don’t think so. The best showing was a possible 50/50 but that was probably due to the high volatility when there is a major issue going on (change in Labor leadership).
It has settled at around 48/52. Before the change in leadership I think this figures about what was expected on a change. A Labor win was seen as a remote if real possibility. And that is mainly due letting itself sit in the deficit column for so very long.
Nevertheless many Labor MPs have been saved and at worst Labor will be set for a win at the following election rather than still trying to rebuild. And of course without a friendly Senate Abbott is fairly neutered in the HoR for any ‘out there’ policy.
Re the NBN if Abbott wanted to sell what there is of it now would he require Senate approval? And if he wanted to stop work on it is he able to do that without anything going through the Senate?
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 19h
Think the key lesson we (progressive politics) should all learn from the last few years across governments. Get ruthless or go home]
Just to revisit this. I believe Rudd Labor has got their first few weeks exactly right. If the latest poll was 49/51 or 50/50 people would be much more relaxed and not complaining.
Before putting into play any more extreme strategy they first needed to see the lay of the land, and that is the first week of the election campaign, to know exactly where they sit.
I think it is fairly clear that 48/52/51 mark is going to be a very stubborn one. AND I think Labor doesn’t have much to lose really, it has already retrieved itself from the gates of hell – so they can afford to get more forceful.
AND I think with all the antics the MSM and Abbott have been getting up to as a matter of course the public won’t mark Labor down if they tried a bit of hyperbowl as well in regard to two particular issues. And Labor really need to shout loud to be heard over the Abbott Newscorpse noise making.
“Saved” by a kangaroo. Warms yer heart!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/08/simon-kruger-rescued-kangaroo-outback_n_3728092.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003&ir=Green
Ruawake what we need is more tokenism… Apologise to the first fleet convicts…
Bob Ellis easily wins Dio’s iDIOt of the day.
You could argue that choosing him is picking on a defenseless imbecile and a bit like shooting fish in a barrel but it’s been a quiet news day.
[Assuming an 8 percent primary vote for Katter, a 4 percent for Palmer, a 6 percent for the Greens, a base Labor vote of 36 and a base Coalition vote of 46, the two-party preferred vote comes in at 50-50, a 16 percent swing to Labor, and a Coalition loss in Queensland of twelve to seventeen seats. ]
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2013/08/10/the-nielsen-and-galaxy-polls/
The irony is that if Gillard were brought back now, Labor would get a boost in the polls for a week or so. Labor should do it just for the laughs. And they’d get a new slogan “A New New Way” or “Moving Forward Again”.
“Unreal Julia”?
New
Obviously you missed the point about the apology and why as Senator Carr makes clear it helped Australia’s worldwide reputation. Practical result a place on the Security Council of the UN.
That is disregarding the very real progress and healing for the Aboriginal community. I thought maybe you could at least appreciate the international result
You know that when most of the talk here is about whether the polls are either wrong or that they’re all outliers then the game is almost up.
Not looking forward to 7/9 but life will go on.
badseed
Yes it wont be a good result for newsltd/abbott coalition , if labor gets returned
H.W.Fowler in the bible of English usage Modern English Usage says (in 1926):
[aborigines. The word still being pronounced with a consciousness that it is Latin, the sing. aborigine is felt to be anamolous & avoided or disliked; the adj. aboriginal used as a noun is the best singular.]
Of course, this takes not the slightest account of cultural sensitivities.
The coalition can not win the election offering new hope to return to howard government golden era
Fascinating attitude TP – you can’t really lose because you are comparing a possible result against something that does not exist (a result under Gillard )
No matter how badly Rudd does (and I think he still has a fair way to fall) you will always say that Gillard would have done worse.
Mick77@979
I doubt it very, very much. I reckon if Gillard were to be brought back now Labor’s polling would immediately crash to a 2PP of at most 44 but more likely below 40. It would just be too much of a joke for anyone bar hardcore “Gillardistas” (and not even all of them) to bear.
Do you really expect such a claim to be taken seriously or do you just post it to attempt to annoy Labor supporters?
People should be thinking wtf with the coalition slogan of new hope
When they are recylced ex ministers in one of the worse governments (howard government) in Austrlaia
People should be thinking wtf with the coalition slogan of new hope
When they are recylced ex ministers in one of the worse governments (howard government) in Australia
[Meguire Bob
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 5:31 pm | PERMALINK
People should be thinking wtf with the coalition slogan of new hope
When they are recylced ex ministers ]
You prefer recycled ex Premiers and Union leaders?
Mod Lib, I never imagined I would ever say this, but thank you for correcting me, I didn’t know the correct protocol, having lived in NZ for most of the last 40 years, and have not had any contact with any aboriginal person since my primary school days, when there was exactly one in my school. Ron Hurley was his name, he was a mate. Having recently returned home, I now live in a safe fiberal seat, and I haven’t seen any ‘A.P.’ in the district.
I think the turd polisher award has to go to Meguire Bob…
Spider
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 5:02 pm | Permalink
So what did abbott do for the aboriginals during the last 11 years he was part of government? For that matter, what did the rest of the Fiberal Government do during that period? Apart from sending in the army in 2007.
===========================================================
Article by Chris Graham on Crikey
Liberal Brough spent much of his time as minister pounding the state and territory Labor governments for their poor performance on indigenous affairs. A good thing, too. But at the same time, in 2006-07 his department underspent the Indigenous Affairs budget by a staggering $600 million, one-fifth of the total budget. This in the same year that Brough declared “a national emergency” in NT Aboriginal communities.
I didn’t finish it … but I did start it
And speaking of the NT intervention, five years on the policy that defined Brough’s time as minister has seen school attendance drop, suicide and self-harm rates double, and a more than doubling in reports of violent incidents. All the while the incarceration rate has soared to almost 90% of the prison population.
The Community Development Employment Program — aka the black work for the dole — was designed and run by Aboriginal people, and had been chugging away relatively successfully for more than three decades.
Enter Brough, who decided in 2006 that CDEP had become a “destination” rather than a “path to real employment”. He began abolishing CDEP in remote regions, despite the fact CDEP was the ONLY source of employment in impoverished towns, not to mention the major funder of basic services. Aboriginal unemployment when Brough left office was at near record levels
In 2007, Brough decided Aboriginal people were at risk of becoming communists because they couldn’t purchase their own homes on collectively owned Aboriginal land in remote areas. So, after amending the Aboriginal Land Rights Act in the NT, Brough unveiled the Home Ownership on Indigenous Lands program (HOIL), a government-funded scheme aimed at helping blackfellas buy a plot of land they already owned.
He quarantined $100 million in government funding for HOIL while at the same time underfunding the highly successful Home Ownership Program (which enabled Aboriginal people anywhere in the country to access home loans). HOP’s waiting list blew out exponentially while money sat locked in the HOIL program.
Finally, after five years of operation, Brough’s HOIL was quietly shelved and the money diverted into HOP. The HOP waiting list dropped instantly from 1,500 to just over 400 — that’s more than 1000 Aboriginal families into home ownership almost overnight. And the cost of Brough’s HOIL adventure? Some $10 million to administer a program that provided just 15 loans worth $2.7 million.
“Exclusive 7News/ReachTEL poll results taken today” to be revealed on the Seven News in half an hour.
Kevin Rudd gets the Vegemite polisher award…
Kevin B
[Do you really expect such a claim to be taken seriously or do you just post it to attempt to annoy Labor supporters?]
Neither of the above – it was a joke, HOWEVER such is the mindset of electors that any change always excites, even another “Back to the Future” stunt, but we’ll never know.
Yippee another they are coming thick and fast this weekend…
My housemate was apparently polled. He didn’t catch the name of the pollster though.
I never get polled 🙁
“@RachelSCTV: Election campaign drama in #tasmania after the Prime Minister’s car ran over a photographer’s foot. #pollpain #auspol #sxnews @SXNewsTas”
Newscorpse?
I suspect the Liberal strategists have decided to go soft on Rudd while the sugar coating is still on. Now that it is rapidly disappearing (decreasing approval, rising disapproval, dipping PPM) they will shortly wind up the attack. Not only on Rudd’s personality and failures but the dysfunctional government for the last 3 years and the “retirement” of most of the senior cabinet. I can see an ad “if his own colleagues can’t stand him; why should Australia”