GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen, which has unusually conducted its poll from Tuesday to Thursday for publication at the start of the weekend (UPDATE: Ghost indicates that this is its normal practice during election campaigns), shows the Coalition with a lead of 52-48 after a 50-50 result in the previous poll of four weeks ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 37% and the Coalition up two to 46%, with the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings are down, though not quite to the same degree as in Newspoll: his approval is down three to 48% with disapproval up four to 47%. Tony Abbott on the other hand scores his best personal results from Nielsen since July 2011, his approval up four to 45% and disapproval down four to 52%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 55-41 to 50-42. The poll had Nielsen’s usual large sample of 1400. Full results including state breakdowns here.
Also through this evening is a Galaxy poll showing the Coalition with a 56-44 lead in Queensland, compared with 55.1-44.9 at the 2010 election. Annoyingly, the only detail on the primary vote provided in the Courier-Mail is that Labor is on 34%, compared with 33.6% in 2010. We are however provided with the following results from largely uninteresting attitudinal questions: 50% said Rudd had a good or very good understanding of issues that affect Queensland compared with 36%, with the respective poor ratings at 25% and 29%; 10% said they were more likely to vote for Rudd because he was a Queenslander; 35% of respondents over all, and 65% of Labor supporters, said they expected Labor to win. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800 respondents. (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens on 7%, Katter’s Australian Party on 4% and the Palmer United Party on 4%).
The above results have been used to update BludgerTrack, causing it to tick two seats in the Coalition’s direction with gains in Victoria and Queensland. I’m pleased to say that the tracker has done a good job of picking up Labor’s evident deflation in the latter state, with an early brace of projected Labor gains after Kevin Rudd’s return steady evaporating and now putting them very slightly in negative territory. It would not of course have picked up any Peter Beattie dividend for Labor as of yet. Less happily, the projection insists on granting Labor an implausible third seat in Western Australia. While the two most marginal Liberal seats of Hasluck and Swan could well be in the Labor firing line, the model is very likely overestimating their chances in Canning off the back of the boost Labor received there in 2010 from Alannah MacTiernan’s candidacy.
Finally, The Guardian reports on an automated phone poll conducted in Anthony Albanese’s inner-city Sydney electorate of Grayndler by Lonergan Research, who I have not encountered previously but whose work appears well regarded by those who have. It turns in a highly plausible set of numbers with Albanese at 47% on the primary vote (compared with 46.1% in 2010), the Liberals at 28% (up from 24.2%) and the Greens at 22% (down from 25.9%). A 66% two-party preferred vote for Labor is provided in the poll, which presumably means versus the Liberals (the Greens made it to the final count in 2010, leaving Albanese with a margin of 4.2%), although I’m not clear if this is previous-election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It seems respondents were not asked about preferences, so evidently it’s the former). The sample is a hefty 966.
UPDATE: Now we have a ReachTEL poll, conducted today, showing the Coalition leading 53-47. More to follow.
<20% chance of an ALP win according to the betting companies
1.3% chance of an ALP win according to Bludgertrack
Thanks ru
Sportsbet have the ultimate betting contra promotion with this.
[Applies to the first TV debate between Rudd and Abbott in 2013. 7Two result as to the overall winner of the debate.]
Bet on the debate, but you have to watch 7 Two to find out if you won. Oh Kevs miles in front if anyone cares.
Mod lib
Here is some factual data which would interested in you
in 2010
Labor primary 37.99% & 50.12% in 2pp
Coaliiton primary 43.6% & 49.88% in 2pp
ruawake@881
Although Katter won his preferences were still distributed for the purposes of calculating the two-party 2PP.
Newspoll Approval: Rudd ahead of Abbott by only 4% (3% improvement for Abbott)
Neilsen Approval: Rudd ahead of Abbott by only 3% (7% improvement for Abbott)
Newspoll Disapproval: Rudd better than Abbott by 9% (6% improvement for Abbott)
Neilsen Disapproval: Rudd better than Abbott by 5% (8% improvement for Abbott)
Newspoll PPM: Rudd ahead of Abbott by 14% (2% improvement for Abbott)
Neilsen PPM: Rudd ahead of Abbott by 8% (6% improvement for Abbott)
Darn@887
Abbott will probably find once elected that he can’t simply “undo” all the NBN contracts. But then, why would he want to? Rupert is not against the NBN – he is only against the NBN if it threatens his interests.
I can see Abbot’s post-election win press conference now (no doubt with Turnbull feverishly texting his stock broker in the background):
[ “Dreadfully sorry, folks – the nasty old ALP have roooned all our plans! We’ll just have to leave these NBN contracts intact – but don’t worry, we have a NEW plan to recoup all that money the ALP has wasted! We’ll be slicing and dicing the NBN and selling bits of it off to whoever wants to put in a bid … Why, I’ve just heard that my old mate Rupert has put a bid in for all the major cities … so of course we’ll be completing those bits first … but don’t you rural and regional people worry, we’ll get around to the rest of Australia just as soon as someone makes us a decent offer! Now, let me hear thee cheers for good old uncle Rupert, our savior!” ]
Hawke’s right.
I’ve never heard Rudd or Wong or ALbo just tell it like it is.
Anyone can create a surplus. The government could do it tomorrow. But what’s the point if there’s no Medicare, no NBN. no NDIS, no super, no globally competitive economy, no Snowy Mountains River Scheme, no PBS, no universal access to higher education, no aged pension….and on it goes on. The Liberals would have us in decades of surpluses up to our armpits. So what.
The ALP has a fucking amazing history of building this nation. Why don’t they start telling the story. People forget this stuff. What in the name of all that is fucking holy has the Liberal party ever actually done?
[Kevin Bonham
…..
Although Katter won his preferences were still distributed for the purposes of calculating the two-party 2PP.]
If KAP preferences went 70:30 to the LNP does anyone know the rate including exhaustion?
Was it 35% LNP – 15% ALP – 50% exhaust ?
[ What in the name of all that is fucking holy has the Liberal party ever actually done? ]
Made a lot of their mates enormously wealthy?
Abbott: “The company tax comes down and that is all about creating a better climate for investment and jobs. As Julia Gillard said at the beginning of last year, ‘If you are against cutting the company tax, you are against jobs’.”
The oddity and hypocrisy of Abbott’s reliance on the authority of the former Prime Minister whom he blames for mishandling the economy.
Where do Australia’s top companies keep their money?
The ASX 100 includes 61 Australian companies that maintain 686 subsidiaries in ‘secrecy jurisdictions’ as tax havens for tax avoidance are called
Mod Lib@901
Bludgertrack is giving the chances of an ALP win if an election was held right now, or on the assumption that there is no change of voting intention between now and election day. It’s a “nowcast” not a “forecast” to use Nate Silver’s lingo.
Incidentally the Pottinger model is a forecast and it is giving Labor only 0.8% of winning outright and a 7.8% chance of a hung parliament (most versions of which would, I think, result in a Labor government or a new election.) The main reason for this is that it uses the betting markets as well as the polls.
As for why it should give such a low chance when the polls are still giving double-figure chances, I suspect that’s consistent with the idea of “longshot bias” – as Labor gets out towards high single figures, the markets should be increasingly overvaluing it in proportion to the actual odds. At least this has been the case with election betting in the past.
Mod Lib@909
Stuffed up there, the only original text in #914 was “That was the 2010 federal election breakdown so there was no exhaust.”
The heresy of Abbott’s gospel of low taxes.
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/the-heresy-of-the-gospel-of-low-taxes/676/ …
OK important stuff, who will be worming tomorrow night and who will be doin’ it straight?
Ruawake
not me. I cannot watch abbott under any circumstances.
go tiges.
Thanks KB
ruawake
There is one certain thing , Abbott will not be saying anything new
Stop the boats
Stop the mining tax
etc
etc
for majority of the debate
I will remind everyone, that much of what is being said about this election at this point, the high likelihood of a Coalition win etc, was being said at this point in the 2010 election campaign about a Labor win. In fact, my memory of the 2010 campaign is that Labor appeared to be cruising, until that final Newspoll was released with Labor only leading 50.2-49.8 2pp. Even then, when Galaxy and Nielsen came out with results of 52-48, it was considered highly probable that Labor would achieve a majority.
Looking back at the polling from the 2010 campaign, the only time apart from that last couple of days that things looked genuinely close, was in the immediate aftermath of the leaks, which were revealed on July 27 and reflected in the polls immediately following.
Labor took a hit from the economic statement. Anyone in the Labor campaign team with half a brain would have known that a hit from that was likely, but PEFO meant this could not be avoided. This was never likely to be recovered within a few days. Of course Labor are behind at this very moment, but nowhere near far enough for this election to be considered even close to being over.
So I expect we will see another Newspoll either tomorrow night or Monday night? They released every week of the last campaign.
@ matt31 #921
Can’t argue with that.
4 weeks to go. Anything could happen favoring either side.
Aussie@916 – one of the posters on that article IMO summed up the Libs economic strategy quite well:
…the rich get richer. The poor get the picture.
I know you’ve gone for now Centre- but thanks for the response to my question.
If the GST is not a tax why is it called Goods and Services TAX? Even in the UK it’s called a VAT- Value? added ? Tax…
matt 31
i think there may be another nieslon poll on monday
which will be polled on the election week, were the recent one wasnt
ML likes to look at present and past polls and use them to predict the future. Pity they don’t do that hey?
What matt31 says in #921 is quite true. A lot can change in voting intention in a campaign.
However there is a similarity between 2010 and 2013 and that is Labor leadership change. The washing out of the leadership change bounce may well have contributed in 2010 and it may well not be Labor’s friend now.
I’m actually not convinced that the economic statement is exclusively the cause of the hit in polling in the last week. Natural bounce washout could well be part of it too.
Kevin
I think Obied was also a factor , and the coalition being hidden in the polling questons
Labor’s best hope is that Beattie can exploit the Queensland Government’s failings, not only in Forde but throughout the state.
Lots of seats that could become vulnerable.
Rosemour
[If I’m wrong, I’ll stop posting.]
Don’t do that! It’s always nice to come here after a break to see what little rays of sunshine you have left here and there to brighten my day.
MB Kevin
I think the Liberals will have to deal with any fallout from Sinodinos involvement with Obeid.
Before being elected to the Senate in 2011, Mr Sinodinos was a director of AWH, which ICAC has heard is an Obeid-related company.
In early 2012 the NSW Coalition government awarded AWH a 25-year water infrastructure deal without any tenders. Corporate records show that Mr Sinodinos was a director of AWH from November 2008 until November 2011.
[Interesting fact: Warren Mundine married Gerard Henderson’s daughter and now works as a consultant for Tony Abbott.]
WM had a 100 relatives at the wedding
[Gary
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 4:20 pm | PERMALINK
ML likes to look at present and past polls and use them to predict the future. Pity they don’t do that hey?]
“Yes but polls are meaningless with 2 years to go”
“Yes, but polls are meaningless with 18 months to go”
“Yes, but polls are meaningless with 12 months to go”
“Yes, but polls are meaningless with 9 months to go”
“Yes, but polls are meaningless with 6 months to go”
“Yes, but polls are meaningless with 3 months to go”
….guess what? There is less than 1 month to go now!
Thanks for proving my point ML.
Thanks for proving mine!
[What in the name of all that is fucking holy has the Liberal party ever actually done?]
they stop stuff….keep a lid on it
Well Mod Lib, polls may well be meaningless until the votes are actually counted.
If they were predictive 6 months ago then they are bloody way off that mark now.
In other words, polls may be meaningless (as Meguire Bob and Bob Ellis may well say).
GST Definition as described by James Cook University
Goods and Services Tax (GST) is a broad-based tax of 10% on the supply of most goods, services etc consumed in Australia. GST is a tax on transactions and not on entities.
Unlike stamp duty an entity cannot be exempted from GST. GST is a tax on private consumption; businesses that are registered for GST can recoup the GST charged on their purchases.
6 months ago the Libs were looking at a landslide these polls are not saying that right now. If they were predicting the future back then why aren’t they still showing that, hmm?
Bloody hypocrite Abbott ranting about his care for aboriginals… yet didn’t he refer to convicts as Aussie’s first people on Australia day I think?
It is stupid to take an individual poll and think you know the exact election result.
It is just as stupid to look at 3 years of polling all showing a Coalition win and pretending that the ALP is storming to victory.
BTW ML, I’m still trying to work out what your point was.
[Gary
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 4:53 pm | PERMALINK
6 months ago the Libs were looking at a landslide these polls are not saying that right now. If they were predicting the future back then why aren’t they still showing that, hmm?]
Not sure whether you missed it but Gillard was dumped, as I said she would be.
What do you think would have happened in the election if it was Gillard vs. Abbott? Do you think the polls were wrong?
[It is stupid to take an individual poll and think you know the exact election result.]
So it is stupid to look at past and present polling and use them to predict future polls. Good we agree then.
[Gary
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 4:54 pm | PERMALINK
BTW ML, I’m still trying to work out what your point was.]
Yes, I know.
The point was that you, and many others here, are in denial.
shellbell
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 4:38 pm | Permalink
Interesting fact: Warren Mundine married Gerard Henderson’s daughter and now works as a consultant for Tony Abbott.
WM had a 100 relatives at the wedding
—————————————————-
Did Abbott attend?
He was best man at Slippers wedding and look how well that turned out for the friendship
[What do you think would have happened in the election if it was Gillard vs. Abbott? Do you think the polls were wrong?]
At that point in time, if an election had been held they probably would have been correct. All you are doing is proving my point.
Mod Lib
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 4:46 pm | PERMALINK
Gary
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 4:20 pm | PERMALINK
ML likes to look at present and past polls and use them to predict the future. Pity they don’t do that hey?
….guess what? There is less than 1 month to go now!
———
But there has been no polling done about the campaign yet