Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition; Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition in Queensland

The first Nielsen result of the campaign propels the BludgerTrack poll aggregate another notch further in the Coalition’s direction, while a Galaxy poll from Queensland confirms the evaporation there of a Ruddstoration boost which presumably sent Labor to Peter Beattie’s door.

GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen, which has unusually conducted its poll from Tuesday to Thursday for publication at the start of the weekend (UPDATE: Ghost indicates that this is its normal practice during election campaigns), shows the Coalition with a lead of 52-48 after a 50-50 result in the previous poll of four weeks ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 37% and the Coalition up two to 46%, with the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings are down, though not quite to the same degree as in Newspoll: his approval is down three to 48% with disapproval up four to 47%. Tony Abbott on the other hand scores his best personal results from Nielsen since July 2011, his approval up four to 45% and disapproval down four to 52%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 55-41 to 50-42. The poll had Nielsen’s usual large sample of 1400. Full results including state breakdowns here.

Also through this evening is a Galaxy poll showing the Coalition with a 56-44 lead in Queensland, compared with 55.1-44.9 at the 2010 election. Annoyingly, the only detail on the primary vote provided in the Courier-Mail is that Labor is on 34%, compared with 33.6% in 2010. We are however provided with the following results from largely uninteresting attitudinal questions: 50% said Rudd had a good or very good understanding of issues that affect Queensland compared with 36%, with the respective poor ratings at 25% and 29%; 10% said they were more likely to vote for Rudd because he was a Queenslander; 35% of respondents over all, and 65% of Labor supporters, said they expected Labor to win. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800 respondents. (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens on 7%, Katter’s Australian Party on 4% and the Palmer United Party on 4%).

The above results have been used to update BludgerTrack, causing it to tick two seats in the Coalition’s direction with gains in Victoria and Queensland. I’m pleased to say that the tracker has done a good job of picking up Labor’s evident deflation in the latter state, with an early brace of projected Labor gains after Kevin Rudd’s return steady evaporating and now putting them very slightly in negative territory. It would not of course have picked up any Peter Beattie dividend for Labor as of yet. Less happily, the projection insists on granting Labor an implausible third seat in Western Australia. While the two most marginal Liberal seats of Hasluck and Swan could well be in the Labor firing line, the model is very likely overestimating their chances in Canning off the back of the boost Labor received there in 2010 from Alannah MacTiernan’s candidacy.

Finally, The Guardian reports on an automated phone poll conducted in Anthony Albanese’s inner-city Sydney electorate of Grayndler by Lonergan Research, who I have not encountered previously but whose work appears well regarded by those who have. It turns in a highly plausible set of numbers with Albanese at 47% on the primary vote (compared with 46.1% in 2010), the Liberals at 28% (up from 24.2%) and the Greens at 22% (down from 25.9%). A 66% two-party preferred vote for Labor is provided in the poll, which presumably means versus the Liberals (the Greens made it to the final count in 2010, leaving Albanese with a margin of 4.2%), although I’m not clear if this is previous-election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It seems respondents were not asked about preferences, so evidently it’s the former). The sample is a hefty 966.

UPDATE: Now we have a ReachTEL poll, conducted today, showing the Coalition leading 53-47. More to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,067 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition; Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition in Queensland”

Comments Page 18 of 22
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  1. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/body-recovery-equipment-will-spare-sailors/story-fn59niix-1226694527956

    [The move reflects the continued failure of asylum-seeker policy, which has seen more than 1100 men, women and children drown and 50,000 asylum-seekers arrive since the Rudd government relaxed border protection in 2008.]

    Well, there is no doubt where the editorial scum sucking bottom dwellers from the Australian stand is there? Even reporting on something like this they will have their go at the Government. Just a day or so ago there are reports the numbers are slowing, the trade is starting to disrupt, but hey, now they have the opportunity to push every bodies button by slanting this story.

    Could just as easily have been reported that the Navy is preparing for a Coalition victory in the election as they expect more body recovery operations after people realize they may get visa’s with a Coalition Govt in power.

    Murdoch and his filthy minions doing the editing are utterly beyond contempt, and their trained :monkey: puppet as well.

  2. AA

    Plus the $1.5 billion from axing the off budget clean energy finance corporation.

    This money just does not exist to save, but its fine for Tony.

  3. 799

    It was accurate of Abbott to say that paid maternity/parental leave would happen over the Howard Government`s dead body.

  4. My reading of the tea leaves presented at the moment is
    In two weeks time when both parties should have presented more to the electorate and facts on the LNP bottom line should be there fore all to see. If things go as the ALP is hoping the facts will hurt LNP. In saying that, the ALP have to start getting just as dirty as the LNP are. Lies do not seem to be hurting the LNP. As in all contests “show a good looser and I will show you a looser”
    ALP is in with a good chance but they have to fight Abbot at his own game.
    As we all know a lot of the voting public are riveted on for the party they voted for in the last election it’s that small % that change and I am not sure that the Polls reflect that small %.

  5. Hi Centre

    I’ve been waiting to catch up with you.

    Someone posted a comment yesterday or the day before to the effect that you had put a $2000 bet on someone or something – K2k was the way it was expressed. Is that right – and if so what was that all about?

  6. Thanks William, it’s interesting to know how they work. Now I’m a little upset that I didn’t take the time. If they get a good response from this area then the Greens vote might be a little bit higher than usual…

  7. If Abbott raises the GST he’ll blame the ALPs ‘mismanagement’
    and debt and deficit’.

    And the punters will nod in agreement…’bloody Labor party’ they’ll mutter.

    And the ALP will. say. nothing.

  8. 855

    It is where a vote, when it is distributed in the preference count, instead of going to a candidate goes nowhere. It happens in NSW, Queensland and Tasmania because they have optional preferences.

  9. Exhaust preferences means the preferences get allocated up in order of preference until they finally get allocated to one of the final two in line to win the seat.

  10. Darn

    I had already backed Labor @ $6.

    I might back Abbott after the debate at $1.20.

    I will stand to lose $1k regardless of the result.

  11. [Um, what does “exhaust rate” mean as regards preferences?]

    Queensland (along with NSW) has optional preferential voting, so you don’t have to number every box – and with every election that passes, more and more people (approaching 70% last time) are just numbering one and leaving it at that. So whereas every single vote at a federal election will end up in the final preference count and thus as part of the “two-party preferred vote”, quite a number at a Queensland state election will disappear from the count (“exhaust”) as preferences are distributed. Which obviously limits the value of drawing inferences for what preferences might do at a federal election.

  12. 789
    confessions
    [This still sums it all up for me:

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 19h
    Think the key lesson we (progressive politics) should all learn from the last few years across governments. Get ruthless or go home]

    Yep.

    Ugly, but reality.

  13. Tom the first and best@864

    855

    It is where a vote, when it is distributed in the preference count, instead of going to a candidate goes nowhere. It happens in NSW, Queensland and Tasmania because they have optional preferences.

    Correct. Tas actually has semi-optional preferencing (must preference to 5 in the lower house and 3 in the upper house – the latter becomes effectively compulsory preferencing when there are fewer than 5 candidates.)

    Votes can also exhaust in the Senate because the voter double-numbers or skips a number, or because below the line voters can leave the last <10% blank.

    (The latter is a little-known method by which a cautious minor party voter who hates both majors can cause their vote to exhaust without the key candidate for either major getting it.)

  14. [Rosemour or Less
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 2:50 pm | Permalink
    Darn

    Your lots happy go lucky she’ll be right if we just keeping saying the MSM are agin us and nudge nudge wink wink Abbott’s toast stuff gives me the shits.]

    You must have me confused with someone else. I actually believe it is very likely Labor will lose and am looking beyond the election and what it will mean for the country and ordinary Australians. I have posted a number of comments about that. I think it was Victoria who posted earlier that if you have complaints (or suggestions) about the way the campaign is being run you would be much better served if you sent them elsewhere – and so would we.

  15. I share your concerns Centre. The argument will be, I presume, that the tax cuts given because of Carbon pricing will cover a GST change. Will a GST increase stall the economy? It will reduce consumer spending I guess…perhaps increase on line spending?

    Thanks also to Rua for the info on Morgan polling.

  16. liyana

    An increase in amount or coverage of the GST must slow the economy. It must as it instantly makes the prices of goods and services more expensive.

    *gotta go

  17. mtbw

    Earlier on I did comment on Mundine cracking the sads because he was overlooked for the senate seat that actually went to Bob Carr. I reckon Labor dodged a big problem there

  18. [There is also data on Katter’s own preferences in 2010. They split 70:30 to Coalition albeit in a 62:38 electorate.]

    He won? Please explain.

  19. the Silver Bodgie on the hustings, showing the right attitude for the circumstances
    [
    Former Prime Minister Bob Hawke says he rates Labor the “underdog” to win the election, but is still confident the party can beat the coalition on September 7.

    “We’d have to still be rated the underdog but we can win,” Mr Hawke told reporters as he left the campaign launch of Labor’s candidate for Kingsford Smith, Matt Thistlethwaite.

    The former PM was in the Sydney seat to spruik for Mr Thistlethwaite, who was preselected after retiring MP Peter Garrett announced he wouldn’t recontest it.

    Mr Hawke told the campaign launch he was “absolutely bloody staggered by the cheek of this bloke Abbott.” He said history showed Labor performed better on economic management than the coalition.

    “Look at the present, we have an economy in Australia that the other developed economies of the world would give their bloody eye-teeth for,” Mr Hawke told the crowd of around 100 people at Maroubra surf club.

    “Theirs (the coalition’s) is a record of hopeless mismanagement.” The former PM urged voters to assess both the ALP and the coalition like they were “buying a new car”.

    “You look at the record, the performance, you go for the one that’s got the record, the performance,” he said.

    “Look at the records … It’s Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor every time.” Mr Hawke’s appearance comes a day after another former PM, John Howard, talked up the Liberal’s candidate in the Central Coast seat of Dobell.

    And Mr Hawke was not going to be outdone, describing Mr Thistlethwaite as a “bloody marvellous candidate”.]

  20. [@MikeKellyMP is having an NBN forum in Queanbeyan, huge turn out! #auspol]

    Today was NFD “National Field Day” in some marginal electorates, it was a get together for ALP supporters. The huge turn outs were everywhere.

  21. The GST was NOT a TAX!!!!

    Howard was just putting a Fixed Price on Goods and Services!

    You know it makes sense to Labor dickheads

  22. Can anyone please tell me if Abbott has to legislate to undo the current arrangments with the NBN or if he can do lots of mischief without doing so?

  23. New2This
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 3:16 pm | PERMALINK
    What NBN…

    —————–
    The one which is going to deliver up to 1000mbps/400mbps within the year

    compared to the coalition up to 25mbps/ 5 mbps lol

  24. Sean

    Yep the coalition won’t change or increase the GST. They will just put a levy on the GST.
    You know it makes bloody sense

  25. 873

    The last 10% rule in the Senate does indeed allow people to avoid voting for a candidate who can benefit from it. And it seems Langer voting is still allowed in the Senate.

  26. Centre

    Thanks for clearing that up for me. Sometimes you just have to bail out don’t you? I had a massive bet in 2010 but had to lay most of it off when things went sour. Ended up winning but it was only peanuts.

  27. victoria

    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

    Sean

    Yep the coalition won’t change or increase the GST. They will just put a levy on the GST.
    You know it makes bloody sense
    ———————————————————

    it would not be the first time the Liberals put a tax on a tax.

  28. [Can anyone please tell me if Abbott has to legislate to undo the current arrangments with the NBN or if he can do lots of mischief without doing so?]

    His biggest issue is existing contracts, they will need to be cancelled and paid for or continued for 3 years. It may be a bit dodgy if they cancel a contract, pay billions in penalty payments then have to rehire the same companies to plug in fraudband.

  29. ruawake

    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    Can anyone please tell me if Abbott has to legislate to undo the current arrangments with the NBN or if he can do lots of mischief without doing so?

    His biggest issue is existing contracts, they will need to be cancelled and paid for or continued for 3 years. It may be a bit dodgy if they cancel a contract, pay billions in penalty payments then have to rehire the same companies to plug in fraudband.
    ——————————————————-

    Now that’s just exposing the Fraudband lie and how much it will really cost…..Sean will be upset

  30. [davidwh
    Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 3:00 pm | Permalink
    Obviously 866 is rubbish so please ignore. Sorry.
    ]

    David

    We automatically assume that about all of your posts. So no need to point it out (just pulling your leg) 😆

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