GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen, which has unusually conducted its poll from Tuesday to Thursday for publication at the start of the weekend (UPDATE: Ghost indicates that this is its normal practice during election campaigns), shows the Coalition with a lead of 52-48 after a 50-50 result in the previous poll of four weeks ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 37% and the Coalition up two to 46%, with the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings are down, though not quite to the same degree as in Newspoll: his approval is down three to 48% with disapproval up four to 47%. Tony Abbott on the other hand scores his best personal results from Nielsen since July 2011, his approval up four to 45% and disapproval down four to 52%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 55-41 to 50-42. The poll had Nielsen’s usual large sample of 1400. Full results including state breakdowns here.
Also through this evening is a Galaxy poll showing the Coalition with a 56-44 lead in Queensland, compared with 55.1-44.9 at the 2010 election. Annoyingly, the only detail on the primary vote provided in the Courier-Mail is that Labor is on 34%, compared with 33.6% in 2010. We are however provided with the following results from largely uninteresting attitudinal questions: 50% said Rudd had a good or very good understanding of issues that affect Queensland compared with 36%, with the respective poor ratings at 25% and 29%; 10% said they were more likely to vote for Rudd because he was a Queenslander; 35% of respondents over all, and 65% of Labor supporters, said they expected Labor to win. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800 respondents. (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens on 7%, Katter’s Australian Party on 4% and the Palmer United Party on 4%).
The above results have been used to update BludgerTrack, causing it to tick two seats in the Coalition’s direction with gains in Victoria and Queensland. I’m pleased to say that the tracker has done a good job of picking up Labor’s evident deflation in the latter state, with an early brace of projected Labor gains after Kevin Rudd’s return steady evaporating and now putting them very slightly in negative territory. It would not of course have picked up any Peter Beattie dividend for Labor as of yet. Less happily, the projection insists on granting Labor an implausible third seat in Western Australia. While the two most marginal Liberal seats of Hasluck and Swan could well be in the Labor firing line, the model is very likely overestimating their chances in Canning off the back of the boost Labor received there in 2010 from Alannah MacTiernan’s candidacy.
Finally, The Guardian reports on an automated phone poll conducted in Anthony Albanese’s inner-city Sydney electorate of Grayndler by Lonergan Research, who I have not encountered previously but whose work appears well regarded by those who have. It turns in a highly plausible set of numbers with Albanese at 47% on the primary vote (compared with 46.1% in 2010), the Liberals at 28% (up from 24.2%) and the Greens at 22% (down from 25.9%). A 66% two-party preferred vote for Labor is provided in the poll, which presumably means versus the Liberals (the Greens made it to the final count in 2010, leaving Albanese with a margin of 4.2%), although I’m not clear if this is previous-election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It seems respondents were not asked about preferences, so evidently it’s the former). The sample is a hefty 966.
UPDATE: Now we have a ReachTEL poll, conducted today, showing the Coalition leading 53-47. More to follow.
Having read my last post I think I’ll go & have a rest. 😛
[Since KAP and PUP were not around at the last election, how are their preferences distributed? Since that is 8% of the vote, it is significant]
Looks like Galaxy have treated them as 60-40 to the LNP.
mike – Yep.
Didn’t play the game the same as the others do.
Achieved a lot along the way.
Could someone please explain to me how CAP and PUP preferences are being allocated in polls? This could be quite important in Qld.
My guess is that they’re allocated as per the aggregated “others” preference flows from 2010. I’ve emailed them asking for clarification, and will let you know if they provide any.
@ruawake
Thanks!
Oh dear, mikehilliard. I missed it until you said that and I went to the trouble of reloading the previous page.
[Rudd had it right when he attacked Abbott’s AS policy escalating it as a diplomatic and physical risk to Aust. It got attention and caused people to pay attention.]
Agree. I thought he had the issue neutered at that point.
Thanks William. Preference flows from those two parties will be interesting!
to those hoping for an Abbott meltdown, he already had one- the Riley mad nodding and silence. Would have finished any other leader. Makes the Hewson birthday cake and Latham handshake look favorable.
Abbott is untouchable and I though Howard was Mr Teflon.
confessions@773
lefty e@778
The article is a serial trainwreck of idiocy, even by Ellis’s lofty standards. I counted five factual errors in the first paragraph and at least 13 incorrect claims or grossly erroneous arguments in total.
To take the first para only – Nielsen does do PPM, Galaxy calls mobiles, Nielsen does publish age breakdowns, people under 35 do use landlines at least if they live with their parents (or an older partner!*), and Tues-Thurs is (according to @GhostWhoVotes at least) a regular Nielsen election-time schedule.
If any pollster ever gets sick of Ellis’s raving accusations and sues him for defamation for his false fraud claims I will cheer them all the way. He either has psychological problems or else lacks both clues and standards. He is a blot on public political life, though fortunately an amusing one in a grotesquely absurd sor of way.
[brick venereal development]
There could be a whole new industry based on that.
‘Get ruthless or go home’
Gee.
Wish I’d thought of that.
The ALP do want to win,right?
I figured, KB.
I think a 60-40 average expectancy for KAP and PUP combined is fine. The idea that KAP supporters are pro-Labor has no basis in evidence beyond that Katter was willing to keep Rudd in til the election.
If you add the LNP and their % of Green prefs it comes to about 49.5 to get to 56 from the 11% left Galaxy must be treating them like Family First.
lefty e@814
Yep, I reckoned from the “er” that you would. 🙂
Yep, ruthless, and smart.
Attack Abbott and the liberals HEAD ON on the economy.
Savage cuts its what the EU did – and look at that mess.
Thanks Kevin Bonham.
Now I feel like crap again.
Victoria!!
Help!!!
KAP/PUP preferences are a distraction – the focus needs to be on the ALP primary – and it’s heading south !
MC (Master Campaigner) Rudd and Guru Hawker need to bring their supposed campaign genius to the table, pronto !
Questions Abbott should answer
1. Why do you always walk away from interviews when the questions get a little hard?
2. Why do you demand that others act in accordance with the way you want them to act, but then you act in a completely different manner to which you demand they act?
3. You’ve demanded that both Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper stand aside, despite the fact that neither of them has been found guilty of any inappropriate behaviour.
However, when Senator Mary Jo Fisher was charged with shoplifting and criminal assault, you not only said: “The party is right behind her and supporting her in this tough time”, but you also demanded that she be extended the “presumption of innocence”.
Isn’t that hypocritical of you considering that you haven’t given either Craig Thomson nor Peter Slipper that same presumption of innocence? And you continued to support Senator Mary Jo Fisher AFTER she had been found guilty of assault.
And likewise, Bill Heffernan has been accused of assault and yet, you continue to support him and you refuse to act. Do you not consider assault to be a serious crime?
4. When you were in your 20’s, you were charged with indecent assault. As a result, you had to go to court to fight the charges, which were subsequently dismissed.
As someone who has faced an accusation of indecent assault, a very serious crime, shouldn’t you have a vested interest in ensuring that the presumption of innocence is a right that we all have?
Or do you believe that Coalition politicians, like Senator Mary Jo Fisher, are entitled to be treated differently to Independent or Labor MP’s such as Peter Slipper or Craig Thomson (who still has not been charged with ANY crime)?
[There could be a whole new industry based on that.]
Instead of the mining boom we could have the Penicillin boom in response.
[I think a 60-40 average expectancy for KAP and PUP combined is fine.]
It will be interesting to see who gets where on HTV cards. Until then we are guessing in Qld.
Oh and the Greens will get a much higher vote in SE Qld. 7% is fantasy.
Kevin, thanks for you input.
But what do you base your assessment of the Galaxy 60/40 split on Katter supporters, other than gut instinct. I would have thought that Katter would be attracting a lot of blue collar trad labor voters, but could be wrong.
Further, what will happen if Labor gets pref deals with Katter?
Are you saying that Nielsen weights its results to make sure that it has each age demographic to make sure there is no land-lines effect.
Further, how does Nielsen weight the green vote?
The irony of Bannister from One Nation pulling out is that she would have got the highest vote of any ONP candidate bar Hanson after her public gaffes.
Simon Jackman has some rather odd-looking house effects in his article this week:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/the-swing/2013/aug/10/labor-at-post-gillard-lows
He reckons virtually everyone skews Labor.
I don’t.
Tony Abbott managed to outspend the then Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, when it comes to:
Travelling Allowance – more than 3 times
Office Facilities – more than 4.3 times
Office Admin Costs – more than 2.3 times
Telecommunications – more than 11.3 times
He has little regard for our taxes as he spends them on himself and his office
Strange thing this morning. Somebody buzzed the intercom and said they were from Morgan Research- “doing a survey on political views and other things. ” 45 Minutes long offering a gift voucher as incentive.
Surely this wasn’t a Morgan poll? In one of the country’s safest ALP seats? Sydney? Can anybody shed light on this? I didn’t do it, I had to go out.
I get this sinking feeling that Rudd is gonna get done over tomorrow night and Abbott will come out looking like Ghandi and Mandela all rolled in to one super being.
If I’m wrong, I’ll stop posting.
So Abbott wants to abolish the ETS, but let the people keep the carbon price compensation?
So where is Abbott going to find the funds to allow the compensation to stand?
The only answer is that the Coalition MUST be planning to increase the rate of the GST.
So in effect, we are going to swap the top 500 polluters paying a carbon price FOR everyone paying more for goods and services.
That sucks!
Was out mingling with the Folk of Maroochydore this AM, giving out bits of paper for Elaine Hughes.
Better than normal response in a pro LNP area in my opinion. Off to somewhere else tomorrow. 😉
Wouldn’t we all love to be getting paid while doing our charity work like Abbott does during his “work week” plus claiming travel and accommodation allowances
Travelling Allowance – more than 3 times than former PM Gillard
[If I’m wrong, I’ll stop posting.]
Yaywhippyhoo
[If I’m wrong, I’ll stop posting.]
Don’t be silly.
Centre
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 2:41 pm | Permalink
So Abbott wants to abolish the ETS, but let the people keep the carbon price compensation?
—————————————————–
$4.5billion a year
plus company tax cut he’s up the $9.5 billion
Plus Direct Action
over 3 years around $20+ billion
without showing where he will save the money
[Can anybody shed light on this?]
Its Morgan earning their bread and butter. The survey would have been about dozens of things, from Coffee to Radio, the politics is a sideshow.
Centre, nothing else makes sense. I just don’t know where the LNP will get the money for their proposed spending. Either they don’t do any of it, or they increase the amount or coverage of the GST, it’s the only way.
I’m interested in what effect this might have on our economy. Do any of the economists on here know?
AA
[Travelling Allowance – more than 3 times than former PM Gillard]
And, I think, that doesn’t count the TA for his staff.
Oh sorry, he had a dodgy $5billion in savings in his budget reply
Rudd has just got to lay it out on the economy, costings, GST, NBN, health, interest rates, infrastructure and education to win the debate.
Centre
Look on the brighter side, if I’m right I’ll stop because there’ll absolutely no point anymore in venting my spleen.
The ALP have chosen so far to campaign lie girl guides on a biscuit run.
It becomes clearer by the hour that they’ve had enough of government and want the nice people from the Liberal party and the Farmers Union to have a turn.
But only for 12 or so years then they want it back.
My rough calculation of KAP preferences from the state election was that 33% went to the LNP, 17% went for Labor and 50% exhausted. However, a ballot paper study by the ECQ suggests the exhaust rate should maybe be a bit higher (based on 10 seats, it had 54% voting one only and 8% doing a “partial” allocation).
[Rosemour or Less
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 2:40 pm | Permalink
I get this sinking feeling that Rudd is gonna get done over tomorrow night and Abbott will come out looking like Ghandi and Mandela all rolled in to one super being.
If I’m wrong, I’ll stop posting.]
For Christ sake don’t wait till then. Just stop now. Your defeatism is giving us all the shits.
liyana
I am worried that Abbott austerity or an increase in GST will definitely have a detrimental effect on the economy.
Just had to check twice centrebet was 4.50 labor this morning now 5.50. Rudd and labor on the nose. Come back Julia…
Darn
Your lots happy go lucky she’ll be right if we just keeping saying the MSM are agin us and nudge nudge wink wink Abbott’s toast stuff gives me the shits.
[Strange thing this morning. Somebody buzzed the intercom and said they were from Morgan Research- “doing a survey on political views and other things. ” 45 Minutes long offering a gift voucher as incentive.
Surely this wasn’t a Morgan poll? In one of the country’s safest ALP seats? Sydney? Can anybody shed light on this? I didn’t do it, I had to go out.]
As Ruawake says, this is the meat and potatoes (bread and butter if you prefer) of Morgan’s business. They do face-to-face surveying for their market research work, and throw in a question on voting intention for good measure. Had you participated, you would have been part of the multi-mode poll result that Morgan will publish on Monday afternoon. There’s no reason why they shouldn’t be polling safe seats (and indeed, every reason why they should be) in a national poll.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@824
Might not have made this clear enough – I reckon 60/40 for KAP and PUP combined. I suspect PUP over 60/40 and KAP a bit under.
There is usable Queensland state election data on KAP flows, though I’ve only looked at some electorates and not yet all of them, and although Optional Preferential and the presence of Green candidates ahead of KAP ones in the cutup can complicate things.
There is also data on Katter’s own preferences in 2010. They split 70:30 to Coalition albeit in a 62:38 electorate.
For the Reps, that would depend on how many KAP voters followed the card. It’s hard to predict the loyalty level of KAP voters. For Qld specifically, it could improve the ALP 2PP by say 1-1.5 points.
Anyone still calling landlines has to either weight responses from young age groups or else keep calling to specifically get enough responses in that age bracket. Weighting of young age groups is a bit of an issue because it is hard to be certain that those who answer the phone are not politically unrepresentative of their bracket.
I assume you mean distributes. The same as anyone else; by last election preferences (about three to one).
AA
Rudd must get Abbott to explain where he will find the money!
Darn @ 843
Well said.
‘Just had to check twice centrebet was 4.50 labor this morning now 5.50. Rudd and labor on the nose. Come back Julia…’
Here,I’ll give it a try.
There’sstill 4 weeks to go,people will see how useless Abbott is any day now. She’ll be right. The ALP are right on target.
Yeeha!