Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition; Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition in Queensland

The first Nielsen result of the campaign propels the BludgerTrack poll aggregate another notch further in the Coalition’s direction, while a Galaxy poll from Queensland confirms the evaporation there of a Ruddstoration boost which presumably sent Labor to Peter Beattie’s door.

GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen, which has unusually conducted its poll from Tuesday to Thursday for publication at the start of the weekend (UPDATE: Ghost indicates that this is its normal practice during election campaigns), shows the Coalition with a lead of 52-48 after a 50-50 result in the previous poll of four weeks ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 37% and the Coalition up two to 46%, with the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings are down, though not quite to the same degree as in Newspoll: his approval is down three to 48% with disapproval up four to 47%. Tony Abbott on the other hand scores his best personal results from Nielsen since July 2011, his approval up four to 45% and disapproval down four to 52%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 55-41 to 50-42. The poll had Nielsen’s usual large sample of 1400. Full results including state breakdowns here.

Also through this evening is a Galaxy poll showing the Coalition with a 56-44 lead in Queensland, compared with 55.1-44.9 at the 2010 election. Annoyingly, the only detail on the primary vote provided in the Courier-Mail is that Labor is on 34%, compared with 33.6% in 2010. We are however provided with the following results from largely uninteresting attitudinal questions: 50% said Rudd had a good or very good understanding of issues that affect Queensland compared with 36%, with the respective poor ratings at 25% and 29%; 10% said they were more likely to vote for Rudd because he was a Queenslander; 35% of respondents over all, and 65% of Labor supporters, said they expected Labor to win. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800 respondents. (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens on 7%, Katter’s Australian Party on 4% and the Palmer United Party on 4%).

The above results have been used to update BludgerTrack, causing it to tick two seats in the Coalition’s direction with gains in Victoria and Queensland. I’m pleased to say that the tracker has done a good job of picking up Labor’s evident deflation in the latter state, with an early brace of projected Labor gains after Kevin Rudd’s return steady evaporating and now putting them very slightly in negative territory. It would not of course have picked up any Peter Beattie dividend for Labor as of yet. Less happily, the projection insists on granting Labor an implausible third seat in Western Australia. While the two most marginal Liberal seats of Hasluck and Swan could well be in the Labor firing line, the model is very likely overestimating their chances in Canning off the back of the boost Labor received there in 2010 from Alannah MacTiernan’s candidacy.

Finally, The Guardian reports on an automated phone poll conducted in Anthony Albanese’s inner-city Sydney electorate of Grayndler by Lonergan Research, who I have not encountered previously but whose work appears well regarded by those who have. It turns in a highly plausible set of numbers with Albanese at 47% on the primary vote (compared with 46.1% in 2010), the Liberals at 28% (up from 24.2%) and the Greens at 22% (down from 25.9%). A 66% two-party preferred vote for Labor is provided in the poll, which presumably means versus the Liberals (the Greens made it to the final count in 2010, leaving Albanese with a margin of 4.2%), although I’m not clear if this is previous-election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It seems respondents were not asked about preferences, so evidently it’s the former). The sample is a hefty 966.

UPDATE: Now we have a ReachTEL poll, conducted today, showing the Coalition leading 53-47. More to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,067 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition; Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition in Queensland”

Comments Page 1 of 22
1 2 22
  1. That’s the budget update impact

    It’s hurt perceptions of the ALP on the economy which is part of what Rudd recovered when he took over

  2. This is before Beattie effect which will have dragged Labor down another point so we’re at 53-47 to Libs as I predicted when the Rudd rebirth fiasco began.

  3. Zoidlord it seems to confirm the small move back to the Coalition showing up in most other polling. Very interested to see the state break-ups.

  4. [This is before Beattie effect which will have dragged Labor down another point so we’re at 53-47 to Libs as I predicted when the Rudd rebirth fiasco began.]

    58-42 to the Coalition when you include the “Coalition hack arbitrarily changing the numbers” factor.

  5. The first Nielsen of the last campaign was 54-46 to Labor … If that gives any perspective (different circumstances of course)

  6. “If the Trend is your Friend”
    There is no such thing as a trend or momentum. They are inventions of people trying to sell news.

  7. Hmm. not good but is this within MOE? But long bow to think after 12 years of dumbing down.. then 6 years or peddling butshit that any sanity would pevail. So presto.. see ya to australian society as we know it, it appears. I wish rups mum had lived to see this

  8. 5-8 seats that both liberal/labor sources been saying via internal polling could be true then.

    So most likely marginal seats at play.

  9. All you leftie fools who were in denial should realise that you are BONED. Welcome to the second week which corresponds to the stage of ANGER…

  10. “Bullshit”
    I’ll tell you why you’re wrong. For there to be trend, the majority of people would have to pay attention to polls. They don’t.

  11. I’ve never seen someone spontaneously combust.. will be great watching Rudd election night.

    “But everyone f’ing LOVES ME!! What happened!! This is a travesty!”

  12. It’s only becomes a trend if it continues to move towards the Coalition. At present it is at best a small move back to the Coalition. I doubt Abbott is looking at carpets for the Lodge yet but we can say confidently that the trend back to Labor has ended for now.

  13. [Although I find it amusing that Sean is advocating trends now, after rubbishing them just a few weeks ago when they weren’t favouring his political opinions.]

    No my problem with the Labor Trend spotters wasn’t that trends don’t exist, just that Labor supporters seem to pick and choose what week it starts from.

    Example: Last week Labor was on 48% now we are on 50%, omg we are so gonna win!

    While completely ignoring the other 3 years of data that shows Labor is going to lose

  14. Labor’s primary vote has dropped in the last 7 polls.


    That’s a trend.

  15. [The first Nielsen of the last campaign was 54-46 to Labor … If that gives any perspective (different circumstances of course)]

    A valid point. Also, 4 weeks to go. 52-48 is, by no means, insurmountable.

    However, Labor do need to lift its game. This election could run away from them.

  16. In Victoria, the preferences of Save the Planet Party, a single issue party focussed on climate change, may be crucial to the final result in Melbourne and Corangamite.

    Interview with Save the Planet Party candidate Philip Sutton in Batman:

    Interview with Greens Party candidate Lloyd Davies in Corangamite:

  17. Zoidlord – ya can’t pick and choose the polls you look at!

    ‘But that was just a bad week’ does not cur it.

    You can’t have a bad week in a 5 week campaign.

  18. [In Victoria, the preferences of Save the Planet Party, a single issue party focussed on climate change, may be crucial to the final result in Melbourne and Corangamite.]

    So might anything.

Comments Page 1 of 22
1 2 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *