Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition; Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition in Queensland

The first Nielsen result of the campaign propels the BludgerTrack poll aggregate another notch further in the Coalition’s direction, while a Galaxy poll from Queensland confirms the evaporation there of a Ruddstoration boost which presumably sent Labor to Peter Beattie’s door.

GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen, which has unusually conducted its poll from Tuesday to Thursday for publication at the start of the weekend (UPDATE: Ghost indicates that this is its normal practice during election campaigns), shows the Coalition with a lead of 52-48 after a 50-50 result in the previous poll of four weeks ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 37% and the Coalition up two to 46%, with the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings are down, though not quite to the same degree as in Newspoll: his approval is down three to 48% with disapproval up four to 47%. Tony Abbott on the other hand scores his best personal results from Nielsen since July 2011, his approval up four to 45% and disapproval down four to 52%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 55-41 to 50-42. The poll had Nielsen’s usual large sample of 1400. Full results including state breakdowns here.

Also through this evening is a Galaxy poll showing the Coalition with a 56-44 lead in Queensland, compared with 55.1-44.9 at the 2010 election. Annoyingly, the only detail on the primary vote provided in the Courier-Mail is that Labor is on 34%, compared with 33.6% in 2010. We are however provided with the following results from largely uninteresting attitudinal questions: 50% said Rudd had a good or very good understanding of issues that affect Queensland compared with 36%, with the respective poor ratings at 25% and 29%; 10% said they were more likely to vote for Rudd because he was a Queenslander; 35% of respondents over all, and 65% of Labor supporters, said they expected Labor to win. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800 respondents. (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens on 7%, Katter’s Australian Party on 4% and the Palmer United Party on 4%).

The above results have been used to update BludgerTrack, causing it to tick two seats in the Coalition’s direction with gains in Victoria and Queensland. I’m pleased to say that the tracker has done a good job of picking up Labor’s evident deflation in the latter state, with an early brace of projected Labor gains after Kevin Rudd’s return steady evaporating and now putting them very slightly in negative territory. It would not of course have picked up any Peter Beattie dividend for Labor as of yet. Less happily, the projection insists on granting Labor an implausible third seat in Western Australia. While the two most marginal Liberal seats of Hasluck and Swan could well be in the Labor firing line, the model is very likely overestimating their chances in Canning off the back of the boost Labor received there in 2010 from Alannah MacTiernan’s candidacy.

Finally, The Guardian reports on an automated phone poll conducted in Anthony Albanese’s inner-city Sydney electorate of Grayndler by Lonergan Research, who I have not encountered previously but whose work appears well regarded by those who have. It turns in a highly plausible set of numbers with Albanese at 47% on the primary vote (compared with 46.1% in 2010), the Liberals at 28% (up from 24.2%) and the Greens at 22% (down from 25.9%). A 66% two-party preferred vote for Labor is provided in the poll, which presumably means versus the Liberals (the Greens made it to the final count in 2010, leaving Albanese with a margin of 4.2%), although I’m not clear if this is previous-election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It seems respondents were not asked about preferences, so evidently it’s the former). The sample is a hefty 966.

UPDATE: Now we have a ReachTEL poll, conducted today, showing the Coalition leading 53-47. More to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,067 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition; Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition in Queensland”

Comments Page 2 of 22
1 2 3 22
  1. chdog/foxtelmurdoch-backlash-punters-revenge/5770087923385


    CANCELLATION OF FOXTEL SUBSCRIPTION – ring 132 432 (rural) or 131 999 (city)

    Dear Watchdogs,

    I rang Foxtel at 7am this morning to cancel my 15 year old subscription with Foxtel. I had to access Foxtel (formerly Austar) all those years ago due to living in a rural communication black spot area. It was the only solution at the time to my television reception problems which were basically non existent. I now have a free to air satellite dish, so Foxtel is a luxury rather than a necessity.

    I chewed the ear off the young man who answered my call for 3/4 of an hour, making sure Foxtel knew the reasons I was cancelling was due to Murdoch/News Corps behaviour & also the behaviour of most of the commentators on the Skynews channel.

    I also lodged an official complaint, which the young man assured me would be given sincere attention. Foxtel are in what the young man said was “damage control”. It appears I am not the only person actively pursuing the cancellation of their subscription.

  2. I am hoping for a Greens HoR primary vote of 8-9% on polling day. In a polarised election, it is inevitable that the Greens will suffer a dip in their vote. Though it will be interesting to see if their Senate vote is higher (usual case), and if so, by how much.

    But that’s okay, we are in in for the long haul 🙂

  3. [All you leftie fools who were in denial should realise that you are BONED. Welcome to the second week which corresponds to the stage of ANGER]

    The stage of IDIOCY on the other hand is permanent.

  4. William
    [Dave’s not here, man.]
    What have you done with Dave? So is he gonna stand me up on 7 Sept? Gary .. it may be just the two of us after all.

  5. Let’s keep this in perspective folks. Three months ago we would have killed for a 52-48 poll at this stage. Abbott doesn’t realise it yet but win or lose he is tightly under control – just the way a bastard like that needs to be.

  6. Greens back in to double figures, still waiting for the crash that some on here keep predicting!

    Still far from over, but Labor need to land some heavy blows to regain the momentum. Do we know when this poll was taken? My guess would be Wednesday night/Thursday night.

    Labor was always going to take a hit from the budget statement. It just gave so much ammunition for the Coalition and their media cheer squad. Whether they can recover that in the next couple of weeks is difficult to tell. Not over, but trouble.

  7. rex douglas

    are u stupid

    howard was further than this behind than this re LATHAM’


    how dare u say bye rudd one week’
    and do people believe polls with what is happeing with
    the media

    who owns this one

  8. One qualitative thing I have observed just from seeing the Nine news update during the cricket was how the coverage was “Abbott did this, Abbott did that… meanwhile, Rudd…”

    Abbott is leading the headlines. And not negatively. This is something that can’t get out of control.

  9. Look, this is easy: the budget update last week was really sharp news and it has impacted perceptions of Rudd on economic management

    The question is whether he can turn it round. One would suspect he’ll be hammering on economic management for the rest of the campaign. The difference this time is people’s ears are still open (unlike with Gillard when they were closed)

  10. Howard’s government normally started its re-election campaigns slightly behind before eventually pulling through to win, as did Keating in 1993. There is still around a month to go until polling day and while the Coalition now have a narrow lead, there is still all to play for,and the gap has narrowed considerably since Rudd took over. The move to the Coalition is all because of the initial poor economic news, this week’s news of the interest rate cut and stable unemployment figures should have halted that momentum. A win for Rudd in the debate on Sunday could move the momentum the ALP’s way. Abbott is clearly the favourite at present, as even Rudd has admitted, but then so was John Hewson in 1993 until election night!

  11. I think people who a month ago were expecting a victory for us will have some time to sober up.

    It’s still possible, but there is no longer anyone anticipating it. At least I’d hope not.

  12. Rudd is getting more desperate every week.

    This week it is a made up GST scare campaign which is clearly false to anyone with 2 brain cells to rub together.

    Then we have an attack on the Murdoch media… while probably accurate to an extent is the equivalent of slitting your own throat.

    What will next week bring?

  13. My Say @ 52

    You may not have noticed that I too complained to Foxtel.

    I am still awaiting their return call. In vain.

    I cannot cancel as the subscription is not mine.

    My views were made clear.

    My request to speak to a manager was not put through, however, the relayed response was that Murdoch was a minority shareholder. Nonsense, said I, adding that my opinion of Murdoch is shared by many.

    Whatever, I have added my own comments to any website I can find re Foxtel, as a line of unrest.

  14. GloryC things like the GST porky, the confrontation with Murdoch and the Beattie appointment just have a hint of desperation. I’d say Hawker is back in control. That worked a treat in NSW and QLD.

  15. Spur
    [unlike with Gillard when they were closed]
    On PB most posters were still hanging on her every word to the end. I think that the same switch-off is starting to happen with Rudd in the wider community. He’s not controlling the debate and is all over the place: Beattie, Murdoch, Vegemite.

  16. 52-48 is not that bad.

    However, the situation we are in is:
    52-48 in Newspoll, Neilsen and ReachTel
    51-49 in Essential
    54-46 in ReachTel Forde poll
    49.5 in the Morgan multi

    So it is pretty clear that there has been a small swing to the LNP from 2010 and the ALP need a small swing to them.

    Even more important is that the only ALP hope is Rudd’s personal popularity…..and he is rapidly losing any advantage over Abbott.

  17. [glory u are the weekest link her pis off]

    You know what? How about you piss off? Every time somebody says something that doesn’t reinforce your precious pro-Labor sensibilities, you say shit like this.

    This board is for political discussion, not making Labor hacks feel better about themselves. Glory hasn’t said anything at all that is offensive or unreasonable.

  18. David – hint of desperation? I’d stay a stink of desperation.

    Why attack the opposition on taxes? It lets them remind everyone of your own taxes!

    I have not seen ONE election ad about Better Schools, or specific NBN.

    The GST ads were rubbish. Negative ads only work when it stirs up what people already feel.

    No one feels Abbott will raise the GST, so it looks desperate.

    And the Beattie move, whilst he will likely win Forde, is panic personified.

  19. Preferred PM +8 and rapidly falling in a campaign which has been all about personality rather than policy!
    Rudd is facing a monumental thrashing.

  20. [glory u are the weekest link her pis off]

    And you are among the most vituperative.

    Why don’t you have an early night if you can’t stand opinions you disagree with.

  21. [A valid point. Also, 4 weeks to go. 52-48 is, by no means, insurmountable.
    However, Labor do need to lift its game. This election could run away from them.]

    Yep. Hopefully this will shift the ALP into a higher gear – run some quality ads.
    Abbott currently in front.

    GRNs doing well. ALP needs to lift.

  22. Labor need to stop allowing their campaign to be side tracked. Hammer away for the next four weeks on economic management, low interest rates, education and what the Coalition intend to cut. The GST stuff looks desperate to be honest, where as everybody knows the Coalition are planning large cuts, so hammer away at people having the right to know where they are planning to cut.

  23. Carey Moore@89

    glory u are the weekest link her pis off

    You know what? How about you piss off? Every time somebody says something that doesn’t reinforce your precious pro-Labor sensibilities, you say shit like this.

    This board is for political discussion, not making Labor hacks feel better about themselves. Glory hasn’t said anything at all that is offensive or unreasonable.

    Oi. Leave mysay alone.

  24. [Umm no, they are all separate polls, all within the MOE.]

    If there are a hundred polls all showing a 52-48 win and each individual poll has a MOE of 3%, the party on 52% is much more likely to win than if only one poll has them on 52%.

    That is the advantage of analyses like Bludgertrack and what Nate Silver does so well in USA.

Comments Page 2 of 22
1 2 3 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *