GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen, which has unusually conducted its poll from Tuesday to Thursday for publication at the start of the weekend (UPDATE: Ghost indicates that this is its normal practice during election campaigns), shows the Coalition with a lead of 52-48 after a 50-50 result in the previous poll of four weeks ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 37% and the Coalition up two to 46%, with the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings are down, though not quite to the same degree as in Newspoll: his approval is down three to 48% with disapproval up four to 47%. Tony Abbott on the other hand scores his best personal results from Nielsen since July 2011, his approval up four to 45% and disapproval down four to 52%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 55-41 to 50-42. The poll had Nielsen’s usual large sample of 1400. Full results including state breakdowns here.
Also through this evening is a Galaxy poll showing the Coalition with a 56-44 lead in Queensland, compared with 55.1-44.9 at the 2010 election. Annoyingly, the only detail on the primary vote provided in the Courier-Mail is that Labor is on 34%, compared with 33.6% in 2010. We are however provided with the following results from largely uninteresting attitudinal questions: 50% said Rudd had a good or very good understanding of issues that affect Queensland compared with 36%, with the respective poor ratings at 25% and 29%; 10% said they were more likely to vote for Rudd because he was a Queenslander; 35% of respondents over all, and 65% of Labor supporters, said they expected Labor to win. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800 respondents. (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens on 7%, Katter’s Australian Party on 4% and the Palmer United Party on 4%).
The above results have been used to update BludgerTrack, causing it to tick two seats in the Coalition’s direction with gains in Victoria and Queensland. I’m pleased to say that the tracker has done a good job of picking up Labor’s evident deflation in the latter state, with an early brace of projected Labor gains after Kevin Rudd’s return steady evaporating and now putting them very slightly in negative territory. It would not of course have picked up any Peter Beattie dividend for Labor as of yet. Less happily, the projection insists on granting Labor an implausible third seat in Western Australia. While the two most marginal Liberal seats of Hasluck and Swan could well be in the Labor firing line, the model is very likely overestimating their chances in Canning off the back of the boost Labor received there in 2010 from Alannah MacTiernan’s candidacy.
Finally, The Guardian reports on an automated phone poll conducted in Anthony Albanese’s inner-city Sydney electorate of Grayndler by Lonergan Research, who I have not encountered previously but whose work appears well regarded by those who have. It turns in a highly plausible set of numbers with Albanese at 47% on the primary vote (compared with 46.1% in 2010), the Liberals at 28% (up from 24.2%) and the Greens at 22% (down from 25.9%). A 66% two-party preferred vote for Labor is provided in the poll, which presumably means versus the Liberals (the Greens made it to the final count in 2010, leaving Albanese with a margin of 4.2%), although I’m not clear if this is previous-election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It seems respondents were not asked about preferences, so evidently it’s the former). The sample is a hefty 966.
UPDATE: Now we have a ReachTEL poll, conducted today, showing the Coalition leading 53-47. More to follow.
thanks guytaur @ 748
“@AlboMP: About to do media conference at Sydney Airport about the front page Daily Telegraph story about planes and MPs that didn’t actually exist”
I honestly think that Rudd should openly and publicly call the Murdoch media for what it is – a mouthpiece for the Coalition.
Rudd should take on Murdoch all the way, discredit the old bastard.
Mick77
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 12:47 pm | Permalink
AA – yes millions of $$ rorted if I recall (NOT)
—————————————————-
facetiousness does not do you justice.
it was thousands particularly when the travel and accommodation claims for his “charity” bike rides are also considered.
certainly a lot more than Slipper claimed, and he didn’t try to claim for a book promotion
[Anthony Albanese @AlboMP 5m
About to do media conference at Sydney Airport about the front page Daily Telegraph story about planes and MPs that didn’t actually exist]
http://youtu.be/VWBsPw8MtbQ
Bishop gaffe
Confessions
24 not taking live at this time from what has been said.
So we just get NPC Ged Kearney repeat
I don’t begrudge Julia one red cent of ‘ex Prime Minister pension’ considering all the good she tried to do, plus all the misogynist crap she put up with from fiberals, shock jocks and the like, but I will forever begrudge the monkey achieving the same perks.
Albo on SkyNews giving the despicable Ma Moore-Wilton a huge serve over the erroneous Daily Terror front page.
guytaur @ 752
Which network is taking his presser?
Centre
SkyNews
On March 3, 2013, Tony Abbott stated the following:
They’ve actually cut more than $250 million dollars out of the AFP.
Tony Negus, the AFP Commissioner, states:
In the last five years I think our budget’s gone up around $300 million dollars.
AA
When & where is the court case on Abbott’s travel expenses?
The fact is that Tony Abbott was prepared to do deals, particularly with the four Independents – Andrew Wilkie, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Bob Katter.
These are the deals that I know of:
Andrew Wilkie:
A doubling of Australia’s humanitarian intake of asylum seekers.
$1 billion to build a teaching hospital in Hobart.
Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott:
A permanent $1 billion-a-year regional infrastructure package.
Bob Katter:
Billions in tax concessions in “selected” remote regions to boost their economies.
A promise to introduce laws mandating ethanol in petrol.
And then of course, there was the key promise to all the Independents that he would go the full term of Government without calling an early election.
The truth of that matter is that Tony Abbott was prepared to deals with the Independents.
And I am sure that faced with a similar situation to the 2010 Federal Election, Tony Abbott will more than likely try and make deals with them again.
After all, it was Tony Abbott that said: “I am a politician and I will take votes wherever I can get them and I’m happy to get preferences as well – green and other preferences”.
So what’s changed??? Now saying he won’t do deals..inconsistent and another back flip. His word cannot be trusted
Albo showering indisputable FACTS at Max the Axe and the press.
On the afternoon of January 30, 2013, Tony Abbott appeared at a hastily convened press conference in response to the announcement by Julia Gillard that there would be an election on September 14, 2013.
This is what Tony Abbott said:
It’s notable that apart from actually naming the election date, the only real statement in the Prime Ministers Press Club speech was the statement that the Australian people needed to pay more tax. That you, the people, are not taxed enough.
This was a blatant lie.
At no stage during Julia Gillard’s National Press Club Speech, did she say “that the Australian people needed to pay more tax” or “the people, are not taxed enough”.
Tony Abbott didn’t stick around at the end of his hastily convened press conference to answer any questions – instead, he referred all questions to Joe Hockey and Christopher Pyne.
Perhaps he knew that the media might call him on his lies.
Labor can ask Abbott to guarantee that it will not touch the GST in any way.
Labor can and must call out Newscorpse on its campaign, it isn’t positive stuff but essential since it is a major headwind for the next 4 weeks.
Hey Mick77,
Just for you
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wT9XS_TvzQ
‘But he said it on the ABC, so the footage cannot be used, for political advertising, without Abbott`s approval.’
The transcript can be used.
And if Abbott won’t allow the footage to be used that’d be priceless. The ALP could run on this for weeks.
There are literally millions of people who have never heard of the interview.
It’d also make a great billboard.
mike hilliard 638 Had to take patient to the doctor.
‘Julia deserves a better house than that. A trained eye can see it’s nothing special or over the top. I think she should reconsider the mock rock look’.
I too dislike that style. Standard pale imitation of Frank Lloyd Wright. They are everywhere. Taken over from Tuscan villas. Demolitions of the future.
“@lipporocks: Albo: there were no flights into Sydney after 11pm on Tuesday night (in response to daily tele front page) @SkyNewsAust”
“@lipporocks: Albo: And there were no politicians on those non-flights that did not exist”
“@lipporocks: Albo: there were no flights into Sydney after 11pm on Tuesday night (in response to daily tele front page) @SkyNewsAust”
“@lipporocks: Albo: And there were no politicians on those non-flights that did not exist”
Bob Ellis on the Nielsen and Galaxy polls.
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/the-nielsen-and-galaxy-polls/
😆
Julia and Tim are not exactly aesthetes.
They’re both plain and simple folk who love their foota and soapies. The house is wholly appropriate for their tastes.
Mick77
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 1:08 pm | Permalink
AA
When & where is the court case on Abbott’s travel expenses?
—————————————————-
Now sinking lower than being facetious.
If you can’t see that claiming travel allowances while claiming that the bike rides are some sort of self sacrificing altruism act is a deception and morally wrong then you are no doubt among those who think do things like rorting FBT or taking taxpayer money under deceptive circumstances is all OK
Rosemour – Tim will go back to selling ‘hair products’ out of the garage. 😆
(Pool fencing requirement not a happening thing in SA?)
Breaking News
After reading Ellis’s piece I feel a lot better!!
Wow. Bob Ellis convinced last nights polls are a bunch of crap.
Interesting. What do the psephos make of Bobs, er, views?
When asked why Labor are behind in the polls, why not just say that the Murdoch media is very powerful and they want Abbott to win for their own selfish interests.
It would cut through 😎
I just got Reachtelled for the first time. They asked party preference, PPM, which party did I think would win, best party to deal wtih asylum seekers and under which party would I be better off in 12 months time.
Soc
[and under which party would I be better off in 12 months time.]
I assume the answer to this bit was neither.
Rosemour
[And if Abbott won’t allow the footage to be used that’d be priceless. The ALP could run on this for weeks.]
Not sure about that “Abbott approval” bit. I thought it’s the ABC that wouldn’t let it be used.
Tony Abbott and his Gardasil lie
On November 15, 2012, Tony Abbott tweeted:
While it is certainly true that Tony Abbott was the Health Minister when Gardasil was approved, it was actually the then Prime Minister, John Howard, that ensured that Gardasil was approved – not Tony Abbott.
Tony Abbott rejected the Gardasil vaccine and claimed that the vaccine might actually result in “an increase in cancer rates”.
Tony Abbott also stated “I won’t be rushing out to get my daughters vaccinated, maybe that’s because I’m a cruel, callow, callous, heartless bastard but, look, I won’t be”.
John Howard was forced to step in and overrule Tony Abbott.
SeweRoo can’t sack Gough Whitlam this time so he has sacked Goughs Son in Law Kim Williams http://tinyurl.com/kckoxn5
I love Bobs views. 🙂
In December 2009, Tony Abbott promised that there would be no new taxes.
Tony Abbott: “Whether it’s a stealth tax (like) the emissions trading scheme, whether it’s an upfront and straight forward tax like a carbon tax, there will not be any new taxes as part of the Coalition’s policies”.
Source: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/abbotts-sales-pitch/story-e6frf7jo-1225…
Source: http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/LatestNews/InterviewTranscripts/tabid/85/ar…
In March 2010, on International Women’s Day, Tony Abbott announced his Paid Parental Leave scheme, which is to be funded by a 1.5% levy (tax) on businesses with a taxable income of $5 million or more.
This new tax is expected to cost businesses over $3.3 billion per year (up from the original $2.7 billion announced by the Coalition).
During a doorstop interview, Tony Abbott was asked:
Question: Mr Abbott, if you’d had this in your mind for so long, why did you give a promise only a few weeks ago not to have any new or increased taxes?
Tony Abbott: That’s a fair question, Michelle. But sometimes, for very important reasons, for very good reasons, you have to make departures from principle.
Source: http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/LatestNews/InterviewTranscripts/tabid/85/ar…
And then of course, we have Tony Abbott’s infamous “scripted remarks” statement on the 7.30 Report on the 17th of May, 2010.
Kerry O’Brien: No, but I’d like you to explain it. Tony Abbott feels with conviction we will not have a new tax in any way, shape or form, we won’t have a new tax; a month later, you do.
Tony Abbott: Well, again Kerry, I know politicians are gonna be judged on everything they say, but sometimes, in the heat of discussion, you go a little bit further than you would if it was an absolutely calm, considered, prepared, scripted remark, which is one of the reasons why the statements that need to be taken absolutely as gospel truth is those carefully prepared scripted remarks.
People like Ellis continue to reference the Howard govt’s win in 1998 with 49% of the 2PP.
Yes, yes, but what they fail to mention is that the coalition was elected at the previous election with a whopping majority of lower house seats. Thus they were able to shed 2PP vote but still hang onto a majority of seats in order to retain govt.
Tony Abbott says any attacking peoples integrity about a tax is cheap political smear.
Yes, but Tony [Jones] that is a really cheap political smear and this attempt to attack people’s integrity on the basis of whether they’re for or against a tax. I think that’s the kind of political argy-bargy which understandably gives all politicians a bad name. It’s just a bit low and it shouldn’t happen.
Did I miss something? Was all that insulting, demeaning language used against Gillard by Abbott just a dream that I had?
This still sums it all up for me:
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 19h
Think the key lesson we (progressive politics) should all learn from the last few years across governments. Get ruthless or go home]
I think we all get carried away with polls. Admittedly, if Labor had poll numbers like today’s Neilsen, we would be gloating.
However, four weeks to go, it is still a close race, and I’m sure more to come out about Murdoch’s behaviour could be a plus.
Labor should concentrate on pushing their positive agenda such as Education, NBN, and the consequences that would follow with Abbott in power.
Get out there and work for the party, if you can. It gets the adrenelin pumping.
Where is this master campaigner Rudd we’ve been promised ??
He better show up pretty damn quick as he’s getting his a**e handed to him by the conservatives.
Don’t tell all the white-anting and destabilising these past 3 years will amount to nothing ??
guytaur
[24 not taking live at this time from what has been said.
So we just get NPC Ged Kearney repeat]
It’s only a part-time 24-hr news channel.
In case anyone was wondering, the primary votes for the Galaxy poll were 34% Labor, 48% LNP, 7% Greens and 4% apiece for KAP and PUP.
Did I miss something? Was all that insulting, demeaning language used against Gillard by Abbott just a dream that I had?
I had the same dream Aussie.
Rex
[the white-anting and destabilising these past 3 years]
If they don’t understand anything else about current politics the general public understand this bit.
The two choices are abysmal.
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 19h
Think the key lesson we (progressive politics) should all learn from the last few years across governments. Get ruthless or go home]
Exactly– especially since Newscorpses have changed the rules of engagement in the print media.
Standard electioneering hoping that people will listen care and change their vote wont work at all.
Rudd had it right when he attacked Abbott’s AS policy escalating it as a diplomatic and physical risk to Aust. It got attention and caused people to pay attention.
793
Since KAP and PUP were not around at the last election, how are their preferences distributed? Since that is 8% of the vote, it is significant.
mikehilliard
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 2:01 pm | Permalink
Did I miss something? Was all that insulting, demeaning language used against Gillard by Abbott just a dream that I had?
I had the same dream Aussie.
——————————————————
What are the odds….two people having the same dream??
Tony Abbott on Compulsory Paid Maternity Leave
Voluntary paid maternity leave, yes. Compulsory paid maternity leave, over this government’s dead body, frankly. It just won’t happen.
So what’s this Paid Parental Leave thing that increases business tax by 1.5% and will increase the cost of living and push up inflation?
Hockey will also get his wish that interest rates will go up.
CTari – The two choices are abysmal.
We had a good PM but nobody wanted her. The voters therefore prefer abysmal & for some (majority?) the worse the better hence Abbott’s theoretical lead.
Australian’s in general have no taste & never will have. A simple drive through Sydney’s western suburbia littered with brick venereal development & characterised by an urban planning regime geared around driving everywhere says it all. A country of truly appalling short sightedness & greed driven decision makers.