GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen, which has unusually conducted its poll from Tuesday to Thursday for publication at the start of the weekend (UPDATE: Ghost indicates that this is its normal practice during election campaigns), shows the Coalition with a lead of 52-48 after a 50-50 result in the previous poll of four weeks ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 37% and the Coalition up two to 46%, with the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings are down, though not quite to the same degree as in Newspoll: his approval is down three to 48% with disapproval up four to 47%. Tony Abbott on the other hand scores his best personal results from Nielsen since July 2011, his approval up four to 45% and disapproval down four to 52%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 55-41 to 50-42. The poll had Nielsen’s usual large sample of 1400. Full results including state breakdowns here.
Also through this evening is a Galaxy poll showing the Coalition with a 56-44 lead in Queensland, compared with 55.1-44.9 at the 2010 election. Annoyingly, the only detail on the primary vote provided in the Courier-Mail is that Labor is on 34%, compared with 33.6% in 2010. We are however provided with the following results from largely uninteresting attitudinal questions: 50% said Rudd had a good or very good understanding of issues that affect Queensland compared with 36%, with the respective poor ratings at 25% and 29%; 10% said they were more likely to vote for Rudd because he was a Queenslander; 35% of respondents over all, and 65% of Labor supporters, said they expected Labor to win. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800 respondents. (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens on 7%, Katter’s Australian Party on 4% and the Palmer United Party on 4%).
The above results have been used to update BludgerTrack, causing it to tick two seats in the Coalition’s direction with gains in Victoria and Queensland. I’m pleased to say that the tracker has done a good job of picking up Labor’s evident deflation in the latter state, with an early brace of projected Labor gains after Kevin Rudd’s return steady evaporating and now putting them very slightly in negative territory. It would not of course have picked up any Peter Beattie dividend for Labor as of yet. Less happily, the projection insists on granting Labor an implausible third seat in Western Australia. While the two most marginal Liberal seats of Hasluck and Swan could well be in the Labor firing line, the model is very likely overestimating their chances in Canning off the back of the boost Labor received there in 2010 from Alannah MacTiernan’s candidacy.
Finally, The Guardian reports on an automated phone poll conducted in Anthony Albanese’s inner-city Sydney electorate of Grayndler by Lonergan Research, who I have not encountered previously but whose work appears well regarded by those who have. It turns in a highly plausible set of numbers with Albanese at 47% on the primary vote (compared with 46.1% in 2010), the Liberals at 28% (up from 24.2%) and the Greens at 22% (down from 25.9%). A 66% two-party preferred vote for Labor is provided in the poll, which presumably means versus the Liberals (the Greens made it to the final count in 2010, leaving Albanese with a margin of 4.2%), although I’m not clear if this is previous-election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It seems respondents were not asked about preferences, so evidently it’s the former). The sample is a hefty 966.
UPDATE: Now we have a ReachTEL poll, conducted today, showing the Coalition leading 53-47. More to follow.
William Bowe@994
Hmmm. Wonder if we’ll get ReachTEL weekly through the campaign now.
.@PolitiFactOz’s verdict on the fact that Government debt in Australia is low by global standards:
http://www.politifact.com.au/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/aug/07/kevin-rudd/government-debt-australia-low-global-standards/ …
Our ruling
Kevin Rudd said Australia’s government debt per head of population is one of the lowest in the developed world. With only New Zealand and South Korea below us, it’s hard to fault him.
That doesn’t mean the government has no questions to answer on why its debt projections have been consistently wrong. But even as it struggles with revenue shortfalls, it can still credibly argue that our debt is comparatively low.
We rate the statement True.
Mod Lib
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 5:32 pm | PERMALINK
You prefer recycled ex Premiers and Union leaders?
————–
I prefer who would be better for the country , and yes the recycled ex Premiers and Union leaders are better than the alterative
Of ex howard government ministers who have poor records while in government
[Carey Moore
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 5:37 pm | PERMALINK
My housemate was apparently polled. He didn’t catch the name of the pollster though.
I never get polled]
I have informed my mates in the Murdoch Evil Empire and none of the ALP tragics will ever be polled.
:devil: Bwa ha ha, bwa ha ha :devil:
Poll after poll… Had great morning today handing out liberal party leaflets so many positive comments.
[Spider
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 5:32 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib, I never imagined I would ever say this, but thank you for correcting me]
Onya Cobber. Strewth, yous had an Aboriginal mate, not many ockers can sey that
OS
[“if his own colleagues can’t stand him; why should Australia”]
Is it you who’s been hacking into my phonecalls?
The Libs should wait till he’s down and out to put the boot in so it’s probly filed in the “for future reference” folder.
Rosemour 850
[Here,I’ll give it a try.
There’sstill 4 weeks to go,people will see how useless Abbott is any day now. She’ll be right. The ALP are right on target.
Yeeha!]
I think the “4 weeks to go” part is quite unfair mockery of those of us who choose to be prudent and not declare victory/defeat for any side based on a 52-48 gap in the first week.
ML
That would be funny if it wasn’t dangerously close to the truth. If Murdoch could find a way to identify and avoid and get away with it he would.
The only doubt is the getting away with it part.
tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9041/Remarks-at-City-of-Holdfast-Bay-Australia-Day-Awards-and-Citizenship-Ceremony-Adelaide.aspx …
see how much TA cares about aborigines note his reference to convicts being first Australians!
[of course the public won’t mark Labor down if they tried a bit of hyperbowl as well in regard to two particular issues. ]
Cheeky, Thomas. Behave yourself.
I find it astonishing that even at this stage of the game that there still exist anybody that thinks Gillard Labor was in for anything but a near record thrashing!
We have seen that even though the return of Rudd has caused a dramatic recovery in Labor’s position that last 1% is proving very hard.
I think the indications are quite clear from the mood of the public that Gillard Labor would have not recovered from the level of a thrashing.
@AusElectoralCom: Electoral roll since announcment: Increase of 56,744 & over 200k enrolment transactions. Daily stats here – http://t.co/cdPD6hMO1d #Auspol
All that’s going to happen with this poll, like all other polls, is one side are going to dismiss it as flawed or biased and the other side as evidence that they’ve already won and the rest of the election is futile.
I also believe that Rudd is in for a historic defeat.
Brother, its the brand and not the leader that is the problem.
[@AusElectoralCom: Electoral roll since announcment: Increase of 56,744 & over 200k enrolment transactions. Daily stats here – http://t.co/cdPD6hMO1d #Auspol]
Brilliant. Had been quite busy with helping the uni students on campus with enrolment. Would like to take a small portion of the credit for that! 😉
Thanks Achmed, very informative as always, keep it up.
So, to return to my earlier question, what did the fiberals ever do that was beneficial to the aboriginal people?
4 more weeks of Rudd blowing the bass recorder. Holding up Vegemite jars and crushing five year olds fingers and labor will be begging the ranga to come back…
[ Carey Moore
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 5:41 pm | Permalink
I think the “4 weeks to go” part is quite unfair mockery of those of us who choose to be prudent and not declare victory/defeat for any side based on a 52-48 gap in the first week. ]
Plenty can still and probably will happen.
Predictions are for mugs anyway
Yeah, let’s not use Indigenous issues for partisan point scoring. Labor’s record there ain’t exactly the brightest either.
Mod Lib
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 5:41 pm | Permalink
Spider
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 5:32 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib, I never imagined I would ever say this, but thank you for correcting me
Onya Cobber. Strewth, yous had an Aboriginal mate, not many ockers can sey that
—————————————————–
Guess it depends on where you live, I have heaps in Pilbara and Kimberley
Of course ReachTEL recorded the initial decline in the ALP vote on day 1 of the campaign
I expect this one to be somewhat neutral
TP
No one doubts that Gillard was in for a thrashing although at the time about 70% of PBers were in denial and formally accepted it only the day after Rudd recycled the knife.
I believe she would have recovered somewhat closer to the election because at least there was a story to tell so final loss around 45-46/55-54. Rudd is headed to roughly the same point from the opposite direction so the outcome will probably be similar.
Mick77@996
There is something in “change always excites” at federal level. Every mid-term leadership change since the early 80s at least has produced a 2PP bounce. But that doesn’t mean clearly daft changes would produce bounces. Also at state level it doesn’t hold.
ReachTEL is 53-47? According to Twitter from a friend
Can someone check
Which looks more impressive
the new way team
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-01/kevin-rudds-frontbench/4791002
or
the new hope team
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Parliamentary_Handbook/Shadow
Still think “A New Way” is a dumb slogan for an incumbent government to run on.
Gillard could have survived if she wasn’t white-anted by Rudd and his team.
gc
To the ALP?
[ReachTEL is 53-47? According to Twitter from a friend
Can someone check]
O seriously doubt anyone will know before 7 news announces their scoop.
You back to phoney poll releases again Glory?
[gc
To the ALP?]
I sincerely doubt it.
[gc
To the ALP?]
highly unlikely
[ReachTEL is 53-47?
Which way?
N2T
[Gillard could have survived if she wasn’t white-anted by Rudd and his team.]
Please – you’re on hallowed St Kevin turf here. The man never was, never is, never will be a turd (until he loses on 7 Sept that is).
triton
Posted Saturday, August 10, 2013 at 5:59 pm | PERMALINK
[ReachTEL is 53-47?
Which way?
——-
the media poll wont be towards labor
BAM!
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 21s
#ReachTEL Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (-1) L/NP 53 (+1) #ausvotes]
Text from a friend said ‘according to Twitter the ReachTEL is 53-47 Libs’
53:47 to LNP
51:49 with women voters
Bigger lead for Abbott in PPM
Reachtel: 53-47 to Coalition
Primaries ALP 36.9 Coalition 46.9 Greens 8.9
Better PM Abbott 53 Rudd 47
6 point lead to the coalition. Abbott surges ahead.
[O seriously doubt anyone will know before 7 news announces their scoop.
You back to phoney poll releases again Glory?]
What was that, ruawake?
OK 7 scooped by Ghost and Glory. I was wrong.
Still a crap poll.
Bad reachtel.
Aussies are going to be that stupid and vote in Abbott
Next week is essential. Rudd needs to completely change his behavior. Another week like this one and it’s going to be very hard to see a comeback.
Well given the all out war by Murdoch that result is no surprise.
[Aussies are going to be that stupid and vote in Abbott]
Here we go…
Former ALP President all but endorsing a vote for an Abbott Government
As windsor said about reachtel polls they are done by the dodgy brothers
when they were caught out only polling in the pro coalition areas in new england
I’m calling it.
Coalition to win with 80+