Highlights of day three

A happy ending for Labor in its candidate crisis in Dobell, but the betting markets continue to move against them.

With 30 days to go:

• Labor has resolved its preselection difficulty in Dobell by recruiting Emma McBride, a former Wyong councillor and head of pharmacy at Wyong Hospital. McBride is the daughter of Grant McBride, who held the local state electorate of The Entrance from 1992 to 2011. She had initially been a candidate for the original preselection process which had lately hit a brick wall with the non-ratification of Trevor Drake’s endorsement, but announced her withdrawal in May. It evidently took some strong persuasion by party administration to get her back on board.

• Centrebet has hiked the payout on a Labor victory from $4 to $4.80, with the Coalition in from $1.25 to $1.18, and there is now $4.80 to be had on a Labor win from Betfair against $1.26 for the Coalition. Sportsbet and Tom Waterhouse continue to offer $4 on Labor. Sportsbet has lengthened Labor’s odds in Petrie, Moreton and Parramatta but shortened them in Dobell, presumably on the back of McBride’s endorsement. Labor is now paying $2.50 in Dobell and the Coalition $1.50, compared with $3.50 and $1.25 at the start of the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,172 comments on “Highlights of day three”

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  2. bbp

    [Will you provide a full list at the end of the campaign of your iDIOt of the day?]

    Certainly. I expect there to be plenty of material.

  4. Centre@1039
    The fbt tax adjustment that caused Macmillan Shakespeare’s share value to lose 1 billion dollars in a week could be called regressive for anyone who happened to be a holder at the time.

  6. Mckew upset Newscorps employee and David Miles by pointing out Murdochs days are numbered. Just look at The Washington Post

  8. If we had variable sales taxes they could have been increased at a lower rate than consumer goods deflation.

    More revenue, dumb Costello.

  13. [ Pyne is still stuck in the Howard years and seems to think nothing has changed in the past 6 years. ]

    Howard never promoted pyne in all those years.

    Must have had a reason.

  14. Can someone remind me what Maxine McKook used to do before she became a Labor politician??

    Perhaps someone can refresh my memory… after all she’s talking about Murdoch’s bias in favour of the Coalition. 🙂

  18. The share price went from $18.00 to $6.50 in three days and when I last looked it was around $9.00. Maybe it could be an indicator of who might win. And yes the drop in market cap was approx 1 billion

  22. [Families on $150k in the inner city suburbs of Sydney with 2 kids would be needing to go to the soup kitchen for a feed every now and then]

    And probably nick the bloody cutlery as well

  23. [A senior Liberal campaign source says that according to the LNP’s intensive marginal seat opinion polling, the ALP is not ahead in any of the key seats in the Sunshine State.]

    This *might* be true, but I certainly wont believe it from ‘a senior Liberal source’. LOL.

    They would say that, wouldn they?

  26. “@Lateline: On #lateline tonight what role has Catholic Church Insurance played in designing the church response to abuse? A fmr adviser speaks out.”

  27. [The reason that the GST is not pulling in is that there has been large scale retail price deflation. Also, the economy is relatively flat and there is less activity in the construction and professional services sectors]

    The GST should be placed on all goods and services bought online from sites based overseas.

  28. [so has abbott clarified how much he is proposing to increase the gst by yet?]

    He is waiting for State Premiers to tell him.

  42. Abbott’s economic theory alot of debt so let’s cut the company tax, makes sense to me… It must be a big worry this debt to be able to afford a cut to the company tax..

  43. How can the betting markets be included in poll stats as per the AFR poll of polls and retain any semblance of accuracy. By definition betting markets are reactionary and subject to movement on the basis of poll results. In effect aggregation of betting stats with polling stats introduces a degree of recursivity that will skew the results with a feedback loop.

  45. So this is how it work’ we increase the GST so no matter if you are rich or poor you pay the same rate but the rich big companies can get their cut so they can pay higher wages to their rich executives.. Sounds fair to Tony Abbott.

  46. Lol, Labor Rudd bring back Peter Beattie. Hahahahahaaha ha

    Libs may as well bring back JWH, a real PM. Kevin is a laugh a minute. Pass the beers!

    Cheers.

  48. Can I suggest that you guys bring back Paul Keating?

    You think he was wonderful so no doubt it would be good to have him back, no?

    Hehe 🙂

  50. LOL!!!

    There were some protestors against the ALP in Forde.

    Rudd said “The fact that the Local LNP put together a gaggle of folks out the front says to me one thing, their a bit anxious”

    Should have seen Beatties face in the background… went from 🙂 to :/ LOL

    Rudd’s such a dickhead. Peter Beattie isn’t quite a dickhead and realises offending Queenslanders pisses them off

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