Highlights of day three

A happy ending for Labor in its candidate crisis in Dobell, but the betting markets continue to move against them.

With 30 days to go:

• Labor has resolved its preselection difficulty in Dobell by recruiting Emma McBride, a former Wyong councillor and head of pharmacy at Wyong Hospital. McBride is the daughter of Grant McBride, who held the local state electorate of The Entrance from 1992 to 2011. She had initially been a candidate for the original preselection process which had lately hit a brick wall with the non-ratification of Trevor Drake’s endorsement, but announced her withdrawal in May. It evidently took some strong persuasion by party administration to get her back on board.

• Centrebet has hiked the payout on a Labor victory from $4 to $4.80, with the Coalition in from $1.25 to $1.18, and there is now $4.80 to be had on a Labor win from Betfair against $1.26 for the Coalition. Sportsbet and Tom Waterhouse continue to offer $4 on Labor. Sportsbet has lengthened Labor’s odds in Petrie, Moreton and Parramatta but shortened them in Dobell, presumably on the back of McBride’s endorsement. Labor is now paying $2.50 in Dobell and the Coalition $1.50, compared with $3.50 and $1.25 at the start of the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,172 comments on “Highlights of day three”

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  5. Rudd: “Lets attack the people of Forde as a “gaggle”! That’ll make em vote for you Beattie!”

    Beattie: “You really are a dickhead”

  7. [Graham Richardson reckons Labor will gain 2 or 3 tops in QLD but will lose in NSW and TAS and maybe a seat in Vic.

    You are probably looking at 78/79 seats for Coalition.]

    As I’ve said before I won’t be too distressed if Abbott falls over the line by a handfull of seats. It will mean that the Senate is safely out of his grasp and he won’t dare risk a double dissolution over the ETS. By 2015, which is the earliest he could call it according to the experts here, I fully expect the Libs to have lost any 2PP ascendancy they may have had anyway, due mainly to their mismanagement of the economy. Abbott’s dreams of a monumental rout of the government enabling him to get away with whatever he wanted, evaporated the moment Julia Gillard went. So even if he wins on September 7 he will struggle in these difficult economic times to avoid seeing it all fall apart before his eyes.

  8. Evening all.

    [Reachtel Forde poll: 54-46 2PP to the LNP]

    Is that a poll of voters today?

    How can they just get these polls a) and b) back in and numbers crunched, and c) published all in the space of a few hours?

  11. I’m not convinced conducting a poll on the day of an announcementwould be b is a good idea. These things need to sink in to all of the electorate. At least a few days later

  14. confessions
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 7:14 pm | PERMALINK
    Evening all.

    Reachtel Forde poll: 54-46 2PP to the LNP

    Is that a poll of voters today?

    How can they just get these polls a) and b) back in and numbers crunched, and c) published all in the space of a few hours?

    —————–

    The pro coalition media’s agenda

    Abbott must be in front

    Labor can not be in front in any pro coalition media poll

    Otherwise the election is over ,

  16. [How can they just get these polls a) and b) back in and numbers crunched, and c) published all in the space of a few hours?]

    Its automated

  20. whats with these Reachtel polls. Tassie disaster now Forde.
    I am slowly starting to become one of the pollster conspiritorial theorists.

  21. This election is not over yet, i still Labor will win. This has been a shoddy week for Labor Rudd should stop the Murdoch bashing and focus on the Libs policies.
    Forget about Murdoch and his papers what is required is a grassroots campaign of doorknocking and leaflets highlighting the good things Labor has done and the bad policies of the Libs… People will sit down before they vote and compare and people this… This is how they can win. The last week is the crucial week and this is when it must get its act together and go for it.

  22. Beattie can get lots of press to change people’s votes which might not necessarily be in his favour but it’s much too early to write him off.

  24. The coalition supporters need something to be kept interested in the election

    Even Sean Tisme and Mod LIB

    Gets the feeling with Abbott , coalition remains on the opposition benches

  27. ruwake

    what’s your thoughts on peter beattie coming back as a bystander from the south seems good to me

    must say he looked good lost a bit of weight from what I remember and look very positive and ready to go
    made a good impression standing there with kev.

    bit of cynical talk at the other blog so I thought I may be wrong with what I thought

    any other qlder like to offer their thoughts

    not liberals as we know what they think

  28. [I’m not convinced conducting a poll on the day of an announcementwould be b is a good idea. These things need to sink in to all of the electorate. At least a few days later]

    I agree.

    It’s like those vox pops the ABC was running in Forde for the World at Noon today. Let’s do it once people know the change has happened.

  29. [Beattie will win Forde. The real question is how many other seats he helps pull.]

    Well, the analyses of pathways to an ALP narrow win have them winning 6+ seats in Qld.

    The second easiest is Forde, yet there is a swing AGAINST the ALP in this poll and they would lose it.

    If they are losing one of the easiest seats for them to win, its not a good sign for a 6+ gain!

    This is what I meant about the fact that I cant wait for the marginal polling :devil:

  31. Does anyone know if there is a live stream link to the 7.30 Report sames as News 24 so I can watch it on the computer. Kids holding TV hostage.

  33. [Its automated]

    Yes, I forgot about that.

    The first time most voters would’ve heard about Beattie running for a federal seat would’ve been when they were driving home from work, checking their Facebook timeline, or turning on the evening news.

  34. [This is the same poll that has Abbott ahead of Rudd, just, as preferred PM.]

    Yes. The national reachtel figures on 2PP looked quite believable, but on PPM looked way out of the pack.

  36. guytaur
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 7:19 pm | PERMALINK
    I wonder did the Daily Telegraph get copyright permission for their Hogans Heroes front page?

    —————

    Im not sure who produced the tv show

    But y write to the copyright holder and give them the link to the telegraph 🙂

  37. That said, Id be very happy to see some actual marginal polling QLD.

    I dont believe either the LNP or ALP sources on “internal polls”

  38. Gary
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 7:21 pm | PERMALINK
    This is the same poll that has Abbott ahead of Rudd, just, as preferred PM. Are there any other polls that have this result.

    ———-
    Yes the media’s agenda

    Abbott must be in front

  39. and just who would be home after 2 pm

    hard of hearing people and others,

    and some would say what are they talking about beattie is not the member

    every one does not have their tv on or radio

    show u how desperate the lnp

    did they ask for this poll

    mr bowe should know question if not he should find out

  40. Mod Lib
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 7:20 pm | PERMALINK

    The second easiest is Forde, yet there is a swing AGAINST the ALP in this poll and they would lose it.

    ————–

    Doesnt the lnp hold it ?

  41. Ch10 news story re the weather was eerily like a Prof Fiona Stanley favourite conference presentation for those who have ever seen her go-to powerpoint slide on childrens development.

    A family of black swans were filmed crossing the road in Applecross today and the baby cygnets got caught in a run-off of water in the gutter and were swept into a drain. Only two were left out of about six!

    Fiona uses a similar slide only with ducks crossing the road and mum crosses a grate with ducklings in tow who all fall through the grate and are lost.

    I think the person filming the cygnets managed to get them out of the drain – I hope so anyways!

  43. “@StephenLongABC: Youth unemployment rate in Greece is an indictment of EU/IMF austerity policies. Generation lost.”

    “@StephenLongABC: OMG. Terrible. “@SebHenbest: “@AlbertoNardelli: #Greece unemployment rate: 27.6%, 31.6% women, youth 64.9%. 1.4m unemployed, 3.3m inactive”””

  45. reachtel

    what a waste of money that was as some one else pointed

    out most qlders would not even know till they got home from work
    \
    it thinks polls are done on purpose as anti moral thingo

  46. my say

    Beattie has come back from a job at a prestigious US University to win. He will win in a canter.

    As the Pew research centre found the cheaper and quicker the method the less reliable the result.

    This is why they use a 5 day period for polling.

    Tonights ReachTel is rubbish revenue raising.

  47. “@ABCNews24: No Grandstand tonight, watch 7.30 on #ABCNews24 instead. New ALP candidate for Forde Peter Beattie joins @leighsales 7.30pm AEST #ausvotes”

  50. reach tell should be banned here

    as I said I could not hear what the computer was saying

    and pressing buttons then the questions are being fired and you still haven’t pressed the first button

    then I hung up after screaming
    dam computer

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