BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

Magnifying glasses required to separate the two parties, or to pick the difference from the 2010 election result.

The weekly BludgerTrack update erases the 0.5% edge the Coalition gained in the wake of last week’s Newspoll, and finds Labor the tiniest fraction more likely than the Coalition to win a majority of seats. Labor has made a net gain of two on the seat projection, Queensland again showing its sensitivity with a two-seat shift on the basis of a very small vote change and a second gain projected for Labor in Western Australia (though I’d be a bit careful with the smaller state results at the moment, polling at that level having become leaner recently). This has been counterbalanced by a one seat move to the Coalition in New South Wales, where the Labor score remains on the cusp of 25 and 26.

The primary and two-party vote results are all but identical to the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which is the weightiest of the new data points. Included as always are Morgan, which was unusually soft for Labor this week, and Essential, which retains its slight lean to the Coalition relative to the rest of the field but has perhaps been trending slightly to Labor over the past few weeks. The one very bad new poll for Labor, the weekend’s ReachTEL result showing Labor to lose three of its four Tasmanian seats, has been included in the state relativities calculation. While its inclusion has weakened Labor’s two-party vote projection in the state by nearly 3% in relative terms, the model is not persuaded that Lyons will be joining Bass and Braddon on the casualty list.

The trendlines on the sidebar now paint a picture of monotonous consistency since the Rudd restoration, the so-called “sugar hit” having endured long enough to offer the Coalition real cause for alarm. However, very close observation of the primary votes provides some indication of movement beneath the surface. A poll aggregator like BludgerTrack presumes to have a margin of error of a bit over 1%, and while this is founded on dubious assumptions, it at least gives a rough pointer to the size of movement that should and shouldn’t interest us. One move outside the range concerns the Greens, who opened their account under Rudd at around 9%, sagged nearly a full point by the time of the asylum seeker policy announcement (remembering the margin of error diminishes the further a result gets from 50%), and have now recovered back to the starting point.

The other noteworthy change involves the “others” vote, which started the year at around 10%, increased to 12.5% as Labor bled primary vote support in the last six months under Julia Gillard, snapped back to around 9% when Rudd returned, and has trended downwards over the past four weeks to its present 7.5%. Part of that may have been absorbed by the Coalition in a general trend resulting from the media losing interest in some of the minor players, but it seems intuitively likely that a greater share comes from Labor leaners who have been won over after initial hesitancy by Rudd’s political initiatives. There may have been some deflation in the Rudd honeymoon balloon going on concurrently, with the Coalition primary vote at least holding level and perhaps rising slightly, but Rudd’s evident political successes have at the very least cancelled it out.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,191 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0”

  1. remember I refered to one of bks links something about

    poor economic figure, re the election

    so let see

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    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 49s
    Credit growth0.4% in June … it has stopped falling

    Expand Reply

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  2. Lefty

    While the idea of clearing a backlog in Indonesia is a good one, the sort of $70M idea suggested by the Greens is setting up a regional centre which may or may not appeal to Indonesia.

    It might mean a giant centre in Indonesia.

  6. Lefty

    The only way the Greens policy would have a chance of working is if Australia sets some VERY tight criteria for accepting refugees.

    If we accept just about anyone from a racial minority or because they are gay or female etc, then the numbers will increase exponentially and rapidly overwhelm even a $70M commitment.

    I doubt that the Greens have the stomach for hard decisions like this.

  8. Guytaur

    Yes but it would increase rapidly. Also most of the IMA are NOT in the centre so not quite sure how it would affect arrivals.

  10. Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 5m
    FWIW: Housing credit is approx $1.295 trillion, personal is just $134 billion, Business credit is $734 billion

    Expand

  11. AA

    Abbott has confirmed that he supports the rorts associated with the FBT while attacking the superannuation savings of 3.7 million low income workers, mainly women.

    If anything proves the Opposition are a pack of Fiscal & Economically illiterate dolts, failure to support increased Superannuation it is.

    Whilst Biz, esp Small Biz, might want to freeze Super, the Financial & investment Sectors want it increased, for obvious reasons.

    Helping to underpin Australia’s financial health are our several huge Superannuation Money Bins, inc the Howard Government’s Future Fund to cover Federal Gov superannuation recipients’ benefits; State & Territory Gov funds covering their (& usually Council & QANGO) superannuants; well-controlled Industry Funds; as well as many different private funds.

    Most Super funds offer a range of alternatives, with investments in a huge range of International as well as National companies’ shares, trust funds (inc construction companies), currencies (I’d love to know how much Super was used to buy “reserve currencies” when A$1 was at its peak, and how much they’ll make flogging USA$, UK£ etc when A$ is back in the low 60s-50s).

    IOW, superannuation provides Australia with a well-spread, de facto Sovereign Wealth Fund worth well over A$1 trillion (?A$1.7 trillion).

    Increased super payments should continue to augment Oz’s Money Bins – to A$2 trillion very soon, then on & on. In addition, they should significantly reduce OAP & sickness benefits in the near to distant future.

    Time Abbott explained to Australians why – since Super provides that de facto Sovereign Wealth Fund underpinning our economy – he’ll rip away their Superannuation benefits!

  12. Daretotread: its a complex issue, and basically Indonesia has been unhappy with the idea that Howard proposed, which was along the lines of: we will help you improve your detention, but we wont necessarily take anyone, and therfore turn it into your problemo, cheers.

    Taking the approach that we realise we are the destination country, but wish to stop people taking boat voyages, and will take our fair share, and will contribute to a regional solution (that is not only in Indonesia) will give diplomats something to work with at the Bali forum. Yes, maybe 70m upfront jumps that process a bit, sure: its got to be negotiated. But Id give you good odds Malaysia will sign on without much ado, for starters.

  13. Guytaur

    It will ONLY destroy the people smuggling model if those who bypass the system and STILL come by boat are NOT accepted.

    I rather like a combination of the Manus Island idea AND the Greens idea.

  14. Dave

    I cannot think of anyone successfully challenging an ICAC finding (and remember that is all it is) since Greiner in 1992 – there may have been one or two.

    As to criminal proceedings, there have been fuck all prosecutions arising from such findings except where someone lied before ICAC – there maybe evidence of that here. I think this will be different given the scale – plus the commissioner is by far and away the most eminent commissioner appointed so what he says is likely to carry more weight than say Barry O’Keefe or Irene Moss.

    But the “corrupt” have more coin than you and I will ever see so expect a legal spendathon – Travers Duncan has already probably thrown a lazy million just to stop the publication of the report.

  16. Dtt

    We know it works. We know the money is not there for people smugglers.

    Malcolm Fraser with Gough Whitlams help proved it works with the “flood” of Vietnamese AS

  17. I rather like a combination of the Manus Island idea AND the Greens idea.

    Im not a fan of offshore processing myself – but you’re right: this is an offshore policy. As such, there’s nothing stopping any other party adopting it, and keeping whatever other measures they want for onshore arrivals.

  19. What next?

    Maybe a hurried trip to PNG for Abbott where he will mingle with the PNG opposition and come up with some more sound bites?

  20. Guytaur

    Much has changed since Vietnam.

    Not sure you can make that assertion.

    Iranians are FAR richer by and large than Vietnamese ever were so money is there

  22. Just went for a drive and tuned in to the local shoutback radio. I had missed what must have been a torrid session for the guest Emperor Colin Barnett. I just caught the final call which started with “I just want to back up what everyone else has been saying. You are an arrogant liar.” . Fed Labor would do well if they could equate Abbott with Barnett.
    Barnett had really got them frothing when he excused his broken election promises because he reckoned on polling day nobody cares about them.

  23. Guytaur

    It will ONLY break the models if the numbers Australia is willing to accept exceed the numbers seeking asylum. Without very strict criteria as to who is a refugee the solution is bound to fail.

    There are 45 million displaced persons. If just 5% go to our region it would overwhelm us.

  24. DTT

    Iran is a repressive dictatorship. Any people with money have more money to lose by leaving than by staying. That they would do so only confirms the need to flee.

    The principle is the same. Process offshore there is no reason for anyone to pay a people smuggler to risk their life to come by leaky boat

  25. An example of MacDonald’s preparedness to impugn his department:

    Mr Macdonald says the boundaries of the tenement which covered the Obeids’ properties were drawn up by his department.

  26. DTT

    That 45 million argument applies equally to any solution where Australia abides by the treaty and accepts AS as it has signed up to do.

    At least this way is cheaper. Even Tim Fischer is saying on 24 the closer to source you process the better.

  27. Left e

    Obviously Ozpol, but if you’re talking finance: 70m will make a huge difference to processing in Indonesia …

    Sorry guys – its a far better policy

    Mate, I’m not evaluating the policy; I’m talking political reality! As cartoon character Charlie Brown famously said, Winning isn’t everything; but losing isn’t anything.

    In that reality, it’s less a policy than a wish – or “a wing & a prayer” – which can be granted only if there’s a majority of Politicians supporting it in both Houses.

    After Greens’ reaction to earlier AS policies – whatever the purity or common sense of their reasons – and their strident excoriation of both Major Parties, imo there’s little chance of the policy’s becoming more than empty words if Milne & SHY (both Senators, when real power lies with the HoR) continue, in their usual manner, as its spokespersons.

  28. @guytaur/226

    I think I pointed out this other week as well.

    My proposal:

    – They would need to look at where they coming from.
    – Mark the problem area’s.
    – Negotiate with the countries nearby.
    – Build additional detention centers.
    – Fully staffed by Australians/UNCHR (or both).
    – Then let them get assessed those people if they want to come to Australia.
    – Staffed Permanently by security/Police at all Detention Centers that are trained to deal with Asylum Seekers.
    – UNCHR to oversea the Facility and should be majority in charge so that medical/food related issues are limited.
    – Detention Center’s must be fully furnished and clean.
    – Regular meals.
    – Zero Torture Tolerance.
    – Health / Medical Professionals should be made available at on site 24/7.
    – Removal of Family including Children.
    – Education and Health must be provided.

  29. OPT

    When you are talking money reality is it is far easier to find $70 million to process in Indonesia than it is to get the money requied for the “PNG” solution.

  30. Guytaur

    I dispute Iran is a repressive dictatorship – at least not in the world picture. It does have democratic elections and is therefore one hell of a lot ahead of Saudi, Yemen, Kuwait, Egypt (now), Fiji, Burma, Libya much of Africa etc. You get confused with US does not like Iran with reality.

    I seriously doubt that the limits on free speech in Iran are very much worse than in many, many parts of the world.

    Get real Iranians are fleeing US sanctions. The whole “evil blue meany Iran” is just US/Israeli spin. Sure it does not meet Australian standards but it would still not be in the worst 100 countries for repression.

    Indeed after the Bradley Manning decision this morning which effectively abolishes free speech on any military or security matters on the internet in the USA, I suspect you may find Iran a beacon for liberal democracy soon.

  31. DTT

    Yeah the shooting of people protesting because of the election being fixed was a figment of imagination. Along with all their repressive measures to block social media and other free discource.

  32. Guytaur

    True but compared with Egypt where 100 people killed in support of a DEMOCRATICALLY elected PM,Iran pales into insignificance.

    Oh and that election was 4 years ago and there has been a subsequent trouble free election.

    So how many Islamic Brotherhood from Egypt are you willing to accept.

    They meet ALL the criteria – at risk if life, selected religious political association, political persecution. There are probably about 5 million available just now.

    How do Iranians of whom 1 in several million may be a risk compare in the priority with 2 million displaced Syrians.

  33. fair enough Ozpol, but as I said earlier most pollies know this approach will work: but only the GRNs are saying it.

    The fact that the GRNs may not be in a postion to push for this is neither here nor there (and by the way, it turned out they were in a position to push policy ideas in 2010, so its not impossible). Its a policy idea the ALP can take into the mix.

    The ALP should do something like this in conjunction with whatever else they want. Its simply time to actually take offfshore refugees from our region, and remove the perverse incentive that WE have created for taking boats. Even UNHCR refugees with a ticket take boats here – must be the only place in the world that happens. Why – cos there’s no resettlement offered.

    Its a good starter for un-stalling the Bali process as well.

    I actually dont think it would even be seens as ‘soft’: support for Australia’s offshore program is actually very high among the public.

  38. Guytaur

    Of course it matters

    There are degrees of persecution.

    There are 45 million displaced people. At best Australia could take 1/10.

    You MUST set priorities about selection otherwise it is Dawinian survival of the fittest (aka wealthiest) and is the very worst form of refugee selection.

    There are degrees of persecution ranging from difficulty in getting employment because of ethnicity (often complicated by lower skill or education sets) through to high level political activists at risk of execution.

    If you regard all these as equivalent then frankly I feel too disheartened to bother with further debate.

  39. ‘My proposal:

    – They would need to look at where they coming from.
    – Mark the problem area’s.’

    PB Apostrophe Misuse Service High Alert

  40. Dennis Atkins, the (pretty much solo) voice of NewsCorp reason, always worth reading Party Games: Testy Coalition MPs not happy playing second fiddle to Kevin Rudd on asylum seeker policy

    On the strength of Labor’s failure on asylum seekers alone, Abbott was justified to consider living in The Lodge after an election that shouldn’t have raised a sweat.

    You can imagine the fury and frustration felt after Kevin Rudd took away Abbott’s best asset – former prime minister Julia Gillard – and then came up with an evil genius plan worthy of the old master Howard.

    An election could be called this weekend if Rudd can keep his feet warm and the polls say a plurality of Australian voters – 40 to 38 per cent – trust Labor more to handle border protection…

    Selling “Pacific solution 2”, Abbott, Morrison and shadow attorney-general George Brandis looked more than rattled.

    They were testy with journalists – Abbott and Brandis stopped just short of calling experienced political reporters gullible fools – and clearly cranky about being bested by Rudd.

  41. DTT

    Given the numbers already in the Indonesian camp are more than we can take how they got there and where they came from is immaterial. What matters is do the qualify as genuine refugees yes or no.

  42. Guytaur

    It depends on the criteria you choose for selection.

    For permanent residence, those who have no hope of returning home have priority IMHO.

    Also nature abhors a vacuum. I suspect if we take 10,000 that 20,000 will turn up in record time

  45. DTT

    You have gone a long way from breaking the people smugglers model.

    The process the UNHCR uses already exists. The only lack they have in Indonesia is the funding required.

    No need to second guess or reinvent the wheel

  46. And despite all of this.

    I’ve yet to see anyone do a proper, scholarly analysis of exactly what would happen under certain scenarios.

    Suppose we focused purely on the region and set up shop, offering processing in places such as Indonesia itself.

    How many people would choose to come to Australia?

    The standard reply here is along the lines of oh my god that’s unthinkable.. millions!

    But I’m still waiting to see if any of the brains of PB can actually do a real analysis.

    And despite all of this.

    We also don’t have a proper analysis of how many people Australia could take, what the consequences actually would be, and how we could deal with the genuine (but often overstated) cultural issues.

    I’d love to see you guys treat this seriously. So far I’ve been disappointed .

  47. What a bare faced liar Abbott is proving himself to be.

    He cries crocodile tears and tells everyone how he is concerned at the job losses happening because of a change to the FBT rort.

    Yet his own policy is to stop all subsidies to the car industry and impose a new 1.5% tax to pay for parental leave

    Does he really believe that people are stupid enough not see through his lies. (Sean excepted because he is)

  48. “@SimonPalan: The federal government has just announced that the largest solar energy project in the southern hemisphere will be built at Broken Hill.”

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