BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

Magnifying glasses required to separate the two parties, or to pick the difference from the 2010 election result.

The weekly BludgerTrack update erases the 0.5% edge the Coalition gained in the wake of last week’s Newspoll, and finds Labor the tiniest fraction more likely than the Coalition to win a majority of seats. Labor has made a net gain of two on the seat projection, Queensland again showing its sensitivity with a two-seat shift on the basis of a very small vote change and a second gain projected for Labor in Western Australia (though I’d be a bit careful with the smaller state results at the moment, polling at that level having become leaner recently). This has been counterbalanced by a one seat move to the Coalition in New South Wales, where the Labor score remains on the cusp of 25 and 26.

The primary and two-party vote results are all but identical to the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which is the weightiest of the new data points. Included as always are Morgan, which was unusually soft for Labor this week, and Essential, which retains its slight lean to the Coalition relative to the rest of the field but has perhaps been trending slightly to Labor over the past few weeks. The one very bad new poll for Labor, the weekend’s ReachTEL result showing Labor to lose three of its four Tasmanian seats, has been included in the state relativities calculation. While its inclusion has weakened Labor’s two-party vote projection in the state by nearly 3% in relative terms, the model is not persuaded that Lyons will be joining Bass and Braddon on the casualty list.

The trendlines on the sidebar now paint a picture of monotonous consistency since the Rudd restoration, the so-called “sugar hit” having endured long enough to offer the Coalition real cause for alarm. However, very close observation of the primary votes provides some indication of movement beneath the surface. A poll aggregator like BludgerTrack presumes to have a margin of error of a bit over 1%, and while this is founded on dubious assumptions, it at least gives a rough pointer to the size of movement that should and shouldn’t interest us. One move outside the range concerns the Greens, who opened their account under Rudd at around 9%, sagged nearly a full point by the time of the asylum seeker policy announcement (remembering the margin of error diminishes the further a result gets from 50%), and have now recovered back to the starting point.

The other noteworthy change involves the “others” vote, which started the year at around 10%, increased to 12.5% as Labor bled primary vote support in the last six months under Julia Gillard, snapped back to around 9% when Rudd returned, and has trended downwards over the past four weeks to its present 7.5%. Part of that may have been absorbed by the Coalition in a general trend resulting from the media losing interest in some of the minor players, but it seems intuitively likely that a greater share comes from Labor leaners who have been won over after initial hesitancy by Rudd’s political initiatives. There may have been some deflation in the Rudd honeymoon balloon going on concurrently, with the Coalition primary vote at least holding level and perhaps rising slightly, but Rudd’s evident political successes have at the very least cancelled it out.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,191 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0”

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  2. Just respamming:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch_30.html

    Poll Roundup and Seat Betting Watch July 30 – Includes History of Seat Transfer By Swing

    2PP Aggregate (Tuesday 30 July): 50.2 TO COALITION (effectively +0.1 since last week – slight method change)
    Individual Seat Betting: Labor favourites in 65 seats (+2, Banks and Reid)
    Seat Total Market: Labor 68 seats (+2)

    There’s some wonky stuff thrown in at the end about the past history of what sort of seat gains Governments and Oppositions normally make for a given swing.

    There’s also this:

    “A sobering note for Coalition fans: you’d better hope this is a bounce that’s going to wash out of the system by polling day, because otherwise … governments in this sort of aggregated 2PP position this close to a poll have always won. Even if most of those governments were yours.”

    (I am, of course, assuming the election is soonish and not in late November.)

  3. [Finally Overseas Uni’s have been doing this for years]

    Gawd! Do Aussie journos NEVER bother researching & fact-checking before making utter fools of themselves, especially to those who DO KNOW the truth?

    Oz universities (mainly the ones offering “external/off-campus” studies) have been offering such courses – for many decades, in some cases – as part of their “community Education’/ outreach/ extension etc programmes; though some charged a small fee.

    BTW, successful completion of such courses can be accredited, in Australia, under Recognition of Prior Learning requirements, as can completed TAFE “units” for advanced-standing entry into a wide range of undergrad courses (inc Business, engineering, nursing). Again, this has been happening since (at the latest) early 1990s.

    That article is as dumb as Abbott’s ed “?policy” of a couple of years back, of offering apprenticeship courses in high schools. In Qld, that started in the very early 1980s; the first International Baccalaureate courses a decade later.

    Only yesterday, the Queensland launches OP score review because:

    [“Education has evolved significantly since school-based senior assessment was introduced in the early 1970s, followed by the Overall Position (OP) tertiary entrance system in 1992, highlighting the need for this review,” Mr Langbroek said.

    “The reality is that school-based apprenticeships and vocational education and training are on the rise and senior students are using many different pathways to reach their tertiary destinations.

    “This review is an opportunity for us to ensure that the Queensland system reflects the multitude of ways that senior students can demonstrate achievement and the range of options available to students after they leave school.”]

    As well “TAFE-Link” courses (Certificate 4 level, which many students reach while still at school, counts as 1st Year equivalent in relevant university courses), other options include:

    International Baccalaureate; successful completion of which meets International University Entry Requirements in relevant disciplines & faculties

    Completion of university “units”/ courses in school-Uni “link” courses (inc on-campus attendance – which may be based in other states or OS – as well as online studies)

    Completion of units/courses in arts & sports (inc art, music, ballet, drama, film & TV, sports) through specialists colleges (inc Conservatorium) & “local” branches of National Institutes (inc Sports, film & TV, stage) which are accredited towards degrees in relevant uni faculties, specialist schools, National Institutes etc

    Completion of International subjects/ courses – including “other-language immersion” courses studied online/ skype-linked to other countries’ schools, colleges, universities etc

    BTW, many of the above started in the 1970-80s (inc uni advanced standing based on “folios of work” submitted for moderated assessment- with UNE some of my students did achieved advanced standing (History, Accounting & some sciences) in the 1970-80s, & many more in the 1990s.

    I don’t know if such alternative “pathways” to postSchool education are available in States/ Territories where the “normal” pathways are channeled through Public Exams (eg GCE). But Recognition of prior learning, inc TAFE & “outreach” courses, should be available nationally

  8. @ABCNews24: Greens say they will provide extra $70m per year to fast track processing of refugee claims in Indonesia http://t.co/TtTI3ZYXOH
    ———————————————————–

    It was pointed out the other day that if processing refguees from Indonesia occurs all you get are those who can afford to fly to Indonesia.

    It does nothing to get people out of the horrendous camps in Africa, Pakistan etc

  9. I am very surprised, no shocked that there was no mention of Tollgate on AM this morning after tent city was such a big story for them yesterday when the could spin it as some sort of positive for the coalition.

    I guess as the direct feed from Newscorpse had no mention of it the fearless investigative hounds from ABC current affairs naturally assumed that it wasn’t news.

    Better to speculate on what ICAC will do today. Actually it was a bit more than speculation with the reporter calling his ponderings, ICAC ‘findings.

    With Newspoll in the field this week, expect anti-Labor rhetoric at full force from the ABC for the rest of the week.

  11. Here it comes. Lets see how long before Abbott does a presser regarding ICAC

    “@latikambourke: RT @mcoultan: Eddie Obeid and Ian Macdonald found corrupt by the ICAC. To”

    Slow release due to website crash

  12. [Either the 7th or 21st september are the only dates left that dont necessitate a return to parliament]

    NOT 21st, because school holidays mean most will have already booked accommodation, tourist attraction visits etc, and accommodation usually starts mid-day Saturday. This is especially so as Spring tends to be a bigger tourist season for families than Winter.

    So 7th, 14th – and I did check 14th when I recalled that, after the MSM storm over JG’s announcement, Jewish Groups had said it wasn’t a problem – Saturdays are their normal days of religious observance.

  17. Only the die hards are still interested in the ICAC findings. Everyone knew they were crooks months ago. Big so what from me but adrian/guytaur are sadly correct, stand by for a Labor rubbishing supreme.

  19. The other good thing about the GRNs policy and there’s no reason other countries wont take from that queue as well. Whereas our ridiculous offshore processing centres – they’re just an expensive detour back here, as Howard discovered.

    [It does nothing to get people out of the horrendous camps in Africa, Pakistan etc]

    yes it does: its saying the sayng 20,000 will be taken from those places (more than we do now), and 10,000 from our region.

    The truth is this: most politicians of any stripe who have invesitigated the issue know this will work. But the LNP and ALP are more interested in politics, not policy.

    The ALP would be very wise indeed to institute a version of this. A few people seem to be missing the point completely: if you do this, you can still adopt whatever measures you want regarding boat arrivals. This is an offshore policy. It will work – it WILL slow boat arrivals, so it might even make ineffective measures on our shores look more effective than they are.

    its also the right thing to do, and MASSIVELY cheaper.

  22. Tollgate was front page of The Age.

    Its obviously a potential comflict of interest from Morrison: he might be the relevant minister within months (though personally I dont believe he will, thats beside the point)

  26. [http://www.smh.com.au/national/court-told-of-rinehart-bid-to-seize-shares-20130730-2qxbb.html]

    I try very very hard not to pass judgement on inviduals but Rinehart certainly test my patience.

  27. @ABCNews24: Greens say they will provide extra $70m per year to fast track processing of refugee claims in Indonesia http://t.co/TtTI3ZYXOH

    HUH?

    In financial (& other) matters, Greens (& Independents) don’t have the numbers to “provide” anything other than their support, or lack of it, for legislation, amendments etc; though they can present Bills & Amendments.

    So Greens (& Independents) may announce they will present a Bill for/ to achieve …, and lobby to get others to support a Bill; but that’s it. Only Major Parties, with or without support from other Parties & Indies, can “provide” (ie ensure a Bill is passed & becomes legislation).

    On present OpPoll figures, Greens are unlikely to win any additional HoR Seats/ Senate spots, & may lose some.

  28. Obviously Ozpol, but if you’re talking finance: 70m will make a huge difference to processing in Indonesia (where they occasionally get grants of 200k), and will create a queue.

    The same figure represents what? maybe 4 weeks of running the PNG solution.

    Sorry guys – its a far better policy. if the ALP wants to run the politics as presently, fine, but quietly you should be doing something exactly like this on the policy front: it WILL stem the flow of boat arrivals.

  31. 169
    lefty e

    [The …. thing about the GRNs policy]

    …is it would inevitably increase the flow of displaced persons into Indonesia – something the Indonesians would not welcome. As it is, Australia could increase its selections from those already held in immigration detention by Indonesia, but refrains from doing. Presumably this is because both countries wish to retard the influx of displaced persons into that jurisdiction, rather than to increase it.

    Increased flows into Indonesia will only result in even more trafficking by sea, higher numbers of unlawful immigrants in Indonesia and, eventually, increased numbers in detention there too.

    Once again, Green policies on IMA’s are intended as a sop to their conscience at the expense of taxpayers, potential recruits to the humanitarian program and the lives of some of those willing to attempt sea passage.

  33. so as I understand it they want to fly in some that would come by boat. 10th read about last evening,
    costly.

    s0 do they really think that would stop the smugglers

    so what do we do the boats that still come,

    that would just free up the smugglers to take the next lot

    o dear

    =====================

  34. ICAC has kicked the door down for DPP (State and Cth), ASIC and ATO to swarm in over corrupt politicians and businessmen – Godspeed.

    Anyone seeking to brush this off might want to think about how multiple levels of NSW public service was compromised by these people

  39. Shellbell

    you may be interested to know that the people that actually may be caught up in the web are from the coalition side of politics

  41. Victoria

    Yes, I specified the businessmen.

    I pity the public servants who had to put up with this shit. No doubt there was some vindication in giving their evidence to ICAC which no doubt was generally accepted.

  43. Briefly, Indonesia is in charge of inflows into its territory. As we have seen recently, they are not averse to making amendments to these policies.

    Malaysia signed up to Glllard’s solution because they could have 3000 refugees shifted from their shores, btw. There are clear upsides for Indonesia here. They get loads of asylum seekers already – thats a given.

    Indonesia has always stated they are a transit country for Australia (they are correct in this), that Australia therfore shouldnt treat it as an Indonesian problem, and we need a regional solution, and this policy acknowledgs all three. Australia should offer the same to Malaysia if this policy is adopted. This can definitely be sold in the region, using the exisiting regional forum for resolving exactly this issue: the Bali process.

  44. adrian

    That is why I have been referring tp over reach.

    For starters any attempt at political exploitation on this will immediately bring up calls for a IVAV style inquiry into the Slipper affair nased on the Federal Court Judge ruling.

  46. victoria@150


    Jonathan Swan

    I’ve asked Scott Morrison’s office and Toll Holdings to give more detail on what, exactly, the Coalition invited Toll to do.

    Good luck with that, really.

    If he gets any reply, no one will remember who approached who initially, but it will be said over and over that it was all above board.

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