The weekly BludgerTrack update erases the 0.5% edge the Coalition gained in the wake of last week’s Newspoll, and finds Labor the tiniest fraction more likely than the Coalition to win a majority of seats. Labor has made a net gain of two on the seat projection, Queensland again showing its sensitivity with a two-seat shift on the basis of a very small vote change and a second gain projected for Labor in Western Australia (though I’d be a bit careful with the smaller state results at the moment, polling at that level having become leaner recently). This has been counterbalanced by a one seat move to the Coalition in New South Wales, where the Labor score remains on the cusp of 25 and 26.
The primary and two-party vote results are all but identical to the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which is the weightiest of the new data points. Included as always are Morgan, which was unusually soft for Labor this week, and Essential, which retains its slight lean to the Coalition relative to the rest of the field but has perhaps been trending slightly to Labor over the past few weeks. The one very bad new poll for Labor, the weekend’s ReachTEL result showing Labor to lose three of its four Tasmanian seats, has been included in the state relativities calculation. While its inclusion has weakened Labor’s two-party vote projection in the state by nearly 3% in relative terms, the model is not persuaded that Lyons will be joining Bass and Braddon on the casualty list.
The trendlines on the sidebar now paint a picture of monotonous consistency since the Rudd restoration, the so-called “sugar hit” having endured long enough to offer the Coalition real cause for alarm. However, very close observation of the primary votes provides some indication of movement beneath the surface. A poll aggregator like BludgerTrack presumes to have a margin of error of a bit over 1%, and while this is founded on dubious assumptions, it at least gives a rough pointer to the size of movement that should and shouldn’t interest us. One move outside the range concerns the Greens, who opened their account under Rudd at around 9%, sagged nearly a full point by the time of the asylum seeker policy announcement (remembering the margin of error diminishes the further a result gets from 50%), and have now recovered back to the starting point.
The other noteworthy change involves the “others” vote, which started the year at around 10%, increased to 12.5% as Labor bled primary vote support in the last six months under Julia Gillard, snapped back to around 9% when Rudd returned, and has trended downwards over the past four weeks to its present 7.5%. Part of that may have been absorbed by the Coalition in a general trend resulting from the media losing interest in some of the minor players, but it seems intuitively likely that a greater share comes from Labor leaners who have been won over after initial hesitancy by Rudd’s political initiatives. There may have been some deflation in the Rudd honeymoon balloon going on concurrently, with the Coalition primary vote at least holding level and perhaps rising slightly, but Rudd’s evident political successes have at the very least cancelled it out.
Demand for settlement in Australia is more or less unlimited, so for mine this is necessarily about the numbers of those accepted and the means by which this happens.
We should not have to choose between the orderly conduct of migration policy, the application of the law and our conscience. Make no mistake. This is an element of the migration program, no matter how else it may be construed. Those arriving here by sea also view things this way – as an attempt to obtain settlement by virtue of the structures in our legal system.
If the basic principle is that Australia will control its migration policy – and not traffickers or those who wish to settle here – then we have to take relevant and effective steps to exercise control.
I am fed up with the politicisation of drownings and the endless point-scoring over this matter, as I’m sure most voters are. This has to be one of the sorriest episodes in Australian political history and should be brought to an immediate end.
Because AGL are building and operating it, and they announced it today 😉
Abbott claims he will stop the boats within 3 years if elected.
Then comes out with a 5 year plan for Nauru.
What does it all mmeeaannn?
He’s hopeless with numbers?
He can’t remember what he last said?
Or he’s just verbalising every brain fart he has? (Not thought bubbles, his ideas stink too much)
zoid, yes, it can be called any weekend.
Thanks, ArchCC. I’m clearly not paying attention.
Guytaur:
How dreadful! I propose a world in which everyone could snuggle with impunity, especially on cold winter nights, when hot cocoa would be served. 😉
Labor 74
Coalition 73
Others 3
Looks like “Others” will hold the balance of power
Another hung Parliament??
Fran # 255
Unfortunately global warming looks likely to break the people snugglers’ model …
Correcitng my big gaffes 🙂
Standby for another Abbott epic gaffe coming up, apparently he has called a press conference at 1:50 about the icac ruling
I dont think the election should be called this week , otherwise newsltd and pro coaliiton media will be on the icac ruling more than the election campaign
there is no doubt newsltd and pro coalition would be cheering for an election to be called this week
i still made an gaffe in the correction 🙁
Good one Fran! 😆
Are Libs entangled in the ICAC inquiry and if so, who??
My Say
Spoke to the doctors this morning. OH, won’t be coming home for a long time so PBer is stuck me for a while yet.
drownings and the endless point-scoring over this matter, as I’m sure most voters are. This has to be one of the sorriest episodes in Australian political history and should be brought to an immediate end.-==
=======================================================
here here
I f Abbott think the icac goign ot win him votes, he will be in for a surprise
Ih was fair dinkum
he would answer
what does he know about Ashby and the libs/lnp invovlement
He would explain his travel and bookrorts
toll
et
Why is Michelle Grattan interested in something that has embarrassed the Libs – not part of her usual narrative?
sohar
Good question
Does Abbott still support Torbay who is invovled with obeid
DEE
I am disappointed, for you its also very tiring going to hospitals.
I had not realised your husband was back in hospital.
suppose u have lots of friends but if u need an extra
email chat with a stranger
u can always have my address
Quite unusual!
Perhaps she now has the freedom to pursue facts..
She is considered an insider, so one also wonders if there is indeed more to this story.
SOHAR
I noticed an article of hers the other day grattan that
was not a cosy to the libs also,
she use to work for Fairfax I think, ???
what is this about a g l please
my say
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/carbon-economy/agl-to-proceed-with-450m-solar-plants-in-nsw-20130731-2qy10.html#ixzz2aah5P3E3
My Say
Thankyou!
He’s been in hospital for 5 weeks now.
Thanks for the offer but I’m a solitary sufferer. 🙂
Have people to talk to but you know…..I’m not generally one for sharing the misery.
Prefer to chill out on PBer and not think about it.
AussieAchmed
Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 1:13 pm | PERMALINK
Labor 74
Coalition 73
Others 3
Looks like “Others” will hold the balance of power
Another hung Parliament??
——————————
Newsltd/Abbott will llikely be the losers again
It will be worth while watching another Newsltd/Abbott cry ,
This from Scott Morrison on twitter
Why is Morrison and everyone else (e.g. the panel on The Drum last night) claiming that all you need is disclosure and it’s all okay? It’s a conflict of interest whether it’s disclosed or not. That’s the problem.
I take it that I can now bribe a Supreme Court judge and as long as I disclose it it’s all above board.
@GuardianAus: Scott Morrison took ‘spare seats’ on flight to Nauru, says Toll Group http://t.co/WslTcsJJlG
Seems a lot of questions being asked.
Posted Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 1:22 pm | Permalink
Michelle Grattan
morrison office can’t/wont answer question about toll funding trip, can anyone else in the opposition help]
Whaaaat?
Well colour me surprised, shocked even.
That must be close to the first time Grattan has asked a follow up question of the Libs for years.
The reason we gave up listening to ABC Radio National Brekky was her and Fran’s constant anti-Gillard pro-Abbott
spin every morning.
I’ll believe it when she actually comes up with the goods but that news that she seems to be following up is positive.
@ShoebridgeMLC: The Australian – as sensitive as a warthog on steroids ET @sspencer_63: Unfortunate front page of The Oz https://t.co/3zI9uRIBJo
Perhaps Morrison could have let one of the refugees on Nauru to take those seats back to Australia?
Or not.
Abbott onscreen 24
“@latikambourke: OL Tony Abbott announcing a taskforce.”
Does he think he is PM?
Its over reach
Rudd needs ot call a royal comission into the lnp over slipper
@latikambourke: Pretty sure Tony Abbott has already announced this policy? It’s the one AWU’s Paul Howes backs: http://t.co/aa5dNBzJx3
Abbott needs to come clean over Ashby
We know Abbott is supporting Brough
we know Abbott lied about pyne not contacting Ashby
We Know Abbott senior members Hockey, pyne , Julie Bishop lying about thier dealing wiht Ashby
If Abbott is serious about corruption
why wont he come clean about the corruption in the liberal party
He got Thistlethwaite’s name wrong.
Abbott acting like he is on solid ground. I suppose smear is solid ground for him
Here comes the Abbott gaffes
Gurtaur
Rudd shouldrespond to have a debate
With Abbott about ashby
Abbott is losing the election
Hah a Journo agrees with me.
“@russellmahoney: I’m not sure that attempting to paint PM Rudd as a beneficiary of corruption is something voters will buy. Sounds like overreach.”
its about rudd for abbott
If the media was doing thier job
they would be asking abbott about ashby
How is Rudd beneficiary of corruption?
Abbott is making a case why she should not be elected
A federal court judge found the libs/lnp in a politllcal plot
Abbott is making a case why he should not be elected, he says the guilty party should remian in opposition
A federal court judge found the libs/lnp in a politcial plot
“@AndoJC: What Abbott is saying about NSW is bordering on libel #auspol #ABCNews24”
Abbott lying about not flip flopping over naurau
Glad I missed that presser.