Four new poll results have been added for the BludgerTrack aggregate this week, with Newspoll handing Labor a relatively weak result and ReachTEL, Essential Research and Morgan recording little change. The force of Newspoll has pulled the two-party preferred total 0.4% in the direction of the Coalition, which nets it a handy three seats on the national projection. The high yield is testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s projected gain of six seats from last week has been halved by a 1.8% shift on the two-party vote. Some soft polling for Labor in Tasmania has also brought them down a peg in that state, but this is cancelled out by a gain in New South Wales, where the model continues to have them on the cusp of 25 and 26. The projected total still leaves us in hung parliament territory, but with the Coalition able to govern with help from Bob Katter.
Newspoll especially has been keenly scrutinised for the effect of Friday’s asylum seeker policy announcement, but this would seem a fraught endeavour at this stage. The asylum seeker issue played badly for the government throughout last week up until Kevin Rudd’s move to seize the initiative on Friday evening, news of which would have taken a while to filter through. Nonetheless, it’s interesting to note the latest polls are solidly better for the Greens than a particularly weak batch last week, and that Labor’s primary vote is down correspondingly. This of course will mostly come out in the wash on preferences, but a refugee backlash could nonetheless be of considerable consequence in the Senate.
Usually the six Senators returned by a state at a normal half-Senate election split evenly between the parties of the left and right, but Labor’s polling under Julia Gillard was bad enough to allow for the possibility of four right, two left results in as many as three states (or perhaps four, depending on what view you take of Nick Xenophon). Now it appears that Senate battles will proceed along more familiar lines, with Labor comfortably winning two seats and fighting it out with the lead Greens candidate for a third. Labor’s starting position in such contests is its surplus vote above 28.6%, which can generally be expected to leave them in about the 7% to 10% range where the Greens vote is fluctuating at present. So while Labor’s western Sydney MPs might have cause to cheer the Prime Minister’s new policy direction, its number three Senate candidates (including incumbents Ursula Stephens in New South Wales, Mark Furner in Queensland and Lin Thorp in Tasmania) will feel less pleased.
BludgerTrack arrives with some new toys this week, starting with a new set of graphs on the sidebar which plot the polling over the four weeks since the restoration. These look a bit threadbare at present, but they will have a story to tell soon enough. The Gillard era model remains preserved for posterity at the bottom. In between is another new feature, which projects the likelihood of seat outcomes under the present BludgerTrack results. This is done by simulating 100,000 election results from the ALP seat win probabilities I have been using to determine the seat projection totals and observing the frequency of each result. The chances of majority government are currently put at 42.8%, which increases to 50.4% if you take the view that Labor will win Melbourne from Adam Bandt. Labor’s chances of holding on with the support of whoever ends up representing Denison and Melbourne are put at 28.7%.
SO
I’m not impatient at all – the longer Rudd waits the bigger his loss. His problem, and now Labor’s problem, is that his ego tells him otherwise. If he waits till the very end then it’ll be Gillard numbers for the earwax eater.
confessions
That is what I am hearing
[I reckon Labor should be OK at least in Franklin (the one Labor held seat that is not being polled this weekend). Won’t be surprised if the poll shows them still behind in Bass and Braddon. Lyons will be the most interesting one because they were supposedly 59-41 behind there under Gillard but that’s a pretty suss result.]
Are they polling Denison?
Baseball bat is polished and ready for Labor inflicting Kevin gRubb upon us…
why don’t u both write a book called mutual admiration society.
go back read all your posts and pretend you have no idea who wrote them
and see what u think
my say@3425
A lot of Austin’s campaigning seems to be in the northern suburbs though. She’s not likely to win just by winning back the northern suburbs.
If they’d run her last time instead of JJ they would never have lost in the first place.
[SO
I’m not impatient at all – the longer Rudd waits the bigger his loss. His problem, and now Labor’s problem, is that his ego tells him otherwise]
It’s not clear you have a clue what you are writing, so I’ll just let your advice pass.
G20 is goer if Labor’s polls are still not there in States they need it.
G20 gives Rudd that air of superiority over Abbott and Hokey. Who would you rather see on the world stage with world leaders….Rudd or Abbott. One intellectual amongst peers the other a verbally challenged thug.
But if does go he should be spruiking the G20 now, what it is and what it means…so the public can get a sense of its importance.
My preference for Friday 13 September is as valid as any of yours.
I suggest you have sex and a good night’s sleep, all of you: you may respect yourselves in the morning.
ReachTEL are only polling Bass, Braddon and Lyons.
victoria:
In many ways I’d just rather the election is done and dusted and let the result falls where it does.
In that sense bring on the election. The sooner we get to put this sad and sorry period behind us the better.
confessions
The election will be upon us soon enough
Kevin Bonham
Right. The state government is a complete and total basket case. Difficult for the Feds to get any traction on anything
Get the feeling that some are secretly hoping Labor doesn’t win the election, out of spite to Rudd.
[Gary
Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 11:05 pm | Permalink
Direct Action will probably be dumped after the election so cost families nothing.
Piss weak Abbott is scared to tell the voters that isn’t he.
]
Be fair that, and relingishing civil control of the army are pretty uch his only policies. When policies are so thin on the ground you not going to give them up easily.
New2This@3454
What was the name of your former employers again?
Does anyone know how many stars the general that leads the Green Army will have?
agree was Jane around then.
I had not heard of JJ. till he stood, but new who he when he stood if that make sense,
but the liberal , person has only just come forward.
there was some very big ticket items wilkie could of pushed for Tasmania I want say what they are as we don’t want to give any ideas, but its to late now as it should of been done when we had small numbers.
but I was amazed he didn’t push the one I am thinking of.
may be not being local he didn’t think of it
I am hoping Jane will spread her wings to Kingston area soon.
a few housing commission homes in that area who would like school bonus, sandy bay well who knows uni students but then they may not be registered to vote in the area.
but I have good feeling about Jane.
she is very much liked from what I hear
I am going to offer to help as I think Julie is ok
but I will still do how to vote for Julie
spur212@3463
It also has been, up til now, that a lot of Tasmanians hate having the Greens pulling the strings of a Labor government, and they look to Canberra and see exactly the same thing.
But now that the federal parliament is apparently over, and the hung parliament apparently finished, and the PM who agreed to the too-generous deal with the Greens replaced, it may no longer look so bad.
Tasmanians have a history of voting very differently at state and federal elections when they want to.
They are long gone now Dave thanks to Labor… Oh and BTW go F yourself…
so apart from spending 30 billion for an internet service we already have and making us pay $1300 pa for their carbon scham what are the Libs offering us?
[Tasmanians have a history of voting very differently at state and federal elections when they want to.]
Maybe they will see the fed election as an opportunity to have a Labor majority government at the Fed level when a lot of them have essentially made up their minds to vote Liberal at the state election?
New2This@3470
Joe had your mark. Remember ?
[ Joe6pack
Posted Friday, December 21, 2012 at 8:55 pm | Permalink
New2this
Is a liar , yes he is many times I have asked him ,quite politely to name his former employer.
He has always either run away or is saying I am waiting for my entitlements.
Bullshit .Name them it is no skin of your nose now if they are in administration, it wont affect your payout one bit.
You sir are a bullshit artist and until you answer a simple ? that is what you will be seen as.]
confessions@3461
Have you forgotten?
The ‘sad and sorry period’ ended on 26th June 2013.
spur212
Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 11:37 pm | Permalink
Kevin Bonham
Right. The state government is a complete and total basket case. Difficult for the Feds to get any traction on anything
============================================================
don’t be to sure, that we have had to deal with the forestry and NO they are NOt a basket case what would a qlder know,Lara was thrown into the job, overnight
she has grown into it,
the forestry thing has taken a lot of managing, and a lot of time,
so what basket case are u thinking of , the liberals would of had to do the same had they been in, the difference is they would sacked members of the public service, lara chose not to,
the job situation is in the 19 year old age group.
. so perhaps it s labours in the forestry and,
that’s why today KR announced money for the company that makes veneer product
one poll showed recently that 30 percent of voters have not made up their minds, but having said that I expect the liberals here to win, its perception re the greens
but they have no policies, I wrote to one and ask about their policies had an email back I was told to read their website,, didn’t think that was the way to write back to voter, and I wonder also if gutwin, will be their leader eventually
[The sooner we get to put this sad and sorry period behind us the better.]
not exactly inspiring is it fess.
the best result for Australia will be a strong abbott victory that sees no hope of rudd continuing as opposition leader.
australia survived 8 years of fraser and 11 years of howard, it will survive 3 or six years of abbott.
labor really needs the whole sorry embarrassing saga of rudd behind it and get back to its true roots as it once was.
All hail Chattanooga, Tennessee, which has rolled out “the Gig” — a gigabit data line to all of its 220,000 people. Apparently the local power company decied to install it, and the rival company, bothered by the competition, tried to stop them, but the court struck down the challenge.
The rival then decided to match them so now everyone in Chattanooga has not one but two gigabit data lines passing their homes, and they are getting this at lower prices than they were getting data before.
Now businesses that need data fast and cheap are coming to Chattanooga. Hmmm
confessions
Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 11:34 pm | Permalink
victoria:
CONFESSIONS.
In many ways I’d just rather the election is done and dusted and let the result falls where it does.
In that sense bring on the election. The sooner we get to put this sad and sorry period behind us the better.
=========================================
do YOU KNOW WHAT DEAR I THINK JULIA WOULD DISAGREE WITH YOU SHE WOULD WANT A RESOUNDING VICTORY
good night
[The rival then decided to match them so now everyone in Chattanooga has not one but two gigabit data lines passing their homes, and they are getting this at lower prices than they were getting data before.]
Well really this is capitalism at its worst. There was no need for two lines. Just a wholesale company and as many private companies as wish to sell services.
i.e. the NBN model.
Fran – Google laying fibre too.
Adam Smith must be smiling.
ShowsOn@3479
Absolutely.
It is only mad ideologues who would support the wasted investment in needless duplication of infrastructure.
I absolutely despaired when we got two TV cables rolled out in many suburbs.
CASTLE
AND WHAT IMAGINARY ROOTS WOULD THAT BE
explain,
I see no change in our values,, look all of u get over the fact the Julia is not PM
its so childish,,,,
find a blog that lets u find the old labor where that is or what ever it is /
the ELECTION IS NOT ALL ABOUT YOU. ITS ABOUT SAVING THE COUNTRRY AND JULIAS GREAT POLICIES
the labor party has not changed the world has
we have to change to.
join the greens if u want fairy land
[the labor party has not changed the world has
we have to change to.
join the greens if u want fairy land]
Good on ya My Say!
[I absolutely despaired when we got two TV cables rolled out in many suburbs.]
Well you know the bloody irony of that now. Areas that have either Telstra or Optus HFC (or both) will be rolled out LAST under the Coalition plan. They won’t get copper to the home / node until 2018/19!
In the mean time, if they can’t get ADSL, then they are stuck getting broadband over HFC without any competition! Or I guess 3G, but that is increasingly congested in many areas.
castle:
Both major parties are currently led by empty vessels. Hardly inspiring, I agree.
Aussies secret weapon unveiled ahead of third test
Fran Barlow
‘All hail Chattanooga, Tennessee, which has rolled out “the Gig” — a gigabit data line to all of its 220,000 people.
Now businesses that need data fast and cheap are coming to Chattanooga. Hmm’
What do you mean Fran, by Hmm.
CW:
[What do you mean Fran, by Hmm.]
Well I’d heard that 25Mb was all anyone needed …
my say@3475
That was an EMRS poll. They have issues with undecided rates that are higher than other polls get. I think it’s because they pressure their staff to get interviews done too quickly.
paaptsef:
[Aussies secret weapon unveiled ahead of third test]
Boof is watching the ball well in this shot, but there’s a lot of space between bat and front pad for such a defensive push.
[labor really needs the whole sorry embarrassing saga of rudd behind it and get back to its true roots as it once was.]
Yeh that of backstabbing for internal party politics. A Rudd victory is the best chance of continuing on with some internal reform at least.
Gillard just helped perpetuate the internal Labor sickness, she became part of it, its agent.
Gillard is essentially the Prime Minister that should never had been. Well not for some years later at least. Her tenure and the way she achieved put a knife through Labor’s heart, and it was only a heart transplant that was going to save its sorry arse.
[Baseball bat is polished and ready for Labor inflicting Kevin gRubb upon us…]
I expect youve spent a fair bit of time polishing yer bat mate, and another three years wont hurt you.
ShowsOn@3484
My eldest son couldn’t get cable or ADSL so went for 4G. Damn fast at present, much faster than my cable, but will slow with more users in his area. It also costs a lot more.
I think there is a good case for shared infrastructure for mobile telephony and data too, although not as strong as for cable.
I had yet another discussion with a recalcitrant who should and must know better.
A technician and more, well versed, Swiss by birth, clockwork, perfect mechanism.
Hills are alive. Apart from the sounds of reception.
My Say:
[if u want fairy land …]
I’d be surprised if, when polled, most people wouldn’t like fairy land a lot better than the land we have. It sounds very congenial. 🙂
Fran.
My 2971 crikey whitey Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 5:37 pm | Permalink
STOP THE BOATS,INDEED! FAT CHANCE!
It took me about as long to locate and edit this reference for posting as it took Tony’s Clowns of Thorns to develop their Operation Sovereign Borders. This is a far more devastating and useful guide as to why neither parties current solutions could have a hope of working.
Bookmark, read and weep.
Migrant Smuggling in Asia
A Thematic Review of Literature
Printed: Bangkok, August 2012
Authorship: United Nations Offce on Drugs and Crime (UNODC)
Copyright © 2012, UNODC
e-ISBN: 978-974-680-331-
A publication of the Coordination and Analysis Unit
of the Regional Centre for East Asia and the Pacific
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements.. 1
Abbreviations and acronyms.. 2
List of diagrams and tables.. 5
Executive summary.. 6
Policy recommendations for improving evidence-based knowledge.. 11
Country situation overview.. 12
Introducing the research methodology.. 24
Chapter One: Cross-country Findings by thematic issues.. 31
Introduction.. 31
How are migrant smuggling and trafficking in persons conceptualized in the literature?.. 32
What methodologies are being used in research on migrant smuggling and irregular migration?.. 34
What information is available about stocks and flows of irregular and smuggled migrants?.. 37
What are the major routes involved in irregular migration and migrant smuggling?.. 41
What is known about the profiles and motives of migrant smugglers?.. 41
What is known about the profile of irregular and smuggled migrants?.. 44
What is known about the nature or characteristics of relationships between migrant smugglers
and smuggled migrants?.. 45
What is known about the organization of migrant smugglers?.. 48
What is known about the modus operandi of smuggling?.. 50
What is known about migrant smuggling fees and their mobilization?.. 56
What is known about the human and social costs of migrant smuggling?.. 59
Factors that fuel irregular migration and migrant smuggling.. 62
Conclusion.. 63
Chapter Two: Afghanistan.. 69
Chapter Three: Cambodia.. 83
Chapter Four: China.. 93
Chapter Five: India.. 115
Chapter Six: Indonesia ..131
Chapter Seven: Lao People’s Democratic Republic.. 143
Chapter Eight: Malaysia.. 153
Chapter Nine: Maldives.. 163
Chapter Ten: Myanmar.. 167
Chapter Eleven: Pakistan.. 177
Chapter Twelve: Singapore.. 191
Chapter Thirteen: Sri Lanka.. 197
Chapter Fourteen: Thailand.. 203
Chapter Fifteen: Viet Nam.. 215
Annexes.. 223
Annex A: Complete list of databases, catalogues and websites searched.. 225
Annex B: Table of criteria to use for initial bibliographic searches.. 228
Annex C: Key words used in the annotated bibliography.. 229
http://www.unodc.org/documents/southeastasiaandpacific//Publications/2012/Thematic_Review_eBook_version_17_August_2012.pdf
Lefty
[I expect youve spent a fair bit of time polishing yer bat mate, and another three years wont hurt you.]
Poor advice Lefty … he could go blind.
Thats why we have medicare, Fran 🙂
This week’s Mike Carlton column.
[….
In a week of hullabaloo over Labor’s supposed Papua New Guinea solution, some important economic news slipped through almost unnoticed.
Inflation is at record lows. The Bureau of Statistics reported that for the year to the end of June, the underlying inflation rate – the important figure – came in at just 2.2 per cent.
This demolishes the fear campaign that Tony Abbott and the Tories have waged for so long. Abbott, you will remember, stumped the country to brand the carbon tax “a wrecking ball with unimaginable and devastating consequences for the economy”. On and on he went, the horror mounting. Whyalla in South Australia would become “a ghost town, an economic wasteland”. More stupidly still, Barnaby Joyce blathered that Australian families would be paying $100 for the Sunday lamb roast. Prices for everything would go through the roof.
The inflation figures expose these lies. The carbon tax registered barely a blip. But this is par for the Coalition course. With Labor on the rebound, Abbott indulges in ever greater hyperbole and folly.
Outflanked on the refugee crisis, he and Julie Bishop and Scott Morrison have managed to offend both the Indonesians and the Papua New Guineans with a volley of diplomatic gaffes.
His latest conjuring trick, the grandly titled “Operation Sovereign Borders” would be run by a three-star military officer – a lieutenant-general or vice-admiral – who, he says, would report directly to Morrison as immigration minister.
The Tories have always thrilled to the military solution: the march to the sound of the guns, the bark of orders, the flash of gold braid. The flim flam goes on. Having demonised asylum seekers as illegal queue-jumpers for so long, Abbott and the frightful Morrison have switched to shedding crocodile tears for their deaths at sea. The hypocrisy is disgusting.
… ]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-did-we-contain-our-excitement-20130726-2qpan.html#ixzz2aA4Lt0GA
Report that ReachTEL were in the field for Tassie polling last night and that questions included voting intention and PPM.