Four new poll results have been added for the BludgerTrack aggregate this week, with Newspoll handing Labor a relatively weak result and ReachTEL, Essential Research and Morgan recording little change. The force of Newspoll has pulled the two-party preferred total 0.4% in the direction of the Coalition, which nets it a handy three seats on the national projection. The high yield is testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s projected gain of six seats from last week has been halved by a 1.8% shift on the two-party vote. Some soft polling for Labor in Tasmania has also brought them down a peg in that state, but this is cancelled out by a gain in New South Wales, where the model continues to have them on the cusp of 25 and 26. The projected total still leaves us in hung parliament territory, but with the Coalition able to govern with help from Bob Katter.
Newspoll especially has been keenly scrutinised for the effect of Friday’s asylum seeker policy announcement, but this would seem a fraught endeavour at this stage. The asylum seeker issue played badly for the government throughout last week up until Kevin Rudd’s move to seize the initiative on Friday evening, news of which would have taken a while to filter through. Nonetheless, it’s interesting to note the latest polls are solidly better for the Greens than a particularly weak batch last week, and that Labor’s primary vote is down correspondingly. This of course will mostly come out in the wash on preferences, but a refugee backlash could nonetheless be of considerable consequence in the Senate.
Usually the six Senators returned by a state at a normal half-Senate election split evenly between the parties of the left and right, but Labor’s polling under Julia Gillard was bad enough to allow for the possibility of four right, two left results in as many as three states (or perhaps four, depending on what view you take of Nick Xenophon). Now it appears that Senate battles will proceed along more familiar lines, with Labor comfortably winning two seats and fighting it out with the lead Greens candidate for a third. Labor’s starting position in such contests is its surplus vote above 28.6%, which can generally be expected to leave them in about the 7% to 10% range where the Greens vote is fluctuating at present. So while Labor’s western Sydney MPs might have cause to cheer the Prime Minister’s new policy direction, its number three Senate candidates (including incumbents Ursula Stephens in New South Wales, Mark Furner in Queensland and Lin Thorp in Tasmania) will feel less pleased.
BludgerTrack arrives with some new toys this week, starting with a new set of graphs on the sidebar which plot the polling over the four weeks since the restoration. These look a bit threadbare at present, but they will have a story to tell soon enough. The Gillard era model remains preserved for posterity at the bottom. In between is another new feature, which projects the likelihood of seat outcomes under the present BludgerTrack results. This is done by simulating 100,000 election results from the ALP seat win probabilities I have been using to determine the seat projection totals and observing the frequency of each result. The chances of majority government are currently put at 42.8%, which increases to 50.4% if you take the view that Labor will win Melbourne from Adam Bandt. Labor’s chances of holding on with the support of whoever ends up representing Denison and Melbourne are put at 28.7%.
Sean Tisme@3388
Families want to know how much direct action will cost them.
Oakeshott put a revised bill into parliament as a private members bill because Gillard and Labor was too gutless to have her name on it, despite previously proclaiming to the media how she was going to do so to embarrass the coalition… only to realise half her party was embarrassed to have their name on it.
Actually, immaculate ascendency is a pretty accurate term to describe her becoming leader.
If there had’ve been a leadership ballot the day after that night it would’ve been an overwhelming victory to her.
No wonder the Golden Child never tested his numbers with a formal vote. 🙂
Just like Mod Lib is all for the Greens’ asylum seeker policy because he likes it when people drown and die.
A classic post!
Classic 🙂
News is out that SmugFace McSmarmyPants is telling world leaders that he’ll be going to the G20 and therefore election will be delayed until after then.
Not a good look. Kevin747 delays an election just so he can jaunt overseas and hobnob and achieve… what outcome? It’ll play badly, remind people about his constant trips and greater interest in being elsewhere – and lead to a poll dip.
The longer time-frame will have more problems crop-up in PNG, enough that his ability to deliver will be called into question (given it’s only been a week and it already is), just like the whole pink batts thing again.
Mind you, the Liberals could still flub it by reminding everyone how much they suck with economics again – just like they did in 2010.
Gillard should’ve withdrawn from the ballot that she lost in the interests of party unity.
…and you are trying to pretend you are not Truthy!
Haha 🙂
Dutton is full of bullshit!
Sorry but……..
Kevin Bonham
My feeling is the ALP are screwed in Tasmania regardless of who’s leader as there’s a whole range of external factors converging against the federal and state government. It should be very interesting to see the results nonetheless
dtt
You ARE joking, right?
I did just suffer, here on PB, through three years of the most atrocious whining whinging crying sobbing dribbling dummy-spitting sulk over Ruddy getting tossed for being a tosser. didn’t I?
Ferrrk, it was worse than my gallstones.
You seem upset, I guess not enough people drowned today for your liking.
DTT
Labor is a very united movement.
Confessions the Malyasian deal fell over because it was an ill thought out ill delivered policy that fell over in the High court.
What failed in parliament was Gillard’s attempt to Remove the hard won protections for human rights forced into the Act by Petro Georgio and Judy Moylan – along with Labor led on this issue very vocably and well by Julia Gillard.
All that was needed for the Malaysian deal to work was a SIGNATURE you know from Malaysia. It was folly of the highest order to even try to send anyone to Malaysia with such verbal only agreement. Gillard needed a political “win” to keep opponents at bay and rushed the deal. It should have been obvious to any one with any legal training that it would fall over in the high court.
You might by a hamburger on that basis, but not a sit down restaurant meal.
Nice try John. Nothing like the pink bats.
daretotread@3390
Yes, the attacks on Rudd have been unceasing since June 2010 and continue unabated. The attackers are simply pathetic.
Sean Tisme@3402
It is essential families are told the cost of direct action.
Why would Rudd need to delay the election so he can go to the G20?
He can go after he wins, can’t he? He is going to win, he told us it was a sure thing as long as he was made leader, right?
Oh btw folks.
I am not the only one in Australia thinking and saying these things, so don’t try to shove my head in your sand.
There’s no need to lie. He never said he was a sure thing, he just pointed out that the polls under Gillard were so bad that the Coalition winning the senate had become more than likely.
Can you supply that quote of Rudd’s?
WOW, word for word what Truthy would have said.
Welcome back, Truthy. Why did you take on the name “ShowsOn” this incarnation?
Dee@3394
That is a point that should be hammered at every opportunity.
Sure, most people saying these things are going to vote Labor anyway or vote Green and preference Labor above Liberal.
So it doesn’t really matter.
spur212
Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 11:10 pm | Permalink
Kevin Bonham
My feeling is the
===========================================================every one I know dislikes abbott could use a stronger word.
I even think wilkie will lose his seat, I hope he does
jane Austin is doing marvellous campaigning
so take any poll with a grain of salt
I do not know who said that here. Leaving aside the hideous grammar, has the weapon so alleged been proffered in evidence?
why do liberals use words that are violent
I’m sure that Abbott will invite the LOTO to the G20 so Rudd can go to polls now – no worries. He’ll get to shake hands for last time with Obama.
Where did Truthy say that you like it when people drown and die?
Please find me such a quote. If you can’t find it I guess that means you are a liar who likes it when people drown and die.
puff think u drink far to much lemon juice
confessions@3403
When ambushed, a tactical withdrawal makes sense.
Then you live to fight another day.
Oh, remind me what happened in June this year. 👿
No, Puff, that isn’t true.
We were assured by his boosters that first he would bring world peace, and THEN he would win the federal election.
🙂
Gary,
No direct quote, just his White Termite in Shining Armour Saving the ALP from Certain Doom stunt.
“I’m sure that Abbott will invite the LOTO ”
Why would a back-bencher be in a posiiton to invite the LOTO to anythning ?
Actually you were assured he wouldn’t lose in a 1975 style landslide which is what Gillard was headed for.
fess,
Thanks, I missed that bit. And then Australia will land a man (def not a woman) on the moon.
Once you have checked your dictionary you may rethink your adjective and your noun.
Julia Gillard was dragooned. Live with it!
Showson
Is that all?
But he can walk on water, white-ant his own Prime Minister until the polls fall into the sinkhole, suck up to Murdoch and spin ten plates on a stick.
What’s a little election then?
YAWN
And least Mod Lib talks about policy – drowning people – you talk about issues that were resolved a month ago.
SO
Yes, that’s correct, and even that he won’t deliver if he keeps delaying the election date.
No Puff. Man (sic) has already landed on the moon.
To be intrepid he must do something truly novel, like lead a party in govt which has passed the most number of legislative bills in history, passed wholly nation-defining legislation like carbon pricing, and do it all while leading a minority government.
We have used this system of the Prime Minister requesting the GOvernor General dissolve parliament for over 100 years. I see no reason why we should change it just because you are a bit impatient.
so sad that people who liked and admired Julia
are now being so sarcastic,,,,
and it seems its just the female of the species who cannot accept reality
I even get the feeling they wish the polls had stayed the same
we thank god they didn’t,
————————————————————also imagine how jg would of felt if we had of lost
and now we want, through no fault of JGs,
the immaturity of some is mind boggling.
and its time that cannot be reclaimed because its all history
‘Nite – see you at next set of polls: 53-54/47-46 to Libs of course. Rudd is mincemeat and couldn’t happen to a nicer earwax eater.
Team Rudd are deliberating between the 31st August or 21st September
This little black duck@3437
Yes, in a multi-stage operation.
First stage was to get her to write her acceptance speech 2 weeks before the coup that so surprised her.
She must have suffered a period of amnesia.
And if Gillard had lost in such a landslide that the Coalition won the Senate all of that would’ve counted for nothing.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rudd-needs-png-solution-to-work-quickly-for-a-win-20130726-2qppa.html#ixzz2a9r8SLh4
spur212@3410
The primary converging factor, IMO, is the state government.
I reckon Labor should be OK at least in Franklin (the one Labor held seat that is not being polled this weekend). Won’t be surprised if the poll shows them still behind in Bass and Braddon. Lyons will be the most interesting one because they were supposedly 59-41 behind there under Gillard but that’s a pretty suss result.
victoria:
For real? That does surprise me.