ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition

A second post-Ruddstoration ReachTEL result finds little change on the first, and confirms the impression that Malcolm Turnbull is strongly favoured over both the current contenders.

ReachTEL has published results of an automated phone poll of 2922 respondents across the country which has the Coalition leading 51-49, down from 52-48 in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change, from primary votes of 39.3% for Labor (up 0.5%, 45.4% for the Coalition (up 0.3%) and 8.3% for the Greens (down 0.4%). ReachTEL shows Kevin Rudd with an unusually narrow 52.4-47.6 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but the knife is nonetheless turned on Abbott by a result on voting intention under a Malcolm Turnbull leadership which has the Coalition lead at 58-42. Turnbull is also favoured 65-35 over Rudd as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,388 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  2. [izatso?
    Posted Saturday, July 20, 2013 at 9:37 pm | PERMALINK
    Bemused I have been up since yesterday morning posting on here about this Deterent. You have no grounds or proof that will show cognitive aloofness on my part. you absolute Dickwit.]

    …perhaps a little sleep might help in that case!

  3. KEVIN Rudd’s Papua New Guinea solution has bit savagely in west Java, where Afghan asylum seekers have immediately begun telling people smugglers they are cancelling their planned boat trips to Christmas Island.

    After the Prime Minister’s announcement, it did not take long for the news to circulate in the mountain-top resort city of Cisarua, where an estimated 5000 asylum seekers were awaiting to make boat trips.

    By Saturday morning, groups of Afghan men, who are highly visible on the streets, were saying they would never accept settlement in Papua New Guinea and began instructing intermediaries working for the smugglers that they would not be going.

    if the media can be believed its working already

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/rudd8217s-decision-will-stop-the-boats-afghan-asylum-seekers-declare/story-fncynjr2-1226682491915#ixzz2ZaWTdqm2

  4. World champion economy, good slogan… And a good initiative by the ALP.

    Ihttp://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/alp-pamphlets-cricket-fans-at-ashes-20130720-2qbf2.html

    Interesting point re overseas voters favouring the ALP by a margin of 2:1

  5. http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/03/tasmanian-devils-not-on-verge-of.html

    Updated my article on Tasmanian devils with my comments on the Shree mine decision last week in which then Minister Burke was found to have stuffed up the approval process. Basically the decision was a win on a technicality only and there is nothing to stop the decision being revisited and reapproved. This has not stopped an enormous amount of hoohah about the decision and the species as usual in such cases. I single out a few examples of bad reporting but could have found dozens.

  6. Sean – the Malaysia solution was blocked by Tony Abbott and his band of clowns because they wanted to keep the boats coming. The drop in the numbers of boats after the Malaysia solution was announced indicated that it worked as a deterrent even before it was implemented. I think you need to go back to Liberal Party headquarters for new instructions. Tony Abbott is responsible for the open slather given to criminal gangs in Indonesia to exploit vulnerable people, taking the life savings of vulnerable people for passage across the high seas on disposable boats. The ‘Liberals’ are beneath contempt.

  7. “Interesting point re overseas voters favouring the ALP by a margin of 2:1” – probably because they don’t have News, Fairfax and the ABC ramming Tory propaganda down their throats every day.

  8. [ groups of Afghan men, who are highly visible on the streets, were saying they would never accept settlement in Papua New Guinea ]

    mmmm. Desperate AS seekers in fear of lives refusing refuge?

    Bluff called and scammers found wanting.

    People traffickers saying, hey we’ve made a lot of money anyway.

    abbott & morrison – but …but…but not so quick.

  10. [Sean – the Malaysia solution was blocked by Tony Abbott and his band of clowns because they wanted to keep the boats coming.]
    Don’t forget that the Liberals were supported by their friends the Greens.

  11. I got the impression on the news tonight that if the Libs win they will not go through with the PPG solution. Tone said something like he will not depend on a another country to sove our problems. That’s the meaning of what he said anyway.

  13. I am waiting for SHY and Tony to give a joint press conference to complain about how nasty Labor has been to people smugglers.

  16. Psephos
    [Of course the judiciary is swayed by public opinion. Specifically, by the opinion of their peers. In the days when the judiciary was drawn exclusively from the public schools, it was opinion at the Melbourne Club that counted. Since the 70s, there has been a big change in the composition of the judiciary. Now half of them listen to the Melbourne Club and the other half listen to Phillip Adams. None of them pay much attention to the Australian people. On this issue, both right and left-wing elites tend to share the same elite opinions (vis Malcolm Fraser). It’s this bipartisan elite contempt for the views of the Australian people that fuels right-wing populism.]

    I have never seen anything approaching this level of arrant nonsense from someone who purports to be officially raional. No wonder you are surplus to requirements.

  17. Abbott said he will not depend on another country to solve our problems?

    But what about working with the Indonesians?

    What about Nauru 😆

    Abbott is losing it!

  18. [Not sure if this has been mentioned before, but the Govt is now offering a “bounty” of $200,000 on the head of people smugglers in Australia]

    Like Captain Emad? Remember him.. snuck through the backdoor, then Labor let him walk scott free through the front door

  19. [Abbott said he will not depend on another country to solve our problems?]
    What about his own claims of a recent deal or understanding with Indonesia?

  22. I think his more fundamental mistake is in identifying it as solely our problem.

    Wait a second, I think he’s implying we should simply accept all refugees. If we can’t depend on other countries, we have to deal with them locally. It’s hard to believe he wants to lock them up for life or shoot them, so that just leaves taking them in.

    I never knew he was such a humanitarian!

  26. [I am waiting for SHY and Tony to give a joint press conference to complain about how nasty Labor has been to people smugglers.]
    Andrew Robb and Joe Hockey will be there too demanding new tax concessions for the people smuggling industry.

  27. More of the same. The messages should go to Stephen perhaps.

    [Julia Gillard has a website — not much there as yet, but you can leave a message for her –]

  28. sohar@44

    So Abbott picked up about 10 points on Rudd on the other polls re better leader – the poll is a joke, as too is Turnbull-Rudd 55-45 I could believe, but 65-35…

    ReachTEL PPMs are different to other pollsters’ PPMs and can’t be directly compared with them.

    The way PPM is measured by every other pollster results in the incumbent PM at the time having a big advantage. That is if the two parties are even and the two leaders have the same approval ratings, then the PM will have about a 16-point lead as Preferred Prime Minister over the Opposition Leader.

    Somehow ReachTEL’s method of forcing a response between the two (disallowing a don’t-know response) gets rid of incumbent advantage either largely or entirely.

    It may be that ReachTEL is getting it right and every other pollster is getting it wrong.

  29. Pseph is saying that the judiciary do listen to the opinion of others (eg friends among the elite) but do not respond to public opinion.

    That sounds reasonable to me, and somewhat along the lines of what the judiciary should think that their role is.

    Not sure why JV thinks this is not the case.

  32. showson

    greens might have been mainly diligent and supportive member of minority expediting lots of legislation but they cant help public spats at labor which play into liberals hands, first ets 2009, then continual name calling up to withdrawing from govt this year which abbott seized on, then rejection of malaysia and now … they have no policy on boats migrants except open border – which is utopian still in the our global world

  33. Yes, what should happen is for the High Court to be disbanded under a referendum, and the rights of people determined from day to day by decree from the government of the day through regulation governed by focus groups in the seat of Lindsay.

  34. Re Gary @ 2261 – I got the impression on the news tonight that if the Libs win they will not go through with the PPNG solution

    If the Libs win they will accept the PNG solution if it works and blame Labor if it doesn’t. They’ll also blame Labor when ‘turn back the boats’ doesn’t work. It wouldn’t surprise me if they decided to allow and expand the Malaysia solution. And if all else fails, the ‘Liberals’ and News Limited will decide that asylum seekers were not, after all, such a big problem.

  35. For the benefit of confessions, Bobalot and any other deluded fools who attribute the PNG solution to work done under The Great Gillard, there is an article by Michael Gordon on the ipad version of The Age which states:
    [Chat that kindled tough talk

    Michael Gordon

    The inspiration for Kevin Rudd’s Tampa moment came in the form of an innocent question, posed over a light lunch by the Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea a few days after Julia Gillard’s demise.

    “What can we do more to co-operate with people smuggling?” Peter O’Neill asked Mr Rudd as they sat on the verandah of the New Australian Prime Minister’s home in the inner Brisbane suburb of Norman Park.

    The result is more ambitious, and certainly more controversial, than the Pacific Solution crafted after John Howard refused to allow the Norwegian freighter Tampa that had rescued hundreds of Afghan asylum seekers to enter Australian waters.]
    I cannot provide a link as it is not on the internet and seems to only appear in the ipad version in that form.

  37. And like all trade associations, the legal frat look after their own. Wouldn’t be at all surprised if Harmers gets off with just a mild tut tut in the Fed Court Ashby judgement.

  40. Sounds like the PNG arrangements are already stopping boats.

    Disaster for LNP and people smugglers.

    Could give a little boost to the Greens but this will be short term.

    As long as the policy can be put into effective action quickly I expect the outcome will be hardly any boats will now arrive. After some months Australia will be able to close down detention camps onshore and offshore, including in PNG. Deaths at sea will stop. No-one, no adults, no children will be being detained.

    Australia will take an increased quota of the most needy refugees from the region and further afield. Priority can be given on the basis of need.

    As with the price on carbon, people will soon wonder what all the fuss was about.

  42. Psephos

    [I think we’ve smoked JV out – he’s a lawyer. Sir Jaundiced View QC.]

    Interesting use of the personal pronoun ‘we’. ASIO? ASIS?

  45. JV 2283 Alternatively, scrap elections and all that messy democratic crap and just leave it to the wisdom of the legal frat.

  49. Rossmore, if you count saying “I’m a lawyer” as being smoked out, then I have a bucketful of subtlety to sell you ;).

  50. Rossmore

    [JV 2283 Alternatively, scrap elections and all that messy democratic crap and just leave it to the wisdom of the legal frat]

    Rather a rushed, and false, dilemma there surely. 🙂

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