ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition

A second post-Ruddstoration ReachTEL result finds little change on the first, and confirms the impression that Malcolm Turnbull is strongly favoured over both the current contenders.

ReachTEL has published results of an automated phone poll of 2922 respondents across the country which has the Coalition leading 51-49, down from 52-48 in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change, from primary votes of 39.3% for Labor (up 0.5%, 45.4% for the Coalition (up 0.3%) and 8.3% for the Greens (down 0.4%). ReachTEL shows Kevin Rudd with an unusually narrow 52.4-47.6 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but the knife is nonetheless turned on Abbott by a result on voting intention under a Malcolm Turnbull leadership which has the Coalition lead at 58-42. Turnbull is also favoured 65-35 over Rudd as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,388 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  11. ‘For the benefit of confessions, Bobalot and any other deluded fools who attribute the PNG solution to work done under The Great Gillard, there is an article by Michael Gordon’

    It’s not fair,Bemused, leave them to their delusions.

  13. Pseph speed up, there is world of difference between the West Riding and the West country. As an East Riding man the West country is a foreign country, but the West Riding is full of bloody idiots.

  14. [JULIA Gillard announced soon after arriving in Port Moresby yesterday that construction of a permanent centre for processing asylum-seekers would start on Manus island in July.

    The Prime Minister thanked her Papua New Guinean counterpart Peter O’Neill for his “leadership and support” on the issue of boatpeople.

    “We will work alongside him to get this done,” Mr Gillard said at the start of her two-day visit.

    But Australia will not, she said, open the centre, as Mr O’Neill has told The Australian he would like, to asylum-seekers from other countries in the Pacific region.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/pm-kicks-off-png-visit-by-making-manus-asylum-centre-permanent/story-fn59niix-1226638959942

  15. Riding is derived from Thirding, a division into three parts. So Yorkshire is traditionally divided into three – the East, North and West Ridings. I’m not sure why the Canadians adopted it to mean electorate.

  17. The only ‘solution’ of significance around this discussion is the one being imbibed by the partisan hacks from the duopoly bottle.

  19. The difference between Gillard’s regional solution and Rudd’s is that Rudd’s involves a clear statement that no-one who comes to Australia by boat will get a visa. That’s the key political point.

  20. [8 Sep 2012

    Manus processing centre agreed by O’Neill, Gillard

    SKY NEWS

    AUSTRALIAN PRIME MINISTER Julia Gillard has left the APEC summit in Vladivostok prematurely because of her father’s death, but not before completing some important diplomatic business.

    Ms Gillard and Papua New Guinea prime minister Peter O’Neill this morning signed the formal agreement that will allow Australia to send asylum seekers to Manus for processing.]

    http://asopa.typepad.com/asopa_people/2012/09/manus-processing-centre-agreed-by-oneill-gillard.html

  22. I do remember JGPM saying all ASs would be sent to Manus Is for processing and resettling in countries other than Australia. Obviously this had not yet been agreed with the PNG govt.

    Rudd worshippers are complete bloody idiots who can’t even use Google.

  24. Psephos mentioned way back at 1597 that there was no easy way to search the blog. There is a way actually using the ‘advanced search’ function of google and putting in the address of this blog.

    And below is the 3 year old post by Psephos saying no visas for boat arrivals.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/07/02/morgan-marginal-seats-polling/?comment_page=15/#comments

    Psephos
    Posted Sunday, July 4, 2010 at 3:50 pm | PERMALINK
    I think lefties should brace themselves for a fairly radical statement by the PM on border security. The only way to stop unauthorised boat arrivals, short of the use of force, is to announce that no-one who arrives in Australian waters by boat will ever get an Australian visa. They’ll either sit at Xmas I until they agree to go home, or they’ll be towed back to Indonesia, or they’ll detained somewhere else offshore. I have no inside info on what Gillard intends, but that’s what I’d do. It will take something as radical as that to shift public perceptions on this. Abbott will be able to say “I told you so,” but that won’t sustain him until the election – the issue will be effectively neutralised.

  25. abbott’s new campaign is set – post carbon, people et all

    it will the horrible new labor tax FBT – which is tax on rich, hence class warfare – punishing the rich. expect rallies of car salesmen and execs on parliament lawns with new model luxuries in background and slogans as ‘dont ditch the rich’ etc … abbott will find a new cause for his strange catholicised emotional malaise.

  26. Question: if Gillard had got up and said “No-one who comes to Australia by boat will get a visa,” would the Ruddites have denounced her for “lurching to the right”? I suspect so.

  27. Sadly the powers that be in the70s disolved the Ridings of Yorkshire into new municipal boundaries, but the tradition endures and local patriots include the East Riding of Yorkshire in their home address. Much the same in the North and West Ridings.

  30. Although the new wrinkle in Rudd’s policy is that boat arrivals will actually be settled in PNG, not just detained there until they agree to go home. Under Rudd’s policy, they don’t get any choice in the matter – if they try to come to Australia by boat, they’ll finish up in PNG.

  33. Actually Psephos I don’t think Julia could have done it back in 2010. That was before the Christmas Island drownings and so she would not have been able to get a no visa for boat people policy through Caucus.

  36. [The difference between Gillard’s regional solution and Rudd’s is that Rudd’s involves a clear statement that no-one who comes to Australia by boat will get a visa. That’s the key political point.]

    If it is THE key political point, then has Australia effectively withdrawn from the Convention relating to the status of status of refugees?

  39. [Actually Psephos I don’t think Julia could have done it back in 2010. That was before the Christmas Island drownings and so she would not have been able to get a no visa for boat people policy through Caucus.]

    Yes that’s probably true.

  40. The level of elegant sophistication around cruelty to refugees – as if it’s reasonable in the circumstances – would be amusing if it weren’t so absurd in terms of basic human dignity. What we are observing on PB is a distillation of the worst elements of party political oportunism. Shameful.

  41. 2337

    Maybe you should take his name a the kind of nominative determinism that covers what should be done to the name holder.

  44. [If it is THE key political point, then has Australia effectively withdrawn from the Convention relating to the status of status of refugees?]

    There’s nothing in the Convention that says that refugees get to choose what country they are resettled in.

  46. Psephos

    [There’s nothing in the Convention that says that refugees get to choose what country they are resettled in.]

    No, because that isn’t the point. The point is protection. Final settlement comes later.

  50. Rossmore
    [JV 2340 take off that white wig and get real, you sanctimonious, holier than though git.

    I always start to think I might be making a point or two when I see that sort of abuse.

    What about the issues? Got any intelligent input?

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