Longman is centred on Caboolture and Burpengary in Brisbane’s outer north, from which it extends eastwards to Bribie Island and the mainland coast immediately opposite and westwards to the semi-rural townships of Woodford and D’Aguilar. The seat was created at the 1996 election from territory that had mostly been in Fisher, which thereafter assumed a more coastal orientation along the southern half of the Sunshine Coast. Caboolture and Bribie Island have been the constants of the electorate amid frequently changing boundaries, which have variously appended the electorate’s core either with outer northern Brisbane suburbs or semi-rural hinterland. The former was most evident when the boundaries encompassed the coastal suburb of Deception Bay at the time of the 2007 election, which was the only occasion thus far when the seat has been won by Labor. This area was transferred to Petrie in the redistribution before the 2010 election, with Longman regaining the Woodford and D’Aguilar area it had temporarily lost to Fisher.
Longman had a notional Liberal margin of 1.6% on its creation at the 1996 election, to which the party’s candidate Mal Brough added a further 10.0% in the context of a disastrous result for Labor throughout Queensland. Brough was nonetheless lucky to survive the 1998 election after a 1.6% redistribution shift and a 9.1% swing back to Labor left him with only 0.5% to spare. After picking up successive swings of 1.8% in 2001 and 5.2% in 2004, Brough’s margin was pegged back by redistribution to 6.6% going into the 2007 election. By this time Brough had emerged as a senior figure in the Howard government, serving progressively as Employment Services Minister from 2001 to 2004, Assistant Treasurer and Revenue Minister from 2004 to 2006, and Families and Community Services and Indigenous Affairs from 2006 until the Howard government’s defeat a year later. His profile was considerably raised by the latter role, in which he oversaw the government’s sweeping intervention into Northern Territory indigenous communities.
Longman gave Labor one of its most rewarding victories of the 2007 election when Brough was dumped by a 10.3% swing, which was notably more concentrated in low-income Caboolture than the more affluent Bribie Island. Labor’s winning candidate was Jon Sullivan, who had served the area in state parliament from 1989 as member for Glass House and Caboolture, before losing the latter seat to One Nation in 1998. The exchange of urban for semi-rural territory at the 2010 election reduced the Labor margin from 3.6% to 1.9%, though even the pre-redistribution margin would have been insufficient against the 3.8% swing Sullivan suffered amid an election result which cost Labor seven of its 15 Queensland seats. His cause was not aided by a late campaign gaffe committed during a public forum broadcast on ABC Radio, in which he drew jeers from the audience after responding critically to a question posed by the father of a disabled child.
The LNP’s victory was especially noteworthy in returning a candidate who at 20 years of age was the youngest person ever elected to an Australian parliament. Wyatt Roy had won preselection at a local party ballot the previous March, at which time the seat was not considered one the party had much cause to be optimistic about. A University of Queensland student, electorate officer to state Glass House MP Andrew Powell and president of the Sunshine Coast Young Liberal National Party, Roy reportedly impressed party members with his pitch at the preselection meeting, and performed well in subsequent media appearances. His win in the ballot ahead of former Caboolture councillor Peter Flannery and local businessman Steve Attrill was confirmed by the party’s state council, despite criticism from Mal Brough who queried how such a candidate would connect with the the electorate’s “large component of veterans and seniors”.
Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Michael Caisley, an organiser with the Left faction United Voice union (formerly the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union). Meanwhile, Mal Brough will be seeking to return to politics as LNP candidate for the electorate’s northern neighbour, Fisher.
Very well said, daretotread @ 130.
The facts speak for themselves.
Ross Cameron interviewed on ABC about replacing the Sydney Harbour Bridge.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-13/a-new-sydney-harbour-bridge/4818416
I wondered why they were interviewing him about it when the bridge isn’t in the electorate which he’s running in.
It took until halfway through the interview that it is revealed he has a financial interest in replacing the bridge.
We should be happy his vested interest was disclosed, but why not do that up front?
[No that is demanding scientific proof. Totally reasonable.
I can assert the moon is made of cheese. No scientific proof.
Same standard applies]
I would encourage you to fly to the moon and mine the cheese. It is crazy stupid unreasonable to require someone to prove something like ‘there is no risk’. There is risk in life.
Boerwar:
*laughs*
Spider
Posted Saturday, July 13, 2013 at 10:40 am | PERMALINK
Meguire Bob [43]
Posted Saturday, July 13, 2013 at 8:48 am | Permalink
Turnbull is also upstaging Abbott in telling more lies
MB, I find that very hard to believe, I doubt it is possible to tell more lies than rAbbott.
——————————————
Spider you might be right
But Turnbull in recent times is close to it
BW
As a matter of fact I think that the Gibbons Should have been expelled, however given the balance in the HoR it was not practical.
To dump on ANY past ALP leader in such terms is nothing short of disgusting.
Honestly even dumping on KNOWN turncoats such as Lyons and Hughs would not justify such abuse.
WeWantPaul
The US took that approach with BP in the Gulf of Mexico. See where that got them. Irreparable damage to the environment hurting local business.
Thankfully here your view is in the minority when it comes to water
[I would encourage you to fly to the moon and mine the cheese. It is crazy stupid unreasonable to require someone to prove something like ‘there is no risk’. There is risk in life.]
It is like requiring a vaccine for children never ever ever to have any risk of any side effect and the bat-sh1t crazy people who don’t let their children get vaccinated because it can’t be shown 1000% that there is no tiny side effect. The results of this stupidity are enormously bad, but the logic is the same as the CSG logic you posted.
Boerwar – stuck in an anti-Rudd loop that he cannot escape.
WeWantPaul
Wrong. Vaccines have scientific proof of efficacy and safety. Not assertions
[The US took that approach with BP in the Gulf of Mexico. See where that got them. Irreparable damage to the environment hurting local business.
Thankfully here your view is in the minority when it comes to water]
Well did they stop drilling entirely in the gulf of mexico because of that disaster? I think you’ll find they didn’t.
My view that sensible safe extraction of CSG is probably a good thing so long as sensible precautions are taken to minimise known risks is in the minority?
[LIBERAL Malcolm Turnbull has a travel itinerary which makes Kevin Rudd look like a stay-at-home – and no one thinks he’s campaigning for the leadership.
In the past 18 months Mr Turnbull has visited 56 federal seats for specific functions to help Liberal candidates. That’s a simple average of just over three a month but doesn’t take into account multiple visits to some electorates.]
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/malcolm-turnbull-travels-even-more-than-kevin-rudd/story-fncynjr2-1226678800935#ixzz2Ysm2NffJ
Nobody thinks he’s campaigning for the leadership because he isn’t backgrounding journalists or whiteanting against his leader.
A Liberal MP for one of Perth’s most marginal Federal seats spent almost 130 nights in Melbourne and 20 nights in Adelaide over two years.
Swan MP Steve Irons has admitted he was forced to pay back some of his taxpayer-funded allowance to the Commonwealth————————————————————
Follow the Leader – Abbott set the standard and others followed
AA
Actually Howard set the standard just think phone card and Reith
[Wrong. Vaccines have scientific proof of efficacy and safety. Not assertions]
No they have scientific proof they are largely safe and effective, just like fraking does.
[143
confessions
Posted Saturday, July 13, 2013 at 10:37 am | Permalink
briefly, Gary:
Whatever one thinks of Mark LAtham, his views about our media are spot on.
And besides, I’d much prefer Latham to the current batch of former ALP MPs who are the go-to commentators these days such as Richo.]
These people achieved advancement inside the ALP and now they make a mercenary living splashing graffiti on its flanks. I have no time for any of them.
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 2m
Missing from Rudd’s press club presentation: international comparisons for the pre-GFC surplus, & then turnaround.]
briefly:
To be fair to Latham, most of his commentary is about the falling standards of our media than attacking the ALP.
Unlike Richo or that other former MP who writes for the OO.
It’s Groundhog day around here at the moment.
confessions, the bore and others’ day, every day ad nauseum:
1. Get up
2. Trawl the internet for something anti Labor that criticises the current leader
3. Post on PB
4. Whinge and whine for the rest of the day and night about how terrible Rudd is/was/will be, and how badly saint Julia was treated
5. Rinse and repeat
I know that some people like routine, but this is frigggin ridiculous!
Turning boats back has always been, quite simply, a nightmare of an operation to carry out – violent, traumatic, dangerous and difficult. Of the 12 times it was attempted during the Howard government’s Operation Relex, only four attempts were successful.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/say-we-vote-to-turn-back-those-boats-what-next-20130712-2pvkg.html#ixzz2YsnwiTit
[Not true. People have listened to Alan Jones on CSG because the message is right. The message is heard despite it being Alan Jones.]
That’s NOT TRUE! Nor is any single/ all-encompassing message about CSG true!
CSG is not a unity; it’s a complexity encompassing many different issues (inc single issues which themselves are complex): some (& only “some”) related to
* Mining v Farmland/ property rights
CSG positives
* natural gas, used in Qld for over a century; supplied, since the mid1960s, by pipelines to SEQ cities & towns, and more recently to other areas – a much cleaner and safer carbonic fuel than any other; including wood-burning heating, stoves, BBQs & camp fires etc which, on very large & much-replicated UN studies, rank next to coal as a contaminant, & as a cause of lung diseases inc cancer (ie, worse than cigarette smoke)- esp if those fires burn Oz eucalypts, with their extremely fine & dangerous particulates.
* Coal Seam Gas ->oil; itself a complex area related to natural oil and oil which can be extracted from Bowen Basin coal seams – again, another very old (postWW1) industry, but carried on in fits & starts
* CSG which requires “fracking”
* CSG’s importance as
(1) a way of significantly lowering Oz’s carbon footprint – especially as powerhouses are converted to it – until sufficient energy can be produced by non-carbon methods;
(2) when exported, another way of significantly lowering Oz’s carbon footprint
(3) again, when exported, a very significant way of lowering Asian nations’ (esp China’s) – and the whole world’s – Carbon Footprints, esp as many countries which already/ soon will import Oz CSG are the world’s word’s polluters
CSG Negatives: The Known Unknowns
* Possible contamination effects on Oz’s very significant & life-saving (fauna – inc human – and flora) artesian water resources (inc GAB, LEB), their protection, continuity & purity; without which far more of the Interior would become desert
* Fracking’s possible geological effects; which, as well as damaging aquifers, could damage the geological impervious & pervious strata which create natural lakes, dams, aquifers etc
WeWantPaul
If true the fracking will pass the science test.
None of that evidence has been presented. Windsor is not stupid. PMJG was not stupid. They passed the review legislation for a reason.
The reason being a lack of scientific evidence.
adrian,
I suggest you look in the mirror for the PB most repetitive bore.
Thanks for the suggestion GG. I always welcome your kind advice old man. I value the advice of elderly catholics particularly.
Apparently, the Libs are starting a media campaign against Rudd based on facts.
No doubt the Ruddaristas will see any truth based criticisms as a campaign of negativity.
I expect the whine level to be exceptionally high for the next few days.
adrian,
I see your inner bigot rises to the top when you are told the truth.
There is neither honour nor shame amongst democracy thieves.
As predicted by several posters, ‘The Australian’ which for three years was working hand in glove with Rudd to damage a Labor Government, turned against Rudd the nanonsecond that Rudd was back in the saddle. So far, so bad.
You might recall that Bowen was/is an active member of Rudd’s Ratpack.
But there is a tasteful twist of the knife for Rudd in ‘The Weekend Australian.’
There is very lengthy article extolling the virtues of Bowen…
The Emperor had better establish his 75% rule before Bowen can do to him what he did to Latham, Beazely and Gillard.
The rot within.
Got to go and leave your lot to Groundhog Day.
As they say, enjoy your misery!
[If true the fracking will pass the science test.]
Of course it has.
[Apparently, the Libs are starting a media campaign against Rudd based on facts.
No doubt the Ruddaristas will see any truth based criticisms as a campaign of negativity.
I expect the whine level to be exceptionally high for the next few days.]
I think a personal attack on Rudd is a waste of time and money and reinforces all the negative views of Abbott. I hope the libs do nothing else between now and the election.
GG:
As a general rule of thumb, you can always tell a baiting troll by their refusal to comment on issues in favour of hurling abuse at other commenters.
The best thing to do is to ignore these people, knowing that if you do, they invariably get bored and go away.
Boerwar:
I would’ve thought Labor would be very happy with the Liberals engaging in a negative campaign, as it underscores everything that’s been said about Abbott for the past fortnight.
Does Christoper Pyne think that Barry O’Farrel and Kathryn Griener are stupid? Or is he making stuff up again?
Taxpayers paid Tony Abbott $2,372.81 to jump in the surf and take a swim!!
https://twitter.com/cathywilcox1/status/355857737059553281/photo/1
fess,
I get better sledging from my teenage kids than what gets served up here on PB.
It is remarkable however, that posters who regard themselves as beacons of moral rectitude resort to religious taunting and bigotry rather quickly.
[Taxpayers paid Tony Abbott $2,372.81 to jump in the surf and take a swim!!]
would have been worth every cent if he hadn’t come back
fess,
I hear it will be a Yin and Yang campaign. Abbott will be parading his team of bright young things to emphasise his point that he’s captain of a talented team.
Expect Bronny Bishop, Sophie Mirrabella and Peter Dutton to figure prominently.
WWP,
Where’s a Chinese sub when you really need one?
lizzie
no one Is controlling any one
if u want abbott just keep going the way you are
THERE ARE TWO TYPES OF LABOR People
DREAMERS WHO LIVE IN THE PAST.
cannot come to grips with reality
TRUE BELEIVERS WHO PUT THE PARTY AND THE COUNTRY FIRST
NOW LIZZIE IF U THINK THAT IS TRYING TO CONTROL PEOPLE
I SUGGEST ITS U WHO SHOULD TO FOR A WALK OCCASSIONALY
and get a life
===========================================================
ive have always put the labor party first and abbott last
that’s why a fearlessly supported JG
LOOK IF JOE BLOW TOOK OVER TOMORROW,
I WOULD SUPPORT HIM TO LOL
THATS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN u AND ME
Great to see some amazingly ignorant f/wits advocating for CSG, so as to highlight the enormous and irreversable damage inherent in these ‘practises’ …..
Great Artesean Basin, anyone ….. ?
No, thanks. I would rather have
A VAST TOXIC SUBTERRANEAN LAKE ! !
Your flaming oath, you would. It is your water.
We Want Paul can go and drink some of that Fracking Materiel.
Try Googling the Fracking Contents, Haliburton will not disclose, FFS>
GG:
A psychological analysis has concluded online commentary can be categorised thus:
[The testosterone-fueled contempt system (what biologists call intermale aggression) drives individuals to diss and duel online and produces trolls.
The oxytocin-modulated spite system drives individuals to target opponents’ social networks.
The male raiding system drives groups of raiders to team up to attack enemy installations and gives rise to hacker groups.
But the most prevalent and influential form of online hostility is outrage, a uniquely human emotional system in the most evolved part of our social brain that drives us to collectively punish transgressors and gives rise to crusaders. Social media turbo-charges our outrage circuits and generates ever-increasing numbers of online petitions and lynch mobs.]
😀
http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/billion-wicked-thoughts/201307/billion-angry-brains-the-four-types-online-hostility?tr=HdrQuote
OzPolTragic@7
It was actually Proudhon, not Herr Marx and Engels that said that property is theft.
In the same text he also said property is freedom and property is impossible.
c.f.,
http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/360
and ps
I am proud of my stance,
and make no apologies to any one one,
the party and getting elected is paramount,
for this nation and if people like the anti rudders
Mr rudd is leader now, get behind him or shut up
for the sake of the country
what a wired mob
[WWP,
Where’s a Chinese sub when you really need one?]
Excellent point. Or even an indonesian fishing vessel with a cranky people smuggler.
Guardian-Oz’s Stories of the Week
David Marr’s
Ashbygate: the great disappearing scandal about to roar back into life
With the result of a federal court appeal on the way and online activists eager to fund further investigation we have not heard the last of the plot against Peter Slipper
my say@185
What a cracker!
gg
I am really surprised at u I really am
have u resigned from the alp yet
u should consider it
my say,
You may be wired. However, PB posters are mostly a word mob.
My say,
Have you joined, yet?