Longman is centred on Caboolture and Burpengary in Brisbane’s outer north, from which it extends eastwards to Bribie Island and the mainland coast immediately opposite and westwards to the semi-rural townships of Woodford and D’Aguilar. The seat was created at the 1996 election from territory that had mostly been in Fisher, which thereafter assumed a more coastal orientation along the southern half of the Sunshine Coast. Caboolture and Bribie Island have been the constants of the electorate amid frequently changing boundaries, which have variously appended the electorate’s core either with outer northern Brisbane suburbs or semi-rural hinterland. The former was most evident when the boundaries encompassed the coastal suburb of Deception Bay at the time of the 2007 election, which was the only occasion thus far when the seat has been won by Labor. This area was transferred to Petrie in the redistribution before the 2010 election, with Longman regaining the Woodford and D’Aguilar area it had temporarily lost to Fisher.
Longman had a notional Liberal margin of 1.6% on its creation at the 1996 election, to which the party’s candidate Mal Brough added a further 10.0% in the context of a disastrous result for Labor throughout Queensland. Brough was nonetheless lucky to survive the 1998 election after a 1.6% redistribution shift and a 9.1% swing back to Labor left him with only 0.5% to spare. After picking up successive swings of 1.8% in 2001 and 5.2% in 2004, Brough’s margin was pegged back by redistribution to 6.6% going into the 2007 election. By this time Brough had emerged as a senior figure in the Howard government, serving progressively as Employment Services Minister from 2001 to 2004, Assistant Treasurer and Revenue Minister from 2004 to 2006, and Families and Community Services and Indigenous Affairs from 2006 until the Howard government’s defeat a year later. His profile was considerably raised by the latter role, in which he oversaw the government’s sweeping intervention into Northern Territory indigenous communities.
Longman gave Labor one of its most rewarding victories of the 2007 election when Brough was dumped by a 10.3% swing, which was notably more concentrated in low-income Caboolture than the more affluent Bribie Island. Labor’s winning candidate was Jon Sullivan, who had served the area in state parliament from 1989 as member for Glass House and Caboolture, before losing the latter seat to One Nation in 1998. The exchange of urban for semi-rural territory at the 2010 election reduced the Labor margin from 3.6% to 1.9%, though even the pre-redistribution margin would have been insufficient against the 3.8% swing Sullivan suffered amid an election result which cost Labor seven of its 15 Queensland seats. His cause was not aided by a late campaign gaffe committed during a public forum broadcast on ABC Radio, in which he drew jeers from the audience after responding critically to a question posed by the father of a disabled child.
The LNP’s victory was especially noteworthy in returning a candidate who at 20 years of age was the youngest person ever elected to an Australian parliament. Wyatt Roy had won preselection at a local party ballot the previous March, at which time the seat was not considered one the party had much cause to be optimistic about. A University of Queensland student, electorate officer to state Glass House MP Andrew Powell and president of the Sunshine Coast Young Liberal National Party, Roy reportedly impressed party members with his pitch at the preselection meeting, and performed well in subsequent media appearances. His win in the ballot ahead of former Caboolture councillor Peter Flannery and local businessman Steve Attrill was confirmed by the party’s state council, despite criticism from Mal Brough who queried how such a candidate would connect with the the electorate’s “large component of veterans and seniors”.
Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Michael Caisley, an organiser with the Left faction United Voice union (formerly the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union). Meanwhile, Mal Brough will be seeking to return to politics as LNP candidate for the electorate’s northern neighbour, Fisher.
For those who missed this last one night, Lenore Taylor’s Tony Abbott takes a fall in the battle of the ‘stunt’ men: The opposition leader’s claim that Kevin Rudd is a ‘fake’ who lacks substance puts him in a pot-and-kettle situation
[A weird thing has happened since Kevin Rudd’s return. He and Tony Abbott are using the same talking points. But they’re working better for Kevin.
Rudd derides Abbott as “Captain Negative”. Abbott complains Rudd spends his time “attacking the Coalition”.
Rudd says Abbott is all slogans and soundbites and he, Rudd, is the guy with the seven-point plan. Abbott says Rudd’s a “fake” with “no substance” and he is the man with the “real solutions”. He even has them written down in a booklet…
But Abbott’s problem is that if it comes down to a competition about who voters think is negative and more devoid of policy substance, they’ll probably pick him.]
Finance Dept letter to Slipper says no concerns until AFTER AFP investigation began.Who reported? http://nofibs.com.au/2013/07/04/a-familiar-afp-smell-over-slipper-and-ashby/ …
This Ashby/Slipper thing has a real stink to it. Someone is being protected.
Sadly the only way the real truth, not someone’s version, will be exposed is by a costly Royal Commission. Too many are hiding the truth to protect someone in the Liberal Party.
[It doesn’t matter how true the message is, if you have a clown with no credibility delivering it, the only people who are going to listen are people who already agree.]
Unfortunately there will always be people who shoot the messenger rather than the message.
I’ll issue the same challenge to you: what parts of Latham’s article are incorrect, such that they should be dismissed out of hand?
The problem is Lizzie some of us still want to fight the leadership war. It’s over. I’m a supporter of what ever it takes to keep Abbott out of The Lodge. I supported JG as leader but came to the realisation that JG was not going to win, in fact lose badly. That would have done both JG and the party real harm. Now at least there is a fighting chance.
Margo has them scared, it would seem:
[A Liberal MP for one of Perth’s most marginal Federal seats spent almost 130 nights in Melbourne and 20 nights in Adelaide over two years.
Swan MP Steve Irons has admitted he was forced to pay back some of his taxpayer-funded allowance to the Commonwealth after a “selfaudit”, though he refused to say how much he returned.
Mr Irons’ travel records show he made at least 40 trips to Melbourne between January 2011 and December last year. He spent one or more nights in the city each visit.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/17979768/wa-lib-pays-back-funds/
Psephos
Thanks and interested in your comments on Kitching. If she has been damaged by association with her partners past business then she is unlucky. Nevertheless, since none of the Melbourne Uni student union money reported missing was ever recovered, I would say that Landeryou was more than just unpopular in the Labor party. At best Kitching was unwise to be guarantor and become bankrupted.
Frankly, I still find the norms of financial administration in many unions (student and otherwise) breathtakingly low. In most fields failing to keep adequate records for millions in expense is in itself an offence, even if all the money was spent for proper purposes. The potential for abuse is obvious.
[The problem is Lizzie some of us still want to fight the leadership war.]
The real problem, Gary, is that any criticism (however mild) of the current leader is misinterpreted by some as “fighting the leadership war.”
Perhaps the mature thing to do is to stop being so overly sensitive and either engage constructively or scroll past.
[Not true. People have listened to Alan Jones on CSG because the message is right. The message is heard despite it being Alan Jones.]
Nah again Alan has just engaged those who already believed. I’m not sure where I am on CSG, but Alan certainly moves my opinion, in the opposite direction.
“@HillaryClinton: Malala today at the UN: “Nothing changed in my life except this-weakness, fear and hopelessness died.” Extraordinary young woman. #MalalaDay”
One final comment before I go on the topic of fracking and environmental approvals. Labor wants to be seen as more “pro business” and many miners are seeking approval for shale gas operations (that usually involve fracking). Despite its widespread use, this technology is still far from proven safe. Risks to groundwater remain. This is also earthquake risk, that is relevant in Australia where there are known faultlines (eg Adelaide, Newcastle).
[Pumping water underground at geothermal power plants can lead to dangerous earthquakes even in regions not prone to tremors, according to scientists. They say that quake risk should be factored into decisions about where to site geothermal plants and other drilling rigs where water is pumped underground – for example in shale gas fracking.
Prof Emily Brodsky, who led a study of earthquakes at a geothermal power plant in California, said: “For scientists to make themselves useful in this field we need to be able to tell operators how many gallons of water they can pump into the ground in a particular location and how many earthquakes that will produce.”
It is already known that pumping large quantities of water underground can induce minor earthquakes near to geothermal power generation and fracking sites. However, the new evidence reveals the potential for much larger earthquakes, of magnitude 4 or 5, related to the weakening of pre-existing undergrounds faults through increased fluid pressure.]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2013/jul/11/fracking-water-injection-major-earthquakes
Have a good day all.
WeWantPaul
Bob Brown a man who is no friend of Jones shared a stage because the message is right.
Maybe Fess it stems back to the vitriol meted out to people supporting the change to Rudd for days on end. Maybe it’s just strange that those who once railed against Latham and his antics now see merit in what he says against Rudd. Latham is’t all wrong but I personally think he’s a snake in the grass and find it hard to take him seriously.
@ABCNews24: Telstra is refusing to say if it’s ever had data monitoring deals with Aust. intelligence agencies. More on #ABCNews24 after 10.15am AEST
Pyne, Brough, Abbott have stated they had no specific knowledge of the Ashby claims…..
what non-specific knowledge did they have? Why can’t they just TELL THE TRUTH??
BK
WRT to next election, I hope that Windsor does support the Indie for Indi, and gives Sophie the royal boot. Her appearance on the most recent (as if we needed reminding of the Simon incident) confirmed how nasty she is.
I recall Sep 2011. I was in hospital awaiting surgery, and the shyte really hit the fan over her ‘arrangement’ with Colin Howard. There were a number of articles related to this, and a few of us (you were prominent) had a bit to say about this.
Even if Labor lost (and I don’t think they will), it will be great to see the back end of her, and to have a smiling Windsor stand beside the member-elect will bring a smile to my face.
Gary
I am not trying to fight any leadership war. It’s over. The challenger has won. But I don’t agree that that means we should forget everything that has happened in the past years, like a lot of goldfish. In their arguments, people often bring up Keating or Hawke (or even Howard 😛 ).
The problem has been some in the media’s campaign to destabilise the Gillard government, and I am still angry about that.
BTW Fess you’re getting a bit condescending there. No need for that.
Is newsltd trying to push Turnbull out
davidwh and mod lib will be happy
http://www.news.com.au/national-news/malcolm-turnbull-travels-even-more-than-kevin-rudd/story-fncynjr2-1226678800935#ixzz2YsR2oO7C
LIBERAL Malcolm Turnbull has a travel itinerary which makes Kevin Rudd look like a stay-at-home – and no one thinks he’s campaigning for the leadership.
In the past 18 months Mr Turnbull has visited 56 federal seats for specific functions to help Liberal candidates. That’s a simple average of just over three a month but doesn’t take into account multiple visits to some electorates.
And the visit list doesn’t include the trips made as a shadow minister and with front bench colleagues on Opposition business.
[WeWantPaul
Bob Brown a man who is no friend of Jones shared a stage because the message is right.]
Bob Brown shared a stage because they agreed. And frankly Bob Brown would have more credibility than Alan Jones, although sharing a stage with Jones couldn’t possibly help ones credibility.
The antiCSG groupings are largely greenies who just hate energy companies no matter how good a job they do, and whether they damage the environment or improve it, and those who have been conned by a campaign that is 99% feeds on ignorance and fear.
WeWantPaul
Tony Windsor disagrees with your viewpoint on CSG.
Not exactly a dyed in the wool Greenie.
Newsltd/abbott coalition doesnt look too stable
Gary:
I don’t really care what views people have of Julia Gillard, or the ALP, nor do I really care that they offer their views here.
What I object to is the mindless, juvenile sniping that invariably follows any criticism of the party or its leader.
And I wasn’t intending to be condescending, simply offering constructive advice.
[WeWantPaul
Tony Windsor disagrees with your viewpoint on CSG.
Not exactly a dyed in the wool Greenie.]
Well perhaps then he falls into the ignorant and fearful on this one.
No sorry guytaur there is a third category that are effectively antiCSG, not because they are anti the technology nor natural gas as a power source but because of land access problems, Tony could easily fit into that category.
I agree with you re the media Lizzie but now is the time to look forward. The best time to look back is when the anger subsides. I think JG will come out of this looking pretty good down the track. She would’ve have if she’d lost by a record margin, which was on the cards.
Has Rudd resigned yet?
It now looks as though Joanne Ryan, who is some sort of Leftist, will get Lalor by default, because Kitching has withdrawn and Clutterham is obviously not up to it. This is despite an agreement that Lalor would go to the Right when Gillard departed. The Victorian Right is now so badly split among Shorten, Conroy, Feeney, the AWU, the SDA and various others that they couldn’t agree on a credible candidate for a safe seat without all double-crossing each other.
wewantpaul
Tony Windsor said let the CSG people prove they will not do damage to the water table. Not just assert it.
Not unreasonable considering how many people depend on water for survival.
I agree with him
Gary
I agree with most of what you say. I’m glad she waited until most of “her” legislation through before she pulled the plug. I am, however, concerned that some of it is going to be watered down. We shall see.
Confessions and coterie
Perhaps if you moderated yopu language and used rational argument to attack Rudd and his actions we might treat your views with a little more respect.
People who use terms like Ratf***er, termite, psychopath, sociopath, narcissistic are behaving like LNP trolls and must be treated as such.
I think you will struggle to find ANY ALP leaning poster who abused Gillard to anywhere near the same extent as you and your cronies think is acceptable.
There is a BIG difference between arguing that someone has made a policy error or a PR stuff up and suggesting that they are PERSONALLY insane or corrupt.
To be brutally honest the closest ANYONE got to the level of abuse even vaguely equivalent to sociopath or psychopath or Lathams bizarre “evil” is Joe Richards with his “box.”
Take a long hard look at your language. It is LNP troll stuff.
If you cannot see the difference then I am sorry for you.
[Has Rudd resigned yet?]
Has Abbott, Pyne, Bishop and Brought resigned yet?
Mark Latham is simply bitter-n-twisted. Having failed abysmally as Labor leader, these days he tries to make a few dollars assailing his former enemies in the ALP and the media. He should find something useful to do. His emetics simply remind me of all the reasons politics is better off without him.
Fess I agree with you. I’m not one of those people. I just question the wisdom of taking too much notice of Latham. He’s a weather vane, like Tony. Anyway must be off,
Psephos
I loathe agreement of anykind
Frankly the pre-selection debacles in Victoria suggest that you are as ineffectual and and NSW.
Why on earth are their NOT some credible candidates around. Is the RIGHT and LEFT of the ALP so defunct that they could not field say three respectable candidates for Lalor. Why on earth did they even consider a ring in like clutterham. Why even consider Kitching given her unfortunate past.
Are you all thick as planks down there.
Whatever Laurie Oakes and others might say about the upcoming media blitz, it seems to me that the Libs have been flushed out earlier than they would have wished – giving Rudd plenty of time to respond before the campaign actually starts. No doubt the 53-31 PPM figures have played a big part in that.
On the subject of media standards
@SquigglyRick: San Fran TV news station reports Asiana crash pilot names were “Sum Ting Wong and Ho Lee Fuk”. Who fell for that? http://t.co/6QjxDAigiF
Labor must continue on being on the front foot
It has the news ltd/abbott coalition wheeling backwards
[Confessions and coterie]
Methinks you should take your own advice about language.
Psephos
[The Victorian Right is now so badly split among Shorten, Conroy, Feeney, the AWU, the SDA and various others that they couldn’t agree on a credible candidate for a safe seat without all double-crossing each other.]
Yes, great isn’t it? That they even tried, and with a tainted dud candidate tells us they need to be kept in that state of disarray permanently.
[wewantpaul
Tony Windsor said let the CSG people prove they will not do damage to the water table. Not just assert it.
Not unreasonable considering how many people depend on water for survival.
I agree with him]
yeah but that is just fear of the unknown, and a risk assessment based on it. We would still be living in caves without fire eating vegetables if that kind of logic prevailed.
Newsltd/Abbott coalition can not change its personal propaganda attacks
It can not come out and tell the Australian public it has more to offer then these propaganda attack
I think Latham on Q&A with his bizzare “evil” just seems unbalanced. He is very bitter and twisted.
It is quite sad and I would like to see the man given some sort of job in which he can use his considerable skills. (Assuming he is stable enough). He was a Labor leader and as such deserves some form of support, hard though that may be to stomach
briefly, Gary:
Whatever one thinks of Mark LAtham, his views about our media are spot on.
And besides, I’d much prefer Latham to the current batch of former ALP MPs who are the go-to commentators these days such as Richo.
Talk about laugh.
I was reading the dustjacked blurb of ‘The Fall of the West’ by Adrian Goldsworthy…
‘His epic history begins with the death of Marcus Aurelius in 180, when Rome was still the world’s only superpower, and charts a long, slow decline through the chaos of the third century, the schism of the fourth, and the final collapse in the fifth. He depicts a world repeatedly torn apart by civil wsr, where political power was most often won by slaughtering rivals, and emperors were more afraid of ambitious subordinates that foreign enemies. It was this internal conflict, as he shows in his compelling final chapters, that eventually led to the fall of the West; none of Rome’s enemies were strong enough to defeat it until the empire had rotted from within.’
If only they had had the 75% rule.
WeWantPaul
No that is demanding scientific proof. Totally reasonable.
I can assert the moon is made of cheese. No scientific proof.
Same standard applies
WeWantPaul
Posted Saturday, July 13, 2013 at 10:36 am | Permalink
wewantpaul
Tony Windsor said let the CSG people prove they will not do damage to the water table. Not just assert it.
Not unreasonable considering how many people depend on water for survival.
——————————————————-
The number of people the “depend on water for survival” would be all of us. Everyone must have water.
Bob Hogg had a short article in yesterday’s AFR which I happened to read in hard copy. He made a well-reasoned, vitriol-free, calmly-composed case for internal reform of Labor, especially focusing on the need to subject the factions to some rules. He also argued that the unions will have to relax their control of the party if it is going to have a future as a broadly representative and democratic political organ.
Hogg is worth reading. I will try to get hold of the article and copy it here.
Meguire Bob [43]
Posted Saturday, July 13, 2013 at 8:48 am | Permalink
Turnbull is also upstaging Abbott in telling more lies
MB, I find that very hard to believe, I doubt it is possible to tell more lies than rAbbott.
Based on the standard set by Abbott in his attacks on Slipper. Abbott should resign. He should repay all the travel/accommodation allowances he claimed while he undertook charity bike rides and swims.
daretotread
‘People who use terms like Ratf***er, termite, psychopath, sociopath, narcissistic are behaving like LNP trolls and must be treated as such.’
Correct.
(1) It was Rudd who introduced the American term ‘r*tfucker into Australia’s public discourse. You are correct. For three years Rudd and his Ratpack worked like Liberal trolls with the MSM to undermine a Labor Government. Rudd was a Liberal Troll and he should have been treated as such. Instead the Labor Party gave him the job of Prime Minister of Australia.
(2) It was one of the Labor Party’s backbenchers who called Rudd a ‘psycopath’. Clearly he was acting as a Liberal troll. He should have been expelled from the Labor Party straight away.