UPDATE (ReachTEL): ReachTEL, which had the Coalition ahead 58-42 in its last federal poll on May 3, has published an automated phone poll of 3018 respondents which has it down to 52-48, from primary votes of 38.3% for Labor, 44.1% for the Coalition and 8.7% for the Greens. As noted by Possum, extrapolation of state breakdowns produces a slight Labor majority on seats, thanks to the yield to be gained from a swing to Labor in Queensland. Kevin Rudd leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 51.6-48.4, with Abbott leading Julia Gillard 59.4-40.6. Views on the leadership change are finely split, with 44.1% agreeing and 42.4% disagreeing. A clear majority (56.9% to 30.2%) still believe Labor cannot win the election.
Roy Morgan offers state breakdowns on the no doubt over-analysed SMS poll it conducted immediately after Wednesday evening’s leadership vote, showing Labor’s two-party vote at 47.5% in New South Wales, 49.5% in Victoria, 51.5% in Queensland, 41% in Western Australia, 50% in South Australia and 63% in Tasmania (off progressively less convincing samples). It also provides rare state breakdowns from the multi-mode poll published on Monday, which you can observe by following the link.
In addition to the turmoil evident at the macro level, the week’s upheaval has transformed a number of contests at the electorate level:
Lalor (Labor 22.2%): Julia Gillard’s exit from politics creates yet another Labor vacancy in a plum Melbourne seat, in this case the electorate covering Werribee and Melton in western Melbourne. The Australian reports that factional and affirmative action considerations mean the seat is very likely to go to a woman from the Right. According to a Fairfax report, a “highly likely” nominee is Kimberley Kitching, a former Melbourne City councillor currently tasked with restoring order to the Health Services Union No. 1 branch as its acting general manager. Kitching is also “wife of notorious blogger Andrew Landeryou and a close ally of Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten”, and an unsuccessful candidate for the preselection to replace Nicola Roxon in Gellibrand in April. Fairfax reports that while Shorten “may” back Kitching, Conroy “could back another candidate”, as he did in Gellibrand. That could be Peter Khalil, “a former policy adviser during Kevin Rudd’s first period as Prime Minister and now director of corporate affairs at SBS”. Others mentioned are Hobsons Bay deputy mayor Luba Grigorovitch, a possible starter from the Left, and Katie Hall, the unsuccessful Roxon-backed candidate in Gellibrand.
Perth (Labor 5.8%): Yesterday’s retirement announcement by Stephen Smith created a vacancy in the least unsafe of Labor’s three WA seats. Early talk of possible nominees has included Tim Hammond, a Slater & Gordon lawyer who ran unsuccessfully for Swan in 2010, and Matt Keogh, vice-president of the Law Society of WA. Perhaps more speculatively, there are suggestions the opening might be of interest to state Shadow Treasurer Ben Wyatt, whose uncle Ken Wyatt is the Liberal member for the neighbouring seat of Hasluck, and Alannah MacTiernan, the former senior state government minister and unsuccessful federal candidate for Canning in 2010. MacTiernan called on Julia Gillard to resign on the night of Labor’s heavy defeat at the state election in March.
Rankin (Labor 5.4%): Craig Emerson’s exit creates a rare opening for aspiring Labor hopefuls in Queensland, in this case for a southern Brisbane seat which the party will be a lot more optimistic about now the local favourite is back in The Lodge. Tony Moore of Fairfax reports the contenders are likely to include Jim Chalmers, executive director of the Chifley Research Centre and a former adviser to Wayne Swan, and Barbara Stone, who held the state seat of Springwood from 2001 until her defeat at the March 2012 state election. The Australian also mentions Linus Power, a former adviser to Kevin Rudd who ran unsuccessfully in what had appeared to be the safe seat of Logan at the state election.
Kingsford Smith (Labor 5.2%): Peter Garrett is bringing down the curtain on a three-term parliamentary career as member for the electorate centred around Maroubra in southern coastal Sydney. Ean Higgins of The Australian reports Senator Matt Thistlethwaite might see the vacancy as an opportunity to switch houses. Bob Carr and Kristina Keneally, whose old state electorates wholly or largely corresponded with the seat, quickly scotched any suggestions that they might be interested. Carr’s successor as member for Maroubra, Michael Daley, is being “touted” for a possible move to the federal seat, while Keneally’s husband, Botany mayor Ben Keneally, has ruled himself out.
New England (Independent 16.8%) and Lyne (Independent 12.4%): The morning of the leadership change began with the unrelated dramas of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott announcing they would not seek re-election after a term spent contentiously propping up a minority government unpopular with their own constituents. That presumably clears the way for the respective Nationals candidates, Barnaby Joyce and David Gillespie, to straightforward victories at the coming election.
Haven’t posted for a while, but some thoughts on “stop the boats”.
Abbott and Co. have got away unchallenged about what this means in reality. I think must of the voters who are so concerned about border security think that with Abbott in charge, our brave navy men and women will be out there in the Timor Sea, armed to the teeth, towing every asylum seeker boat that dares to approach Australia back to Indonesian waters.
What was the reality in the Howard years? 6 tow backs in 11 years wasn’t it?
It’s naive in the extreme, and ultimately dangerous, to assume we can dictate policy terms to Indonesians which may be perceived by them as infringing their national sovereignty. We Australians wear our nationalism lightly. Mostly by supporting our sporting teams. For Indonesians, nationalism is a far more weighty matter, which affects government policy making across a broad spectrum. It’s a different world from Australia.
An actual confrontation between Australian and Indonesian naval vessels related to some towback operation would lead to riots on the streets of Jakarta and do enormous damage to Australian business interests in Indonesia, whilst destroying a diplomatic relationship that has taken years to rebuild in the wake of East Timor’s independence. Abbott and Bishop seem oblivious to that reality, notwithstanding the clear messaging coming our way from Jakarta. Yet it is a very real scenario if “stop the boats” leads to towbacks.
The only way to stop the boats is through Indonesian cooperation. That’s exactly what the current government has sought to achieve over the past 6 years, and what it will continue to seek when Rudd visits Jakarta next week. The stupid thing about what Abbott/Morrison/Bishop are up to is that it puts at risk the only policy that will actually Have some impact. They know they can’t actually stop the boats – certainly not at sea. Yet they’re prepared to wreck a very delicate relationship with our most important neighbour to score some domestic political points. My contempt for them knows no limit.
A uniform swing of that size would win Labor another 16 seats, for what that fact is worth.
P
Thanks for you opinion. I just don’t share it.
I guess the party is now owned by careerists who need the resources of the party to continue. In previous generations the last 3 years would have led to a split.
Of course if Rudd doesn’t deliver I suspect the party will spend the first 3 years in opposition in a state of cibil war.
Outside left
Still an icon.
Psephos I believe that you promised to head off to Europe if Rudd was elected PM.
Booked your ticket yet?
Absolutely spot on Outsider. Brilliant post. Brilliant analysis.
[The really applicable adage is “today’s enemy is tomorrow’s friend,” and none of them forget that.]
So WTF has the whingeing and moaning and handwringing been about for the last 3 years?! Seems some need to take a deep breath.
Also suggests that the leadership is now something which can be chopped and changed at will. Perhaps therefore, we should be cheering on an election win by the new leader in the expectation that once he has secured a win and seen off the odious Abbott, can be summarily dispensed with after the election.
???
[Booked your ticket yet?]
Yes, booked for September. I hope to be in Berlin for German election night, 22 September. Sadly Frau Doktor Merkel looks headed for a big win.
[Of course if Rudd doesn’t deliver I suspect the party will spend the first 3 years in opposition in a state of cibil war.]
The only hope would be that he retired.
It is indeed a very despairing set of circumstances. How has the party allowed itself to be at the mercy of such a person. Very depressing.
I am migrating to the US. Their prime minister is an atheist and she does what she says
(Apologies to Kirsten Neal who will eventually live it down)
I doubt that the Indonesian Government could stop the boats, even if it wanted to, which it does not. It could slow the boats down. It could increase the costs per capita of those doing the run. But stop the boats completely? Doubt it. I doubt that there is the degree of command and control required.
Psephos
Make sure you get the fully flexible airfare. You may be required here till October.
I reckon Rudd wants time as PM, a couple of o/s trips, St Petersburg. G20 in September, another fortnight in Parliament to skewer Abbott and give the nervous LNP nellies the chance to return to Turnbull…
[Also suggests that the leadership is now something which can be chopped and changed at will. ]
Confessions, I do think the idea of political leadership as it has traditionally been known in Westminster countries has radically changed in the era of constant polling, 24 hour media and social media. The days when Evatt or Calwell could lose three elections in a row and retire when they felt like it are long gone. Now leaders last only as long as they stay ahead of the game, and a year’s bad polling will kill any leader. So the notion of “The Leader” in the Whitlam style, to whom we are all deeply emotionally committed, is gradually being replaced by the notion of “today’s leader”, perhaps a different leader at each election. The German SPD, for example, has no “leader” as such. It has a chairman, but he is not “leader of the opposition.” At each election, the party chooses a candidate for Chancellor, very rarely the same person who lost the previous election.
[I am migrating to the US. Their prime minister is an atheist and she does what she says.]
The US has a prime minister?
Sorry it was Kirsten Neel – i am sure you know the story
[Of course if Rudd doesn’t deliver I suspect the party will spend the first 3 years in opposition in a state of cibil war.
The only hope would be that he retired.
It is indeed a very despairing set of circumstances. How has the party allowed itself to be at the mercy of such a person. Very depressing.]
He is expected to lose only a fool would expect him to win, it is the size of the loss and how well he does against Abbott PM that will determine if he gets to contest a third election as Labor Leader. If Abbott runs to a DD like he promises those planning on taking over from him may not have quite the time they need.
Kristen Neel
@WWP/1117
Abbott has been a cowered from not calling a No Confidence Motion to threatening a DD.
Never heard of her. If the US had a prime minister it would be Congressman Boner, who I don’t think is an atheist.
Psephos
On Obama’s reelection in 2012 there was a famous tweet from said Ms Neel: “I’m migrating to Australia because their president is a Christian who does what he says.”
centaur009@643
Anna has previously supported Kev so I expect she would have this time. She has also had him attend fund raising functions for her.
Have you helped her before? I have, but am no longer in her electorate.
WWP – the guy is only there because of the polls and an alleged ability to campaign. No one has said anything positive about his ability to lead caucus or administer.
If he doesn’t win he will not survive the first caucus meeting.
I am enlightened.
[Abbott has been a cowered from not calling a No Confidence Motion to threatening a DD.]
I am not sure I expect him to do it, unless he has really strong support. Labor will be entitled to call him a liar if he doesn’t repeal the carbon price (it isn’t a tax and only fools and liars call it a tax)
My sense on the ground in Jakarta is that Indonesia is increasingly embarrassed by the refugee issues. Attitudes are changing. Arrests of people smuggling are increasing. When I first moved to Jakarta 6 years ago it was a non-issue. That’s no longer the case. Yes, command and control concerns are real. But the messaging from the top is changing, and over time that will percolate downwards. There’s no perfect solution. But Indonesian cooperation is critical to achieving a reduction in the number of boats leaving Indonesian ports. And it’s certainly true that offending Indonesian nationalist sentiments is a dangerous game for Australia to play. As a country we have a lot at risk.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/08/kristen-neel-anti-obama-australia-tweet-backlash_n_2093160.html
Very revealing about Australia’s place in the world.
[If he doesn’t win he will not survive the first caucus meeting.]
If he loses there is someone silly enough to take over? If he is willing they will let him take the first shift, an incredibly unsuccessful shift for opposition leaders to take. They will be planning to replace him by them. As I said noone can seriously expect him to win given the disaster he has inherited (polling and public perception wise).
[Beats moving to New Zealand, I suppose.]
If Rudd wins I’m moving to New Zealand… least they got a proper Prime Minister
[ I do think the idea of political leadership as it has traditionally been known in Westminster countries has radically changed in the era of constant polling, 24 hour media and social media.]
There is absolutely no doubt about this, esp about the increased polling, exacerbated even more so by the hung parliament we currently have. Such a shame.
If leadership by polls is the new black, then we can expect to see more frequent leadership changes, perhaps even in parties in govt. Which is why I see opportunities with the current leadership. Use him to win an election, and then dispose of him once his star fades (as it will).
Whatever It Takes.
@Sean/1129
Which is a National Prime Minister ?
[Anna has previously supported Kev so I expect she would have this time. ]
The Vic Right split as follows:
Rudd: Shorten, Crean, Marles, Byrne, Feeney, Burke.
Gillard: Conroy, Collins, Symon, Roxon, Dreyfus, Mitchell, Burke, Thompson, Danby.
So much for “faction bosses.”
[If Rudd wins I’m moving to New Zealand… least they got a proper Prime Minister]
Surely if you want a ‘proper PM’ you’ll have to go whatever outcome, Abbott makes Bush II look smart and policy driven.
Reposting link to my pseph roundup of Rudd-replaces-Gillard stuff from today:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/rudd-replaces-gillard.html
I’m considering the ReachTEL house effect question at the moment – if the 48-52 is at the negative end for Labor when we have a full round of polling, I’ll be taking a three-strikes-and-you-have-a-house-effect approach and adjusting accordingly.
Pleased to see Rudd launch a scare campaign about possible conflict with Indonesia today. Surprised Labor hasn’t tried it before. It’s exactly what an Opposition that sloganeers about stopping the boats but has little idea how to actually do it deserves, it’s got an obvious grain of underlying plausibility, and after all of Abbott’s scares that flopped I don’t think they’ve really got anything to complain about.
My views on this issue aren’t particularly of the bleeding-heart variety and I do hope that ultimately we can find a practical way of stopping people seeking asylum in Australia by boat or at least making it much less common. But it’s not good enough to make political capital out of saying you have solutions on the issue when you don’t, and it deserves what it gets.
TBilbo,
hey seem to be ‘cutting through’ because they are being reported positively, and are not being delivered by the female voice.
oops
Gillard: Conroy, Collins, Symon, Roxon, Dreyfus, Mitchell, Thompson, Danby.
has Murdoch softened on labor since rudd’s installation ?
Do we have the Latham lemming list without me digging through Mumbles old site?
By the way, the ruddistas carried on for three years (much like their overlord), so trying to silence any dissent over St Kevvie PSORC, before three days are out is the heights of hypocrisy worthy of the great man himself.
[What was the reality in the Howard years? 6 tow backs in 11 years wasn’t it?]
By my calculations in the years that Tow Backs was a policy between 2002 and 2007 thats 30% of boats towed back.
The main reason Anna Burke went with Rudd is that her electorate is filling up with Chinese, and they flipped badly against Labor when Rudd was deposed. She is obviously hoping they will flip back with Rudd restored.
[has Murdoch softened on labor since rudd’s installation ?]
Of course not. Did anyone seriously think they would? Nor has the AFR. Possibly the other Fairfax papers will.
Interesting the mere fact that Rudd has not set an election date and gives the impression he is in no hurry to do so, nor will he allow Abbott to faze him about the matter, is one of the clearest indications that some of the political initiative is back in the hands of the government.
Who would have thunk it? I, for one, thought the advance notice of the election was a good move – for a host of good reasons, but just maybe it does give up some control of the agenda to the press and the opposition.
Undoubtedly we will hear cries from the Murdoch press and the conservatives about the “responsibility” to set a date, but there is no pressing need right now.
Rudd has plenty of good reasons not not make a date public yet – practical ones for instance, such as getting his office set up and so on and political advantage in keeping the opposition guessing. Even the Jewish council are applauding the likely demise of the September 14 date.
Already the Libs have had to bin a ton of paper with reference to “A vote for Smith is a vote for Gillard” here in Perth.
The Libs think they have the target of the Rudd of old, but Rudd has had a lot of thinking time, and while his role in the demise of Julia may never be forgiven by some, he has, in just two days, changed the complexion of politics – at least in the short to medium term.
What looked to be like a stroll to the Lodge for the conservatives may prove to be a lot harder than they thought and they may not even get there.
[By my calculations in the years that Tow Backs was a policy between 2002 and 2007 thats 30% of boats towed back.]
The difference now is that the smugglers have grown smarter and more ruthless. Any boat which is taken in tow now will simply be scuttled, forcing the RAN to rescue the passengers. “Tow back” is simply impossible, and as a policy is a complete fraud.
[Of course not. Did anyone seriously think they would? Nor has the AFR. Possibly the other Fairfax papers will.]
there were a few foaming at the mouth with theories Rudd was Murdoch’s boy and so I guess if you extrapolated their demented ravings you’d expect Limited News to embrace him, but they hated him before as PM and as opp leader, clearly they were going to go as hard as they could again.
WWP, there is no contradiction in LNP > Rudd > Gillard from Murdoch.
[“Tow back” is simply impossible, and as a policy is a complete fraud.]
I hate it when I agree with you.
@Kevin/1134
Your not really keen on these polls are you?
[there were a few foaming at the mouth with theories Rudd was Murdoch’s boy and so I guess if you extrapolated their demented ravings you’d expect Limited News to embrace him, but they hated him before as PM and as opp leader, clearly they were going to go as hard as they could again.]
Rudd has vacillated between pandering to Murdoch and railing against him, but neither has changed Murdoch’s determination to get Labor out. Rudd’s attempt to give the ABC’s Asian TV service to Murdoch was an attempt to appease him, but it didn’t get him far.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/conroy-trumps-rudd-on-network-20110626-1glst.html
Oh, do we have a ministry sworn in yet?
And what is this ‘ALP is still going to lose” stuff”?
I thought the ALP sold its soul to win the election? At least tell me the bargain was a good one, or did the party just get rodent cuddled?