UPDATE (Saturday evening): GhostWhoVotes reports the Sunday News Limited tabloids have a Galaxy poll showing the Coalition leading 55-45, compared with 54-46 in Galaxy’s previous poll. Primary votes are 32% for Labor (down two), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 11% for the Greens (up one). Under a Kevin Rudd leadership scenario, the primary votes are 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with two-party preferred at 50-50. Nonetheless, only 34% said Gillard should make way for Rudd with 52% opposed (32-60 among Labor and 33-51 among Coalition supporters). Full results here.
Some bonus late-week polling to keep you going over the weekend:
• ReachTEL polling conducted for the Hobart Mercury points to a Labor wipeout in Tasmania and a comfortable win for Andrew Wilkie in Denison. After exclusion of the 6.8% undecided, the statewide primary votes are 48.8% for the Liberals, 28.2% for Labor and 11.3% for the Greens, suggesting a Liberal two-party lead of around 56-44 and a swing of 16% compared with the last election. The poll was conducted on Thursday night from samples of around 550 respondents per electorate for a statewide total of 2620, which probably makes it the most comprehensive Tasmanian poll ever conducted. Results by electorate (I have allocated the undecided components listed in the published primary votes in each case):
Denison: Andrew Wilkie 38.8%; Liberal 27.9%; Labor 21.3%; Greens 9.6%. The respective results at the 2010 election were 21.3%, 22.6%, 35.8% and 19.0%. Wilkie defeated Labor by 1.2% after preferences, but the published results suggest Labor would finish third behind the Liberals with their preferences securing a very easy win for Wilkie.
Franklin: Labor 38.4%; Liberal 47.1%; Greens 10.7%. The Liberals lead 51.0-49.0 after preferences, a swing of 11.8%.
Bass: Labor 25.5%; Liberal 56.9%; Greens 14.1%. The Liberals lead 61-39 after preferences, a swing of 17.7%.
Braddon: Labor 28.5%; Liberal 57.6%; Greens 7.6%. The Liberals lead 62.2-37.8 after preferences, a swing of 19.7%.
Lyons: Labor 27.5%; Liberal 54.1%; Greens 14.1%. The Liberals lead 59.0-41.0 after preferences, a swing of 22.5%.
• Another ReachTEL poll, this time targeting 1600 respondents in 11 seats in western Sydney on behalf of the Seven Network, inquired about Kevin Rudd’s popularity relative to Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott. Abbott led 64-36 over Gillard and 51-48 over Rudd, with enthusiasm for Rudd appearing to have cooled a little since ReachTEL conducted the same exercise three months ago. On that occasion, 42% said the return of Rudd would make them more likely to vote Labor against 25% for less likely. This time, the results were 36% and 31%.
• Roy Morgan has published a phone poll from a small sample of 475 respondents dealing mostly with party leadership, but also including voting intention results. The poll has the Coalition leading 59-41 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 26% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens, remembering that the margin of error here is 4.5%. Further evidence of a Coalition-skewed sample came with a 47-35 lead for Tony Abbott over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, and a 27-65 approval/disapproval split for Gillard against 41-51 for Abbott. The poll also offered detailed material on preferred Labor and Liberal leader. Kevin Rudd led for Labor with 33% support against 14% for Julia Gillard, 11% for Bill Shorten and 10% for Stephen Smith. Tony Abbott did similarly poorly for preferred Liberal leader, finishing third with 18% behind Malcolm Turnbull on 47% and Joe Hockey on 19%.
• Roy Morgan has also scoured through two years of its polling to provide the “top 10 professions more likely to vote for each party”. This shows Labor’s base remains resolutely blue-collar, with the “new class” professions dominating the Greens list. Defence force members topped the Liberal list with police in sixth place, managers and finance industry types also featuring prominently.
Seat of the week: Blaxland
The western Sydney seat of Blaxland has been held by Labor without interruption since its creation in 1949, and provided Paul Keating with a seat throughout a parliamentary career lasting from 1969 to 1996. The electorate currently extends from Bankstown in the south through Bass Hill and Regents Park to Guildford in the north. The area is marked by a strong Arabic presence, especially around Guildford, together with a large Turkish community around Auburn and concentrations of Chinese and Vietnamese at Fairfield East and Regents Park. The two strongest areas for the Liberals, Woodpark and Guildford West in the electorate’s north-western corner and Bass Hill and Georges Hall in the south, are middle-income and contain the highest proportion of English speakers. The abolition of a neighbouring electorate to the north caused the electorate to be substantially redrawn at the 2010 election, adding 24,000 of the abolished electorate’s voters around Auburn South together with 14,000 at Bankstown in the south (which had been removed from the electorate in the 2007 redistribution). Transferred out of the electorate were 20,000 voters around Cabramatta to the west and 18,000 around Greenacre to the south.
Blaxland’s greatest moment of electoral interest came with its inauguration at the 1949 election, when Jack Lang attempted to move to the new seat after winning Reid as a Labor renegade in 1946. He failed, and the seat has since been won for Labor by margins of never less than 8.8%. James Harrison held the seat for the 20 years before the arrival of Paul Keating, who was succeeded at a 1996 by-election by Michael Hatton. Hatton’s career proved rather less illustrious than his predecessor’s, and he was dumped by the party’s national executive ahead of the 2007 election. The ensuing preselection was won by the Right-backed Jason Clare, a Transburban executive and former advisor to NSW Premier Bob Carr, who prevailed over constitutional law expert George Williams and Bankstown mayor Tania Mihailuk. Clare suffered what by Sydney standards was a modest 4.4% swing at the 2010 election, reducing the margin to 12.2%, but the electorate’s five corresponding state seats swung by between 13.8% and 20.3% at the state election the following March, with Granville and East Hills falling to the Liberals and Bankstown, Auburn and Fairfield remaining with Labor.
Jason Clare won promotion to parliamentary secretary in 2009, and then to the outer ministry after the 2010 election in the defence materiel portfolio. He shifted to home affairs and justice in December 2011, further recovering defence materiel after Kevin Rudd’s failed leadership bid the following February. He was promoted to cabinet as cabinet secretary in the February 2013 reshuffle which followed the retirement announcements of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans, again trading in defence materiel while maintaining home affairs and justice. His Liberal opponent is Anthony Khouri, a local businessman of Lebanese extraction who together with his brothers founded custom-made luxury car manufacturer Bufori. ReachTEL has twice conducted automated phone polls showing Khouri in the lead, by 54-46 in March and 52-48 in June.
nemspy.
horsehockey.
Zoidlord
I was talking about how accurate the polls were in the US, not the merits of the government.
On another matter, the Morgan poll on occupations is interesting.
Defense Force members are the most pro Liberal of any occupation.
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/party-vote-by-professions-december-2012-201306140318
nemspy.
Ditto, absolute HH.
ruddspy fer merde-och, it’s palpable, eh Dio ?
[current parlous state of the Australian media – including News Ltd, the Guardian and the ABC]
Oh, come on Player One.
A glance through postings on the G-Oz’s Election 2013 site identifies a considerable number of articles on issues that have
(1) been ignored by Oz print media or
(2) raised only after the G-Oz ones appeared or
(3) if raised, were slanted opinion pieces from the usual suspects
In addition, this week, Guardian: Australia published the first piece of truly investigative journalism (ie, one referenced to actual documents, interviews etc) we’ve seen in a very long time
Egyptian Interpol says Sayed Abdellatif is not wanted on murder charges: Interpol officials say asylum seekers’ 1999 convictions related to being party to a conspiracy to topple Hosni Mubarak
thereby blowing apart the Opposition’s, security services’ etc lies (inc to the Senate Inquiry) about a “convicted jihadist terrorist”; leading to the withdrawal of the charges:
[The removal of the charges follows an investigation carried out by Guardian Australia in both Egypt and Australia. Guardian Australia contacted the office of the Egyptian presidency in the early hours of the morning on Friday (AEST) to seek clarity on the nature of Abdellatif’s convictions, following interviews with Abdellatif’s lawyers and verification of court documents that showed Abdellatif’s convictions made no mention of murder or explosives possession.
After Guardian Australia’s inquiry to the Egyptian presidency, as well as the presentation of court appeal documents to presidential officials, the Egyptian ministry of foreign affairs contacted Egyptian Interpol to seek clarity on Abdellatif’s case – which was followed by the removal of the most serious charges.
On Wednesday, deputy commissioner Peter Drennan, who gave the original evidence at Senate estimates on 30 May when details of the red notice were first made public, said that if the charges of murder and bomb possession were incorrect he would “notify all the parties concerned of the correct contents of the red notice, certainly including Mr Abdellatif himself, and other relevant agencies. We’d also be writing formally to Interpol and Egyptian authorities expressing our concern in relation to the inaccuracy this position has placed Mr Abdellatif and ourselves in.”]
It took a while for SBS to run the story, and until today for Oz print-media (Fairfax) to run a story – which, I might add, failed to acknowledge the Guardian as the source of what, without that acknowledgement & permission, is serious plagiarism as bad as Julie Bishop’s, for which Fairfax really caned her!
The last such investigative journalism I recall in Oz print media occurred during the dying stages of the Howard government, concerning disgraceful and (in at least three cases, with considerable financial disadvantage to Aussie taxpayers), detention, political & police over-reactions, deliberate over-reaction, lying and verbal abuse of a QLD-based doctor, a NSW Muslim, a woman who was an Australian citizen of German birth & others.
Rigorous investigation of any wrong-doing, which couldn’t be used to boost the Opposition & undermine Labor Governments, seem to have waned after 24/11/07 and disappeared after Election2010.
Well, it’s been revived. By The Guardian: Australia. Small steps so far (& that includes literacy & use of mature language). Being addressed, by a newspaper, in print, as an intelligent adult, not an easily-persuadable minor, is welcome step forward!
So at least try to be honest in evaluating what’s happened so far.
[davidwh
Posted Saturday, June 15, 2013 at 10:33 am | Permalink
Labor may just about win under Rudd however I’m not sure what that achieves in the long run for Labor. How stable would Rudd#2 be? Would it just delay renewal similar to what happened in the Libs?]
David
I don’t believe that Rudd would have much show of winning. But at least he could substantially minimize the damage. A manageable loss of say ten to twelve seats and not too much damage in the senate would help keep a tight rein on Abbott’s wrecking ball.
I believe it is very important to preserve the legacy of this government and Julia Gillard, but if Abbott ends up with something like a 25 – 30 seat buffer he will be emboldened to get into things like double dissolutions to get his way. With things much closer I don’t think he would have the guts to risk it, especially if the economy starts to worsen, as expected, under his policies.
WOW, pretty weird to come to a polling blog and have most bloggers say polling is just crap. Maybe the blog should just be called “Bludger”.
[As opposed to here on PB where if they go down for the ALP they are “fake, fantasies, a media conspiracy, Rupert Murdoch is in the country” where if they improve for a week it is a “trend”. ]
Precisely.
I know it may be hard for you to follow, but the polls are clearly pump-primed in the week before they are conducted.
This week it was to be All-Rudd-All-The-Time, but Gillard changed the subject, and the Liberal Party, their shills on the airwaves and the brave boys in the ADF helped her prove her point to a “T”.
They’re trying again today with the Rudd business, but all they could muster was John Murphy, a has-been backbencher from Sydney, and a routine denial by Howes that he instructs MPs how to vote (I’m not saying he doesn’t instruct them, but he’s hardly likely to admit it, hence my use of the word “routine”).
From this The Australian and the Daily Telegraph, fresh from mind-focusing editorial bloodshed at other Murdoch papers, have tried to resurrect the set-piece agenda. The articles therein are written mostly for the benefit of Nervous Nellies in the Caucus, not for the public.
What PvO is admitting is that the weekly news cycle, usually controlled by his news organization can set the tone of the weekend Newspolls. Let that sink in.
He’s lamenting that there may be an uptick for Gillard and Labor due to some “sympathy” vote. But he says it’s not real… just as I say the setting up of the polls with negativiy through the week isn’t rel, either.
For once we’ve had a policy debate, of sorts, from the government. Despite Rudd’s and his media patrons’ best efforts, Gillard was able to force the tired old meme of Ruddstoration off the front pages ande put her own agenda on them instead. She gave an object lesson in sexism, with illustrations of the varied ways in which it can occur, every day of the past week.
This is policy. It’s not the “gender card”. This week’s proceedings were evidence enough that sexism is alive and well in Australia.
The media has tried to pick holes in her argument, by citing “abortion” as one of those “WTF” distractions from a “desperate” PM. But since then, several writers have noted that abbott doesn’t have an abortion policy except that it should be “Safe, Cheap and Rare”.
But he does have abortion form. The last time anyone in the federal government had a chance to impose his personal views on abortion was when Abbott nixed RU486.
For God’s sake, the man’s a devout Catholic, under the thralland protection (somewhat devalued of late) of George Pell. He goes to secret dinners with him at the Chartwell Society meetings. Abbott is a very conservative, religion-orientated politician. It’s a worthwhile question to ask just what he would do on matters related to abortion, especially abortion funding and as regards abortions funded with Austraian foreign aid. It’s not a “Card”. It’s a proper issue to bring up.
Neither is gender a “card”. The disgraceful happenings this week have made Australian men – including myself and yourself – suspect at home and a laughing stock abroad.
Journalists, mostly male, can dismiss the importance of this subject all they like, but I suspect the mockery we’ve seen is in large part because they are male, and because changing the subject from Rudd wasn’t in the plan at all for last week.
What we supposed to see was Rudd being mobbed everywhere he went. The “crowds” turned out to be a gaggle of a dozen or so boganish looking bods shouting that they loved him, following him everywhere he went, framed tightly in the cameras’ viewfinders for the nightly news. There was even mention here, by Morpheus (no friend of Gillard), that some of the cheer squad was bussed in.
the most important implicit admission in PvO’s short column was that polls can be manipulated by spot events. If Gillard can gain a blippish sympathy vote by seeding a sexism debate then seizing the opportunity to follow-up on it with subsequent illustrative events, the the converse applies too: the polls can be negatively affected by a concerted bad news campaign.
QED, as far as I am concerned.
Which is why I started this post out with the word “Precisely”.
@Dio/102
Of course you were… *sigh*.
I think you missed the point.
Kevin17 if Newspoll comes in at say 53/47 attitudes will change. Also I think only a minority question the polling. A bigger group question their relevance this far from an election.
BK @ 4061 previous thread:
The Army chief has my deepest admiration. I spent 20 years in uniform and know what it feels like to be targeted. I was a non-drinker (then); sexuality is often used as a tool by men with small dicks (Jedi Council – SERIOUSLY ???) against men and women they want to abuse.
The video of the Army chief is inspiring. No wonder the Yanks are going all ga ga over it. The “Tailhook’ scandal (US Navy) was the prime example of the feeling of privilege that these guys have. The reaction by Morrison reminds me of only one other high-ranking officer in the Defence Forces – Angus Houston, a man of the highest moral calibre. The rest, in my opinion have been ineffective and/or insincere in their attitude to reform.
Following last month’s announcement of Ford’s factory shutdowns in October 2016, Holden said the car manufacturing industry would be able to survive – but was dependent on “consistent and globally competitive government support”.
Federal opposition industry spokeswoman Sophie Mirabella said earlier in the week: “We have to end this embarrassing cap-in-hand approach to government and secret deals behind closed doors.”
This comment only provides further evidence of the lack of any understanding of car industry subsidies. Germany subsidise at about $265 per taxpayer, USA around $75 per taxpayer, Australia – around $18.
This lack of understanding of what Govt should be doing to keep the Aust car manufacturing providing jobs is never understood by the Liberals. Their plan would be to slash workers wages while supporting pay increases for the company executives.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/companies/holden-workers-asked-to-take-pay-cut/story-fnda1bsz-1226664050759#ixzz2WIjvuaAR
Rudd has only himself to blame for the hapless puppeteering of his position.
Rudd = Murdoch.
He is for Murdoch.
He is in Murdoch’s back pocket.
[What we supposed to see was Rudd being mobbed everywhere he went. The “crowds” turned out to be a gaggle of a dozen or so boganish looking bods shouting that they loved him, following him everywhere he went, framed tightly in the cameras’ viewfinders for the nightly news. There was even mention here, by Morpheus (no friend of Gillard), that some of the cheer squad was bussed in.]
Ah, good old manipulation of SWAT codes, eh? 😉
Seriously, though, I totally agree that the “Rudd being mobbed thing” is overblown but do you really not believe that he’d stand a much better chance against Abbott than Gillard does?
The abortion thing is an interesting one. As a moderate conservative this is one of the primary reasons I would never vote for Abbott. I was annoyed by RU486 and by the way he kept bringing up abortion as health minister. I was always very proud of the way JWH would lay the smackdown on Abbott’s murmurings about the issue with quick reminders to parliament that in Australia a woman decides what she does with her own body. This largely bipartisan stance in Australian politics was always gave me a great sense of pride while living in the USA where it was a big political talking point. The fact that it was almost totally off our political radar as a “bipartisan no-brainer” made me happy to be an Australian.
So, when Abbott became opposition leader I was none too pleased and promised never to vote for him. I don’t think he has a snowball’s chance in hell of getting any negative changes made surrounding abortion – the rank and file of the party would never allow it. What I can see is Abbott as PM starting an incremental shift further to the right that might make such things possible in 20 or 30 years. This is why I would consider a vote for Rudd with a completely changed ALP team. It would not be out of any great love for Rudd, but I would love to see the Abbott model discredited and the Coalition turn to the Turnbulls and the Hockeys to take the party I have always voted for in a direction palatable to me. I can live with a few years of Rudd leading to an epic wipeout for the ages to Turnbull, steering a more sensible Coalition, in a few years time.
AA
“”Liberal Policy???
It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they’ve been fooled. ~ Mark Twain””
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgjGWYZSVUA
They will try this AGAIN!.
Bushfire Bill.
….. and, I would add …. Absobluddylutely.
Diogs,
Gallop recently changed their methodology because they got the US election wrong.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/04/us-usa-gallup-review-idUSBRE95318Y20130604
As for our polls, last week one showed a swing to LNP, another showed a swing to Labor and others showed no change. Hardly, “Climate Chnage is real” science.
if you have few moments, this reminder of how Tony Abbott responds to a difficult line of questioning
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyY-xI6zgfk&sns=tw
Can we agree that this week’s Newspoll is going to either save Gillard or terminate her PMship once and for all?
If it comes in at 55/45 or better (perhaps even 56/44) I reckon she will be safe for another polling cycle – then, if there’s no swing back away from Labor in the polls for the next couple of weeks after that she will lead the ALP to the election.
If Newspoll comes in at 57/43 or 58/42 I predict Gillard will be gone within the week. Similarly, if a blip back toward Labor saves her this week, swings back out to the 57/43 territory in the following week will doom her.
Labor hates Kevin Rudd, they seem to be willing to cling to any meagre hope of an election win under Gillard to avoid a Ruddstoration; however, they have always done whatever it takes, at the end of the day, to avoid losing office. I just can’t see them slamming their collective foot down as the cliff-edge comes into view and doing a massive political Thelma & Louise & Julia.
Ruddspy fer Rupert Merde-och.
Every Flamin’ Time I see him Puppeted.
He is a marrionette fer that crimson murdoch pus-filled hate machine.
Hooray! The football season kicks off again after the bye. Six hours free of pondering on misogyny in society, leadership, etc. So it’s off to Subiaco to watch the mighty Fremantle machine slit the throats of the miserable Brisbane Lions – who we all know are gay.
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Saturday, June 15, 2013 at 11:26 am | Permalink
As for our polls, last week one showed a swing to LNP, another showed a swing to Labor and others showed no change. Hardly, “Climate Chnage is real” science.]
Yes, but there’s always statistical error involved. It would be one thing if Newspoll had it at 58/42 and Morgan had it at 50/50, but what we’ve got is a universe of different polls commissioned by different groups that, over the past couple of years, broadly point to the same thing.
It has been a transformative week
Sexism is now a live issue. Gender Card and political correctness are now rightly seen as the crutch for the bigots to hide behind.
This is live not just in politics but in sports and also in workplaces.
Thus it will be an interesting QT as the LNP tries to attack Labor and in particular the PM without being seen as sexist. This will mean they will have to do two things.
Start respecting Parliament Process more. The lack of respect to those processes reflects on the whole Parliament but the Speaker in particular who happens to be a woman. Thus a lack of respect is a lack of respect for a woman and will be seen as such.
Also the LNP will have to attack on policy and avoid rhetorical flourishes that impugns people on personality ground as again that is a lack of respect and ties into the lack of respect for a government led by a woman.
The same applies to any dumping of PMJG for Rudd. Its a boys club scared of a woman in power.
[Can we agree that this week’s Newspoll is going to either save Gillard or terminate her PMship once and for all?]
this sounds like the circle jerk of the Monday editorial phone-ins at The Australian.
Chris Mitchell booms “Can we agree that this week’s Newspoll is going to either save Gillard or terminate her PMship once and for all?”
and the highly paid cardigan wearing old white men, Liberal staffer rejects and pay-for-view columnists chorus “Yes we agree!”
Laurie Oakes is on the money as usual. But will Labor do the hard thing to try to save a dozen or two seats? Seems unlikely. It will be a sluaghter than benefits no one in Labor – not Gillard, not Rudd, not Shorten, not anyone over 30 years of age who has leadership aspirations.
[guytaur
Posted Saturday, June 15, 2013 at 11:29 am | Permalink
It has been a transformative week
Sexism is now a live issue. Gender Card and political correctness are now rightly seen as the crutch for the bigots to hide behind.]
I think the public will see both as being issues. “The gender card” is definitely played; however, sexism IS a live issue. Gillard, like any woman, has to deal with unacceptable sexist attitudes that just aren’t on (such as the menu, whomever may be responsible for that piece of immaturity). The question is, is the entire case against Gillard constructed around sexism? I don’t believe that’s the situation.
No.
Newspoll and Murdoch would like it to be that way, but it ain’t so.
Newspoll and its urgers have been claiming oracular, almost Delphic status since time was.
It’s not. It’s all over the place actually. Not worth the paper it’s printed on, either way, until Election Eve – and only Election Eve – Newspolls are compared against concrete voting numbers, and against other polls.
These are the only polls that can be verified as signalling (or otherwise) true voting intention, as they can be compared against true votes.
nemspy
Talking about abortion is not playing a gender card. This was the meme being run to protect Abbott from questions. Once the menu and Sattler destroyed that meme Abbott had to rule out supporting the DLP.
Big victory for women in general and PMJG in particular.
Nemspy,
And, anyone that has actually studied polls will tell you polls years out from an election mean bugger all.
I could point to the Sawford Poll which has a 95% accuracy for predicting election outcomes. But I’m sure you are far more interested in the confected atmospherics of Poll induced hysteria than actually studying the facts.
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/the-sawford-formula.html
@Nemspy/126
I don’t think it’s entire case around Gillard, but rather demonstrates, the wider issue.
It’s only been hidden or limited view point, primarily us males have hidden the issue.
Could not agree more about the television coverage of Rudd’s grand tours. If Rudd was truly being mobbed then there would be wide shots of the crowd, as there were when he really was mobbed in Brisbane shopping mall after failed leadership challenge last year.
Noticed the same when he was in Corio last week. In fact, he story ought to be that Rudd is NOT attracting the expected crowds!
[ Well, it’s been revived. By The Guardian: Australia. Small steps so far (& that includes literacy & use of mature language). Being addressed, by a newspaper, in print, as an intelligent adult, not an easily-persuadable minor, is welcome step forward!
So at least try to be honest in evaluating what’s happened so far. ]
I will go so far as to admit that the Guardian is the least worst of the three OM outlets serving up Australian political journalism – but that’s about all. They currently have a leadershit article on their site just like the other OM sites, quoting the usual bullshit from the usual “unnamed” sources.
Using longer words to report the same dreck doesn’t mean it’s any truer when they say it than when Limited News or the Abbott Broadcasting Coalition says it.
Yes, you could argue they are just reporting it because everyone else is, but that’s just another way of saying they are now just a part of the usual OM self-reinforcing leadershit circle-jerk. There is no actual analysis in the article in question. It’s just the same old “he said, she said” rubbish.
[ Bushfire Bill
Posted Saturday, June 15, 2013 at 11:33 am | Permalink
Can we agree that this week’s Newspoll is going to either save Gillard or terminate her PMship once and for all?
No.
Newspoll and Murdoch would like it to be that way, but it ain’t so.
Newspoll and its urgers have been claiming oracular, almost Delphic status since time was.
It’s not. It’s all over the place actually. Not worth the paper it’s printed on, either way, until Election Eve – and only Election Eve – Newspolls are compared against concrete voting numbers, and against other polls.
These are the only polls that can be verified as signalling (or otherwise) true voting intention, as they can be compared against true votes.]
OK so if Newspoll is so rigged, why did Murdoch not use his mighty powers during the 2010 election. Gillard did her number on Rudd and enjoyed a poll bounce, followed by a tapering-off that was pretty much right on the money about the final result. Where was the cloak and dagger work by News Ltd to make it look like everyone hated Gillard after the Rudd ousting. Why NOW and not in 2010? Why were the NSW and QLD results pretty much in line (or even slightly worse for Labor) than the polls?
BW
I think Marty spent most of his time at the LSE getting his english colloquial (lots of english speaking foreign students). I doubt he had to try too hard at the economics bit.
@daveyk317: “Australia is seen around the world as a land of sexist, racist, bullying troglodytes.” http://t.co/obsOy0emBb #SayNoToAbbott
Regardless of political colour, all governments have their good and bad points and by any measure, this one has been no worse than others have.
In terms of policy development and legislation it has been better than most. It has most certainly had its stuff ups and often its ability to sell policy has been highly questionable.
However, we should in balance remember that John Howard lost ten ministers in his first term and made a regrettable decision to send our country to war in Iraq based on a lie.
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Saturday, June 15, 2013 at 11:37 am | Permalink
Nemspy,
And, anyone that has actually studied polls will tell you polls years out from an election mean bugger all.
I could point to the Sawford Poll which has a 95% accuracy for predicting election outcomes. But I’m sure you are far more interested in the confected atmospherics of Poll induced hysteria than actually studying the facts.
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/the-sawford-formula.html%5D
What about Polls a few months from an election that come on the tail of years of consistency. I’ll agree that polls from mid 2011 mean bugger all for the election —IF— that was the last poll taken.
In the words of Thomas Jefferson
“The Government ought to be judged by how well it meets its legitimate objectives”
ALP achievements/bills since they came to office in 2007.
• NBN (the real one) – total cost $37.4b (Government contribution: $30.4b)
• BER 7,920 schools: 10,475 projects. (completed at less than 3% dissatisfaction rate)
• Gonski – Education funding reform
• NDIS/DisabilityCare
• MRRT & aligned PRRT
• Won seat at the UN
• Signed Kyoto
• Signatory to Bali Process & Regional Framework
• Eradicated WorkChoices
• Established Fair Work Australia
• Established Carbon Pricing/ETS (7% reduction in emissions since July last year)
• Established National Network of Reserves and Parks
• Created world’s largest Marine Park Network
• Introduced Reef Rescue Program
• National Apology
• Sorry to the Stolen Generation
• Increased Superannuation from 9 to 12%
• Changed 85 laws to remove discrimination against same sex couples
• Introduced National Plan to reduce violence against women and children
• Improvements to Sex Discrimination Act
• Introduced Plain packaging of cigarettes
• Legislated Equal pay (social & community workers up to 45% pay increases)
• Legislated Australia’s first Paid Parental Leave scheme
• Established $10b Renewable energy fund
• Legislated Murray/Darling Basin plan (the first in a hundred years of trying.)
• Increased Education funding by 50%
• Established direct electoral enrolment
• Created 190,000 more University places
• Achieved 1:1 ratio, computers for year 9-12 students
• Established My School
• Established National Curriculum
• Established NAPLAN
• Increased Health funding by 50%
• Legislated Aged care package
• Legislated Mental health package
• Legislated Dental Care package
• Created 90 Headspace sites
• Created Medicare Locals Program
• Created Aussie Jobs package
• Created Kick-Start Initiative (apprentices)
• Funded New Car plan (industry support)
• Created Infrastructure Australia
• Established Nation Building Program (350 major projects)
• Doubled Federal Roads budget ($36b) (7,000kms of roads)
• Rebuilding 1/3 of interstate rail freight network
• Committed more to urban passenger rail than any government since Federation
• Developed National Ports Strategy
• Developed National Land Freight Strategy
• Created the nations first ever Aviation White Paper
• Revitalized Australian Shipping
• Reduced transport regulators from 23 to 3 (saving $30b over 20years)
• Introduced NICS – infrastructure schedule
• Australia has moved from 20th in 2007 to 2nd on OECD infrastructure ranking
• Awarded International Infrastructure Minister of the Year (2012 Albanese)
• Awarded International Treasurer of the Year (2011 Swan)
• Introduced Anti-dumping and countervailing system reforms
• Legislated Household Assistance Package
• Introduced School Kids Bonus
• Increased Childcare rebate (to 50%)
• Allocated $6b to Social Housing (20,000 homes)
• Provided $5b to Support for Homelessness
• Established National Rental Affordability Scheme ($4.5b)
• Introduced Closing the Gap
• Supports Act of Recognition for constitutional change
• Provided the highest pension increase in 100 years
• Created 900,000 new jobs
• Established National Jobs Board
• Allocated $9b for skills and training over 5 years
• Established Enterprise Connect (small business)
• Appointed Australia’s first Small Business Commissioner
• Introduced immediate write-off of assets costing less than $6,500 for Sm/Bus
• Introduced $5,000 immediate write-off for Small Business vehicles over $6,500
• Introduced Small business $1m loss carryback for tax rebate from previous year
• Legislated Australian Consumer law
• Introduced a national levy to assist Queensland with reconstruction
• Standardized national definition of flood for Insurance purposes.
• Created Tourism 2020
• Completed Australia’s first feasibility study on high speed rail
• Established ESCAS (traceability and accountability in live animal exports)
• Established Royal Commission into Institutional Sexual Abuse
• Established National Crime Prevention Fund
• Lowered personal income taxes (Ave family now pays $3,500 less p.a. than 2007)
• Raised the tax-free threshold from $6,000 to $18,200
• Australia now the richest per capita nation on earth
• First time ever Australia has three triple A credit ratings from all three credit agencies
• Low inflation
• Lowest interest rates in 60 years (Ave mortgagee paying $5,000 less p.a. than 2007)
• Low unemployment
• Lowest debt to GDP in OECD
• Australian dollar is now fifth most traded in the world and IMF Reserve Currency
• One of the world’s best performing economies during and since the GFC
• Australia now highest ranked for low Sovereign Risk
• Overseen the largest fiscal tightening in nations history (4.4%)
• 21 years of continuous economic growth (trend running at around 3%pa)
• 11 years of continuous wages growth exceeding CPI
• Increasing Productivity
• Increasing Consumer Confidence
• Record foreign investment
• Historic levels of Chinese/Australian bilateral relations
• First female Prime Minister
• First female Governor General
• First female Attorney General
Bar Bar,
With Kevvie it is more rent a Kev.
Remember Kevvie launching his leadership challenge in Brisbane’s mainstreet on a Saturday morning.
All those thousands of mingling supporters were people who had gone shopping. The fact that Kevvie rocked up was neither here nor there.
This last week has certainly made me seriously consider my own attitudes towards women.
I’ve gone through my attitudes and behaviour trying to find points where, though well-meaning, I’ve been a total klutz, or where a woman I’ve been talking to might be thinking, “What a sexist jerk!”.
I found plenty of candidate occasions, as I think any man of a certain age would.
I’m not talking about political correctness, but about an absence of thoughtlessness in the way I behave around women.
Women are different to men, and we may thank God for it. Living a life would be a soulless wasteland if the difference, both physical and mental, wasn’t there.
But that’s different to denigration, or even casual habits, not meant to offend at all, that nevertheless can be offensive and can be taken that way.
It’s a minefield, for sure. And every now and again I confess I personally tread on some big mines.
In trying to be honest with myself I’ve tried to eliminate the ridiculous after first examining whether what I think is ridiculous is actually so. It’s an ongoing process, one that I fear I’ll never complete.
But the week that has just gone has made me think about my own attitudes towards gender and, in my opinion, that’s a good thing, because I found a few rough edges I’d like to smooth away.
[Sorry to hear about your circumstances. I hope you are not trying to fight all those battles alone. Do you have support from family and/or friends?]
Ta, Darn. Offspring looks after me very well, as does my one close relative in the same region. I’ve great friends.
I’m also used to fighting my own battles, having, as a 30yo married mother of a small child, gone through the QPS’s “Glass ceiling” (a term not yet invented) and copped heaps of the most aggressive, vicious & denigrating harassment: “neglecting your baby”, “Stealing food from children’s mouths”, “Demeaning you husband” because my salary was higher (tho he loved that: saved him having to study his way up the promotional ladder … more “shed” time :-)) were common, especially from threatened, less-qualified (and less well-paid) male staff/ members of community organisations of which OH was a member and, even worse, from their spiteful wives.
OTOH, OH was most supportive of me & my career, continued (full-fee+ v expensive books etc) PostGrad addiction, absences in libraries/ attending conferences – even my (& his own) solo trips interstate & abroad. We were both very independent people who enjoyed our own company & pursuits – with few of the latter in common (inc great architecture, archaeology & Romans, bushwalking, travel, environmental protection, antiques, politics & non-fiction). He was the “Tradie”, maker & collector of Boys’ Toys, with the most envied (& used by mates) “shed” in town; Brunel & steam “nutter”; maker of superb “live” model engines; I the theatre, concert, ballet, art gallery etc tragic.
I never fully recovered from 1982’s devastating Flu epidemic (off to HK, I had flu shots in Jan & was assured by GP they covered me) which apparently triggered rogue genes; OH came from a family in which death at 78 was considered “dying young”, so he’d well & truly outlive me.
As he was dying, we spoke with a great deal of mutual back-slapping & “remember when” about our dedication to & happiness in ensuring each other’s dreams all came true.
Like Albert Facey, I’m an optimist who’s had “A Fortunate Life”.
Remember a 52-48 (to Labor) Newspoll was supposed to have saved Rudd, until he was rolled immediately afterwards. These days governments do know about things like multi-poll aggregates; Labor insiders would have a fair idea that if the next Newspoll is 54-46 that they don’t really have it that close, and that a bounce up from 58 to say 56 just means the last one was excessive. A given major poll is just part of the picture.
Some incredibly clever analyst has remarked that JG now has more support in her cabinet than in the caucus as a whole.
Since the Rudd supporters (mostly) resigned from cabinet…
[If Rudd was truly being mobbed then there would be wide shots of the crowd, ]
Hello – no politician ever gets a crowd in normal circumstances. They go to shopping malls and schools because people are already there.
All this says is the Rudd is media savvy and has good media advisors, while the PM has shit ones, who shouldve been sacked 2 years ago.
[AussieAchmed
Posted Saturday, June 15, 2013 at 11:46 am | Permalink
Regardless of political colour, all governments have their good and bad points and by any measure, this one has been no worse than others have.
In terms of policy development and legislation it has been better than most. It has most certainly had its stuff ups and often its ability to sell policy has been highly questionable. ]
Unfortunately we partisans (even though I wont vote for Abbott, I consider myself a Coalition supporter) will always view “policy development and legislation’ favourably or unfavourably depending on how much these policies gel with our own political stripes or, depressingly, based upon whether or not it was our mob who implemented them. (Just once I’d love for people from both sides of the political trench to admit that at least half of the loathing of policies is generated by who thought them up rather than the merits of the particular policy). I’d honestly be curious to hear from some actual swing voters views on policy but I suspect very few genuine swing voters spend much time frequenting political blogs such as this one.
Greensborough Growler@129
Sawford isn’t a poll, it’s a post-hoc correlation.
There are lots of these things about. You take the results of past elections and a bunch of indicators, find a pattern that unites them all and announce that that pattern is predictive. But often they are not and there is a great danger of “overfitting” by describing incidental characters of the past and not factors that are actually causative. Howard along similar lines banged on in 2006-7 about the historical preconditions for a transfer of government not existing. Didn’t save him.
BB
That is political correctness. Not what the likes of Bolt claim it is. Its emphasise. Try not to hurt people through ignorance. That is all.
It is not men subjugating themselves to woman and being emasculated as a result.
[Remember a 52-48 (to Labor) Newspoll was supposed to have saved Rudd, until he was rolled immediately afterwards. These days governments do know about things like multi-poll aggregates; Labor insiders would have a fair idea that if the next Newspoll is 54-46 that they don’t really have it that close, and that a bounce up from 58 to say 56 just means the last one was excessive. A given major poll is just part of the picture.]
Let’s just say that Kevin Bonham has a vested interest in using polls to predict the future.
The idea that Newspoll controls political events in Canberra is just The Australian trying to convince people that they have influence when of course they don’t.
Both major parties for the most part can tell their arse from their elbow in relation to what’s happening out there
Guytaur, what do you mean? I couldn’t quite see what you’re getting at.